The Sunday Times reports that the Strategic Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has been told that the British death toll from COVID-19 could climb above 100,000 by the end of the year if Boris Johnson eases the lockdown too much or too fast. These estimates come from researchers at the London School of Tropical Hygiene, the always-reliable Imperial College London and other places that have modelled the likely impact of of different exit policies. (Can we see the code please?) However, the paper doesn’t disclose whether this formed part of the advice given to the Government by SAGE when it last met on Thursday.
Boris Johnson’s address to the nation about “phase two” of the lockdown is expected to be at 7pm this evening. According to the Sunday Times, he will announce that:
- From tomorrow, the limit on one form of exercise a day will be scrapped, allowing people outdoors if they observe the two-metre social distancing rules. Staff at No 10 have been told that Johnson will begin jogging again this week
- Fines will be increased for those failing to abide by the new rules
- From Wednesday, garden centres will re-open
- The public will be advised – but not forced – to wear face coverings on public transport and in shops
- Within two weeks new arrivals in the UK will be required to go into isolation for 14 days, with quarantine centres set up for those who do not have a home where they can self-isolate.
- “Stay home, protect the NHS, save lives” will be replaced with “Stay alert, save lives”
On that last bullet point, it doesn’t look like Scotland will be ditching the “stay home” slogan. Sturgeon said on Twitter this morning that #StayHomeSaveLives “remains my clear message to Scotland at this stage”. According to the Mail, this has thrown Boris’s planned announcement into chaos.
I thought this would be a good moment to change the slogan of this website. It was: “Stay sane. Protect the economy. Save livelihoods.” However, given that more and more scientists and public health experts are warning that the lockdown will end up causing a greater loss of life than it prevents, I’ve changed it to: “Stay sceptical. End the lockdown. Save lives.”
It looks like Wales isn’t planning to abandon the “stay home” slogan either. Shame, but at least Wales has its very own lockdown sceptics website (no relation) called ‘We The People‘, or, rather, ‘Y Gwir yn Erbyn Y Byd’. Full of useful resources and links. Definitely worth a look.
Many of today’s papers have photographs of people enjoying the sunshine over the bank holiday weekend, suggesting the “stay home” message is beginning to lose some of its power in any event. Here’s one from the Mail:
The Prime Minister has given an interview to the Sun on Sunday‘s David Wooding in which he tries to lower expectations ahead of this evening’s announcement. He told the paper that the “descent” from a mountain is always the riskiest bit. “That’s when you’re liable to be overconfident and make mistakes,” he said. “You have very few options on the climb up – but it’s on the descent you have to make sure you don’t run too fast, lose control and stumble.” He added:
I said that we would turn the tide within three months. I believe we are definitely on course to do that.
The peak could have been colossal, we could have had an absolute disaster. We’re past the peak now but we’ll have to work very hard to get every step right.
We’ve beaten it, we’ve come through it, we can see the sunlight ahead and it is just a question now of making sure, as we come down that mountain, we don’t stumble. We mustn’t throw away the gains that we’ve made.
If everybody works together, we won’t. That’s the message.
Also in today’s Sun on Sunday is a poll revealing that nine in 10 people do not want Boris to ease the lockdown. Only one in 50 believe the restrictions have been in place for too long, with just 4% in favour of a gradual lifting of the lockdown starting this week. Almost a quarter – 24% – don’t want restrictions lifted before the end of July or until the virus has been completely eradicated. A reader has provided me with a quote that seems appropriate here:
Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.
Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
As usual, the Germans continue to put us to shame. Yesterday brought news of thousands of people protesting on the streets of Munich and thousands more in Stuttgart to demand the lifting of restrictions ordered by the German authorities.
I was taken aback to see a Government-sponsored spread in the Sun advising people to avoid “quack” treatments, such as “UV lights” and chloroquine. Quite surprising, given that there’s now a lot of evidence linking Vitamin D deficiency to an increased risk of death from the virus, as reported in the Sun yesterday, and mounting evidence that chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are effective treatments for COVID-19, as reported in the Sun on April 29th.
As I noted yesterday, the Institute of Strategic Dialogue (ISD) has decided to police social media to draw attention to fake news and conspiracy theories – and, embarrassingly, it refers to the hypothesis that the virus originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology as a “right-wing conspiracy theory” even though the same theory is being investigated by a consortium of Western intelligence agencies. Today, I’ve spotted that the ISD has done some work with Carl Miller, an employee of a left-wing think tank, for the BBC’s flagship technology programme, BBC Click, to identify the source of “disinformation and hate” about the pandemic on Facebook. And the culprit is… drum roll… “the global far right”.
If you watch the report Carl Miller has pulled together for the BBC with the help of Chloe Colliver, Head of Digital Policy for the ISD, you’ll see that among the toxic conspiracy theories they’ve identified is the claim that the virus was “engineered” and that chloroquine is an effective treatment for COVID-19. According to Miller, that last theory is “unproven and potentially dangerous”. Another dangerous idea, apparently, is the notion that the risk from the virus has been “overhyped” by governments and the media. Miller says the “disinformation” he and Colliver have uncovered could be “a lot more potent” than the disinformation pumped out by shady, far right organisations during election campaigns because it might “convince people to not listen to government advice about staying at home”. Miller concludes his report by telling us he passed on his findings to Facebook and received the following reply: “We have removed a number of links BBC Click shared with us for violating our policies on hate speech and the spread of harmful misinformation.”
If the BBC is going to employ left-wing busybodies to browbeat social media companies into censoring people who think SARS-CoV-2 was engineered in a biolab, that chloroquine is an effective treatment and that the risk posed by the disease has been overhyped, that’s one more reason to stop paying the license fee.
Yesterday, I drew readers’ attention to the robotic dog being used by the authorities in Singapore to make sure people follow the social distancing rules. Today, I bring news of an even more ingenious contraption, this one devised by a police force in India. Thanks to this over-sized pick-up reacher, the police can now arrest Covid dissidents without risking infection:
Good to see not all police officers are simply following orders and fining or arresting people for not complying with lockdown orders. A reader sent me this bitchute video of a US cop advising his colleagues that the constitutional rights of US citizens should not be suspended on the say-so of a mayor or a governor or a chief of police. “That’s not how this country works,” he reminds us. Well said, Officer Anderson.
One of the biggest stories of recent weeks has been the shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE). But what happens to this life-saving kit after it’s been used? One reader in Lincolnshire has found out:
Every time I go out on my bicycle round here I find bits of PPE scattered by the side of the road, usually the giveaway blue gloves. Here’s today’s find – a PPE mask evidently hurled out of a car window and decorating the verge near the village of Ropsley. Who’s the culprit? No idea, but it’s presumably a health worker of some sort who’s quite happy to chuck used PPE into the general environment rather than dispose of it safely.
And it’s not just here. A reader who lives in Malaga has alerted me to the same problem:
The first day we were allowed out everywhere was nice and clean and tidy. But every morning I go out there are masks and gloves littering the sides of the roads and in the hedgerows. I wonder what on earth goes through these twats’ heads. Clearly not very much.
It seems Lockdown Sceptics is gradually transforming itself from a blog into something more – although quite what that is remains to be seen. Yesterday, I published a follow-up by “Sue Denim” to his/her post about the shortcomings of Professor Ferguson’s code; today, I’m publishing a piece by Rob Lyons – real name this time – entitled ‘Public Health England: A Predictable Failure’. Lyons is scathing about the executive agency of the Department for Health and Social Care. Here’s an extract:
Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that PHE is a less-than-dynamic organisation. Far from being staffed by the brightest and the best, innovative and entrepreneurial, PHE is run by the usual quangocrats. These are people whose CVs describe a merry-go-round ride of one job after another for which they are, at best, only moderately qualified. Having delivered uninspiring leadership in one organisation, they move along to ‘lead’ another, accumulating vast pensions and titles along the way.
I was pleased to receive this message from a Labour Party voter. It’s not just the Conservative Party which is causing disillusionment among its most fervent supporters:
I’m an avid reader of your website. I’m not ordinarily someone who would find myself in agreement with you about most things – I’ve always voted Labour and was a Corbyn supporter, voting twice for him as leader. However, I’m appalled by the strategy of ‘lockdown’ and also the supine agreement of the Labour Party to this lunacy. I will also never, ever, buy a copy of the Guardian again.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned that coronavirus could kill up to 190,000 in Africa this year if it’s not adequately contained. My friend Aidan Hartley, Kenyan resident and Spectator Wild Life correspondent, points out that this isn’t very many in the grand scheme of things:
You are more likely to die of booze (174,000 cirrhosis) than Covid-19 in Africa (maybe 83,000 – 190,000 says the WHO had no measures been imposed – and some countries have been draconian). Africa’s traffic accidents will kill three times to a third more people than COVID-19. These WHO figures for virus deaths would rank just above “self-harm” in Africa, or at its worst, just above “interpersonal violence”. Africa’s main killers are still HIV, TB, malaria, respiratory diseases and dysentery, which kill 3.5 million combined. Those communicable diseases will now skyrocket as 100 million MORE Africans slide back into poverty due to the economic impacts of lockdown here and in the West.
