The Observer leads with a new poll by Opinium that reveals fewer than one in five of the British public believe the lockdown should be lifted. 67% of people think schools should remain closed, against only 17% who think they should reopen. Just 11% think it’s time to reconsider reopening restaurants, with 78% against, while only 9% think pubs should reopen, with 81% against. When it comes to sporting events, 84% are against allowing mass gatherings to take place, with just 7% in favour.
Unfortunately, that poll isn’t an outlier. A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times found that just 25% of adults would feel safe returning to work and the public opposes reopening schools by 48% to 28%. And 59% of people polled by the Sunday Express said they would not feel comfortable going out and don’t plan to resume a normal life any time soon.
It’s official. We’re a nation of bedwetters. As Benjamin Franklin said, “Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.”
And it isn’t just us. In America, the lockdown zealots are on the march, having got the hashtag #extendthelockdown trending on Twitter. New York Times journalist Taylor Lorenz has been banging the drum for this cause, tweeting: “The ‘open up the economy’ people are truly the dumbest ppl on here. How do they think the economy will look when millions are dead and our hospitals are overwhelmed? If u want to ‘save the economy’ then u need to keep everyone *alive.*”
Among the “dumbest ppl” expressing scepticism about the effectiveness of the lockdown policy is Michael Levitt, Professor of Structural Biology at Stanford and the winner of the Nobel Prize for Chemistry in 2013. Levitt has given a great interview to Freddie Sayers at UnHerd pouring scorn on lockdown advocates and their scientific handmaidens. Among the points he makes is that the total number of deaths we are seeing in places as different as New York City, parts of England, parts of France and Northern Italy all seem to level out at a very similar fraction of the total population. “Are they all practising equally good social distancing?” he asks. “I don’t think so.” He points out that the lifecycle of the virus, wherever it has broken out, is remarkably similar, regardless of local differences and irrespective of whether lockdowns have been imposed or not. In particular, after a two week period of exponential growth infections and deaths tail off, meaning the projections of Neil Ferguson and other modellers, which assume constant exponential growth absent a lockdown, are vast overestimates. And worth bearing in mind that so far Levitt’s death toll estimates have been much more accurate than Professor Ferguson’s.
Here’s one of the interview highlights:
I think the policy of herd immunity is the right policy. I think Britain was on exactly the right track before they were fed wrong numbers. And they made a huge mistake. I see the standout winners as Germany and Sweden. They didn’t practise too much lockdown and they got enough people sick to get some herd immunity. I see the standout losers as countries like Austria, Australia and Israel that had very strict lockdown but didn’t have many cases. They have damaged their economies, caused massive social damage, damaged the educational year of their children, but not obtained any herd immunity. There is no doubt in my mind that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor.
One of the most interesting sections of the interview is when Levitt explains why epidemiologists’ predictions tend to be so apocalyptic. The reason, he says, is because if they underestimate the death toll likely to result from a viral outbreak they face catastrophic reputational damage – if people die, they get the blame – but if they overestimate it they face zero consequences. “In my work, if I say a number is too small and I’m wrong, or a number is too high and I’m wrong, both of those errors are the same,” he says. “It seems that being a factor of 1,000 too high is perfectly okay in epidemiology, but being a factor of three too low is too low.”
Worth reminding ourselves that Neil Ferguson’s estimates of the impact of previous viral outbreaks – which have been almost comically inaccurate – haven’t damaged his scientific reputation in the slightest. In 2001, he predicted that foot and mouth disease could kill up to 50,000 people. It ended up killing less than 200. In 2005, he told the Guardian that up to 200 million people could die from bird flu. The final death toll from avian flu strain A/H5N1 was 440. And in 2009, a Government estimate based on one of Ferguson’s models estimated the likely death toll from swine flu at 65,000. In fact, it was 457.
Just in case the Government’s anointed scientific experts haven’t done quite enough to scare the bejesus out of people, another group of experts is intending to shadow the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies and publish what looks to be even more cautious advise. According to the Sunday Times, the former Chief Scientific Advisor to the British Government, Sir David King, will chair the group, which is meeting for the first time tomorrow. “It is expected to focus on seven key areas,” says the report. “These include the criteria being used to lift the lockdown, how testing and tracing can be achieved, whether the policies on quarantine and the shielding of vulnerable groups are sufficient and how untapped resources can be better deployed.”
Whether the existing lockdown is sufficient?!? God give me strength.
Incidentally, it’s probably a good idea to watch Professor Levitt’s interview ASAP because there’s a risk YouTube will take it down. Yesterday, the video platform deleted David Icke’s channel, telling the BBC it had “clear policies prohibiting any content that disputes the existence and transmission of COVID-19 as described by the WHO and the NHS”.
The censorious attitude of the tech giants – and the gatekeepers of the mainstream media – to anyone who challenges official Covid orthodoxy is reminiscent of the suppression of dissent in totalitarian societies. A reader pointed me towards this quote by Friedrich Hayek:
The situation in a totalitarian state is permanently and in all fields the same as it is elsewhere in some fields in wartime. Everything which might cause doubt about the wisdom of the government or create discontent will be kept from the people. The basis of unfavourable comparisons with conditions elsewhere, the knowledge of possible alternatives to the course actually taken, information which might suggest failure on the part of the government to live up to its promises or to take advantage of opportunities to improve conditions, will be suppressed.
Friedrich Hayek, The road to Serfdom
Yesterday I flagged up the fact that America had endured a bad bout of seasonal flu in 1967 that killed 100,000 people – more Americans than COVID-19 has killed so far – and managed to cope without placing its citizens under virtual house arrest. A reader has drawn my attention to this piece in the National Review about how America responded to what was referred to in 1968 as “Hong Kong flu”, which, needless to say, didn’t involve closing schools or shutting down businesses or imposing stay-at-home orders. As an article in the American Institute for Economic Research pointed out, Woodstock took place during that flu outbreak. And the Telegraph ran a similar piece yesterday, pointing out that the British authorities responded to the same pandemic without over-reacting, recommending hand-washing and social distancing at work but nothing more. Both pieces drew on an article in the British Medical Journal by a retired professor of medicine called Philip Philip Snashall, whose two-year-old daughter was the first known case of Hong Kong flu to hit Europe. “How things change,” he noted. “The stock market did not plummet, we were not besieged by the press, men in breathing apparatus did not invade my daughter’s play group.”
It’s not all bad news in today’s papers. The Mail on Sunday reports that the Royal College of GPs and the British Medical Association have warned the Government against quarantining healthy people aged 70 and over when the lockdown is eased – and a furious row has broken out between Matt Hancock and the Sunday Times, which has the same story, in which the Health Secretary disputes that quarantining the elderly for 12 weeks is official Government policy. “The clinically vulnerable, who are advised to stay in lockdown for 12 weeks, emphatically DO NOT include all over 70s,” he tweeted above a screen grab of the Sunday Times‘s front page.
