No prizes for guessing what story dominated this morning’s papers: Professor Pantsdown. A couple of weeks ago I dubbed Neil Ferguson “Dr Strangelove”, trying to capture the mesmeric effect he seems to have had on successive British Prime Ministers. But it turns out the “Strange Love Doctor” would have been more appropriate. According to the Telegraph‘s spellbinding scoop – a marmalade-dropper if ever there was one – Ferguson has been carrying on an affair with a married mother-of-two during the lockdown. Talk about breaking the social distancing rules! And the icing on the cake is that the name of his 38 year-old mistress is Antonia Staats! You couldn’t make it up, as we say on Fleet Street. The punning possibilities are endless. (Guido Fawkes: “Who could blame a boffin for wanting to massage his staats?“) Incidentally, if you can’t get past the Telegraph‘s paywall, not to worry. The story is also in the Mail, the Guardian, the Metro, the Independent, the New York Times… it’s everywhere. The BBC even has it, although in a very muted form. The latest development is that Matt Hancock says it’s now in the hands of the police. Are we about to see Imperial’s Professor of Mathematical Biology led away in handcuffs? The intellectual architect of Britain’s draconian coronavirus policy may be about to experience what it’s really like to be locked down. (He won’t, obviously, but I couldn’t resist that.)
One interesting detail: in his statement to the Telegraph, Professor Ferguson said: “I acted in the belief that I was immune, having tested positive for coronavirus, and completely isolated myself for almost two weeks after developing symptoms.” So not only does Professor Lockdown think you do develop immunity after recovering from COVID-19, but you don’t even need to take an antibody test to prove it. If only all of us who think we’ve had it were free to act in the same way.
I’m fascinated by the details about Antonia Staats. According to the Telegraph, she lives in a £1.9 million house in south London with her husband and two children and has an “open marriage”. Guido has dug up a podcast she did on March 31st (now offline), 24 hours after visiting Professor Ferguson, in which she complains that the lockdown is putting a strain on her marriage. But it’s her politics I’m really interested in. The Telegraph has her down as a “left-wing campaigner”, a reference to the fact that she campaigned against leaving the EU and is a long-standing environmental activist who supported Greta Thunberg’s climate strike. Many of the papers have included this picture of her standing outside Number 10 delivering a petition to the Prime Minister about ending fossil fuel subsidies:
Some of you may be wondering, what is the relevance of Ms Staat’s politics? The answer, obviously, is that her politics are likely to be Professor Ferguson’s politics. We know that he co-authored a paper in 2016 warning of the terrible consequences of leaving the EU, and we can see from his Twitter feed that he’s not exactly a Tory. For instance, he sent the following tweet to the Liberal Democrat MP Layla Moran when she won Oxford West and Abingdon in 2017: “Great news – so happy to wake up to hear you won! Fingers crossed that last night means at least a softer Brexit.”
The reason for looking into the political affiliations of the scientists and experts who’ve been advising governments across the world during this crisis is that it may throw some light on why those governments have made such poor policy decisions. Will the vast majority of those advisers turn out to be left-of-centre, like Professor Ferguson? I’m 99% sure of it, and I think that will help us to understand what’s happened.
I don’t mean they’ve deliberately given right-of-centre governments poor advice in the hope of wrecking the economy for nefarious party-political reasons, or because they’re members of Extinction Rebellion and want to destroy capitalism. Nor do I believe in any of the conspiracy theories linking these public health panjandrums to Bill Gates and Big Pharma and some diabolical plan to vaccinate 7.8 billion people. I have little doubt they’ve acted in good faith throughout – but that’s part of the problem. The road they’ve led us down has been paved with all the usual good intentions.
The mistakes these liberal policy-makers have made are depressingly familiar to anyone who’s studied the breed: overestimating the ability of the state to solve complicated problems as well as the capacity of state-run agencies to deliver on those solutions; failing to anticipate the unintended consequences of large-scale state interventions; thinking about public policy in terms of moral absolutes rather than trade-offs; chronic fiscal incontinence, with zero inhibitions about adding to the national debt; not trusting in the common sense of ordinary people and believing the only way to get them to avoid risky behaviour is to put strict rules in place and threaten them with fines or imprisonment if they disobey them (and ignoring those rules themselves, obviously); arrogantly assuming that anyone who challenges their policy preferences is either ignorant or evil; never venturing outside their metropolitan echo chambers, being citizens of anywhere rather than somewhere… you know the rest. We’ve seen it a hundred times before.
More often than not, the “solutions” these left-leaning experts come up with make the problems they’re grappling with even worse, and so it will prove to be in this case. The evidence mounts on a daily basis that locking down whole populations in the hope of “flattening the curve” was a catastrophic error, perhaps the worst policy mistake ever committed by Western governments during peacetime. Just yesterday we learnt that the lockdowns have forced countries across the world to shut down TB treatment programmes which, over the next five years, could lead to 6.3 million additional cases of TB and 1.4 million deaths. There are so many stories like this that it’s impossible to keep track. We will soon be able to say – with something approaching certainty – that the cure has been worse than the disease.
Neil Ferguson isn’t single-handedly responsible for this world-historical blunder, but he does bear some responsibility. His apocalyptic predictions frightened the British Government into imposing a full lockdown, with other governments quickly following suit. And I’m afraid he’s absolutely typical of the breed. He suffers from the same fundamental arrogance that progressive interventionists have exhibited since at least the middle of the 18th Century – wildly over-estimating the good that governments can do, assuming there are no limits to what “science” can achieve and, at the same time, ignoring the empirical evidence that their ambitious public programmes are a complete disaster. At bottom, they believe that nature itself can be bent to man’s will.
It isn’t an attractive, 38 year-old woman in a red dress that has brought down Professor Lockdown. It’s a nucleic acid molecule in a protein coat.
Okay, rant over.
