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Keeping the handbrake on is a polite way of describing Boris’s raft of announcements yesterday about how and when the lockdown is going to be eased. On Twitter, I described it as placing the country on “double secret probation”, so elaborate are the rules about when we’re allowed out of our domestic prisons. Others have been more forthright. One reader described the Prime Minister’s speech as a “nothingburger squared”, while Kathy Gyngell at Conservative Woman has a new name for our glorious leader: Bottler Boris.

The weird thing is, lots of people think he went too far. That was particularly true of left-wing politicians. Jeremy Corbyn, for instance, tweeted: “There should be no return to work until it is safe to do so. If work cannot be done safely, it should not proceed. People must come before private profit.” The idea, obviously, is to get it on record that they think Boris is making a dreadful mistake so if the death toll starts to rise they can pin that on him. Sturgeon is playing the same game. Happily, that didn’t stop people getting on the tube to return to work this morning. London Mayor Sadiq Khan has responded by saying wearing masks on public transport should be compulsory.

One thing that stood out in Boris’s speech was how often he mentioned “the R” – the rate of infection. Clearly, how free we’re allowed to be is inextricably bound up with what the R number is, although the details were hard to follow. That led Ben Pile, a Spiked contributor, to post this amusing summary of the speech on Twitter: “If I understand the Prime Minister, the level of alert will be updated by scientists checking their Rs. If their Rs is low, then we can be free. But if their Rs is high, then we must be locked up again. Scientists will be speaking to the Prime Minister through their Rs.” He then added: “The PM will be checking the scientists’ Rs every day. Scientists will also be checking each others Rs – a method pioneered by Prof Neil Ferguson and his lover.”

If there’s one straw to clutch at, it’s that Boris has abandoned the crackpot notion that any reimposition of restrictions after some modest easing would be “an economic disaster”. That’s what he said when he addressed the nation on April 27th, announcing we couldn’t possibly relax any of the extreme social distancing measures if there was the slightest risk it would lead to an uptick in infections. I despaired at the time because it seemed like a “test” that could never be met. But he’s done a reverse ferret on that, thank God. Now the line is that if infections start to rise, restrictions will be tightened up again until they start to fall. Indeed, he unveiled a ‘Covid Alert’ metre that will dictate when restrictions are turned on and off. As several readers have pointed out, it bears an uncanny resemblance to the ‘Peri-ometer’ at Nando’s, the high-street peri-peri chicken chain:

Another reason we should welcome switching measures on and off in response to the rise and fall of the R number – first suggested in the Imperial College March 16th paper – is that it seems unlikely infections will start to climb again as a result of any easing. In Germany, for instance, it’s clear that new infections have been trending downwards since the lockdown was dialled back a couple of weeks ago. And, of course, infections have also been declining in those countries that never imposed lockdowns in the first place, such as Sweden.

And Belarus. We mustn’t forget Belarus. A reader reminded me yesterday that no lockdown has been imposed in the East European republic and it has experienced one of the mildest Covid outbreaks anywhere in the world. Only 135 deaths so far, which works out at 14 per million. Who would have suspected that Alexander Lukashenko, the autocratic President of Belarus, would have managed this crisis better than our own democratically-elected leaders? As Mark put it in the comments beneath yesterday’s daily update: “What a state we have come to when a thuggish ageing Belarussian autocrat makes our entire political, media and social elite look like a bunch of scared, hysterical old women (with due apologies to all the sterling ladies of a certain age posting here).”

So why are infections unlikely to start trending upwards post-lockdown and why have they been falling in those countries – and US states – that never made the disastrous mistake in the first place? One theory is that the herd immunity threshold is far lower than originally anticipated – more like 7-24% than 50-60%. Nicholas Lewis, a climate change researcher, has written a piece that parses the evidence and sets out the argument. He shows that variation in COVID-19 susceptibility and infectivity between individuals, arising mainly from differences in their social connectivity, lowers the herd immunity threshold to a much more manageable level. His analysis draws on a recent preprint by Gomes et al entitled ‘Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold‘. Lewis’s paper is well worth a read.

By the way, what happened to the much-heralded Porton Down antibody testing survey? That involved randomly testing tens of thousands of people with a view to building up a picture of just how many Britons had been infected. It was announced over a month ago and I haven’t heard a peep about it since. Can any reader throw any light on this?

One more reason why the R number is unlikely to go up post-lockdown is that it may have sunk to below 1 before the lockdown was imposed and remained at that level throughout. That’s what happened in Germany. This chart from the Robert Koch Institute shows that by March 23rd, when the German Government imposed its most severe lockdown measures, the reproduction figure was already below 1, meaning the number of new infections was declining. In addition, it shows that in the following weeks, after the lockdown was in place, the R figure didn’t decline any further. So the lockdown didn’t result in any additional reduction of new cases.