Here’s a quick round up of stories that have stood out for me, and been flagged up by readers, in the past 24 hours:
- ‘The science is becoming clear: lockdowns are no longer the right medicine‘ – Op Ed in the Sunday Times by John Ioannidis and Rohan Silva
- ‘Wuhan virus lab “cover-up”‘ – Story in the Mail on Sunday about lax security at the Wuhan Virology Institute
- ‘Is evidence rising that Britain’s lockdown could be a deadly mistake?‘ – Great column in the Telegraph by Sherelle Jacobs
- ‘I’ve worked the coronavirus front line – and I say it’s time to start opening up‘ – Op Ed by a New York City ER doctor in the New York Post
- ‘We’re destroying the nation’s wealth – and the health of millions‘ – Peter Hitchens, an early sceptic, in the Mail on Sunday
- ‘Protesters in London take part in group hug in defiance of coronavirus lockdown outside Met Police headquarters‘ – Story about a small protest in the Evening Standard
- ‘GCHQ granted extended powers to demand data from the NHS during the COVID-19 crisis‘ – Story in Computing about the intelligence-gathering hub being given extended powers by Matt Hancock
- ‘Why do we clap the NHS, yet take the success of the private sector for granted?‘ – Good column in the Telegraph by Dan Hannan
- ‘Capitalism 1, Big Government 0‘ – Entertaining column in the Critic by the always amusing David Starkey pointing out that privately-run supermarkets addressed critical shortages much better than the publicly-run NHS
In what may be becoming a series, here’s another letter in the Telegraph about the wrongful diagnosis of COVID-19 as the cause of death in a care home:
Sir – My mother died last week in a care home at the age of 98. When my brother registered her death, as expected the cause given was “frailty due to old age”, but he was surprised to see that the doctor certifying the death had added “presumed COVID-19”, an inclusion that also shocked the home’s manager.
The day before our mother died, my brother was allowed to sit with her for an hour. His temperature was checked before he was admitted, but there was no form of isolation and none of the home’s staff were wearing personal protective equipment.
If doctors are attributing all deaths in care homes to COVID-19, it makes a nonsense of any statistics and does great reputational damage to both individual care homes and to the care industry as a whole.
Tony Parkinson, Christchurch, Dorset
And for a bit of light relief, there’s a story in the Sunday Times about how the lockdown has given an unexpected boon to amateur pornographers (‘Debbie does lockdown: coronavirus home porn goes viral‘.) “Data from Pornhub, the world’s most popular video-sharing website, suggests COVID-19 is far from a turn-off for libidos inflamed by the sight of a mask or the thought of a police officer hiding in the bushes,” says the paper. “It has reported more than 8.2 million searches for videos about ‘quarantine’, with overall viewership up by about 25% since lockdowns were introduced.’ Wannabe porn stars have to apply to be verified by the website, but after they’ve received Pornhub’s imprimatur they can then upload their videos and are paid when the clips are viewed. The site now boasts more than 165,000 amateur performers, up 41% in the past year. According to the Sunday Times: “Popular themes in the coronavirus genre include ‘doctors and nurses’ inspecting ‘patients’; women performing sexual acts in return for loo paper or dried pasta; and police officers turning up at opportune moments.”
Another candidate for Hero of the Week has been nominated by a reader: Plants Galore, a company that has garden centres in Plymouth, Exeter and Newton Abbott. Not only has this company defied the lockdown order, arguing that their garden centres are also hardware stores and therefore should be exempt, it has also started a petition to try and stop the local council shutting down its outlets. The petition has already attracted over 3,500 signatures, including mine. Thanks to CBird for flagging this up in the comment thread below yesterday’s Latest News.
Readers have suggested more theme tunes for the site: ‘Heaven Knows I’m Miserable Now‘ by the Smiths, ‘No Restrictions‘ by Men at Work, Thomas Tallis’s ‘Spem Alium‘ by Stile Antico and ‘I’m a Lazy Sod‘ by the Sex Pistols.
Thanks to those who donated to this site yesterday. If you feel like donating, you can do so by clicking here. (Every little helps!) And if you want to flag up any stories or links I should include in tomorrow’s update, you can email me here. See you tomorrow.
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Peoples’ abject terror seems the insurmountable obstacle at the moment. One of my friends here in South Carolina has spent the last six weeks not leaving her house. She orders her groceries, and when they arrive she lets them sit in the carport for three days before dousing them with disinfectant and allowing them in the house. She complains that “people aren’t wearing masks!!!” without ever having left her premises to verify this fact. (It’s true. But how would she know?) This, in a state of 5,000,000 people that has had 6400 confirmed covid cases and 267 deaths. Over a period of two months. You couldn’t catch coronavirus if you wanted to, because cases are rare as hens’ teeth. To be sure, plenty of people aren’t afraid. Our neighborhood streets are teeming with walkers, children on bicycles, joggers. (So many people have taken up jogging! Even me! Because what else is there to do!) What I’m sincerely hoping is that the henny pennies who genuinely believe that they are preserving their very lives by hiding under their beds are actually not the overwhelming majority that polls suggest, and that those brave souls who venture out now will venture further as… Read more »
Reds under the beds now replaced by virus not my house.
I tried to hold the door of a local shop -as you do- for a couple waiting outside.
The man frowned at me while his wife said ‘no need’.
Yesterday a large overweight bloke pulled a disapproving face as I approached his trolley at the milk display in the local supermarket.
The only cheery greeting I can recall was from a smiling elderly man who grinned and said ‘I’m not dangerous!’ as we passed last week in the supermarket.
What a rare pleasure! I laughed and agreed that I posed no viral threats either.
What a sorry lot we have become.
Ha. I live in a tiny town in the middle of the wilderness – our county has had zero cases – and the pizza delivery guy showed up wearing a mask – I had forgotten to put mine on to answer the door and I said, “Oh, I’m sorry, I’ll get mine” and he whipped his off and said, “No need, not worried.”
It made my day.
I told a guy to “fucking behave and go him if you’re that scared” when he tutted, rolled his eyes and shook his head at my daughter for not getting out his way fast enough today. I’m no longer going to not speak up in the face of irrational behaviour.
Hopefully the survey was conducted on landlines. Only scared shut-ins answered while everyone else was out cycling or jogging or walking or sat in the garden or whatever.
You laugh but deliberate oversampling is a standard means of gerrymandering polls to get the desired result.
Why were all the polls so outrageously wrong about Trump’s 2016 campaign? Because they deliberately over-sampled Democrats (most probably to try and discourage Republicans).
The real question now is why anyone still pays attention to polls when we know they are totally manipulated?
Why do we listen to the doom-mongers when they’ve predicted the end of the world every year since 1843?
I took at trip to the local Co-op yesterday. It was operating a one in, one out system so there was queue outside.
An elderly gentleman came to queue behind me without a care in the world for the 2m ‘safety zone’. We had a good chat about the craziness of the situation.
As the doctor said, If you are Asymptomatic that means you are ‘healthy’.