Not all left-wingers support the lockdowns, of course. There are still plenty of sensible ones out there. I get quite a few supportive messages beginning, “I usually disagree with your politics, but on this occasion…” Here’s one I particularly liked from a reader in Australia:
As a man of the left, I have been as dismayed by the contemporary left’s fervent embrace of lockdown mania as by its failure to understand democratic national populism (Brexit, Trump, etc). Thanks for your sane, rational counterpoint to the remarkable hysteria and panic that has gripped the nations of the world over a reputationally-inflated bug. For lockdown reading, I suggest the real-life-based short story, ‘The Day the Dam Broke’ (in James Thurber’s collection of shorts, My Life and Hard Times) about a “frightful and perilous afternoon in March 1913 [in Columbus, Ohio] when the dam broke, or, to be more exact, when everybody in town thought that the dam broke” and “hundreds of people went streaming by our house in wild panic, screaming ‘Go east! Go east!’ … fearful of being overtaken and engulfed by the roaring waters – that is, if there had been any roaring waters”. The fleeing townsfolk included the town’s doctor, whose statements always carried conviction and gravitas. After the panic died down “people had gone rather sheepishly back to their homes and offices, minimising the distances they had run and offering various reasons for running” even though “there had never been any danger at all”. Thurber’s story is a wry study of unfounded fear, folly and foolishness. It should be required reading for all epidemiologists and politicians.
I’ve tracked down a YouTube video of Keith Olbermann, an American political commentator, reading aloud The Day the Dam Broke that you can view here.
I wrote about the shortcomings of Professor Ferguson’s computer model for my column in this week’s Spectator, but last night the editor got me to rip it up and write a new one about last night’s extraordinary news. I’ve done that, and it’s now online. Here’s an extract:
Why is it that the most zealous advocates for reining in human behaviour, whether it’s in Prohibition-era America or the midst of a public health crisis, always get caught with their pants down? I’m reminded of something the late Christopher Hitchens said: ‘Whenever I hear some bigmouth in Washington or the Christian heartland banging on about the evils of sodomy or whatever, I mentally enter his name in my notebook and contentedly set my watch. Sooner rather than later, he will be discovered down on his weary and well-worn old knees in some dreary motel or latrine, with an expired Visa card, having tried to pay well over the odds to be peed upon by some Apache transvestite.’
For those who find this sort of thing unenlightening and want a more meaty takedown of Professor Ferguson, a reader who’s an experienced coder – as in, worked as a senior engineer at Google for eight years – has written a review of the code underpinning the Imperial College model for this site that you can read here. Quite technical, but even a non-specialist like me can get the gist: ICL’s computer model is a great illustration of the coders’ golden rule – “garbage in, garbage out”.
In other news, an international survey by a team from the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge has found that Britons are more scared of coronavirus than anyone else in the world. Dr Sander van der Linden, who led the study, seems to think this reflects well on us. “The national stereotype is that British people are fairly reserved, but when something goes on people seem very willing to step in and do the right thing,” she told the Telegraph. The paper reports that Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, the statistician who heads up the Centre, is less sanguine about the results of the survey. He has expressed concern that we’re “over anxious” and called for a campaign to get people “to start living again”.
If you are suffering from “coronaphobia”, this is a must read Twitter thread by Dr Muge Cevik, an infectious diseases researcher at St Andrew’s University. She cites numerous research studies suggesting that a close and prolonged exposure to someone infected with the virus is necessary for transmission, making a nonsense of social-distancing rules. The most likely hotspots are not sporting arenas, shopping centres, restaurants, cafés, etc., but hospitals and care homes. “Casual, short interactions are not the main driver of the epidemic,” she says, although she stops short of saying we should ignore social distancing rules. The technical way of putting this is that the virus is a nosocomial infection. Incidentally, this is Matt Ridley’s reason for becoming a lockdown sceptic, something he revealed in a webinar that he and I participated in yesterday for the Global Warming Policy Foundation, along with Inaya Folarin Iman. You can watch that here.
And while we’re on the subject of social distancing, here’s yet another reason to move to Sweden. The Nordic country’s Public Health Authority has put up this notice on its website regarding the two-metre rule. Remember, this is the rule that’s likely to be imposed on the entire population of British office workers, not to mention everyone else, everywhere. This is a verbatim translation:
There are currently no studies that show any exact limit for what distance is safe, but considering how droplet infection spreads, a benchmark could be at least one arm’s length distance. Another reason why the Public Health Authority only provides an approximate measure is that businesses such as restaurants, shops and other public places must be able to have some flexibility for the business to function.
I came across a great new website yesterday – Evidence Not Fear. It’s like a militant version of Lockdown Sceptics. It doesn’t just collate evidence about the ineffectiveness of lockdowns, it urges its readers to take action. For instance, it includes this template you can use to write to your MP. I’ve added a permanent link on my Introduction page.
Exciting developments with Simon Dolan’s lawsuit against the Government. Philip Havers QC has joined the team. Havers, a barrister and Deputy High Court Judge who specialises in public law, human rights and public inquiries, will be helping Dolan mount a challenge against the lawfulness of the Government’s restriction of civil liberties. You can contribute to the crowdfunder here. Last time I checked it was up to £75,000, more than halfway to the £125,000 target.
In Monday’s update I gushed enthusiastically about the imminent attack backbench Conservative MPs were about to launch on the Government over its mishandling of the coronavirus crisis. This was in a House of Commons debate that afternoon. Well, bad news I’m afraid. Attacks came there none. A reader has listened to a recording of the debate so you don’t have to. Here is his summary:
Not one MP called for an end to lockdown.
Not one MP said, ‘The epidemic is over, Secretary of State.’
Not one MP said, ‘Stay social distancing for two years before a vaccine is ready? You’re having a laugh.’
Not one MP said, ‘The lockdown has been the biggest mistake in history.’
A reader has sent me a comment he posted on the BBC News website yesterday. It was below a story saying “the maths” showed back in mid-March that the UK needed to change course or a quarter of a million people would perish in a “catastrophic epidemic”. To which the reader responded: “This is of course as inaccurate as Ferguson’s modelling. The model showed it, because the model was wrong. Box’s Aphorism says, ‘All models are wrong, but some are useful.’ I think it should be updated to: ‘All models are wrong, some are useful, but some are murderously toxic.'”
Another reader has sent this comment and I’ve received at least a dozen others like it:
Lockdown Sceptics has helped me retain my sanity through this mad period – thank you. The only other short, more emotional release came from the revelations about Neil Ferguson – rather like seeing your team score a goal but then having to knuckle down for a nerve-jangling second half.
I’m a QPR supporter so I know all about nerve-jangling second halves.