A round-up of all the stories I’ve noticed, or which have been been brought to my attention, in the last 24 hours:
- ‘Statistician accuses ministers of failure to prioritise random COVID-19 testing‘ – Sir David Spiegelhalter has criticised the Government for not prioritising random antibody testing so we can build up a clear picture of how many Britons have had the virus, according to the Sunday Times
- ‘This care home carnage shames the nation‘ – Dominic Lawson berates the Department for Health and Social Care’s murderous policy of encouraging hospitals to discharge elderly patients back into care homes at the beginning of the lockdown, including those who’d tested positive for COVID-19
- ‘The virus that turned up late‘ – Post by Alistair Haimes for Hector Drummond’s blog in which he points out that the only difference between coronavirus and other outbreaks of nasty seasonal flu is that this virus turned up three months later than usual. Includes the great line: “When I complain about people fearfully embracing their incarceration I can no longer use the phrase ‘Stockholm Syndrome’, and that makes me angry.”
- ‘The strange case of the choir that coughed in January‘ – BBC story about a choir in Baildon, a village in West Yorkshire, that experienced a bout of a nasty, flu-like illness back in January that looks awfully like coronavirus. Was it circulating among the general population earlier than has been reported?
- ‘China Asked WHO To Delay Pandemic Announcement, Deny Human-To-Human Transmission: German Intelligence‘ – Zero Hedge on the German intelligence leak purporting to show that Xi Jinping asked WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Thebreyesus to cover up the severity of the coronavirus pandemic in January
- ‘Pandemic of Pillocks‘ – A Comedy Unleashed special devised by comedian Andrew Lawrence. Warning: Contains some smutty gags
- ‘Has our mad mass house arrest during COVID-19 saved even a single life?‘ – Peter Hitchens’ latest column in the Mail on Sunday
- ‘Locking up the elderly until coronavirus is defeated is a cruel mockery of basic human values‘ – Withering critique of the lockdown by Jonathan Sumption in last week’s Mail on Sunday. Can’t believe I missed this one
- ‘Wrecking entire economies: Lockdowns may be causing more harm than good worldwide, and especially in India‘ – Case against locking down India by Professor Ramesh Thakur in the Times of India
- ‘Toby Young on the Failure of the Lockdown‘ – Thought I’d give this a plug. It’s a YouTube video of me talking to the Post-Millennial‘s Nico Johnson about the biggest failure of public policy that’s ever happened during peacetime
Some more suggestions for theme songs from readers: ‘Eve of Destruction‘ by Barry Neil, ‘If You Tolerate This Your Children Will Be Next‘ by the Manic Street Preachers, ‘Steppin’ Out‘ by Joe Jackson (some hope) and, by way of tribute to the recently deceased Little Richard, ‘Whole Lotta Shaking Going On‘.
Thanks as always to those who made a donation in the last 24 hours to pay for the upkeep of the site. If you feel like donating, you can do so by clicking here. (Every little helps!) And if you want to flag up any stories or links I should include in tomorrow’s update, you can email me here.
I thought I’d end today’s update with a poem sent to me by Tiree MacGregor. Called ‘The Back-Pedalling Autocratic Functionary’ it was inspired by the words of Chief Constable Nick Alderly of Northamptonshire Police who said on April 9th: “We will not, at this stage, be setting up road blocks. We will not, at this stage, start to marshal supermarkets and be checking the items in baskets and trolleys to see whether it’s a legitimate, necessary item. But again, be under no illusion. If people do not heed the warnings and the pleas I’m making today, we will start to do that.”
Officious fool in uniform, what need
We of your subtle threats and dour commands?
Zealous for order, at whose pleasure do
You think you serve? If it be government’s
Or monarch’s, then think: At whose pleasure theirs?
Who has “illusions”? – And “necessity”?For you, your weapons formed of Hobbesian dread,
Where is our gentle Shakespeare, whose high art
Demolishes the thoughts that shape your head,
And, brother, what high ardour forms your heart?In copperspeak, you’re nicked: for threats won’t wash;
The velvet-covered cosh is still a cosh.
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Toby, it would be great if you could look into the elusive ‘COVID vaccine’ that is touted as the last hurdle to fully lift the lockdowns/restrictions. Unfortunately any views that challenge such claims are forcefully ‘censored’, respectable scientists are smeared and their evidence banned by social media. The following article “The Well-known hazards of Coronavirus vaccines” is a must read for all. https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/05/10/is-there-a-vaccine-for-coronavirus.aspx • “Coronavirus vaccine development has proven very difficult over the past 30 years, as the vaccines create very robust antibody response, but when the patient encounters the wild virus, they become severely ill and often die — a reaction known as paradoxical immune response or paradoxical immune enhancement. • To accelerate a virus’ evolution, you grow it in several types of animal tissue, such as pangolin kidney tissue followed by feral monkey kidney cells and mouse brain tissue. • Each time you transfer the virus to another animal tissue, mutations occur. There’s also evidence showing these animal cell lines are contaminated with Coronaviruses and retroviruses, which end up contaminating the vaccines grown in them. • Dangerous Coronavirus experiments led by Dr. Anthony Fauci went on in the U.S. until 2014 when President Obama ordered the work to… Read more »
According to the BBC it is a myth that the vaccine will be compulsory.
Yeah right it won’t be compulsory, unless you want to go somewhere or do somethiing
I think I may have won someone over the other day by saying : “So you can save 10- old and probably already ill- people’s lives by crippling 10,000 other people with a hammer to the knees. Do you do it?”
Certainly a good metaphor for the lockdown.
The current rough count in the USA is 500 jobs lost per 1 Coronavirus death. That was last week so we’re probably higher now.
And the worst of it is the old folks AREN’T saved, they are stuck into a coronavirus incubator to ensure they catch it.
Hydroxychloroquine is being used successfully in combination with an antibiotic by Dr Didier Raoult in his clinic in Marseilles. He is one of the few French doctors, if not the only one, to take an “alternative” position on covid19, and marched out of the scientific council around Macron, slamming the door behind him, because he disagreed with the lockdown policy, which he considers to be like something out of the Middle Ages.
I listened to his interviews and their protocol is working. He and his colleague are frustrated because of the attitude of the French government and they actually restricted the use of Hydroxycloroquine even though it’s been prescribed for years for arthritis and malaria. Another scientist was saying that possibly some of the cases would have recovered anyway but this sounded like professional jealousy. Scientists are their own worst enemies and we are the collateral damage.
I’d be wary of using info from RJFK jr. I know we should keep an open mind but, it’s high on the questionable scale.
However, Coronavirus is unlikely to find a useful vaccine based at the very least on the fact we have tried unsuccessfully on SARS Mears and the group Coronaviruses that come under the common cold umbrella.
So waiting for a vaccine is probably going to be like Waiting for Godot.
I found him a bit interesting in the past https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b00zf8gfBGI
Don’t be suckered in by the ‘got to have vaccine’ nonsense. If one comes along, refuse it. There’s enough suspicion out there on that, it would be riots if anyone said it was compulsory for anything. I can’t remember ever having a flu vaccine for example.
Just take your chances with covid, they really are remarkably good .
ianp: Don’t bet on riots. They’ve managed to brainwash so many of the UK population about this virus, that the majority will be queuing up to get it rather than protest against it.
I’ve only had a flu vaccine once, about 20+ years ago. I’ve never had one since, and neither have I caught the flu. I’m not planning on getting this WuFlu vaccine either.
If I was going to bet on riots I’d be betting on people rioting to be first in line for the vaccine. Fear and anger are often found riding in company.
I’m retired, so I’m in a fortunate position,but I absolutely sympathise with your position, and firmly believe that this lockdown has now gone on too long, endangering the livelihood of people such as yourself.
And I’m starting to feel imprisoned, with the statement by Grant Schapps and his bicycle-loving plans for future travel being the final nail in the proverbial coffin. This government and half the country seem to have lost their collective minds.
Flu vaccines are available every year, but we still get thousands of deaths:
US: “CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.”
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fflu%2Fabout%2Fdisease%2Fus_flu-related_deaths.htm
The WHO estimates between 290000-650000 annual deaths, globally, from seasonal flu. The figure is not projected or estimated, but based on feedback through the international ‘flu-net’ monitoring service. https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2017/flu/en/
“Fines will be increased for those failing to abide by the new rules”
This is the absolute worst response for a government that is finding people don’t take it’s laws seriously to adopt. All it will do is increase the feelings of bitterness and anger among the few who get picked on, while leaving the underlying problem of lack of credibility unaddressed.
Of course, the real problem is that the proper solution, of persuading people to their side, is difficult for them because they are so clearly living in a fantasy world in which we are faced by a fantasy “covebola” disease that is as infectious as flu but as deadly as ebola.
This means that despite the huge numbers seemingly willing to continue with a state-funded holiday, nevertheless every time they enter into any debate on the issue, hard reality is likely to intrude and make them look ridiculous again.
Why do I find proofreading so difficult? 😉 its, not it’s. Oh for an edit option!
Mark: not helped by autocorrection by some devices. You can type it in correctly, and the autocorrect function will change it to be incorrect.
Yes, I’ve had that plenty of times – a real pain especially if it autocorrects to American. Not sure I can blame it here though….