“Sue Denim” has been in touch to point out that several other people with similar levels of coding expertise have posted analyses of Neil Ferguson’s code that are as scathing as his. Take this one, for instance, by Chris von Csefalvay. He is an epidemiologist specialising in the virology of bat-borne illnesses, including bat-related coronaviruses. “It is very difficult to look at the Ferguson code with any understanding of software engineering and conclude that this is good, or even tolerable,” he writes. He notes that Ferguson apologised for the poor quality of the code on Twitter, explaining that he wrote it more than 13 years ago to model flu pandemics. Csefalvay responds as follows: “That, sir, is not a feature. It’s not even a bug. It’s somewhere between negligence and unintentional but grave scientific misconduct.”

Then there’s this review by Craig Pirrong, Professor of Finance and Energy Markets Director of the Global Energy Management Institute at the Bauer College of Business, University of Houston. “Models only become science when tested against data/experiment,” he writes. “By that standard, the Imperial College model failed spectacularly.”

Meanwhile, the quality of the responses to these critiques by Ferguson’s defenders is pitiful. Like this one by Phil Bull, a Lecturer in Cosmology at Queen Mary University headlined ‘Why you can ignore reviews of scientific code by commercial software developers‘. Includes a caveat that tells you everything you need to know: “I will caveat this section with the fact that I am an astrophysicist and not an epidemiologist, so can’t critique the model assumptions or even really the extent to which it has been implemented well in the Imperial code.”

Problems continue to mount for the NHSx contact-tracing app. On May 7th, the parliamentary Joint Committee on Human Rights chaired by Harriet Harman published its report on the first version of the app and it doesn’t look like anyone on that Committee is going to be installing it on their phones anytime soon. The same person who wrote a detailed analysis of the app’s shortcomings for Lockdown Sceptics has summarised the Committee’s findings:

  • The Committee does not believe the app, in its nascent form, is even legal: “Unless the efficacy and benefits of the app are clear, the level of data being collected will be not be justifiable and it will therefore fall foul of data protection law and human rights protections.”
  • From the summary: “there are significant concerns about a tracking app being rolled out at speed with the potential longer-term effects on personal freedoms and concerns around surveillance encroaching on people’s everyday lives…” “The implications of such an app are so widespread, significant, and, as yet, subject to limited public examination, that they should be subject to the in-depth scrutiny of Parliament at the earliest opportunity. The Committee is concerned that this has not happened to date.” “The implementation and oversight of this app must, in our view, be urgently placed on a legislative footing…”
  • The Committee is calling for primary legislation to govern the app and the use of its data, plus an independent body to oversee it. Matt Hancock has apparently appointed an independent Ethics Advisory Board but the Committee sees this as insufficient.

Meanwhile, in Germany an anti-lockdown political party has been formed called Widerstand2020 Deutschland. Founded on April 21st, it has already attracted more than 100,000 members (although that number is contested). I can’t find anything about the party in any English-language publications, but it has a German website and a Facebook page and its two leaders are Ralf Ludwig, a Leipzig-based lawyer, and Dr Bodo Schiffmann, an ear, nose and throat specialist. Together, they’re known as Ralf and Bodo. (There was a third leader, Victoria Hamm, but she seems to have dropped out.) There is some discussion in Germany about whether Widerstand2020 Deutschland is, technically, a political party because single-issue parties are legally prohibited from participating in elections by Germany’s Basic Law. The fact that it accepts anonymous donations also rules it out. Widerstand2020 Deutschland has a page on Wikipedia, but lockdown zealots are straining every sinew to get it removed. (The party’s website has also been under attack since May 3rd.) The entry notes that a “right wing extremism researcher” called Matthias Quent believes the party – and the German lockdown sceptics movement in general – is a “collective of dissatisfied, frustrated and esoteric types, conspiracy theorists, people who are against vaccinations, anti-Semites and right-wing radicals”. A German-speaking reader of this website, to whom I’m indebted for doing some research on this for me, notes that nearly all the reporting about Widerstand2020 Deutschland in the German media has been dismissive. “The tendency to lump the entire membership of the organisation together as dangerous extremists dominates all the news reports I found,” he says. Dr Schiffmann also has a YouTube channel in which he makes arguments that will be familiar to readers of this site, such as questioning the level of danger presented by the virus and pointing out how disproportionate the response has been. One interesting fact uncovered by my researcher: the German term for lockdown is “der lockdown”. Incidentally, widerstand is the German word for resistance. If Widerstand2020 Deutschland does figure out how to get around Germany’s election rules I’ve no doubt it will do well. Das Bild, Europe’s biggest-selling newspaper, announced yesterday that the lockdown in Germany had been a “huge mistake”. Breitbart has more.