Two different people sent me this cartoon from an Australian newspaper:
A reader who’s an expert in cyber security has read the 4,000-word article published by GCHQ assuring us that the new NHS virus-tracing app is going to work brilliantly. He’s not impressed:
The whole thing reads like it has been written by a maths professor. It’s trying to say “so long as we are using Elliptic Curve Integration Encryption Schemes, ephemeral symmetric 128 bit keys and Advanced Encryption Standard in Galois Counter Mode, what could possibly go wrong?” All that theory is great but as politicians, civil servants and governments never seem to learn: In theory, theory and practice are the same, but in practice they are different. It is all the real-world, people-based problems that these schemes don’t anticipate and are their eventual downfall.
You can read the rest of his assessment, which I’ve published on Lockdown Sceptics, here.
A quick round-up of interesting articles I’ve spotted, or which readers have flagged up, in the last 24 hours:
- “The inside story of the UK’s NHS coronavirus ventilator challenge” – The Government doesn’t come out of this Guardian investigation well
- “Coronavirus lockdown could lead to nearly 1.5 million extra TB deaths, modelling study finds” – The story I referred to earlier, warning that lockdowns across the world have shut down TB treatment programmes which could lead to 1.4 million deaths
- “Germans Split Over Lifting of Lockdown” – Der Spiegel reports that Germans are becoming increasingly intolerant of restrictions on their movements
- “Models versus Evidence” – Good piece in Boston Magazine about how the argument over the effectiveness of lockdowns reveals two competing approaches to acquiring scientific knowledge
- “Sweden’s ‘Gentler’ Lockdown to Limit Economic Damage, SEB says” – Who would have thunk it? Not the IMF, apparently, which last month predicted a bigger hit to Sweden’s GDP as a result of the crisis than the UK’s
- “Now is the right time to start unwinding the furlough scheme” – Len Shackleton makes the case for ending the Government’s furlough scheme in CapX
- “Scotland will not recommend NHS coronavirus tracing app until ‘confident that it works’” – More woes for the NHS app
- “British Army goes back to training – but coronavirus measures keep tanks off limits” – Now would be a good time to invade, Vladimir
- “Is this a life worth living – or merely an existence?” – Great column in the Telegraph by the peerless Allison Pearson
- “Stress from virus response will destroy 7 times more years of life than lockdowns save: Study” – Another dog-bites-man piece, this one from the Washington Examiner
- “Is the Cure Worse Than the Disease?” – A useful round-up of sceptical articles from Straight Line Logic
- “Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience” – A guide to rebooting the US economy by Harvard’s Edmund J Safra Center for Ethics
- “Virgin Atlantic cuts jobs in a fight for survival” – Virgin Atlantic has shut down operations at Gatwick Airport and laid off a third of its staff
- “Why Precautionary COVID-19 Lockdowns Failed Humanity” – Good article by the Riskmonger on why governments around the world have become hamstrung by the precautionary principle
And finally, a story to brighten your day: police in Lancashire have withdrawn a fine imposed on a pair of sisters in Preston who had gone to the docks for some exercise. The sisters – members of the same household – had driven to the docks to take a walk around the basin for some exercise and fresh air, according to the Lancashire Post. An eagle-eyed local constable spotted them and promptly issued two, on-the-spot, £60 fines. Well done to Patrick Ormerod, the sisters’ solicitor, who forced the police to withdraw the fine.
Suggestions for this site’s theme tune continue to flood in: The Model by Kraftwerk (although Ferguson’s model isn’t “looking good”), School’s Out by Alice Cooper (horribly appropriate, given that it doesn’t look like secondaries will reopen until September) and From a Distance by Bette Midler.
Thanks as ever to those who made a donation yesterday to pay for the upkeep of Lockdown Sceptics. If you feel like donating, you can do so by clicking here. (Every little helps!) And if you want to flag up any stories or links I should include in tomorrow’s update, you can email me here. Incidentally, thanks to all those who’ve sent stuff in over the last few weeks. Some real gems there. Keep ’em coming.
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I hope the moderator will let me re-post this, my last comment on the previous thread, as one of the first comments on this one. We could all do with some positivity right now and this is one of the most positive things I’ve read – Charles Eisenstein’s stunning, powerful, deeply moving, and ultimately inspirational essay about this crisis: “THE CORONATION”. I will link to both written essay and audio version: https://charleseisenstein.org/essays/the-coronation/ https://youtu.be/wTISp3I2r5g Let me add…….. Since this crisis started, a whole series of dominoes has been falling in my mind, almost daily. This time is, I believe, an extraordinary turning-point for humanity, and if we can navigate our way through it without the would-be tyrants succeeding with their power grab, we may emerge with an entirely new (and massively saner) vision for ourselves and our planet. Here’s one “domino”: The trigger for the crisis was a DISEASE from CHINA The CHINESE pictogram for “DISEASE” translates literally into English as “DANGEROUS OPPORTUNITY”. I’ve been telling my ‘chronic pain’ physio clients this for years. “Mrs. Bloggs, the Chinese word for ‘disease’ means ‘dangerous opportunity’. The ancient Chinese were clever people, they knew that an illness is often an opportunity to fix… Read more »
Years ago (it stuck with me) I read somewhere that the Chinese say ‘a crisis is an opportunity on a dangerous wind.’ So much the same as you Gracie, thus this is my endorsement of your post.
And there behaviour vis a vis the attempted aquisition of foreign companies during this shitshow would bear that out….. 😉
“The mistakes these liberal policy-makers have made are depressingly familiar to anyone who’s studied the breed: overestimating the ability of the state to solve complicated problems as well as the capacity of state-run agencies to deliver on those solutions; failing to anticipate the unintended consequences of large-scale state interventions; thinking about public policy in terms of moral absolutes rather than trade-offs; chronic fiscal incontinence, with zero inhibitions about adding to the national debt; not trusting in the common sense of ordinary people and believing the only way to get them to avoid risky behaviour is to put strict rules in place and threaten them with fines or imprisonment if they disobey them (and ignoring those rules themselves, obviously); arrogantly assuming that anyone who challenges their policy preferences is either ignorant or evil; never venturing outside their metropolitan echo chambers; citizens of anywhere rather than somewhere… you know the rest. We’ve seen it a hundred times before.”
Spot on, I think. And a number of other zingers in today’s piece, as well.