To err is human, but it feels divine! [Thanks, Mae]
I do agree about the state funded holiday, and honestly I have really mixed feelings as a result. I think that the lockdown is a terrible idea and will trash the economy and not save lives. But I really like working from home and being free to manage my own time. I do as much work as ever, but also have time to do other things when I would normally be “looking busy” at my desk. It’s not quite a holiday, but it really feels like it. On that level I would rather stay locked down.
Actually I don’t mind about increasing fines for legitimate wrong doing; parties and suchlike; when it also comes with a clear direction that you can do other normal stuff like walk the dogs and let’s your kids play outside. Much as I don’t like the lockdown, if we must have one then taking the mickey should get you a smacked wrist, while honest attempts to adhere to it shouldn’t.
“But I really like working from home and being free to manage my own time. I do as much work as ever, but also have time to do other things when I would normally be “looking busy” at my desk. It’s not quite a holiday, but it really feels like it. On that level I would rather stay locked down.”
It’s not necessary to have a lockdown to be able to work from home. It should be your choice, on the assumption that your employer agrees.
I occasionally worked from home when my OH was unwell, or I’d had a bad night’s sleep and didn’t want to do my usual nearly two hour journey into work in Central London, or because I had a project to work on and didn’t want constant interruptions.
As for increasing fines for doing something that three months ago was considered absolutely normal is not something i agree with. It smacks of authoritarianism, and a level of social control that’s completely unnecessary.
Normal, healthy human social behaviour is now a crime. What does that tell us about the depraved minds that invented such a policy? Of course only a brutal totalitarian regime would come up with such an obscene idea. It is to the eternal shame of Western governments that they ever adopted something so profoundly at odds with liberal democracy. If we get out the other side – and I’m by no means convinced we will – there have to be serious consequences for those responsible.
Working from home is different from the people who are at home not working on most of the pay they get for working. They say crises like this tend to encourage existing trends, and the move to teleworking is one that was already under way very slowly, but it has been given a huge boost by this crisis. Much as WW1 pushed issues like universal suffrage and women in the workplace forwards dramatically. Though note that this has only been a huge crisis because of the decisions made by our governments, and in turn by the irresponsible fear-mongering response driven by our media and other opinion forming elites, that created the atmosphere of panic. It’s pretty much self-inflicted. If Italy and then other European countries, and the UK and US governments, hadn’t followed the authoritarian Chinese lead, we would have suffered far less than we already have, and immeasurably less than the costs to come. The problem with saying that heavier punishments are fine if they are only used to deal with people who are genuinely behaving unacceptably is that we’ve already seen that our police cannot be trusted to do that at all. Why will they suddenly start to… Read more »
As deadly as Ebola.
Would it surprise you to learn that even Ebola isn’t as deadly as Ebola?
The CDC’s modeling predicted that 1.4 million people would die from Ebola in Liberia and Sierra Leone (around 2015 iirc).
The final death toll was less than 8,000.
No, it wouldn’t surprise me because unlike our government and all the panickers, I tend to actually look at the numbers properly before forming an opinion.
In this particular context, “deadly” refers to the ifr, not to infectiousness. The dangerousness of a disease is clearly a function of the combination of the two. Ebola’s ifr rages from 20-80% in studies I’ve seen. Imagine if this coronavirus did that to people. It would actually warrant the kind of response we’ve applied to this glorified flu.
Strictly speaking those are case fatality rates, not infection fatality, but in this case there’s not much difference because if you get ebola your disease is usually identified.
There hasn’t been much talk about seeing friends/family in the next phase of lockdown lifting, or even a point in the future when this might be possible. Aside from the ludicrously unworkable ‘bubble’ strategy, I would have expected more information on this, given that visiting friends, family, and partners would be a priority for most people.
Those Sun stats are truly depressing. I do hope it’s just a case of people polling that way in order to look virtuous, given that everyone I’ve spoken to in real life wants this hell to end. Of course there’s always the social media mob but what they fail to understand is that there’s nothing stopping them from voluntarily isolating themselves and then letting everyone else get on with life. It’s not as if they automatically get infected with Covid as soon as Boris makes any indication of phasing out the lockdown.
Polls always give the desired answer. Even so, did they really fix these results that much – it is certainly a sad reflection on the British if not.
I think the survey was manipulated at the last moment. I voted in it and every time I checked the skeptics were slightly ahead of the bedwetters
Why is nobody talking about Belarus? Their president had the best advice: no lockdown, drink vodka, sauna twice a day, go to work. Cases 2321/m, Death rate 4/m vs UK cases 3175/m,deaths 455/m. Their population is similar to Denmark around 9.5M. What did they do differently, or maybe the miracle cure is actually Vodka!!
Yes totally neglected. I highlight the country in my ConWom piece tomorrow.
Great look forward to reading it
Will, I always look forward to your articles (along with Hector’s and Toby’s stuff), but now it just raises feelings of anxiety and impotence. Is it just a matter now if sitting this pantomime out?
Only if you have a large bottle of Stolly … 🙂
Sounds a bit ‘far right’ – where do I sign-up? 😉
Everything not radical far left is far right. Apparently.
I’m waiting and watching on Belarus. My suspicion is that Lukashenko has been the best leader on this (never, ever thought I’d be in a position to write that!), because his approach has basically been the traditional one, with a robust “keep calm and carry on” early C20th British spin. The problem is that it’s hard to give any credibility to any information coming out of Belarus until a fair bit of time has passed and there’s a chance to separate truth from propaganda. And in this case there will be propaganda from both sides, but the anti-Belarussian propaganda will be far more slick and well funded than the government stuff. They’re up against both the ultra-slick US sphere media operations and the Russian one which has been catching up in recent years, and there will be plenty of people within Belarus willing to supply both the western and Russian propaganda operations with faked and exaggerated material. But in the end it will be hard to disguise the difference between the kind of mass slaughter the covebola fantasists have been predicting and the kind of thing the actual death rates would suggest will happen (although I suspect the Belarus healthcare… Read more »
The oneold women posting here are not the scared, hysterical ones!
The ‘bubble’ idea is some rubbish dreamed up by academic epidemiologists who don’t seem to understand normal human interactions…. Totally unworkable as you say.
My experience of people who go into such professions are those who don’t understand normal human interactions to start with, which is why they do what they do.
I’ve suggested to family and friends we ignore the silly advice and start meeting up again.
Great idea
You can visit 1 person per day outside your house. How does anyone know if it’s the first second third? It’s really simple to me, it’s the job if those who don’t have the fear of the virus to show the way for the brainwashed.
Step 1 – never ever wear a mask
I really do wonder about these polls. Am in Scotland, been on the Scottish Government covid strategy feedback and ideas site a few times in the last few days. Was expecting to see a lot of support for lockdown. Was really heartened to see lots of sceptical and critical voices, and I would say strong majority in favour at very least of easing it. Lots of upsetting posts as well from people really struggling with isolation and begging to be allowed to see someone. Glad to see that Scottish men have not changed much over lockdown…. loads of them banging on about wanting to get back on the golf course! And quite right too, such a waste of all the lovely weather.
I’m just not seeing where all these people who don’t want lockdown to end actually are in real life.
In Germany they seem to have got a new political party going: Widerstand2020 to oppose restrictions.
MSM seems to be reporting on it using language that questions its credibility.
It’s already their 4th biggest party.
Apparently the party often has quotes taken out of context in an effort to make them appear as conspiracy theorists or Nazis.
A-ha! I have family in germany.
Another contender for emigration!
Discrediting any dissenting voice is what they do
And then they come over all innocent and surprised when the people they demonise, delegitimise and discredit get rowdy towards them.
Coronavirus anger foments violence against journalists
Protesters from across Germany’s political spectrum are demonstrating against coronavirus restrictions. But their ire is also directed at established media outlets, making life increasingly dangerous for journalists.
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-anger-foments-violence-against-journalists/a-53383927
Yes… This is precisely it. Angry about being fed fear 24 7
“Total nonsense, obviously – the ascent is far more dangerous.”
No, Johnson’s description of climbing is correct.
Whether it’s a good analogy for dealing with a virus is another matter
It’s especially nonsense when dealing with a virus. The downslope of an epidemic is a bit like a bonfire that has burned out because it’s run out of fuel. It’s rather easy and not at all dangerous at this point to pour a bit of water on it at this point and take the credit for putting it out.
Well, only if it hasn’t been successfully suppressed (unless the virus is seasonal or there’s some other reason why it might be less dangerous later on).
That’s perhaps the greatest irony of the lockdown suppression policy (as pointed out both by the Swedes and by the UK government before they panicked) – it’s unsustainable for long and if it’s successful you can’t end it, because you are no safer from an epidemic than you were when you started it. You can only end it safely if it wasn’t necessary or wasn’t effective and it became a mitigation and herd immunity strategy by default.
I suspect we are in the latter situation, as you suggest, but regardless we have to end it because we can’t sustain the growing costs much longer.
It will be your actions that end it, I wouldn’t suggest mass rioting as the problem isn’t really the government, it’s the people brainwashed by fear of a virus.
We just show the way.. Boris’s words were actually very Machiavellian.