Unfortunately they are the overwhelming majority. Or they are in the UK. Before this debacle I considered myself on the left of mainstream politics. I’ve just read a Twitter thread about a (very minor) protest against the lockdown outside a central London police station. The abuse aimed at the people involved was horrific, and coming principally from – I’m embarrassed to say – the left. Ironically they are calling lockdown sceptics fascists, tyrants, dictators in case we go out and breathe on them, Two things: a) breathing on someone wouldn’t do anything otherwise we’d all be dead, or ill, already and b) if they don’t want people to breathe on them they can stay indoors. They are free to do that and I wouldn’t want to deny them that liberty. Their intolerance is mind-boggling and their wilful blindness as to who are the real dictators just paradoxical. After the last GE I disassociated myself from the left and, boy, am I glad now. BTW, up until 20th March when they closed the pubs I was drinking every night in my watering hole, probably at the time when the virus was at its most potent given the peak was 8th April,… Read more »
Don’t worry these people aren’t the left. They’re the ‘left’. Not that you can tell them that worth a damn.
They’re the left the thinking gear behind -too busy dishing it out.
“The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly – it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over.”
― Joseph Goebbels
Lockdown theme:
https://genius.com/The-police-every-breath-you-take-lyrics
Also see Josef Stalin’s “one big lie” concept. Every evil dictator in history has made use of constantly repeated slogans to brainwash the masses, or at least trik enough of the masses into thinking the rest have al been brainwashed to be pro-state and that any resistance would be futile. Any time someone tells you to “stay safe” tell them “life without liberty ain’t worth living”.
Quite agree. Well said
We truly love Big Brother. It’s good that you posted that Hayek quote. He is often misunderstood as having been suggesting, in The Road to Serfdom, that any government intervention in the economy or society was an inevitable slippery-slop towards totalitarianism. It’s not that, at all. His point is much more subtle: you can have a society of equality of outcome where everybody is safe and protected from risk, but that will be a society of serfs, because it will not be a free society. The point being, you can have freedom or you can have security and equality. Not both – they have to be traded off against each other. We are seeing that dynamic currently being played out before our eyes. Sadly – horrifyingly, to me – it seems most people prefer a serf life free from risk to one that is genuinely free. Side question: I am not sure if anybody caught Andrew Lilico’s terrific column in the Torygraph the other day? https://t.co/xswkuA45x6?amp=1 As the father of a 3 year old and with another on the way I found it truly moving, and deeply scary at the same time. It is intolerable to imagine raising my children… Read more »
Of course the serfs will NOT have a risk-free life (despite giving up their independence and freedom): that is impossible.
I think I may need to move to Sweden.
You can still go there, legally, until December 31st. But don’t rely on getting a flight before then. You may need a sailing boat.
I can still go there legally after 31st December if I fill in a few forms ;o)
Might be worth thinking about.
I wonder if we can declare ourselevs to be refugees fleeing an oppressive government.
I was considering this possibility too – pity it has such long cold winters! Now feeling very envious of the intrepid souls featured in Ben Fogle’s 2 series ‘A New Life in the Wild’.
Where are you thinking of moving? Belarus might be nice. I wouldn’t recommend France where parents are terrified of sending their children back to school when we officially start to open up on the 11th of May, and many social distancing measures will remain in place.
I would guess that once the lockdown is eased and people start mingling again (on the London Tube, I doubt they ever stopped), all this will gradually fade away. This country is too crowded to maintain “social distancing” forever, and when there aren’t scenes reminiscent of the Black Death everywhere, more and more people will shrug it off and go back to normal.
If everyone is still afraid of their own shadows in a year’s time, then you’d be more than justified in moving elsewhere.
I personally cannot wait to be able to resume my travels. I had a trip up the east coast of America booked, which I had to cancel, and another booked in August. I don’t want to cancel it, but we’ll see. I don’t want to remain cooped up much longer.
I still believe in people’s own need to self-preserve financially speaking – and that should eventually force them outside by hook or by crook.
And then, I hope, they’ll see sense and you’ll be right.
His articles are really good! The Torygraph seems to have the most sceptical lilt of the major papers – they seem to be doing some digging into Ferguson. I am childless but still horrified at this sinister ‘new normal’ being pushed. I feel very sorry for the children, although I’ve noticed locally that the teenagers are still managing to find ways to meet up… It is anti-human and I can’t see how permanent social distancing is practical in society or in the workplace.
Amazed to say, having spent the last 3 and a bit years as a remainer, the Telegraph is giving much of the most rational coverage right now. And what used to be the good Guardian has now turned to lockdown zealotry.
Welcome to seeing what the rest of us see when we read the Guardian lol (emoshuns, lots of emoshuns).
I’m old enough to remember good journalism in the Guardian. Today not so much – it’s all virtue signalling. Vegan Central.
I noted the very same about ‘The Telegraph’ – pity the BBC don’t follow their example of balanced and logical articles, with accurate statistics.
https://youtu.be/0jTHNBKjMBU
And another: The Loony Tunes theme; a favourite in years gone by
If only 9% think pubs should reopen then what’s the problem? Open the pubs and for those of us who have not been cowed by the state and it’s media lackeys; there will be no problem in maintaining “social distancing”.
God, yes please. I’m beginning to think I’m living through Prohibition – and that worked well
“It is becoming more and more obvious that it is not starvation, it is not microbes, it is not cancer, but man himself who is his greatest danger: because he has no adequate protection against psychic epidemics, which are are infinitely more devastating in their effect than the greatest natural catastrophes.”
C.G. Jung, Modern Man in Search of a Soul
Quoted by the late great Christopher Booker in his last book “Groupthink: A Study in Self Delusion”.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Groupthink-Study-Delusion-Christopher-Booker/dp/1472959051
I recall strange epidemics of unknown cause in girls’ schools some years ago:
https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/14117464.flashback-hundreds-blackburn-pupils-hit-fainting-frenzy/
Like we’re all living in a play by Arthur Miller
Are the government so stupid to not know all the things we know on here? To ignore the hard facts and evidence? I find it hard to believe. Do they want to ruin the economy and people’s lives – no, even I don’t believe that. Did they make a huge mistake imposing ‘ social distancing’ and the fucking lockdown – in hindsight undoubtedly yes. So it’s now a political game, and I wonder if the heinous and scandalous overreporting of Corona deaths (indisputable) at this time is a deliberate strategy to keep the numbers artificially high, so that when lockdown ends, they will go back to recording ACTUAL Corona deaths and thereby when the number of actual deaths inevitably rises ( as there isn’t enough herd immunity because of the initial mistake) it will actually look as if it’s still falling, so they can proclaim themselves heroes in their policy decision, and critically will not have to impose any further social restrictions to damage the economy…
Yyyyyyyyyyyyyyup
Always reminds me of Rubber Ring by the Smiths, “You are sleeping, you do not want to believe.“
Of course they are deliberately obfuscating the real trend. The number of ICU patients and deaths in hospital was, if nothing else, a consistent and reliable measure of the progress that the virus has made in our society. There was no good reason … other than appeasing the media … to include deaths in the community.