I’d add ‘collapsing scientific knowledge into dogma’ and failing to understand that ‘science is believing in expert ignorance’, as Richard Feynman so masterfully put it
Another excellent read. Thank you so much.
Just listened to the Brendan O’Neill show with Lionel Shriver. She brilliantly articulates everything that is wrong about the Lockdown and the British peoples’ attitude to it. Well worth a listen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6YYI7nPy-0
Brilliant Toby. Our sanity thanks you. How many hours are there in your day?
I;m listening to the same broadcast. she brilliantly encapsulates everything I have been posting on social media for weeks.
As a middle-aged man who has no respect for Ferguson (heard his doomsday, Leftie scenarios one too many times), I knew exactly how this story would play out … except that I didn’t see the lockdown coming. why should I have done? We have never reacted this way before in the face of a virus which, it turns out, is not as deadly or even as transmissible as we have been told.
To anyone reading this post, I strongly recommend that you click through to the link Tim provided. Lionel Shriver talks for about an hour but she is well worth listening to.
Brilliant. Risk aversion is the new credo. Emoting has replaced rationality.
In tandem with the replacement of scientific knowledge by dogma.
Keep up the excellent work, Toby! Slightly pedantically – the spelling is Staats.
YouTube already has a handy ‘how to pronounce’ video up!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buGjy8rn1BQ
So true about the sort of advice on offer to government by Lefty advisers.
Perhaps even more significant is what it says about the governments that choose such advisers. If we ever do get a Conservative government, it will be fascinating to see whom they approach for advice. Mind you, I don’t expect to see that issue answered in my lifetime!
“Nor do I believe in any of the conspiracy theories linking these public health panjandrums to Bill Gates and Big Pharma and some diabolical plan to vaccinate 7.8 billion people.”
Dr Judy Mikovits would disagree. Another re-post, this one is highly disturbing:
https://plandemicmovie.com
– but as the written intro below the movie suggests, the final outcome of understanding – and rectifying – what appears to be going on behind the scenes, might be hugely positive.
The Bill & Melinda Gates foundation has hugely monopolised global health systematically and strategically in the last 10-15 years, ever since he decided to go “philanthropic”. To assume that BG isn’t trying to sway things his way in this Coronavirus crisis is nothing short of naive. That is not to say he released a virus in order to make money or sell a vaccine, no, it’s about the most cut throat and second wealthiest entrepreneur of all times buying – read: funding – his way into state health systems and ultimately governments worldwide through enormous sponsorship campaigns, overtly and covertly, to influence governmental policies. He (among others) has short-term as well as long-term agendas and all companies involved in this have the words digital dictatorship written all over them. Everyone needs to get off the “this is a conspiracy theory” crap and simply follow the evidence… From cut-throat computer entrepreneur to big wise daddy; a report in The Nation: https://www.thenation.com/article/society/bill-gates-foundation-philanthropy/ Short term agenda – monopoly on global health – have a look at Corbett report: https://www.corbettreport.com/gateshealth/ Longterm agenda – ID2020 / a totalitarian state of the world: https://www.globalresearch.ca/coronavirus-causes-effects-real-danger-agenda-id2020/5706153 Why exactly is the British government flinging about ideas of immunity passports… Read more »
And in case anyone is in any doubt what a digital dictatorship looks like, here is a sneak preview https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-18/china-social-credit-a-model-citizen-in-a-digital-dictatorship/10200278 There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that this is where Gates et. al. intend to drive this pandemic of opportunity if they possibly can. They have been infiltrating global organizations and state governments as well as the charity sector, non profits and academia for at least 2 decades. The playbook was already written and when Covid19 pressed the start button the machinery ground into action. It’s no coincidence in my view that the response of so many sovereign nation states has been to uniformly and simultaneously construct the infrastructure for the digital dictatorship. Even the language “New normal” is being spoken by almost all Western governments. This kind of homogeneity doesn’t happen by accident. Palantir is now busy building the database for both UK and US. and Onfido is building the immunity passport software also for both countries. I’m certain the UK and US at least will end up joined up. I believe the new normal they want to usher in is a communist technocracy and we will be very lucky if we can derail the process now… Read more »
Oh look, the supreme ruler of the universe wants into education next
https://twitter.com/ActivistPost/status/1258213319862824960
A couple of articles on this here
https://www.ukcolumn.org/coronavirus
“People in Britain are more scared of coronavirus than those in other countries because they care more about their fellow citizens, the first international study into fear of the disease has concluded. The research carried out by a team from the University of Cambridge found that a British sense of social responsibility was fuelling the highest levels of concerns over the risk posed by Covid-19.” Don’t believe this for a moment. I mean, I can certainly believe we might nowadays be the most scare-mongered, fearful, cowardly nation of pussies in the world (on this issue at any rate – there’s ample evidence to support that), but I don’t for a moment believe such a cosily convenient, self-aggrandising cover story as the idea that it’s all – or even most – out of noble, altruistic concern for “others”. I know that’s what people are told to say, and often what they do say, and I don’t doubt many might even believe it. We human beings are famously good at deluding ourselves as to our own motivations. But reality tells me it’s not the case. The constant evidence in the streets of people shrinking away from each other in evident personal fear.… Read more »
I agree wholeheartedly. I have noticed on Social Media that there appear to be vast numbers of people who have swallowed the Lockdown-ista propaganda Hook Line and Sinker, forever quoting “You don’t care about lives” or “Lives before money” or some other irrational nonsense. That observation is confirmed by the recent opinion polls concluding that the majority of the country want the lockdown to continue, . It occurs to me that the majority of these poltroons are below the median age of the UK, 40, and know they are at materially no risk from this disease (how stupid do you have to be not to have gleaned, even if by osmosis that the young are not in danger), the people they are claiming to be protecting are the old since the vast majority of the victims are past retirement age. The truth is that they are suffering from Coronophobia and are only interested in themselves, their concern for the old being slaughtered by this virus is as bogus as Mrs Staat’s fidelity. These Coronaphobics are not endeavouring to protect the lives of those actually at risk, rather they are trying to mitigate the minuscule risk to themselves that they will… Read more »
Yes, I agree. I get the impression there’s a lot more real fear of this disease in the younger groups, though there are a fair few nervous oldies about. I suspect your poll would be a lot closer than the general polling anyway.