Herd immunity has already been achieved, now cure people of their fear
If they wanted to cure people of fear they could very easily do so by publishing an estimate of IFR based on up to date evidence, as CEBM does. Then they could stop fudging the daily death stats and give the actual deaths for the day showing the clear downward trend. They could stop pushing pseudoscience such as anything based on the IC model and the mythical second wave. They could tell people the virus has likely been with us since November and they’ve all been exposed anyway. They could, in short, tell the truth. The only possible reason for not doing that and for keeping a lockdown in place is that they want to. The lockdown, I suggest, never was a means to an end. It is the end, to which the deliberate hype and hysteria around Covid was the means. Boris and the people around him have shown themselves to be bad actors.
Yup
In theory yes, but however much of the epidemic you have had, the easier it gets, because you have some herd immunity. The only exception to this is if you contained the epidemic in a small part of the country. In that case when you opened up that region you might get a catastrophic second epidemic. I don’t think we can read much more into Johnson’s analysis than we could that of any intelligent 3-year old who looks at the graph and says “Ooh it looks like a mountain! Can we ski down it? Weeeee!” But looking at the geography is actually quite interesting. I’ve been looking at the deaths per local authority region per unit population using ONS data and found it’s very evenly spread throughout the UK, with higher Covid PFRs in places where you would expect R0 to be higher (London, Salford, metropolitan areas). This is what we would expect to see after the epidemic had reached equilibrium (i.e. herd immunity). I found this heatmap online: https://www.covidlive.co.uk/ which shows the general picture (although I would rather plot deaths than reported cases). But you can also see there it’s very evenly mixed. If you look at Germany (where… Read more »
That’s a good point, well made, about the spread, and interesting data thanks.
As should be clear from my earlier comment, I’ve never been convinced by the supposed efficacy of suppression, As I understand it, most credible epidemiologists always took the view that once a disease like this gets into the population in more than a minuscule way the opportunity for suppression is over. And the data doesn’t seem to support the mainstream narrative of a menacing disease successfully suppressed around the world by firm government action. So I’ve tended to assume that the decline of these epidemics has come about due to other factors, probably herd immunity at relatively low levels of prevalence (higher than the ones the government nonsense talks about, but much lower than the kinds of levels the fantasists were talking about at the beginning of the panic push).
Yes, agree. It has been suppressed in some places (Iceland, NZ) and perhaps partially suppressed in others (Germany, Austria) but everywhere we look that has had around a 0.05% or so PFR (UK, Spain, Italy, NYC, Sweden) pretty much the same exact thing has happened, in spite of greatly different lockdown regimes with different degrees of enforcement.
Seconded!
A. Mountaineer
There was the DUKE OF YORK study. It had 10 000 subjects
It’s not talking about the virus itself at all. This is all subtle meaning and subtext.
The virus is gone. Finished.
It’s how you de-program those who are still in fear
Why did he need to have a special Sunday slot to tell us this?! Basically no change other than garden centres can open and bang goes our tourism industry and your summer hols abroad…
He seems to have decided to give Wee Krankie a run for her money. I’m not sure now which is a less appetising sight!
Assume he did not want to do it before VE Day.
No… It was a big change. Read between the lines! It’s only really social distancing that remains but that will melt away soon enough once people wake up… Thank god as I keep on bashing into the stupid things at the local Tesco express.
They’ll get ripped down pretty damn quick once people just forget about the virus and carry on with their lives.
Life is a risk shocker and here’s a new one !
We will have to wait for the new regs. But it’s not remotely true to say only social distancing remains. We are not free to leave the house whenever we wish for whatever purpose we wish, we remain under Dr facto house arrest with a bigger stick. And democracy is still suspended and the economy is still in the bin.
Sturgeon’s comments today couldn’t be anymore Political Chess if she wrapped them up in wrapping paper that said Referendum 2021 on them.
Boris has allowed himself to be outmanoeuvred by the Press and other parties, and whatever tonight’s announcement once looked like, it now is utterly pointless.
We have a ‘back to work’ meeting scheduled at work tomorrow, we perceived, hopefully, that there was going to be some good news to plan towards. Instead, it looks very much like one where we highlight the first people to receive their P45s.
Great work, guys.
https://youtu.be/ABA0UODeuS4
This is brilliant. Which pair of trousers would you most like to be murdered by?
Brilliant indeed. Thanks for the laugh and the clear perspective.c
Very funny. Have passed it on!
Great stats about trouser deaths vs covid deaths, shame that the presenter had to discredit imself (at least to a majority of viewers I should suspect) by bringing Bill Gates in to it at the end. We mustn’t let any suggestions about behind-the-scenes matters which may be true or maybe be pure conspiracy theory detract from the thread of our argument that lockdowns are harmful and disproportionate to the disease risk, which the first several minuets of the video argues SO well.
A lot of professional dialogue influencers out and about today.
Dear people of Britain. Here are the results from the latest Dutch antibody tests showing the fatality rate of Covid19 for under 70’s. Boris has thrown our economy under the bus for this.
@RishiSunak @simondolan
https://t.co/33jW3Pd1nN https://t.co/V9QF1dhZiv
https://twitter.com/WillowWyse/status/1259476923480182785?s=19
That is shocking! FFS, what are we doing, one assumes there’s someone in Whitehall whose job it is to collate all this?
As they say ‘never assume’….☹️
Was it Boris ? Hindsight is great…, even though it was obvious to me months ago that the virus was not very dangerous. Or was it overwhelming pressure to follow every other country… UK was last to lockdown. And for very good reason
It was definitely “public” (ie media) pressure that pushed us into lockdown. It is also about 95% media pressure that is keeping us there.
Outlets like the Guardian have had coverage that is effectively one long petrified scream. They seem to genuinely believe that 1 covid death per day is 1 too many, and that the economy just doesn’t matter.
Quite why the PM doesn’t just tell them to sod off I don’t know, but this kind of hysterical coverage is really why we can’t leave lockdown.
I hope that the inevitable public enquiry takes a few moments to point out that the press were 100% wrong and should be ashamed of themselves. It’s not like reporters actually understand the science anyway, and their knee jerk to “everything the government does is wrong and evil” needs looking at.
The Guardian, like the BBC and The Times and so many others, has indeed acted disgracefully. So I was pleased to see they had actually published the following article, and the tone is suitably furious:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/may/06/millions-develop-tuberculosis-tb-covid-19-lockdown
My pious lefty friends are circulating a meme that reads: Stay at home Ignore the Tories Save Lives I’ve told them over and over about the CQC and discharging covid sick patients into carehomes to create free beds in hospitals, they called me a liar (Dominic Lawson’s piece in the Times). I say that carehome deaths have tripled and only half are due to covid – they say this is due to poor funding of the NHS (what?). I’ve tried to explain that the best thing they can do to save lives is stop being wimps, get out there, sort out herd immunity and protect the vulnerable before winter comes. Deafening silence. I’ve pointed out Ben Goldacre’s Oxford study – if you’ve not read it yet check out page 11 (quite why that isn’t front page news, no idea) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1.full.pdf and how if you are under 50 your risk is zero. Not a sausage. I explain about the CEBM and how they need to look at data on the day of death, not the day of registration, and how the peak is passed, zip, nothing, zilch, nada, niet. I’ve provided article after article of one expert after another (today’s Telegraph… Read more »
It takes time to re-evaluate your belief system. Keep at it. You might get through to one or two of them, but it depends on how honest with themselves and life they are. Dr.Karlyn Borysenko was a firm Democrat-supporting leftie, but she saw a hate mob descend on someone for a fairly innocuous comment online, and realised something was seriously wrong with the far left. She’d voted for Clinton in 2016, but went along to a Trump rally, despite being warned that she’d be in danger. In one of her recent videos she was wearing a #WalkAway cap, and has announced she’s voting for Trump. I expect her to wearing a MAGA hat any day now. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rlD7GuZjklo Tell your friends to Google it themselves about patients being discharged back to care homes: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/15/discharging-coronavirus-patients-care-homes-madness-government/ “Discharging coronavirus patients into care homes is ‘madness’, Government told Growing evidence that policy, which Health Secretary said would continue, is fuelling virus outbreaks and deaths” https://www.cqc.org.uk/guidance-providers/adult-social-care/information-adult-social-care-services-during-coronavirus-outbreak#managing-covid-19 “There’s new guidance about safe discharge from hospitals to care homes. (8/4/20) Read the new guidance: admission and care of residents during COVID-19 outbreak It also gives guidance on social distancing in care settings. It states that someone’s COVID-19 status… Read more »
Yes I read the guidelines, Dr Malcolm Kendrick flagged them weeks ago. It’s so sad. And don’t worry I’ve been on a bit of a political growing pains / reorientation for some time about the left, and have had some tangles with them on women’s rights (I won’t derail this page by getting into it here), but I’m honestly STUNNED. Just shocked at how they are all behaving.
I’d just give anything for a political grown up, I don’t care of what stripe right now, it’s the moral dishonesty I can’t bear. Nobody has a right to a risk free life, it’s rank entitlement to demand it, and it’s dishonest in the extreme to pretend you are doing it in the name of ‘saving lives’.
Thanks for your long comment, what strange days we are in!
These are the times of division, it seems. Now that Brexit is over, we have new labels. Lockdowners and Leavers! The good thing is that not all EU supporters are Lockdowners and vice versa.
That is one huge blessing indeed! I’m relieved us sceptics are a broad church, it’s gives us credibility for one thing, it can’t be a ‘right wing conspiracy’ if we’re a rag tag of all beliefs and none.