I am utterly dismayed and depressed by the observer article and similar. I am sure the interviews were mainly from people enjoying the time off work and furloughed, also those scared to death by mainstream media. Being a therapist on the “frontline” of a group of people suffering trauma, depression, anxiety and emotional abuse in their homes I can say that i am terrified whether I will see my clients for their next session and I know many therapists who are the same. Hearing of friends who are lawyers dealing with an massive increase in child abuse and suicides. We won’t know the actual stats of suicides until January as they are recorded way after other deaths. Friends who are keen for the lockdown to continue seeing these things as an unfortunate side affect is utterly shocking. It is like there is a priority list of people who need to be protected. Covid patients being top of the list and all others just statistics and “what a shame” and “yes it is difficult times”. We should feel as a country utterly ashamed by what we are doing and the lax approach we have to risk assessing the impact of the… Read more »
Man, I wish the BBC would interview YOU at prime time.
Me too. Was wondering if i could anonymously borrow your comment and put it on my Facebook page? I too am appalled at so called friends who are saying they are “ENJOYING” the lockdown, and so many others who seem to be passionate about saving someone over 80 who has numerous other medical conditions and would probably die this year anyway, but ignore the fact that those with cancer from all age groups, are being denied diagnostic tests, minor operations whist tumours are operable, and treatments, plus those dying from strokes, heart attacks, assaults, murders, suicides, the effects of extreme poverty – and in the developing countries starvation. When I have pointed out the lockdown is not saving lives it is killing more people who would otherwise have the rest of their lives ahead of them, than Covid-19 ever could, I receive unbelievably aggressive and angry responses which not only ignore statistical evidence and opinions of eminent professionals around the globe, but frighten me with their lack of tolerance and downright Nazi like attitudes.
Hi Shropshire lass. Please don’t share further but I completely appreciate why you want to. I feel the same. I have had so much stick from people that I have had to come off Facebook and it is good to be able to share my frustrations here.
I feel exactly the same as you Poppy. Utterly bewildered and disheartened by my colleagues dismissal of sound evidence and critical thinking. When I endeavour to show them a different view they refuse to see it, to hear it. I suspect that this is the only way they can deal with the harm we are collectively doing to our community. For to admit that our response to covid19 is wrong and will in fact lead to widespread harm is too much. It is far easier to go along with the collective belief and feel virtuous in doing so.
The response ‘every life count’ and ‘you don’t care about the vulnerable’ will be used until this has blown over and then we will be reading articles in the Guardian about how the millions of jobless have no Government support. These responses are a get out of jail card that debunks all data, thought and evidence. It is clear that there is no argument that the ‘stay home, save lives’ will believe. It is a media led propaganda win that North Korea would be proud of. I think it has come at a perfect storm with the hard left reeling from Corbyn’s failure (I am not a Tory voter but I had more chance of winning than him) and Brexit (which I’m also pissed about!!) The only hope I see is that a couple of Countries take the lead as you have to remember ‘we are two or three weeks behind everyone else’. I’ve been relatively quiet on my social media profiles so far, just a couple of posts about living a life and the rhetoric of ‘stay home’ must change, but if Thursday’s announcement isn’t positive (and I’ve lost faith it will be with today’s polls), I will be… Read more »
Think I’ve already lost several myself, but it beats losing family to the lack of all non-covid medicine during lockdown and beats losing one’s future career to today’s panic of choice.
Benjamin Franklin not Alexander Hamilton.
The ECB was teetering even before Brexit and the UK’s departure will push it over the edge. QE has been pumping out cash for years and there’s always a time of reckoning. C 19 and our deliberate drive towards economic collapse can hide a multitude of sins, and also provide low hanging fruit for cashed up investors when it’s done. In my opinion, it’s the only reasonable explanation for this madness. (see this article written in January 19) https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/05/global-economic-crash-2020-understand-why
“our deliberate drive towards economic collapse can hide a multitude of sins, and also provide low hanging fruit for cashed up investors when it’s done”
I believe the Chinese are already hoovering up UK companies…
In the first breath we are told we are being imprisoned and our rights and liberties suspended to ‘save the NHS’ (rather than it saving us which is somewhat ironic) as they had to “follow the science”. When the science turns out to be over-hyped, fear-mongering nonsense without a shred of data to back it up and tons that contradict it, we are told that the people’s fear is important. Even Joseph Heller would have thought it unbelievable.
If you tell people alighting on a strange planet that taking off their space suit will kill them as the atmosphere is poisonous, none are going doff their helmet to check. The Govt must now set out the reality with the appropriate mea culpa and dispel the Coronaphobia forthwith. As long as ego maniacal, self serving news “personalities” are permitted to enhance their Twitter feeds by spreading nonsense or exaggerated mis-information, the longer we will remain in this tragic mess.
“Insanity is contagious.”
― Joseph Heller, Catch-22
Morale was deteriorating and it was all Yossarian’s fault. The country was in peril; he was jeopardizing his traditional rights of freedom and independence by daring to exercise them.”
― Joseph Heller, Catch-22
‘Catch-22 says they have the right to do anything we can’t stop them from doing’
Joseph Heller Catch-22
Why the action against the government being proposed by Simon Dolan is so important…
So my Mum just talked to her friend on the phone. She knows someone who probably had the corona in January (back when it ‘wasn’t transmissible from human to human’) and was very ill, back and forth from hospital, they thought it was just a bad chest infection etc. This is a middle-aged but fit woman. My next door but one neighbours also told me this morning that they were both very ill in January, to the point of having emergency doctors out. They are both in their late 60s. Sadly, there are now enough ‘serious’ cases for a lot of people to at least know *of* someone who has been badly affected or died and this is fuelling the climate of fear. They don’t yet know enough people who have been badly affected by the lockdown measures to weigh the consequences in their minds – and it will probably take the effects hitting them personally (in the pocket, substantially) to jog their brains into gear. As long as the financial effects remain staggered over a long period they may actually remain immune from deviant thoughts for quite a while. Like the frog in gradually heated water. Rishi’s furlough teat… Read more »
A work colleague and I had terrible sledgehammer headaches and dizziness in late January (we never get headaches or get sick) and then another collague in her early 50s (healthy) got classic C19 with awful side effects (it’s still ravaging her organs). We are sure we all had it but just reacted in different ways.
A neighbour had a headache and cough for about a fortnight but thought nothing of it. She’s fine now.
I had a tickly feeling in the upper airways for 3 days but nothing happened after this. I wasn’t incapacitated in any way.
2 weeks after lockdown, I developed a sudden, very strange punctate rash on my forearms and legs – weird rashes are now recognised as one of the less common signs of infection from Covid19. This was followed by a “typical” Covid19 symptom – total loss of taste and smell, accompanied by general malaise (similar to a severe cold), and a dry cough. I megadosed myself on sodium ascorbate powder and liposomal vitamin C (I stocked up in advance), and ate a low-carb diet. I remained active and went out dog-walking every day in woodland where I could have 500 yards of “social distancing” if necessary (the woods were usually deserted.) I wasn’t at all worried about this because (a) knowing Dr Ferguson had done the calculations, I was convinced at the outset that this pandemic would end up like the previous outbreaks of the Black Death – hyped beyond belief; and (b) by the time of my illness my predictions were coming true; the IFR was being revised ever downwards. After a fortnight everything cleared up. This missus had similar but much milder symptoms and got better much faster than me. Was it the dreaded “lurgey”? At this stage I… Read more »
I was sick with a terrible respiratory illness in late December – all of the classic symptoms of Covid. I went to the doctor and he told me, “Everyone in town has it!”