The UK still seems a long way from the emergence of Widerstand2020 Großbritannien, but an embryonic anti-lockdown movement is emerging. For instance, a group of sceptics in Manchester were out yesterday plastering the town with stickers. The group, which calls itself “For Freedom’s Sake” and can be found on Twitter here, is hoping to encourage others by engaging in small acts of resistance, a bit like Otto and Elise Hampel, the Berlin couple who wrote postcards denouncing Hitler and left them in public places around the city. Here’s one of the stickers:

And now for our own small act of resistance. Today, Lockdown Sceptics is launching a searchable directory of open businesses across the UK. The idea is to celebrate those retail and hospitality businesses that have reopened, as well as to help people find out what has opened in their area. But we need your help to build it, so we’ve created a form you can fill out to tell us about those businesses that have reopened near you. Should all be fairly self-explanatory – and the owners of small businesses are welcome to enter their own details. Please visit the page and let us know about those courageous entrepreneurs who are doing their bit to get the country moving again.

And check this out. An enterprising family has created a drive-thru McDonald’s in their back garden. But don’t add underground businesses like that to our directory. We don’t want the police to use it as a tool to track down Covid dissidents.

A reader in Japan has sent me this imaginative diagram that a designer friend of his has created to help people understand the social distancing rules. Could this be an example of what will come to be known as Covid art? Obviously, I don’t include this monstrous piece of propaganda by Banksy in that category.

Artist: Eisuke Tachikawa, known as NOSIGNER, creator of the PANDAID portal

Good letter in the Yorkshire Post yesterday from Peter Snowdon contrasting his fathers’ generation, which won the Second World War, with the current lot of bed-wetters:

They would be appalled by the way in which we have responded to this pandemic. They would think that we are unable to balance and manage risk. The effects of the breakdown of the economy will put those vital parts of society – the health service, education and social care – back by many years. We will live with the economic effects of these few weeks for years to come. Unemployment will soar and many more people will die worldwide than ever succumb to the virus as a result of the economic strictures that will be in place.

Let’s honour the memory of those who died, or gave up their younger years, by accepting that, in times of natural disaster, we cannot solve everything. Our parents did so and ‘just got on with it’. We cannot reduce the numbers dying to nothing and we shouldn’t rob the future of millions of people in a futile effort to do so.

I received a heart-rending email from an isolated sceptic in Bexhill-on-Sea, a small town on England’s south coast. “Never has there been a bunch of more hysterical, scared-shitless snowflakes, not only wanting the lockdown to carry on for months, but to tighten it down to unprecedented levels,” he writes. “There is a very popular community-based facebook group here and there are literally hundreds of posts screaming about the slight ease-up in restrictions that Bojo spoke about last night.” He continues:

Toby, I wanted to post something on the group with the alternate point of view, but my wife and daughter wouldn’t let me! I realised myself that I would generate so much abuse and hate and wouldn’t be surprised if I was hounded out of the group. I have friends in the same group and I actually think I would lose some of them if I put in my penny-worth. It has actually become like the Brexit/Remainer thing now, dividing communities and even families. There is a lot of shaming of, not only those breaking the lockdown, but those who dare to walk on the seafront who are still socially distancing.

I’m sure there are a lot of readers of this site who feel his pain.

I was at Comedy Unleashed, the samizdat comedy night in Bethnal Green, on March 10th when Dominic Frisby unveiled a new verse to his ‘Maybe’ song, this one about coronavirus. Talk about prophetic! You can see Dominic singing that verse here. If you fancy anther dose of Comedy Unleashed-style humour, there’s this brilliant YouTube piss-take of Nicola Sturgeon reacting to Boris’s announcement by Jane Godley. Warning: Contains profanity. And this YouTube video by Paul Weston is laugh-out-loud funny. Slow start, but wait till you get to the bit when he points out that people aged 19 and under are about as likely to die from COVID-19 as they are from putting on their trousers. Apparently, eight people died while trying to do that last year.

Conor Friedersdorf, a journalist at the Atlantic I have a lot of time for, wrote a good piece yesterday entitled ‘Take the Shutdown Skeptics Seriously‘. After summarising the sceptics’ case, he writes: “These facts may not be evident from the least thoughtful proponents of reopening, many of whom advance arguments that are uninformed, dismissive of experts, or callous. But the warnings of thoughtful shutdown skeptics warrant careful study, not stigma rooted in the false pretense that they don’t have any plausible concerns or value human life.”

And on to the round-up of all the stories I’ve noticed, or which have been been brought to my attention, in the last 24 hours:

Some more suggestions for theme songs from readers: ‘Wake Up‘ by Rage Against the Machine, ‘Isolation‘ by Joy Division, ‘Sitting Round at Home‘ by the Buzzcocks and, of course, ‘Infected‘ by the The. Can’t believe we haven’t had that one before.