All the bloody mainstream media try to claim we’re the far right though, I’ve been a long term centrist libertarian and I’ve anti-lockdown friends who were Corbynites at the last election.
Interesting point, albeit USA focused not UK, about who the anti-lockdown movement are over there:
https://theconversation.com/what-are-the-reopen-protesters-really-saying-137558
Point 1,2 and 3 are some of the one which do translate, I think, to the UK viewpoints.
Interesting that the anti lockdown movement in the US includes people who question the ‘establishment’ viewpoint and are suspicious of the government’s motives. To be honest I was once a BJ fan but since this lockdown I’m starting to really question my judgement. What he says makes absolutely no sense and I’m disappointed.
This is why I think this whole pantomime is political. MSM is playing him and in a few weeks time they’ll start to beat him up with his own ‘figures’ to bring him down. Same in the US, it’s all about bringing Trump down,
Agree – once Trump is gone so will virus. Boris replacement- Sunak? Matt Hancock? (joke)
Probably Sunak. Boris was never in it for the long haul
Of course it is, always has been. In UK who put Boris in the no win scenario? Media.
Who has been peddling 24 7 fearothon? Media.
So actually who is responsible for the brainwashed masses ? Media
Who can de-program them? We can. There’s not as many of them as you think. Probably all reside on Facebook 24 7
I really despise Boris, have despised Boris since even before the prorogation scandal of autumn, but you’re quite right that the media are very much more to blame for this than he is. At the start Boris, for all the bad things about him, was planning a sensible herd immunity strategy. Lets not focus too much on how he buggered up by underfunding NHS testing capacity, it didn’t look good and made him more dangerously reliant on Ferguson’s foolish models, but herd immunity could have worked despite it. Now, If he’s impossibly utterly evil, and completely mad enough and anti-capitalist enough to want the lockdowns, then the media made it easier for him to begin a diabolical coup-d-etat by pressurising against herd immunity. Whereas, If Boris is merely the plausible amount of an arse that he appears to be, then it was the media’s crazed bellowing that forced him towards lockdown for political purposes when he would have rather kept the country running and not triggered the economic crisis which is sure to ensure he cannot win the next election. And he is in a no win scenario as he comes out of lockdown too, he can be confident he’ll… Read more »
“If Boris is merely the plausible amount of an arse that he appears to be”
classic
Trying my best (mostly alone) to do just that via OpenCorona on Facebook! I have invested in paying for an ad to help build the community but that’s obviously not sustainable. I am hoping once it has a critical mass it will grow on its own.
Thanks BecTJ, we were wondering the other day on here what Ben Goldcare would make of it!
The same goes for the SNP in Scotland.
I’m a leftie (lapsed) – very much like the person quoted in Toby’s intro (though I confess to giving up reading The Guardian – or any paper – over six years ago) I voted for Corbyn twice because I trusted his integrity and was sick of Blairites. I believe in freedom and have just resigned from the Labour Party. I like this site because people are talking sense and I cannot stand the authoritarian attitude of some of my associates (not pals) on the left. I’m writing this under my real name so I’m done for if there are any agent provocateurs hanging around ready to betray me to my (once) peers. I don’t care though, I think it’s important to stand up for what you believe in wearing your real identity. I have quoted Patrick Henry before so, at the risk of repeating myself ‘Give me liberty or give me death.’ My sentiments entirely, but I can’t man the barricades on my own, my joints creak.. Still carrying old injuries from anti Vietnam war demos.
I started lefty 20 years ago, but it was always the civil libertarian side that appealed. Now it’s just the liberty that I hold dear but I retain my distrust of crony capitalists.
It’s a journey and now we find ourselves apparently in a small and socially reviled minority.
But, like you I won’t hide behind a pseudonym. I would rather be harassed and imprisoned then live in a world that I could not speak for freedom or fear of state or corporate control.
Well said A Meshiea
I’m a passionate believer in free markets. The freer the market the freer the people and I also abhor crony capitalism. The use of political power to serve the interests of business is a slope that leads to fascism imo and is as far removed from the free market and individual liberty as it could possibly be. I think the political system we are presented with is a complete con. One party concerned with social control, the other with economic control. The problem with control is that it always increases. It’s the nature of the beast.
I have a friend who also posted a gif that had the new “guidelines” go from:
Stay alert
Control the virus
Save lives
To
Back to work
Herd immunity
Save capitalism
She works for a bank ironically (or maybe not).
I should add that she considers her version a negative and a criticism of what Bozo said.
What a shame about her views, the only thing I can disagree with about
Back to work
Herd immunity
Save capitalism
Is how it fails to explicitly mention saving civil liberties.
Ok look, maybe I am a bit ‘zen’ here but the message is actually coded meaning:
Stay Alert – IE. Don’t fall for any media brainwashing about it killing newborn babies or the like – nope never will
Control the virus – it’s now a fear virus. Man up!
Save lives – save the quivering masses from themselves and their obsession with a virus that has already been defeated.
The rest of the terror – ometer is simply a replacement for the obsession with counting cases, and a desire to stay ‘green’ so you have conquered fear.
This is what it is all about.
Propaganda in… Then take that propaganda out…
She won’t work for a bank for long…….
Get off Facebook. Home of the narcissistic left loons who have been brainwashed. Ironic for their sudden compassion for the old when it’s actually me me me.
Instead look at some of the backlash to the fear mongerers on twitter, that’s the real opinion
Very simple to bring these snowflakes back to the real world, just go out there and don’t have any fear for yourself. You know you don’t have anyway right? I never did as it was obvious that this thing had been around ages.
Just go about your daily lives. Never ever wear a mask. Very clever of Boris to say it wasn’t compulsory. Given that they are actually more harmful for non frontline staff anyway
It will soon be blindingly obvious that those allegedly most at risk from the virus are the ones with the least fear.
Funny, when ebola was loose in West Africa in 2015 ish I was telling everyone that we should be worried and should be doing more to help because terrible viruses like that aren’t just a developing world problem, they could come knocking on our door too if we don’t help stamp them out. And yet when covid-19 staretd to build up in China I wasn’t scared, somehow it was apparent that this virus wasn’t the one we needed to really fear. I was taking sensible precautions since it first begun spreading in he UK, avoiding door handles before doing so was “cool”, proposing sensible ways among friends and colleagues to reduce the spread, without ruining our social and working lives, if (I thought when) one of us caught it on the way to national herd immunity, I was damn p*ssed off when the panic buying occured, but I was not SCARED of the virus at any point.
In a letter to Gov. Doug Ducey of Arizona, the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) presents a frequently updated table of studies that report results of treating COVID-19 with the anti-malaria drugs chloroquine (CQ) and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ, Plaquenil®).
https://aapsonline.org/hcq-90-percent-chance/
Maybe the BBC should tell the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons that they’re wrong and spreading fake news, according to the very high standards that the BBC has set for the rest of the world. After all, we all know the BBC is never wrong about anything, ever, which is why they will never apologise about anything.
I am very disturbed by GOVERNMENT SPONSORED disinformation about treatments that could potentially reduce risk or save lives. This is now getting truly, creepily Orwellian.
I wonder if there is an official BMC /PHE set of treatments and that’s why?
I think that’s been part of the problem. NICE too. There are vested interests there too of course. The pressure on GPs to prescribe statins is a classic example.
Yup.
Once they have compulsory vaccination it’s not a huge step to compulsory statins. Then compulsory veganism.
Hydroxychloroquine is out of patent and costs pennies (literally) when bought up by the billion. Remdisiver costs hundreds per dose. Which one is going to get the backing of the media and politicians I wonder.
I just posted this on yesterday’s comments page just before this new (today’s) page came out. Apologies if I am repeating myself. I got told by my work (Manufacturing sector, But classed as non essential) on the 24th of March to go home, & at the time, it was said to be for 3 weeks. I Was then furloughed on 30th of March. At first I thought fair enough, I didn’t know then what I know now about this extremely exaggerated virus. My work keeps us all updated by email every couple of weeks & it has been grim. My work lost 80% of its income that first week of lockdown, due to the companies that it supplies shutting down because of this. The emails have been stating that it’s a very tough time for businesses including the company I work for. However, on Thursday, I received another email from my work & this one doesn’t read well, It mentioned some of its customers are returning to work but on a very very limited staff basis & then they said this, “It seems likely that we will not return to normal levels overall for a significant period” Now, I am… Read more »
Sorry to hear, we own a business and we’re on 10% sales, every business we speak to is planning to come back on 40%, unfortunately this means we can’t keep all (most) of our staff, it makes no business sense. Lots and lots and lots of businesses in the same boat, and the staff are totally blameless.
I think the support for this lockdown will disappear overnight as soon as this furlough scheme is wound down. There are so many people who are completely shielded from the harsh reality of what this lockdown is doing
Thank you both for your comments, I agree, once the furlough scheme ends, there will be a lot of people who are currently treating it like a holiday, in for a massive shock. I cannot wait to actually go back to work, but after that email update on Thursday, I am unsure if I will still have a job to go back to.
What’s even more depressing is, prior to this nonsense & lockdown, my company that I work for was actually doing very well. & then pretty much overnight, it’s been more or less wiped out.