I’m half-convinced it’s why there are no cases in my county right now – I think we all got it and survived in December.
My whole family was the same in December, to the extent that we had to go to the out of hours surgery at the hospital on a Sunday night. I was told it was a chest infection or ‘just a virus’ but the symptoms were definitely like Covid19. There is mounting evidence that it’s been around a lot longer than since Feb/March in the UK. Yet it seems that evidence matters little to this government and to the country as a whole.
Had something odd, like a cold but much briefer, really bad sore throat, one day of high temperature, but nothing else, when there were only hundred cases in the UK. Doubt I could have got covid-19 then but sincerely hope I did. because if I did then A) I’ve got antibodies now and B) a lot more people than expected would have had to have had it back then to get me infected, so the spread now would be very wide and the fatality rate very low.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/what-does-survival-of-the-fittest-mean-in-the-coronavirus-pandemic/
If you haven’t seen this, it’s a fascinating account
I’ve been banging this particular drum for a while now – GOOD HEALTH is our best initial defence against a novel virus. (What a crazy idea – why, we all know that a healthy body runs on patented pharmaceuticals!)
FINALLY there is some attention being given to one important aspect of this:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/03/time-take-seriously-link-vitamin-d-deficiency-serious-covid/
Given that the populace are locked down away from sunlight and many are living on a diet of fast food and booze (take a look at the TV ads during this crisis), I doubt many people have any vitamin D reserves left.
My OH and I have been taking Vitamin D over the winter, precisely because we get so little sunlight then.
I had a short-term cold just after Christmas, then a more serious viral infection at the beginning of March, i.e. a sore trachea which caused a cough (1 day), followed by raised temperature (2 days), extreme lethargy for about a week, followed by a cough that lasted 7 weeks. I have no idea if it was the WuFlu, but it sounded very similar to the bug everyone else had around December, January time. I was clearly a late developer.
MOH did not catch whatever it was I had, and has continued to take VitD.
I’m over 65 and have been supplementing myself with Vitamin D3 in the winter as a matter of course for the past five winters. Advise everyone to do the same. I suspect everyone in northern hemisphere is low on vitamin D during dark winter months. No concidence that dark-skinned people are suffering disproportionately from this virus in northern European countries.
And look at the high carb low fat crap they are fed in hospitals and care homes.
My experience – but n=thousands – all the while I ate high carb I would catch everything going. Couldn’t possibly be the healthy diet right?
A dietician was horrified by “all that fat” I was supposedly eating, so I replaced it with even more carbs, put on a load of weight all round my gut and was finally diagnosed with diabetes.
When I finally wised up and went low carb/paleo/keto I lost all the weight as quickly as I put it on, normalised my blood glucose and lipids, came off most of my drugs, and hardly ever catch anything, no flu and only two colds in the last fifteen years
BUT I did come down with an annoying cough and felt rough for a few days, way back probably in December or early January, as did a whole horde of other people. We’ll never know if it was early covid or some other bug which was strong enough to break through my cast iron immune system doing the rounds.
At Christmas I developed a very bad sore throat, followed by a constant, debilitating, dry cough. I couldn’t shake it for two weeks, and I was still coughing on and off several weeks later.
I’m sure this was coronavirus. The symptoms match and it was like no other cold or virus I’ve ever had.
I think it’s likely this virus has been circulating since December, but for some reason no-one is talking about this or investigating the reports.
If that is the case, then the fatality rate may be even lower than reported, as a significant proportion of the population have already had this bug, making this lockdown even more pointless.
Truth is, the British are an increasingly lazy and feckless society. They grow fat (literally) on handouts and love “free stuff”. One of the funniest thinks I have seen on TV as a couple of days ago when the BBC were bleating about the increased patronage of food banks. They were following what we must consider to be the ‘typical’ customer, a woman the size of the Hindenburg, a person of such enormousness, it was hard to understand why she would need to visit a food bank this side of 2021. But, indulged and provided with keening BBC sympathy, she had to be. Depressing and revolting in equal measure.
I used to volunteer at a food bank and sad to tell, malnutrition, obesity and poverty frequently appear together.
Initially I too was staggered by the dimensions of some of the more rotund visitors but it’s a sad reflection on the way too many people live now.
There are many many very fat people here in my small town.
They don’t know how to cook,how to use fresh vegetables or how to achieve a simple,affordable balanced diet.
Now that we’re all under house arrest, rates of obesity will undoubtedly rise.
And the message that it’s a risk factor for calamitous-covid doesn’t seem seem to be making any impression.
Since so many nurses and care assistants are seriously obese, and ‘fat-shaming’ is still frowned upon by the commentariat, I don’t quite know how this will play out.
I don’t think anybody can use the excuse that they don’t know how to use fresh vegetables and eat a balanced diet. There is a plethora of free information about it everywhere. It’s just bad habits and a lack of wanting to change.
Yes I agree; I’m not making excuses, merely reporting the facts on the ground here.
I’ve worked in minimum wage jobs for years but still manage a good standard of living on a low income. I cook from scratch and am a master at making cheap nutritious meals. I don’t waste food either. I have a healthy BMI as I make sure I get plenty of exercise walking, running or wild swimming all of which are free. Many people are simply lazy and are more than happy to dial a pizza or calorie laden take away and then spend mindless hours lolling about on the sofa. If anyone is going to be targeted perhaps obese people should be under lockdown rather than healthy older individuals. Obesity is a huge epidemic in the UK and one that will certainly cost the NHS as it does already.
There are 2 individuals up here who are grossly, staggeringly obese: the woman has developed an abdominal overhang which reaches almost to her knees; the man is confined to a mobility scooter.
There are also several young families whose members are all big-parents and children.
As mentioned on another thread, the senior nurse practitioner at the local GP practice is significantly overweight and yet part of her role must be to give health advice.
As to the food bank, there was a plan to start cooking lessons to address the problems of poor diet but these have no doubt been shelved now.
Healthy food is expensive and fattening food is cheap too (a reversal of a rotund Henry VIII showing off his wealth by being grossly obsese), plus it’s hard to cook if you’ve got no money for the gas meter.
Which is also why being a ‘size zero’ is now a status symbol.
Size is in many ways a good class indicator: very few fat folks in affluent areas .
Yet in places in the world where food is scarce, being fat is a class indicator, the richer you are, the fatter you are.
The definition, I have heard it said, of the transition from a third world/developing country to a first world/developed one is that those who are struggling on an inadequate income become fat rather than thin.