Aged 75, I vote (2)
Change the wording of (1) to Reduce the risk of you catching Covid-19 by spending the rest of your natural life in solitary confinement, shutting down the economy and harming the economic future of your grand children
They must all think they’re being so virtuous.
Pass me the sick bag!
They may change their minds too late when they find they can’t get a plumber, electrician, builder, decorator, gardener etc. because they were all driven out of business.
Agreed – if everything was open tomorrow, people would be “shocked” with how many “fearless” citizens there are…
If the furlough scheme’s 80% does drop to 60% as suggested in the media, I predict a 25% drop in this ‘level of concern for others’.
Following my discussion with my mate the other day, it’s evident they use community mindedness as an excuse – I quote – “but you live in a community” – bit when pressed dissolve into what what they actually think – “Well if anyone I lived with was regularly going outside I’d make them live in the shed”.
I think that is the exact reason. People can think i can get 80 %for doing nothing then why i would work for 20%. It is bad, isn’t ?
Spot on. Every time someone walks away from me now, I walk towards them 🙂
Surely, Sander van der Linden is male not female. Sander is a pretty common Dutch male first name!
Thank you, Sue, for your fascinating report on the code behind the ICL model! I know very little about coding and I suspect that our leaders know even less.
Piers Corbyn is a lockdown sceptic. In fact, he is a pandemic sceptic. I wonder if Jeremy Corbyn, as Prime Minister, would have listened to his brother and resisted pressure to panic, and what people’s reactions would have been. Alas, we shall never know.
He didn’t pay much attention to the fact that Piers is also a climate skeptic. I think politics would have trumped science on this issue as well.
Personally I think Jezza would’ve loved to have the economy (evil evil capitalism) at his beck and call a bit too much and we’d still be in the same situation.
Regardless of Jeremy Corbyn’s personal views, we’ve seen very litle commitment to liberty in the tory, labour, lib dem, snp or green parties. I don’t think there are enough people in politics who care about quaity of life, in any party, for any plausible administration made of members of any current party to have taken a sane anti-lockdown course through this. Whoever was PM, even if it was someone rational, too many in their party and every other party would be pulling toward the lockdown apocalypse.
According to the Daily Mail more people have died from Covid19 than died in the blitz . They probably got this idea for a line of attack from the US media which led the attack on Trump with Covid19 had killed more Americans then the Vietnam war.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-coronavirus-death-toll-vietnam-war-american-fatalities-a9489241.html
Actually the number of UK fatalities from Covid19 occurs every 3 weeks from all cause mortality and on a fun fact note more people died on the roads of Britain during WW2 , probably due to the blackout than actually died during the blitz . Nearly 10,000 were killed in the worst year on the roads 1941.
My great grandad used to drive trucks during the war and said it was the most dangerous job you could have. It’s why I’m still much in adiraion of the Queen and her driving job during the war.
Toby, thank you for your contribution to the GWPF webinar yesterday, it was very interesting. I had hoped the moderator would have highlighted the essence of a question I posed, amongst all the others, which was echoed by some others, and that is why the group of people who can weigh up real world pros & cons to a theoretical hypothesis (such as Ferguson’s model) are never present at the policy table, i.e. ENGINEERs, or in the medical world, practitioners. Would love to see your thoughts on that.
Toby Young, you’re a legend. Thank you once more for your great work.
We may be just starting the second half but I sense that we Lockdown Sceptics have the wind in our sails now …*
(*not sure if this works, being neither a football fan or a sailor, but I’m sure you get the gist of what I’m saying!’
Also, I do hope that you write a book about all this that you mentioned on London Calling.
The following may provide interesting background research on how we got here:
– Scared to Death: From BSE to Global Warming: Why Scares are Costing Us the Earth by Christopher Booker
– Groupthink: A Study in Self Delusion by Christopher Booker (thanks for posting quote from it the other day), and
– How Fear Works: Culture of Fear in the Twenty-First by Frank Furedi
Brilliant today, Toby.
Let’s hope this doesn’t go to extra time or penalties. The agony….
Toby, thanks again for curating your special island of sanity! I LOVED your piece in the Spectator this morning! Dear me, the jokes do write themselves, don’t they! I have been wondering about the role of climate activism in lockdown zealotry. I have a hypothesis. Lots of people have their pet fears – climate change, immigration, overtourism. And they desperately wish those problems would go away, but they are powerless to do much to stop them. So when a phenomenon comes on the scene that actually allows them to force everyone to stop doing the thing they hate, they jump on it. Climate activists want to end airplane travel (flygskaam) and use of fossil fuels for transportation – well, COVID has granted them that wish! Millions of people would like to see an end to immigration from poor countries into rich ones – hey presto, COVID has closed the borders! Want to visit Venice and actually be able to walk freely? You can’t, but if you could, Venice is delightfully uncrowded! Anyone who has ever driven in Atlanta has imagined what it would be like without 5 million cars on the highway all at once. Driving there during the COVID… Read more »
Exactly Mimi. The suggestion that nobody would do things for a political motive under the guise of science or medicine is preposterous and devoid of historic memory…. does anyone recall a little period in history called the Cold War? Scientists, academics and subversives ahoy parading as one thing it wearing red underwear at all times.
This is mankind. Since when did mankind never do anything for political or personal gain that involved insidious methods ? Have we all of a sudden become angels ? Was Blair completely innocent of his filthy untruths over WMD? It seems nowadays nobody screws up or tries to hide anything. Nonsense.
Nothing’s changed. People are still underhand and will try to hide their mess ups. People still want to push their agenda using any means necessary in certain cases. It’s our perception of these things that’s changed and the fact anyone who questions those in authority’s methods is automatically labelled a crackpot conspiracy theorist. Cue people getting away with whatever they like…..
The epitome of counter-productivity….and we will come to regret it if we keep this up.
Just quoting the summary in this brilliant,short and straightforward article by Giesecke in the Lancet
“In summary, COVID-19 is a disease that is highly infectious and spreads rapidly through society. It is often quite symptomless and might pass unnoticed, but it also causes severe disease, and even death, in a proportion of the population, and our most important task is not to stop spread, which is all but futile, but to concentrate on giving the unfortunate victims optimal care.”