I agree that this is not the fault of the employees or the company itself, the blame for all of this lies squarely at Boris & his stupid decision to go ahead with this lockdown.
If it does turn out that in the end, I don’t have a job to go back to, I am seriously going to look to leave the UK, as it’s now well & truly screwed, now & in the future. It actually makes me sad.
We are thinking along the same lines as you, leaving the UK. At times, it has been a real struggle to just walk down the street anymore without seething with rage at people throwing themselves into oncoming cars to avoid being within 6 feet.
The question is, where to go? Much of the world has reacted in the same way as the UK government. Also, it’s hard to see which countries will be wanting much immigration after this, or at least which countries will be easy to get into. Asia is mostly open for business of course and I suppose there’s always somewhere hot and relatively poor to go to. It would certainly be a better place to live than somewhere with terrible weather that is about to get much poorer.
“Also, it’s hard to see which countries will be wanting much immigration after this, or at least which countries will be easy to get into”. Erm….UK?
I want to get out too. But where to, that’s the problem. What country defends civil liberties against globalists wanting to import Communist public health policies. Not the UK, not the US, not most of Europe. Ideas welcome!
I read in the Telegraph last night that the govt is expected to extend the furlough scheme until September. Heaven help us!
Don’t know if this has been flagged up before:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/asiatimes.com/2020/05/global-virus-lockdown-was-madness/
Love the understated last paragraph.
Thank you Toby for keeping this site going. You must be ready for a day off.
Can’t bring myself to watch the nonsense from Mr Bumble this evening. He’s such a disappointment.
This cheered my up today, the Corona Virus verse from Dominic Frisby’s excellent comedy tune ‘Maybe’:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuYK1vkTpJk
The original full version is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9Nf7N91lc8
Happy Sunday fellow Lockdown Sceptics.
Not watching Ballless. Ball-less? Either.
I’m just about to have a long hot shower and try to forget I exist.
The Boris Johnson verse in the original version obviously needs re-writing!
The fundamental question is all of this is : does lockdown reduce Covid-19 deaths?
I would argue that lockdown doesn’t reduce Covid deaths, it just defers them.
The only circumstances in which deferral reduces the death toll are:
(a) if deferral enables access to health care that would otherwise have been available (NHS overwhelmed), and
(b) if deaths are deferred until a vaccine or life-saving treatment becomes available (cavalry rides to the rescue).
The NHS is not likely to be overwhelmed given the amount of excess capacity created, therefore (a) does not apply.
The cavalry won’t arrive any time soon, so (b) does not apply.
Therefore lockdown does not reduce Covid deaths. Therefore lockdown does not save lives.
Lockdown does, however, cause non-Covid deaths (as well as misery and hardship).
Therefore, lockdown kills.
Scientific method is based on the falsification of hypotheses. Please, can someone tell me what’s wrong with that argument, with that hypothesis.
If the argument is sound, then the only question anybody should be asking the Prime Minister is:
‘Prime minister, why are you persisting with a policy of lockdown which is killing people?’
Your argument is sound but there is one another theoretical strategy/pipe dream among Guardian readers which is to reduce the number of infections to a low enough level that you can do test, track and trace. This can work if you’re organised and do it early enough. It worked in Iceland (and some other places). All the evidence is that the epidemic in the UK is basically over but if you still believe in the science-free assertions of Ferguson then only about 5% have had it. So then you have to ask how many active infections are there likely to be at this point so that we can start tracing and quarantining them? Even if it’s down to 1% of the population after our (fortunately relatively half-arsed) lockdown that’s 600,000 needles you have to find in a haystack of 60 million. If you look at the ONS regional data on Covid deaths it’s clear than the virus has become thoroughly established all over the country. You would therefore need a drive-thru (or walk-thru) testing centre in every town and village. You would need not 100,000 tests but at least 30 million, and all the staff to do the tests and… Read more »
Yes Guy. I’ve never been able to fathom out how T, T and T works. If this were an STD then yes you could trace the physical contacts – but when the virus can spread indirectly by a person infecting surfaces as well as through direct contact with someone else?
Your other point that all the evidence is that the epidemic in the UK is basically over is my feeling as well. Looking at the graphs and numbers from other countries you do get the sense that the virus does its own thing, that something happens as the virus spreads to slow the rate of increase independent of what policy the Government decides to impose. The danger here though is that if there is no increase in the rate of infection they will just say – see, lockdown is working, can’t relax now and undo all the good work…
No…. It’s this mental obsession with cases that’s eating people’s minds now. Who cares how many cases there are? It’s needlessly obsessive dog chasing its own tail.
You might have it, you might not … But who cares ? If you have it, you night be a bit ill for a while then you’re fine. You probably got it, and got no symptoms, so then you’re fine as well.
‘ Infected’ is an insidious word. When you get a common cold you are infected right? No one gives a shit about getting a cold
Life’s a risk, live with it
John, after watching Johnson this evening I’ve come to the conclusion that it is utterly pointless asking any questions, fundamental or otherwise. There is nobody listening and the course has been set. I now only visit sites like this because it gives me some comfort in knowing I’m on the ‘right side’ of the argument.
Yes there’s The Narrative, and way over there is reality.
Yes, Mr T – profoundly depressing.
I too visit the site to maintain my sanity. I have this fantasy that on each and every occasion that they allow themselves to be questioned, the single question repeatedly asked is ‘Why are you persisting with a policy that is killing people?’ They might not listen, but the public might, eventually.
i don’t care what Boris says i’m not listening to this bad advice. We need to go out and see our friends, go to work and get back to normal. All these muppets sitting their with my tax money paying their wages can do one. Oh and if they fine me i won’t pay ever even if that means jail. At times like these it’s the common man that starts the revolution, it’s the normal punter that breaks the tyranny. New leaders and thinkers must appear for the people to get rid of these closeted public funded lunatics hell bent on destroying us.
Working in a supermarket has me exposed to thousands of people and this combined with vitamin d will keep my immune system strong all these people in their homes are gonna come down with everything when they step outside.
Spot on Biker,Boris can put his advice where the sun is never seen,he is such a benevolent leader isn’t he ?,weeks of this madness so far but we can go to a garden centre on Wednesday,great,thanks very much I feel so much better now,I’ve completely forgotten the crashing economy,the approaching tidal wave of mental illness,the out of control police forces and overbearing authoritarian busy-bodies,the endless media hysteria and the frightening feeling that my daughter has no decent future.I for one will not be wearing a mask or anything else when going shopping,we’ve managed for the past six weeks so I don’t see what the point is now,it’s just something else for the cowardly specimens that seem to make up most of the population of the UK to report other people for not doing.Sorry for the rant but I really am at my wits end with this madness.
Yeah.. simple. No mask no fear.
Boris did NOT say it was compulsory to wear one. That was very clever
One is reminded of Clarence Henry Wilcock, the common man/normal punter who told them where to put their “ID cards”.
His advice was actually pretty much that but could not be delivered in a way to freak out the fear mongerers. But you have to bring the people affected by the fear virus out of their coma bit by bit.
The actual virus itself is totally insignificant in the grand scheme of things
Excellent post, as always, with some great links too. Thanks for all you do.
This quote is from Hitchen’s latest. It sums up my feelings exactly:
The two specific competent actions which might have helped – protecting care homes from the outset, and properly equipping doctors and nurses – were bungled.
Here in Wales the lockdown rebellion is growing. Many examples yesterday. My partner (he of the rebellious lockdown breaking mother who has been out wandering the streets every day) owed a local guy some money for a muck fork (that’s how we roll in the countryside), so we all went for a drive (him, me and our three dogs) to find the farm where this man lives. My partner went into the farmhouse to give the cash to the man’s wife. She has a motor neurone type disease and is on the vulnerable list but welcomed him in, offered coffee and cake. She happens to be a retired consultant gynecologist so not unaware of any potential risks. Driving home down the lovely Welsh country lanes we came across a friend of ours who runs a local horse equipment/pet shop. She’s been open the whole time but quiet, however she reported that Saturday had been her busiest day since the lockdown started and people were behaving normally – no face masks, no gloves, trying on jackets and rummaging on shelves. She even had a shop lifter! Whatever Boris says shortly the people will decide. Those that want to cower in their… Read more »
I like Wales. People are sound.
A parody song which might be a helpful anthem for us, to the tune of “Wherever you will go” by a whole variety of artists over the last few decades(2001, 2011…). Feel free to record an audio version if you like. So lately, the government, claims it’s gonna keep us safe They’re quite wrong, when liberties, are all so rapidly erased When neighbours spy on all, like behind the Berlin wall And harassed by police drones Who’ll “make something up” you know It’s falsehood It’s no good We’d already flattened the plateau Well the spread’s high But the death rate’s low So is the lockdown worth it? No So maybe, you find out, that you lost your job today The economy, is all screwed, yet it must fund our nurses’ pay As the people’s wages fall, and food prices rise for all I’d better be someone who’s out there to Restart our country for you Your livelihood Hasn’t withstood This disasterous furlough Rent’s sky high No cash flow So is the lockdown worth it? No Best let surgeries start Give the other patients hope Desperate to see their young I see now, it’s clear how, life and fun must still… Read more »
Dear Toby, you are obviously putting an phenomenal amount of work into this site and we’re all enormously grateful. But what with one thing and another you mayn’t have spotted in yesterday’s post that NERVTAG appear to have conflated Niall Ferguson, the well known historian, with the priapic beardy twat whose ZX-81 Program got us in to all this bother to start with.