That’s not strictly true. Vegetables are some of the cheapest foods available. If you don’t have money for the gas meter then there are food banks available. People can use plenty of excuses, but I think it’s more about habit and no real desire to eat better. Sadly once people are addicted to sugary fast foods it’s very difficult to come of them – sugar has been described as more addictive than cocaine. That addiction combined with a lack of desire to change makes it difficult indeed, but it can be done.
Government advice about “healthy eating” is part of the problem. Here is the NHS eatwell guide. https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/eat-well/the-eatwell-guide/ You can see that apart from fruit and vegetables, it is all starch, processed food, low fat dairy and margarine. No wonder people are fat and unwell and depend on medical care rather than their own immune system to keep them going. Zoe Harcombe, who blogs about obesity and other health issues, points out that in the days when British people ate meat and two veg and used butter and lard, overweight wasn’t a problem. Lack of exercise has less to do with overweight than many people think. Saturated fat is like covid19; the government has made people paranoid about it.
THIS!
There’s a cartoon of a pyramid-shaped person looking at a poster of the Food Pyramid.
The real superfood no-one dares to mention is meat, and better still lamb’s liver which hopefully I shall buy tomorrow.
Shame fruit couldn’t be as cheap as veg, if you could get strawberries at the per kg cost of cabbages then people might be more willing to give healthy foods a try.
That’s nonsense.
A kilo of carrots costs less than a mars bar, a banana costs less than a packet of crisps.
People are to bone idle/stupid to cook/eat properly.
I’m never quite sure how all those nurses, who complain about being run off their feet, and don’t get time to eat because they’re so busy, plus their wages are too low to be able to feed themselves…. how so many get so fat.
That’s why they’re so fat. They follow the NHS Eatwell Guide, snack on sandwiches and filled rolls and never sit down to a square meal.
Think the lockdown will only make this worse. In saner times when something called work went on I had one large meal at lunch a day (not a terribly healthy one) then ate just a little meat and a load of fruit in the evening. Now in this chaos having so little to do all day I’m turning to snacking for something to keep me busy.
Too many biscuits, cakes, crisps, take aways, copious amounts of alcohol and not enough exercise. I used to work in the NHS and obesity is endemic.
Those on zero hours are still at work if they want to eat, they are also being hypocritically lauded as ‘essential’ but not so essential as we give them rights, and holidays and good conditions (our Amazon driver tells us it’s busier than Christmas, no extra pay, nothing). I don’t buy the ‘feckless’ line. Plus dreadful employers need to take a bow too, if they treated their employees better they’d want to be at work, why wouldn’t you want to sit at home on 80% if you had a job you hated. This situation is complex I think, lots of factors at play. I think a breakdown of lockdown support and fear by socio economic class would be interesting, seems to me this is a posh panic.
My friend is on a zero hour contract and he said to me “I don’t qualify for furlough, I don’t qualify for sick pay (not enough hours). If I don’t go to work, I don’t eat, or I sign on. But if I do to work and I get sick, I’m in the same situation, only I’m ill too. So I can be poor and ill or poor and healthy.”
So he stayed at home and signed on. The remaining staff must be run off their feet, cause I bet there are plenty like him.
What’s really fucking sad is that the actions of the very same people who want an end to zero hour contracts and Mega Business have put into action a chain of events that are allowing them to thrive, whilst also threatening the very existence of every independent business who (generally) cares about their staff.
Can’t get the British back to work, they are too scared? What they are is too well off. Remove their benefits and generous furlough funding, and they will scamper back to work quick smart. Currently, too many are on an extended paid holiday. They are ‘scared’ because it suits them to be scared.
It’s all a bit short-sighted isn’t it?!
This, a text from my wife’s friend last weekend, a woman in her mid 50s (teacher of primary school kids)…Excuse punctuation etc… direct copy!
“I don’t know why I watch that conference every day…so blooming depressing. Now over 20,000 dead helped hugely by the government allowing a week of Cheltenham gold cup plus liverpool playing real Madrid fans coming from spain and stereophonics concert they will have gone on to give it to millions!!!! Very cruel..we are doing what they ask but no exit in place…its not a wonder people are starting to go out!! Enjoy your bbq if your having one tonight.”
Then 3 minutes later:
“Channel 82 clubland ibiza anthems… really good x”
This woman, sat at home on full pay, is ‘frightened’ to go back to work in case she catches CV from the children. I’m more concerned that the children might catch a mental health problem from her!
“If your having one tonight”
She’s prob been shouting Covidiots at the local working class scum at every opportunity. Soon she’ll back at school teaching that punctuation to our children 🙄
Funniest one was when I saw a lockdown zealot who commented, below a news article about an anti-lockdown protest. The zealot tried to seize on the fact that the protesters had stood up “for the workers”, he suggested that “the o of workers should change to an a”. So it seems that they can’t even spell sufficiently well to make an insulting substitution, let alone handle homophones in the grammatically correct fashion.
Typical double standards, pro-lockdown zealots come in two types: “draconian rules must be applied rigourously to everyone but me” and “I’m sacred to work but happy to attend parties”. Their whole attitude is virtue signalling, but only signalling, there is no true virtue in wanting civil rights crushed and jobs destroyed.
“It’s official. We’re a nation of bedwetters. As Alexander Hamilton said, “Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.””
There you have it, we’ve reached herd stupidity. We should just let those that wish to barricade themselves in their homes to get on with it, while the rest of us can concentrate on earning living.
‘Panty wetters’, as James Delingpole would have it, spot-on
Herd stupidity. Love it.
Great headline for Hitches or journalists of a similar persuasion:
“WE HAVE NOW ACHIEVED HERD STUPIDITY.”
I feel the word “CORONAPHOBIA” should also start gaining widespread traction; we are in the grip of a severe “Emotional Plague” (to quote Wilhelm Reich) that will result in vastly greater loss of life than the physical “plague” we’ve just been through.
Oops…..Hitchens
Franklin, not Hamilton
As someone on the ” front line ” I can say the only covid19 deaths I have come across are very elderly frail patients who have been admitted to the local DGH with significant illnesses eg myocardial infarcts who then go on to catch the virus in the hospital where presumably it is carried by a lot of asymptomatic carriers. The other frequent place for covid 19 deaths is two local EMI ( dementia ) homes where in both cases a supposedly non infectious covid19 had been discharged from the local DGH.
I have not seen any covid19 fatalities under the age 75. I am not sure why the media is highlighting every ” young ” covid19 fatality but they are as rare as hens teeth.
I think we all know why…
A couple of weeks ago it occurred to me to check childhood UK deaths from seasonal flu. 15 minutes scanning through some abstracts on PubMed gave me the answer – on average, around a dozen very young children die each year during our flu season. No mention of this little annual tragedy by our MSM.
Trouble is, everyone has an old person they care about. Plus everyone sees how I’ll the young *can* get and shits themselves.
I understand it even though it’s completely not logical to me. But countries should be run on logic, not empathy.