The tube map is wonderful! And highly depressing.
Not to mention how excited they must be about the impending meat shortage!
I’m sure Bill Gates is. He’s heavily invested in lab grown meat after all..
I love the tube map! A shame “currency” is spelled wrong…
…and passes!
Who did the model for the 6.3 million additional cases of TB and 1.4 million deaths which you seem to accept withtout scepticism? Researchers including those from Imperial!
The irony was not lost on me: models competing with each other to predict disaster. However, the TB modelling is, I think, based on more straightforward, mundane facts than the Covid one.
It does make me think: if you purport to be modelling the world, and to know the effects of something like a virus, then before you go making policy recommendations like lockdown, shouldn’t you also plot graphs for the other diseases, the effect on the economy, food supply, mental health, etc. etc.? Then a proper reckoning of the various death counts can be drawn up…
For me, it illustrates what scientists are good for, and what they are not. They have no business recommending policy! And even politicians should keep their noses out of people’s real lives as much as possible, for they, too, cannot begin to quantify what their meddling will do.
Not the best of days, media-wise, for Neil Ferguson, it seems. The hatchets are well and truly out everywhere apart from the BBC, of course.
Having worked in a university for many years, I do wonder what the VC and governing body of Imperial College will be making of the current situation re Fergie, particularly in relation to how it affects the university’s international reputation?
Will they be thinking:
a) ‘there is no such thing as bad publicity’ and leave him where he is?
b) promote the guy to get him out of the way?
c) invite him to lunch with the VC (we know what that means – I have seen it happen more than once)?
d) something else?
In view of the onslaught he is currently undergoing Ferguson could decide to escape by joining the Bill Gates Foundation (or similar), (on big bucks, no doubt), but whether Gates would want ‘soiled goods’ may now be an issue.
Any views?
How could Gates be worried by soiled goods when he’s in bed with the Deputy Vaccine Antichrist himself, Anthony Fauci?
Bit late for that now !
I think the evisceration of Ferguson’s model, linked to in this article should be sufficient for Imperial and everywhere else to wash their hands of him.
Moreover, I would not advise any of his Post-Grads to put him on their CV when moving on. They’d be better off putting the 3 year gap in the resumé as “doing a spot of bird in The Scrubs for selling weed” than mentioning the Harbinger of Hell.
The post just now by ChrisH29 listing what Imperial has received from Bill Gates means my questions are irrelevant as IC seems to a subsidiary of the BG Foundation. Nuff said.
Perhaps a ‘sabbatical’ with the WHO?
The man is scum but the idiots are the ones that listen to him without having different views from other scientists. If the government do not dismiss him immediately then god help us all. My question is why are our doctors so quiet when doctors from all over the world are speaking out against this massive scam.
All watch plandemicthemovie.com
Totally true whoever you are. Bang on.
More please …..
As a doctor I’m disappointed to inform you that almost all my medical colleagues are lockdown enthusiasts.
My theory is simply that this is due to having a world view focused entirely through a medical prism, and the kind of ignorance and disinterest in wider economic realities which only well paid public sector employees with unmatched job security and superannuated pensions can afford.
Oh, and that Thursday evening clapping adulation thing doesn’t exactly encourage any dissent from medical Groupthink.
A number of doctors in the U.S. think the lockdown is BS. A number of them are also currently furloughed, which probably helps, but not all. They just keep their heads down to avoid offending – doctors generally being good at following rules and not interested in political action.
As a doctor myself I would agree there is a certain groupthink and I thought better of replying to a group letter from a colleague on the LMC extolling the virutes of the lockdown in bringing the hospital death toll down. However I do detect murmurred scepticism as well. as a rule of thumb the younger and less experienced the medic the greater the enthousiasm for the lockdown.
First off, I believe matters pertaining to this shutdown transcends the political spectrum.
I’m left of centre; and I fervently oppose this shutdown.
Please, can someone explain to me how supporting a shutdown of livelihoods and freedoms is at all left of centre? Authoritarianism is not left of centre. It is right of centre. I’m surrounded by people who lean so far to the right they’re grazing their shoulder on the ground, and these people are the most fearful. Supporting government involvement in our lives is not left of centre.
Can someone please shed some light on this endless, deplorable obsession with left and right in relation to this shutdown? Because, quite obviously, I’m not understanding it.
I hope what unites us here is a love of freedom, a healthy skepticism of authority and plain common sense.
Absolutely.
In extremis there is but a fag paper between Left and Right, they’re both tyrannical nightmares.
As I’ve said before, I think a much more useful analysis would be social class and age, I think that’d tell us a lot, I think it’s a posh panic by those who can afford to panic as they are cushioned, and those perhaps insulated from the harsher of some of life’s realities. I mean if you drive a van for amazon on zero hours, how is your life any different really? Feel any safer?
According to this Atlantic article, there is a clear left/right divide in the US, with Democrats seeking to play up the covid threat and Republicans to play it down:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/how-republicans-and-democrats-think-about-coronavirus/608395/
That gibes with my own impressions, that leftists tend to like it because it plays into their general enthusiasm for big government, collective healthcare, social solidarity etc. That was also suggested by a US study Toby linked to last Saturday:
https://heterodoxacademy.org/social-science-liberals-conservatives-covid-19/
I don’t think it’s as easy to do that kind of study here because there is less dissent generally. But I still think there is a leaning to the right in the resistance here, it’s just that it is suppressed a bit by the fact that we have a “Conservative” Party government in charge at the moment, so there’s a degree of suspension of dissent for partisan reasons.
Left libertarians tend to balk at the liberty crushing aspects but they most likely still feel a bit warm and fuzzy about the other aspects despite those concerns.
Good article. There is certainly something to be said for the epicenter location and attitudes towards the virus, especially given the fact republicans obsess over firearms and protection. Perhaps they’d feel differently if it was on their doorstep, perhaps not.
Anyway, right and left are amorphous labels of entirely questionable utility. Surely, only a moron could categorise every single one of their beliefs at one end of the spectrum. Sod absolutes!
Whatever the political position is, I don’t care. I’m anti-lockdown, and I want a pint of cask ale with my chums.
Great work on here.
I agree, anti-lockdown is what matters.