“with the priapic beardy twat whose ZX-81 Program got us in to all this bother to start with.”
That made me laugh! And that doesn’t happen often these days…..
I bet he bakes his own bread, he looks the sort.
I spotted this too, did amuse me and he’s probably more idea than Neil.
Oh dear. How can the PM say all this when there is so much data available to show the complete opposite. Who the hell is advising him?
Also talking about a vaccine. No mention of the basic principles of herd immunity.
Again, we need MEDICS and SCIENTISTS to question this “vaccine” narrative in droves.
• If it is to be effective, it must be properly tested. So anything from 18 months to 5 years of lockdown/distancing
• It is also possible that NO safe or effective vaccine will be found. So….lockdown/social distancing forever
• WORST CASE SCENARIO: Rushed, inadequately tested vaccine pushed through for $$$ or to achieve forced vaccination while the populace is still compliant. This could be an absolute disaster with deaths, autoimmune illness and neurological damage produced by such a vaccine destroying more lives than any pandemic.
The sensible, risk free, cost-free, time-honoured alternative, NATURAL HERD IMMUNITY, has almost been whitewashed out of the narrative, and this is beginning to look quite deliberate.
People are being trained to be helpless infantilised adults; needing Big Daddy Government to protect them from nasty germs. Trained to have no understanding of their own bodies or how to optimise their own health.
That timeline is terrifying, I don’t know how I supposed to survive without seeing my family or friends for another 2 months, I’ve already been in solitary confinement for 10 weeks (had the virus before the lockdown) and the suicidal and hopeless thoughts are getting stronger by the day. This site restores some of my faith in humanity but I fear we are urinating into the wind.
Don’t let the situation get to you, it just isn’t worth it. There are some motivational recordings on utube, google resilience meditations they can change your mindset
Please check in with us daily, we’ll do our best to support you.
Hang in there, Paul – you’re among friends here. And there will be more and more coming to their senses in time. Judging by all the people who’ve been out enjoying the sunshine these past few days, it’s already happening: a kind of peaceful yet increasingly visible resistance.
Paul, my mother is 96 and has been alone that long. Solitary confinement is psychological torture and recognised by some government agencies as such. I give her a pep talk every day about ‘resistance’ and she’s buying it. Despite leaning towards the establishment and a lifelong Tory she swore at Johnson this evening and she doesn’t swear. (Not a mild word either.) Resist Paul. Defiance.
Hi Paul, hang in there. It will end. As BecTJ has pointed out, it is becoming less enforceable. They can’t police inside people’s homes. Can you find someone to join you in a quiet rebellion/return to sanity?
Paul, if you are feeling half as rough as you say, your friends and/or family ARE allowed to visit you, as a vulnerable person. Ask them.
This is simply about everybody getting used to the virus as just another thing to live with. No big deal, you had it? Yeah, I must have done as partner was laid low for a couple of weeks. No hassle, no symptoms so why worry about it.
The timeline isn’t about eliminating this virus, it’s basically to cure people of their coronaphobia. As simple as that for me. Get on with your life and others will follow.
The stupid social distance crap will go too, because that for me is the worst part by far.
Paul, I feel that I am the end of my tether too.
My missus is keeping me on the straight and narrow. I’ve had various real health issues that has made me face up to my own mortality (and my wife’s) and this illegally, unethical and pointless imprisonment isn’t helping.
The very real fact isn’t self-harm but of harming someone else, and, to be honest, it’s a target rich environment at the moment…..
My wife is aware of my feelings and she is explicit that I need to focus on the long term.
But it’s hard.
More than happy to listen.
Middle class twitter?
Rest assured that, as always, he is “driven by the science.”
Our only hope of a proper review of the evidence is Simon Dolan’s legal action.
Yup, that spectacle tells me we are going to court, and they are going to stand by it. How quickly does a JR actually materialise, are they gambling it won’t appear for a few months?
Beth Rigby on sky said before the PM speech that there are 16k cases daily still, that isn’t right is it ? Sure I see 3k.
I find it very interesting that Boris’ announcement mentioned absolutely nothing about seeing friends/family/relatives, when this is a top priority for many people. Something that important could not have been accidentally missed. Therefore, my theory is that that the reason why he didn’t explicitly mention these things is because it’s ultimately unpoliceable. It’s not the same as just breaking up a gathering in a town centre, taping down a park bench, or closing a shop. The ‘bubble’ strategy which was touted a few days ago as a solution for visiting loved ones is also useless for reasons which have been widely discussed. Boris has lifted movement restrictions now (unlimited exercise, and being able to drive for exercise) and I honestly think that’s a tacit coded message from him that one is (slightly) freer to go where one pleases now. I can’t see people not using the loophole in the ‘drive for exercise’ rule to see loved ones. I also think that the new ‘Stay Alert’ slogan (which has been amusingly memed to high heaven already) is deliberately designed to be incredibly vague so that it undermines the lockdown and ends up rendering it totally unenforceable. The government isn’t going to… Read more »
Well said.
Is there any scientific evidence behind lifting one-a-day exercise restriction from Wednesday and not from tomorrow? What a pisstake, FFS, treating the general public like children again. If I’m treated like a child, then I usually start behaving like one and disobeying rules.
I can no longer stand to see or hear Johnson,it is one never ending piss-take,behave like good little children and you can have a little treat on Wednesday or in a few weeks time but not tomorrow or next week,it truly defies rational explanation,it does seem as if the lunatics are finally running the asylum.
I think we can safely say without needing a double-blind peer reviewed study that going out twice, or three or four times, for a walk or a bike ride etc makes absolutely no difference whatsoever to the transmission of viruses.
I see in the Guardian’s “Johnson address shows he has been swayed by hawks in his cabinet ” article worries which might as well be phrased as, “we’re all children who can’t be trusted. don’t give us any responsibility, no, no, no”. And to think that before this lockdown began I liked the Guardian. The fact is that for all their internal divides along every political line you can imagine the British people can be trusted to maintain simple hygiene measures that we should have gone to in the beginning without this damaging lockdown. Stop treating us like infants and we’ll prove we can do the right thing, and if by some bizarre chance it does not work then we’ll take the responsibility and accept that perhaps a few more could have been saved but at least we lived our lives to our ends rather than cowered in terror.
No, being trusted to make such decisions is only for grownup countries with grownup governments like Sweden and Japan, it appears.
And indeed, we must collectively accept that we get the politicians and the news and social media leadership we collectively deserve. This is not really a party political issue. and nor was the Guardian unusual amongst the mainstream media outlets in assuming that their task is to manage the opinions of the stupid people rather than to provide information, though they are clearly now not amongst the few showing signs of breaking ranks (Telegraph, Spectator. Mail and Express occasionally).
This is a sickness in our society that goes back decades at least, I think, and I don’t think there was a single mainstream media outlet that did not wholeheartedly subscribe to the “responsible reporting and informing” fear-mongering trope, back when it mattered in early to mid March.
Apparently it is to do with enacting the legislation in Parliament.
Public can now “sit in the sun in your local park, drive to other destinations, even play sports, but only with members of the same household” were his exact words. To me, that means we can drive where we want from Wednesday. Am I wrong?
Dunno Fred, have been driving wherever we wanted to whenever we wanted to.
Except there are no pubs – Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh !
Drinking and driving , eh!
With a designated driver, of course. 🙂
It’s clear that Boris isn’t going to move first. There is no bold exit from this. We will be lagging behind the rest of Europe, and our entitled population will be spending the next decade blaming anything but themselves for the fallout. I do think we’ll be seeing lots of ‘socially distanced’ picnics next week. I just made an analogy but I’m going to make another one. I love music. I hate the music of Ed Sheeran. Do you know how I ‘musically distance’ myself from Ed Sheeran? By not listening to his God-awful music, or buying tickets to see his shows. Why can’t the same logic be applied here? For those of the population who believe Covid is the plague and they are at risk; great, self isolate and make sure all your family do too. That way you are safe from its grasp and free to live life as you have chosen. However, if I want to ensure I have a roof over my head and see some friends before I go completely stir-crazy living alone, I, and those who choose the same, are equally allowed to do that. I know the answer to this by the way,… Read more »
I agree,I don’t like football so I don’t go to football matches but I don’t think that means anyone else must be stopped from going,if people are scared to death of the virus that’s their choice,if they want to hide away indoors forever that’s fine,it’s their choice but for goodness sake let the rest of us choose our own path through life and let us assess risks for ourselves and get back to at least some normality before we are all dragged down into despair.
I am hoping like you Poppy that the public won’t put up with this much longer but around where I leave it doesn’t seem likely,they appear content to have their thinking done for them by the government.Also,what’s next ? covid 20,covid 21 etc,etc… ?
But the public are putting up with it. One problem is, many people must know somebody who has had a severe case of covid19. A friend of mine in London for example has been totally spooked by what happened to a friend of hers, 49 years old, a bit overweight, who has been on a ventilator since the middle of March. My neighbour’s cousin, aged 69, was also put on a ventilator and now he is in rehab, learning again to talk and walk! My friend’s reaction is: look how dangerous this virus is; we must stay at home. My neighbour’s reaction is the same. I would say: should these people have been put on ventilators? They probably also received cortisone, which is anti-inflammatory and shouldn’t be used for a viral infection. Initial misguided treatments, as well as propaganda, is what is scaring people.