It is evident that Covid is no more dangerous than flu and, it could be argued less so, for unlike flu Covid is not dangerous to the young whereas flu is.
Which also means, by the traditional definition, it’s not a ‘pandemic’.
It’s a fear pandemic.
It’s a herdemic
It’s a panicdemic
And the first victim was Logic!
A demopanic?
Flu pandemics have typically hit the young worst, they have tended to cause immune systems to go into overdrive among thsoe who have an effective one. The 1918 flu largely left the old and infirm untouched, absolutely tore through the young though including soldiers in excellent health. We should be gald covid-19 isn’t like that, end the lockdown now so we can start preparing medical infrastructrue to handle any future pandemic that might be rather more dangerous.
Also I think the more evidence (anecdotal or otherwise, esp from professionals such as yourself) we get out there that covid patients were being discharged back into care homes, the better. People need to realise that the policy hasnt just been “protect the NHS” — rather it has been “protect the NHS over the people it’s meant to serve”.
A statistician-friend has been looking at the numbers daily. Below is a link to his analysis of the mortality risk for a 50-55 year old in one of the peak-mortality weeks, compared to the same week over the previous 5 years. In answer to your thoughts, Peter, he has put the mean, mode and median age for mortality between 82 and 90.
https://massagehealth.co.uk/covid19_26/
That’s a really good, well explained article. It reminded me that people could make the classic error of ignoring the low baseline death rate when looking, and potentially worrying, about the increased death rate in their age bracket.
There was a chapter in Bad Science about this. I wonder what Ben Goldacre makes of everything that’s been happening?
Hmm…
https://mobile.twitter.com/bengoldacre?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
I guess he’s not going to reading this site.
But surely he’s got the percentages wrong. 6.6 in every 100,000 is 0.0066% not 0.000066%. still low, but not that low.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwMVMbmQBug Made me laugh. “I’m as mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore!” Speech from Network: “I don’t have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It’s a depression. Everybody’s out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel’s worth, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter. Punks are running wild in the street and there’s nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there’s no end to it. We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TV’s while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that’s the way it’s supposed to be. We know things are bad – worse than bad. They’re crazy. It’s like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don’t go out anymore. We sit in the house, and slowly the world we are living in is getting smaller, and all we say is, ‘Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted… Read more »
Just one point, there’s nothing funny about porn, particularly pornhub who have made all their subscription content free to help men “cope” with the lockdown. Please remember illegal child abuse and the awful Cyprus rape were uploaded to that site, one family of a missing 15 year old school girl, only found her due to dozens of illegal videos of her captivity and depraved abuse uploaded to that sewer. I could show you links about what happens to those kids, even when they are out and ‘safe’, men continue to track them down on the internet, and the things they say would make you cry, it’s no laughing matter. Porn is clearly linked to violence, and attitudes to rape and violence, and general attitudes to women, spare a thought for all the women and kids (one thing abusive men do is force their children to watch it, and have it on in the house at all times at maximum volume) locked in with an angry, violent, sexually entitled man. And before you tell me about the women who choose to do it, any porn star you can remember the name of is already dead. Women survive about three months in… Read more »
Well done for saying this. You won’t get much in the way of acknowledgement for it, because most men’s attitude to porn is textbook cognitive dissonance.
Bloody awful Men, eh, who needs ‘em..(BTW, thought this site was dealing with lockdown scepticism rather than man-bashing)
i think you’ll find most men think porn is disgusting and don’t watch it.
Most men must be liars then 🙄
speak for yourself but i’d say most of us don’t need filth and degeneracy in our lives. It’s a myth put about by feminists than men watch porn.
I didn’t think much about it when I read the original article in The Times as it was an amusing interview of a young, apparently happy, couple. You are absolutely right to point out the hidden casualties behind the site, particularly at a time when vulnerable children and others are forced into confinement with their abusers.
Well said BecJT.
Quite agree BecJT. Some time ago I watched- I think it was a Stacey Dooley doc- a young woman who’d abandoned her degree course for an excitingly glamorous life as a porn star,
What an awful story: such is the emphasis now on this being a freely chosen ‘life style’ career for the liberated woman.
She was paid more for unprotected sex with fellow porn stars.
At the film’s end, she confessed to being stricken by panic attacks.
One can only wonder about the risks to her physical health:STDs, cervical cancer, HIV
Hear, hear, unreservedly.
Well Toby, you opened the gates to the holier-than-thou, self righteous, virtue signalling, man hating brigade, well done and good luck, I’m done…
Don’t worry some of us like porn as much as the next man. 🖒 #badfeminist
Two other important articles today
https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741
This is now in MSM in the US.The role of Fauci and indirect the US in outsourcing extremely dangerous science experiment. It is unbelievable why this extreme dangerous work with chimeric corona virus was needed in the first place.Frankenstein work. And backing all this NIH Fauci and the Master manipulator Bill Gates.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/why-sweden-has-already-won-debate-covid-19-lockdown-policy
An extensive article about the total fiasco of lockdown, an experiment never done before.
This is what’s so funny to me. I’m a student of medieval literature and history — and they didn’t even try this crap on such a scale even back then despite it being a throughly medieval tactic. They’d do it in individual cities and towns (akin to how they stock down during a siege) but never even attempt to do it across whole countries or even between countries. Trade routes would still function and people would still work.
A really good article by Professor Robert Watson, looking at death rates by age and sex, at Hector Drummond Magazine:
https://hectordrummond.com/2020/05/02/guest-post-robert-watson-a-comparison-of-the-relative-magnitude-of-covid-19-and-all-other-causes-of-deaths-per-1000-for-age-and-sex-cohorts/
What a splendidly sensible analysis. Needs to reach the more hysterical cohorts in the msm.
Great article with a fascinating and panic-busting conclusion, but who is Robert Watson? The blurb describes him as a “retired professor” but a former professor of what exactly, and at which university? If he is a man of some clout as, say, a medical statistician, this could be a powerful article; if he is a former professor of Anglo-Saxon whose hobby is statistics, the article will be all too easily dismissed.
The interview with Professor Michael Levitt, and especially what is being said about it, tells me we are all not getting any better at understanding the epidemic dynamics, and their models. Both people in favour and against the lockdown policies seem not to understand some key points. The exponential growth with an “R0” rate is what should be observed at the start of the epidemic. The actual rate at which people are getting infected decreases with time, though, as the susceptible population decreases. This is what causes “the curve” to change shape from an exponential to a bump. The “explosion” is contained by the limited size of the population. I believe this is what Professor Levitt is talking about. He was observing the dynamics of the infection rate, pointing out that the peak has been reached. This does not mean there was no exponential regime at first, it just happened earlier. The size and width of this peak will be controlled by the parameters fed to the model, as anyone playing with the simulations must now have understood. What it’s striking to me is that no-one seems to be trying to actually fit these models accurately to the data. The… Read more »
https://covidcurvetracker.org/
“The work is based on an observation Professor Pike made (during his own coronavirus-related isolation) while exploring public COVID-19 data: that the growth in rate of deaths from confirmed COVID-19 cases in Italy seemed to be the same pattern seen in China. Subsequent exploration of other countries’ death rates indicated that this may be a more generalized phenomenon and could serve to provide useful information about the pandemic.”