The labels are useful, but as you rightly say, only up to a point, they’re just generalisations after all. It’s a bit like when I was dissenting over the Iraq war back in 2002/3, the government label rather confused the opposition to the war because normally conservatives quite like a good war, are more likely to be pro-US, and are very easily persuaded that an Arab dictator is a legitimate target, whereas leftists are harder to persuade on all three (not left-labelled governments – they warmonger with the best of them, Harold Wilson aside, from Wilson, FDR and Johnson in the US to Blair in the UK, but actual leftie voters).
In the end the leaderships of both parties pushed the war, shamefully for all concerned, and I had to rub shoulders with a lot of mostly perfectly decent lefties in the only political demo I ever went on in my life (conservatives don’t do demonstrations, generally). Mind you, the utter ineffectiveness of that demo rather confirmed my prejudice against demonstrating in general.
My first comment on this website was concerning my desire to protest publicly against this lockdown, though I don’t have a propensity for activism. No doubt such a protest would involve me rubbing shoulders with people whose opinions I disagree with. So long as they are reasonable, what matters eh?
This site has been terrific for rational conversation, and hasn’t at all stooped to ranting quarrels.
IDK, maybe this is changing alignments. I thought of myself as pretty much on the left in the U.S., sort of by default. I’ve found most Republican rhetoric pretty repugnant for the past couple of decades, and was appalled when Trump was elected. I don’t love all of the Democratic platform, though. I’ve often wished for a party that split the difference – socially liberal but fiscally conservative. Maybe that’s libertarian now, but they’re mostly a fringe element here. The people who most passionately own their Democratic allegiance seem to be the most dogmatic lockdown zealots. They’re the ones who immediately dismiss any contrary story as “not news.” This experience is giving me an appreciation for Tucker Carlson, of all people, and has actually had me saying “Thank god for Fox News.” And it’s not just me. My husband and sister and her husband, too. We have science degrees (actual science, not the kind you “follow”) and have never seen why people are getting excited about the numbers of cases/deaths or the way they’ve been portrayed. It seems that the NYT, the Post, and CNN are just plain lying. They are engaging in advocacy of a specific viewpoint re COVID,… Read more »
I agree about Tucker Carlson, he was great I remember back during the Republican Presidential nomination campaign. He’s quite bright and unusually freethinking for a political commentator I think.
“socially liberal but fiscally conservative”
Yes, that was the Libertarian Party, back in the day. but as you say, they aren’t going to win any elections.
I’m the same, but with Brexit, then the appalling performance of Labour activists during the election just trying to ‘cancel’ everyone, like some kind of mob (ditto the fringe loonie Brexiteers, I think Nigel Farage should be fired into outerspace along with Momentum, all crack pots), and then this, I came to be just grateful for what an unlikely but rather miraculous thing democracy and civil debate can be, and how grateful I felt for decent, honorable, honest, well reasoned views, how we need that debate, and middle ground and give and take, and respect for other views. I think our political class on both sides been taking the p*ss out of the social contract for quite some time, and all that upheaval made me realise we shouldn’t take it for granted, it’s more fragile than we think. In short, I realised I needed to grow up, and accept I might passionately feel this, that didn’t negate someone else’s right to passionately feel something else. And how disagreement is important and good, as is listening, it’s how we solve problems. It’s the dogmatism (whatever the issue) I can’t bear. I’ve never voted Tory in my life (then again as part… Read more »
I believe all of Sumption’s commentary on this has been exceptional.
Also, I don’t have anyone in my life I agree with completely. And I have many people in my life.
Exactly, so do I, but I’ve had lots of conversations with friends about how they vote, or what “team” they are on about various issues, it’s amazing how much of it isn’t really what they believe, but they’ve sort of arrived at that ‘team’ because they are the ‘good’ team, it’s more emotional, or tribal than actually considered. Then lockdown came along, and I realise I’ve how far I’ve moved away from things I just reflexively accepted as ‘right’ or ‘true’. (which is why I’m not explaining it very well, still figuring it out).
In case you haven’t seen it, this is quite a good book on the general issue of to what extent our moral judgements are preset to put us in one team or the other, and how much we can overcome that:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0076O2VMI
I’m disappointed with some of my friends currently too. They are just not interested in flexing their questioning muscle. I didn’t mind providing articles and data, and some sensible analysis, but it proved useless, because they can’t get over that first hurdle of skepticism. They trust the government and its advisors unequivocally. So, I’ve stopped providing information. No doubt there will be some exchanges in the pub about it all later, of which will consist of, I believe, me bragging about being correct! – hopefully. That relies on this all being exposed as a giant farce, of course.
It will also depend on whether there are any pubs left open and viable after all this lot. If there are, you may have to produce your Orwellian tracking device to get in, and a sign on the wall will remind you that “all conversation is monitored and recorded by HM Government.” Best to just talk about football. (If that’s still happening.)
I don’t think that there is any doubt at all about this being a giant farce- the biggest farce is that HMG have not looked at any of the blindingly obvious results of leading scientists worldwide. They insist on pumping out inflated numbers and then Facebook is full of people sharing and insisting that we all stay in for another hundred years or so. I have never felt so desperate or helpless in my life.
In the US at least, the breakdown is hard left vs. right for the zealots vs. skeptics. Unfortunately this has been conflated with support or hatred for the President. Politics should never have had anything to do with this.
I firmly believe zealots in the US are towing the party line because they dislike the President. That matter plus their personal investment in the lockdown and propensity for virtue signaling results in an almost unbeatable wall of zealotry. These are intelligent, educated people who believe this because they wouldn’t even consider questioning it let alone be open-minded.
Excellent as ever – thanks Toby – and from a fellow ‘R’s supporter to boot 🙂
It seems to me that things are starting to unblock – on my (wholly unnecessary) trip to my local town today, it was evident that there were far more people about (and no social distancing at the local carwash).
The Swedish advice on social distancing is spot-on – I’ve been advising one local organisation not to include reference to SD in their advice to members as to when they can reopen, as the Gov’t will create face-saving Rules which will be honoured only in the breach.
Keep on keeping on!
PS – Here’s a Latin tag for Boris: Tacitus (on the Roman subjugation of the Scots):
“Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant” – “where they create devastation (this also translates as isolation), they call it peace”.
It’s trivial, but I am very glad Matt Ridley is a fellow skeptic. Always seemed like a dependable chap.