A colleague of mine (a doctor) got it very badly, the virus moved from her lungs into her kidneys and did damage there. It seems to ravage the body when it actually gets in. Luckily she is better now but still weak.
It’s the emotive bit of it that affects everyone in some way – they might know someone who may have had it and passed away. Could have been something else as well? But you have to be strong and see the greater good.
Boris initial approach was to say that ‘people will lose loved ones’ as part of shielding and distancing strategy until he was forced into the lockdown one as every damn country did the same. UK has not been as harsh though, as Spain or France.
If people end up criticising him comparing some premier League table of covid deaths then you know the media is out to get him. it’s as if the collateral damage of lockdown doesn’t matter at all
ALL of Boris’s message was carefully coded!! Very sly, not enforceable to a great degree other than stupid 2m thing so watch out for that. That will go pretty quickly too.
It’s about bringing the fearful out of their paranoid coma.
I sincerely hope that is true, an anti-lockdown friend of mine in meatspace phoned up to announce the good news and how she’d heard all the pro-sceptic dog-whistle notes in his speech. I’m just pessimistic that we are imagining subtle messages placed for us but that in reality everything has been placed there to appease the zealots’ side. Can’t tell what to think about Boris any-more, could be an Ig Nobel prize for rheology measurements on that man and how he’ll happily shape himself to match whatever container he wants to stand in today.
Stay Home is Lionel Messi. The best footballer in the world and the best way to stop people dying of Covid. Imagine though, having a team of Lionel Messi’s and realising that you are losing every game. Why? Because Lionel Messi isn’t very good as a midfield anchor man, he’s an even worse defender, and let’s not even talk about his goalkeeping skills.
That’s what we are doing right now. We are ignoring the thousands of other deaths that occur every day, the number of elderly people whose only reason to exist is social interaction and dare I say it, the economy. Life isn’t one attribute, it’s billions co-existing at the same time.
Yep, stop the lockdown is obviously Liverpool FC ! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
So nothing changes. We’re told, live on TV, that the economy doesn’t matter and only health does. We’ll, what about health which is driven by the economy? All of our health is driven by economy, every last persons. I cannot believe what I just heard. It seems like he’s just given up.
And I was desparate to go to the garden center. I’ll have to go to one in Wales then.
I think Garden Centres are opening?
But if they’re implementing this ludicrous distancing like the supermarkets you’ll end up with the queues outside etc. Will completely rob the joy of it all.
Yes, people seem to think that businesses that were viable in the old days like restaurants will simply carry on with slight adaptations in the New Normal. So we have stories like this: “One restaurant in Leganes has already fitted the [plexiglass] boxes… Customers would wait to be seated at the entrance to a restaurant or bar, where they would then be met by a waiter wearing a face mask and rubber gloves. They would then be guided to their table, passing by the other diners in their own plastic boxes. This would allow each guests to enjoy their meal in a restaurant atmosphere without worrying about whether they would contract coronavirus from either the person sat in front of them or those walking past. https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/11489258/spain-restaurant-plastic-box/ *No one* is going to pay money to sit in a plexiglass box with waiting staff wearing gloves and masks. Few are going to want to sit in a pub with wide gaps between the tables and hardly anyone in it, where they have to queue at 2 metre intervals at the bar. If the idea is that we’re all going to clamour for Bill Gates’ vaccine just so we can go to the… Read more »
The description of the restaurant in the sun article is like something out of a comedy sketch. How much would it cost to install plastic boxes and would restaurants have the space to do this.
Be like having a meal in a nuclear power station rather than a restaurant!
Not in England
Nothing about opening garden centres in England. Except the few that have stayed open because they have a farm shop attached.
I took ‘if you can’t work at home, go to work ‘to be a quite broad statement (clutching at straws here).
I also got the same impression – he has given up. A lacklustre, ‘rather be somewhere else’, sort of performance overall, Obvious he is still suffering the after-effects of the virus but perhaps he may well now be thinking ‘this is not the job I signed up for – there are too many hard decisions to make, and that is not my style’.
Govt are in a hole. Kicking the coronavirus can down the road at the expense of the economy will go down badly with many backbenchers worried about UK finances as well as a good number of hawkish cabinet minsters – all of whom seem to have been ignored by Boris and his pal Dom.
What will the main Tory party donors be thinking tonight?
If ConHome is anything to go by, the majority will think what a brilliant speech. Very depressing.
They would say that, I reckon.
Economy and health is linked. No economy, no health and lots of misery.
Here is just one of the many comments on yahoo regarding Boris’s message
“ so everyone will have their take on interpreting what the Prime Minister has said. ‘go back to work If you can’t work from home. So what safety measures have the employers put in for keeping social distancing and testing all their employees for coronavirus just in case one person brings that infection in to the workplace? and within 24 hours! Nah I’m staying at home regardless it’s better to be safe than sorry or part of the next fatality list! For those who have been itching for this relaxation of stay at home guidelines -best of luck you are going to need it!”
I despair, I really do.
The public have been trained to think in binary extremes by the media. Stay in and live, or go out and die. People really believe it.
Sadly, you’re right. So many people seem incapable of using the brains they were born with. It’s not even as though all the relevant data re. risk is hidden from them: they could access it easily. But they choose not to. For them, fear has become both an addiction and a comfort blanket (with their spurious and hypocritical “concern” for the elderly and vulnerable being a convenient disguise).
All of them so happy to condemn their neighbours who needed two walks for their own sanity because “you’re murdering old people, you covidiot thug”. And yet none of the zealots, I would imagine, have ever bothered to pay their elderly relatives a visit to give them some company, and this has been the case long before those virtue signalling social media types had a pandemic to use for a “no grandma I’d rather you rotted away bored and alone because what if I came by and gave you a virus which even at your age it’s more likely you’ll recover from than die from” excuse. The more you look at it the more it seems the zealots would like to use this all as an excuse to let their elderly relatives be other people’s problems.
Unsurprising – probably someone on 80% or 100% pay with mortgage holiday, frozen loan repayments, hates their job etc – why would they want to go back to work when weather is good? Economy is the last of their concerns – Govt didn’t think about this happening, did they?
I’ve been hanging around this page for a few days and thought I’d join in. I’m increasingly concerned looking at the utter compliance of the British public through all this. I was listening to Robert Kennedy JR on the London Real interview he did, and am frankly very scared they are going to make this Gates vaccine mandatory. It’s worth a listen to see how money trumps life for these companies. Especially the problems regarding a coronavirus vaccine in particular.
I don’t think it will be mandatory. It’s just that without it you will not be allowed to leave the country, use public transport, enter government buildings or many private businesses. It’s a completely free choice.
Even when I get the vaccine, no way am I tolerating being asked by every busybody I encounter to prove that I’m one of the vaccinated.
Finding a vaccine will be very difficult especially as the virus continue to mutate. We need to be very scared of finding a vaccine where approval has been rubber stamped with no recourse to sue them for damages afterwards.
PM “we will be driven by the science and data”
Yeah well let’s see this science and data then.
We’ve seen it, it doesn’t say what he says it does!
It certainly doesn’t. It’s nearly 2 hours since the PM’s broadcast and I am still fuming.
Me too, I can’t focus on anything else.
This comment left under the telegraph article made me laugh:
“That has to have been the worst presentation I have ever seen, obviously whilst johnson had corrona he asked for a vesectomy, but the surgeons knife slipped.”
Following ‘science and data’ is just a smoke screen. Can’t understand why Johnson did not throw Ferguson under the bus (easy to do now) and lifted the lockdown.
Re: The Baildon Choir link. I had a respiratory infection with flu like symptoms from the second week of January 2020. It was memorable because it left me coughing beyond January 27th. The 27th is a key date because the illness resulted in the cancellation of a hospital appointment. The symptoms align exactly with what would now be described as Covid 19. I know of one other person who had the same infection.
I know several people who were ill in January. All had minor respiratory symptoms and general fatigue, ie classic virus symptoms. Except one healthy young woman who had a very high temperature that was diagnosed and treated as pneumonia.
Did you see the Mail and Times yesterday about team Kings saying the data is rubbish as there are two groups of symptoms, and this means they’ve underestimated infections by two thirds? Those symptoms are sore throat, upset tum, aches, tiredness, loss of smell. If so, my entire household (including my 85 year old dad) had that just after NYE. Nobody died. A colleague had a hacking cough for the whole of Jan, he couldn’t shake it, was in bed for a few days.
If they’ve underestimated infections by two thirds, that must mean that
• the infection fatality rate is even lower than previously thought
• we may be close to natural herd immunity
Mid-February saw me coughing dryly and being short of breath to the point my business partners told me to ease off on my workload and get some rest. I felt shite for a week or so, quit the gym and tried to sleep more. Not long after that my 20-year-old son was floored by a virus with a fever for 5 days. Both of my business partners, after returning from New York in early March, struggled with a virus-like illness.
Ask virtually anyone and they’ll be able to recall someone in their family having a respiratory illness earlier this year.