Quite interesting. All deaths of Covid seem to follow same pattern.UK will have 35000 deaths in end of June when the epidemic ends.Updated every day for several countries
This would seem to be broadly similar to the UK deaths from Hong Kong Flu back in the late ’60’s
( there were two waves) after adjusting for relative population. Broadly similar IFR’s ( I think) but no lockdown back then.
The reason you don’t see pure exponential growth is just because by the time you notice the epidemic it’s already somewhat underway.
I absolutely agree with the bit about exponential growth – but didn’t have the confidence to say it!
However, I don’t agree that the models just need their settings tweaking. For sure, it would be possible to set a computer off and running, to home in on the optimal settings that give least squared error or whatever. However, I still don’t think we have meaningful data (all deaths are now Covid-19, confirmed cases isn’t from random samples), and I don’t think the models reflect reality.
If you fit an oversimplified model to the data, for sure, you might get a close fit. But if you then assume that your model must be correct, and therefore its predictions are meaningful you may be deluding yourself.
Definition of an economist – someone who looks out the back window of a car and tells you where you are going Same as computer modellers?
The data that came out of China changed so often so quickly that attaching any value to early modelling outputs was fraught with a high degree of risk. No doubt modellers made this abundantly clear (or not really?) ‘From Jan 15 to March 3, 2020, seven versions of the case definition for COVID-19 were issued by the National Health Commission in China. We estimated that when the case definitions were changed, the proportion of infections being detected as cases increased by 7·1 times (95% credible interval [CrI] 4·8–10·9) from version 1 to 2, 2·8 times (1·9–4·2) from version 2 to 4, and 4·2 times (2·6–7·3) from version 4 to 5. If the fifth version of the case definition had been applied throughout the outbreak with sufficient testing capacity, we estimated that by Feb 20, 2020, there would have been 232 000 (95% CrI 161 000–359 000) confirmed cases in China as opposed to the 55 508 confirmed cases reported.’ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30089-X/fulltext ‘Mathematical models have been used to simulate scenarios and predict evolution of infectious diseases since the early 20th century.11 Models are usually driven by a disease’s intrinsic mechanism or fitted through sufficient data, but they are frequently expected to provide quick insights of, and… Read more »
If i can work 36 hours a week in a supermarket then i can go to the pub and the football, i can visit my old man, i can race my dirt bike. No lockdown for me or my wife and daughter who all work in the same supermarket. I call those who are staying home cowards and those who clap the NHS braindead zombies who’d let our country become a dictatorship resulting in the likes of me having to fight for my freedom and, perversely, their’s too. They sicken my to my core.
We need more stalwarts like you with your good sense and robust independence-good on you!
Well said, mate.
I have a zero hours contract in social care and am more than happy to work at the moment as Im getting more hours than I can cope with. It means I can get out of the house for hours then have a nice drive home on empty roads. The clapping for theNHS and carers needs to stop though. Personally I find it patronising and condescending.
Thanks for what you’re doing 🙂
Like….. That’s all that needs to be said really, isn’t it? All the tokenistic seal-clapping BS only cheapens genuine sentiment
http://www.songlyrics.com/hidden-citizens-feat-ranya/let-me-out-lyrics/
Another theme tune
https://youtu.be/jySfU10IQu4
And this: The Importance of Being Idle
Thanks again Toby. Still no news on the Robert Kok petition, it’s still showing as pending. It must be nearly three weeks now!
Starting to look pretty suspicious, I check it every day.
Agreed, why is it taking so long unless they want to censor it?
It is clear that the government still wants to stoke up plenty of fear to ensure that we are sufficiently submissive for whatever happens next. Face masks perpetuate the idea of an out of control virus which is literally everywhere and the stories about people being afraid to leave lockdown simply encourage people to continue to be afraid. And so it goes on.
This article by Lord Sumption was an uplifting rabble rouser
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8281007/Former-Supreme-Court-judge-LORD-SUMPTION-gives-withering-critique-Governments-lockdown.html
He’s amazing. I wish he was my grandad.
Personally I’d rather he was the PM
Excellent article.
First French case may have been back in December 27th, didn’t Itailan press claim their first case might have been in December too.
https://twitter.com/cecileollivier/status/1256966423919935491?s=19
It’s a nasty virus not The Black Death.
It will kill the vulnerable (As Flu does every year and look up the 1968 pandemic)
The Govt panicked, having been given duff statistics by ONE dodgy scientist with a poor track record.
MSM have panicked the gullible sheep by preaching their 24/7 fear laden message of death and destruction.
Govt are weak (Boris has done himself no favours whatsoever)
Govt are starting to realise they have cocked up and are now struggling to find a way to back down.
The stats are being manipulated.
In the meantime the economy is going to be f****d and ironically more people will eventually die as a result of this, than will die of Coronavirus.
Let’s act sensibly, take sensible precautions (as we did at the start), get back to work and go and have a pint afterwards. Life is for living.
This is Steve Austin, reporting for the ‘I’m not a sheep and refuse to clap for the NHS on a Thursday’ and no. I’m not moving off the footpath, common sense news channel.
“One of Ferguson’s models predicted that 65,000 people could die from swine flu. In the event, no more than 500 died”.
Shouldn’t that have sounded alarm bells? Do our cowardly politicians know how to ask the right questions?
Join the discussion…I also refuse to clap for the NHS! What idiots so many in the UK have turned out to be. I’m ashamed to be British! Just think what we could have been doing with these weeks if we weren’t imprisoned. I’m feeling my grip on sanity is being eroded-& I’m an intelligent, fit woman! All life involves risk. Let intelligent commonsense & personal choice prevail
I am becoming increasingly enraged at the wilful ignorance of many in the media intent on destroying our lives for I can discern no credible motive. Cui Bono? I have seen little intelligent comment on the Government’s ‘testing, programme apart from ideological arguments over whether an arbitrary target was met or not. Why are the fear mongering Twitter-trolls with 6 million followers and a dais on Breakfast TV not looking into the rationale for the Governments strategy, particularly bearing in mind that they are condemning its actions in every new Tweet? Their entire focus appears to be to perpetuate an irrational fear of Coronavirus. In any other situation were an expert to have published an opinion on which Government policy was based these trolls would have eviscerated the advisor and the Minister responsible, but in these times they completely ignore Ferguson and his discredited and absurd prognostication in favour of spreading the same narrative as though he had been correct, namely mass death on an industrial scale, rather then one following the path and severity of seasonal flu. The Government has instigated a massive testing programme, which appears to be little more than a PR exercise that will do little… Read more »
A+++ couldn’t agree more with everything you’ve said
Yep, my mobile will be there alongside yours!
Corona Crap Thought For The Day:
In a New Years’ Honours list in the not too distant future:
Professor Sir Neil Ferguson
Oh hell no
IIRC he already got one for his work on Foot & Mouth.