But I was stunned (and saddened) to discover that Melanie Philips is a lockdownista. Quite extraordinary – perhaps she has a crush on Boris [there is, after all, no accounting for taste!].
SORRY FOR THE ESSAY. PUT THE KETTLE ON! Toby… as you know and as I have told you you are my favourite lockdown crusader extraordinaire…. But I’m afraid your point re Gates being the benevolent altruistic Saviour not wanting to vaccinate 7.8 billion people…is ….. incorrect. The little darling openly states that IS his intention on his blog…which reads: ‘We need to manufacture and distribute at least 7 billion doses of the vaccine.’ Here’s the link to his blog and that article as I am sure you want to be as informed as you can: https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/What-you-need-to-know-about-the-COVID-19-vaccine And no the Russians didn’t create the page. Nor did aliens or Paddington Bear. It’s quite real. Readers may wish to keep up with Gates’ musings of global medical megalomania…whilst he proffers himself as the man about to save the world he also openly admits there are too many people in it, along with his weaselly bum-pal Antony Fauci. Please all watch https://youtu.be/k-moc9EIgbg Before it mysteriously gets taken down (again) by Stasi-Tube. It’s 26 minutes but have a G&T while you’re watching …… We are sadly and dangerously getting to a stage now where rigorous and legitimate information is being totally ignored by highly… Read more »
I for one would like the flow chart.
For the sake of completeness it is worth noting that Gates has paid the following to Imperial:
2020 $ 79,006,570
2019 $ 2,646,785
2018 $ 2,696,803
2017 $ 3,448,111
2016 $ 48,046,547
2015 $ 17,710,069
2014 $ 391,988
2013 $ 14,518,642
2012 $ 7,741,002
2011 $ 2,924,038
2010 $ 7,385,664
2009 and prior $102,266,365
YES. As far as I’m concerned “follow the money” is the most modern manifestation of Occam’s Razor.
‘cui bono ?’ preceded Occam, yes ?
It’s interesting how people’s political starting point influences their interpretation of this!
Some of us see in the lockdown the continuation of a pattern that started last year with the B word: that this government is defined by its willingness to crash the economy in return for popularity.
Although many people do believe that Brexit is a good thing and I respect those views, I don’t think Johnson ever believed that any more than he paid any attention to Ferguson or his bad science.
Of course Ferguson and his girlfriend are awful lefties with everything that implies (and your rant is spot on) but don’t tell me he was anything other than a prop in this. He was the justification for a populist lockdown and subsequently for the claim that Johnson saved half a million lives. I’m sure they made it worth his while.
Earlier I mentioned my “falling dominoes”. Time for another one. This has long been one of my favourite poems, and I wasn’t sure why it resonated with me so much. But a few weeks into this crisis it hit me with full force. It could almost have been written for THIS very point in human history, with its themes of prisoners (lockdown!), springtime, awakening, wrongs and evils (Gates? Rights violations?) and its clarion-call for a transformation of the human psyche into something that can “go the lengths of God”. A SLEEP OF PRISONERS. Christopher Fry (1917-2005) The human heart can go the lengths of God… Dark and cold we may be, but this Is no winter now. The frozen misery Of centuries breaks, cracks, begins to move; The thunder is the thunder of the floes, The thaw, the flood, the upstart Spring. Thank God our time is now when wrong Comes up to face us everywhere, Never to leave us till we take The longest stride of soul we ever took. Affairs are now soul size. The enterprise Is exploration into God. Where are you making for? It takes So many thousand years to wake, But will you wake for… Read more »
I agree with your many other readers; you have helped me stay sane too! Please keep up the great work; our voices will need to be heard just as clearly in the next few weeks as they have in the last few.
Here’s a great stat: the median death age of coronavirus (82) is greater than average human life expectancy (79)
Brilliant!
Strange, my source has the numbers reversed, Median age 81.4, coronavirus death 79.5. It was some time ago so I would be interested to know the timing and source of your stat.
Thanks.
82.9 for women; 79.2 for men (who suffer much worse of course!)
Song suggestion: “Death Walks Behind You” by Atomic Rooster. Great site and information – much appreciated.
Interesting video by one of many “amateurs” looking at the stats, namely a certain Andrew Mather, businessman and mathematician.
He makes the point that the “virus” is now acting in a very “un-virus-like” way; inexplicable by any known microbiology; totally explicable if Governments are inventing/massaging figures in order to prolong the lockdown – to serve whatever agenda they (or their overlords) have planned for us.
https://youtu.be/imrLwM97i0k
How accurate this is I don’t know, being hopeless at maths and graphs, but maybe other maths/stats graduates or even a professional medical statistician could review Mather’s conclusions to see if they’re valid.
Mather has no doubt about what to do if his suspicions are correct. In his words, “it’s pitchfork time” and those responsible should spend the rest of their lives in jail.
Ferguson did what he did and it was wrong but the real mistake was done by others who listened him without challenging him. How a country could rely on a single adviser more than on others.
Our prime minister has twice now refused to use the ‘austerity’ word to sum up the next 5-10 years of government. So, could we make up our own suggestions for what he might call this period of his premiership and thereafter? Based upon my own ‘scientific modelling’ (not subject to peer review or wider rational thought), it will in all probability involve the following: • A prolonged recession (50% probability of a depression). • Mass unemployment (100% probability). • Significantly higher taxes for middle and high earners – there is a high probability in my modelling that this will initially be blocked (60%), but a 90% probability of materialisation. • Government debt to gdp more akin to those previously recorded by italy and greece. There is a high probability (90%) that unlike the previous period known as ‘austerity’, the government will instead accept this manifestation as the ‘new norm’ of economic behavioural management. This will raise two key scientific questions – what was the point of the previous period of austerity?; what if we face another ‘critical event’ in the near future (the ‘oh dear’ scientific and moral conundrum). • Although interest rates will be lower, a 100% probability that… Read more »
This can’t be true. I have it on high authority that the magic money tree will pay for everything and our economy will boom, with unlimited public spending and free jam for everyone. I mean we all know that governments can just make as much money as they want to just by typing on a keyboard, right? What could possibly go wrong?
Well, 100 billions have been spent on economic support. For me, it means £ 1500 per each of us. That’s a lot of money to pay back in the system. Who is gonna pay for it?