Thanks as always to those who made a donation in the last 24 hours to pay for the upkeep of the site. If you feel like donating, you can do so by clicking here. (Every little helps!) And if you want to flag up any stories or links I should include in tomorrow’s update, you can email me here.

And finally, Guy de la Bédoyère, a long-standing contributor to this site, has written a great essay for Lockdown Sceptics about Britain’s slide into totalitarianism. Guy is a historian who mainly writes books about the Roman world, but he taught a course on Totalitarian Ideology in Theory and Practice for a number of years. Please do read the whole thing, but here’s an extract:

One of the most remarkable aspects of the creation of Britain’s Covid Reich was that even in the middle of the Government’s witless, confused and ambivalent approach to the crisis it was able to rustle up overnight many of the key ingredients of totalitarianism. The ideology and the slogans, and the continual repetition of the message with the supine assistance of broadcast media, all fell into place with frightening speed. The speed with which the Great British Public acquiesced was even more alarming.

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AnotherSceptic
AnotherSceptic
24 days ago
Beacritical
Beacritical
24 days ago
Reply to  AnotherSceptic

“It is clear that the only feasible long-term solution lies with a vaccine or drug-based treatment…”

Whatever happened to promoting fresh air, sunshine, healthy eating, regular sleep, exercise etc… Even the Romans knew this…

KH1485
KH1485
24 days ago
Reply to  Beacritical

BigPharma, that’s what.

Beacritical
Beacritical
24 days ago
Reply to  KH1485

I know 🙁

common sense is dead
common sense is dead
24 days ago
Reply to  KH1485

Yes. I’m afraid it’s more than just Big Pharma though. Take for instance, Celebrity Science. Much of the “public” is unaware that this phenomenon has become pervasive in the academic community (to the detriment of scientists of integrity, which is another reason to shed light on its existence). Common sense tells you that scientists, being fallible humans like the rest of us) have the same desire to achieve fame, fortune, and esteem as the rest of us, and some will seek these things out to the detriment of their profession as a whole.

I’m sure many of you have seen the graph by Dr. Mark Lipstitch (Harvard) that tries to make the case for intermittent lockdowns well into 2022. What the media, who is glorifying Dr. Lipstitch, won’t tell you is that he was one of many at Harvard receiving funding from a gentleman named Jeffrey Epstein, who among other horrors also had a plan to “sow” the world with his genetic “seed”. Much of the evidence of their relationship has been carefully scrubbed from the internet, so unfortunately I can only give you evidence of the connections at this time. I currently have a friend doing some deep digging.

Excerpts from a Times of Israel article that lays out Epstein’s connections to both MIT’s Media Lab and Harvard Medical School:

“The former director of MIT’s famed Media Lab, Joi Ito, resigned last year amid uproar over his ties to Epstein. He issued a public apology and vowed to raise money for victims of trafficking.”
“Although his gifts were blocked after 2008, the report found that Harvard accepted $736,000 between his arrest and conviction. Most went to Harvard’s medical school, while $150,000 went to its Faculty of Arts and Sciences.”

As we know, Lipstitch is a researcher at Harvard TH Chan (the school of public health). There is little to distinguish a researcher at Chan from a researcher at the School of Medicine. It is rare for a researcher at one to NOT collaborate with a researcher from the other. I know, I worked at Chan. He is also associated with MIT’s Media Lab (shocking, huh? haha).

Meet the Moralist Policing Gene Drives, a Technology That …www.technologyreview.com › 2016/06/07 › meet-the-…
Jun 7, 2016 – Kevin Esvelt, professor at MIT’s Media Lab. “He has led the movement to shine the spotlight,” says Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard …

In fact, Lipstitch goes out of his way to decry this Celebrity Science on his Twitter feed. In reaction to a Sept 2019 article in the Atlantic on Epstein and ‘Sugar Daddy Science’, Lipstitch writes: “Pretty compelling article on the root causes of science dysfunction”.

Me thinks he doth protest too much.

Our current policies are being driven, in part, by practitioners of ‘Sugar Daddy Science’, and ‘Celebrity Science’, who have gone out of their way to disassociate themselves from these phenomena.

People such as Mark Lipstitch are more than welcome to stay inside, doing what their ‘Sugar Daddy Science” tells them to do (although maybe someone should be checking in on him from time to time as they failed to do with his buddy Epstein). However, we should be concerned about his motivations for keeping the rest of us there.

Sorry about the long post.

KH1485
KH1485
24 days ago

I’m grateful that you’ve taken the time to respond.

Gracie Knoll
Gracie Knoll
24 days ago
Reply to  Beacritical

Big Pharma propaganda masquerading as medical science. Where the hell are all our doctors who should be challenging this?

Natural herd immunity. Vitamin D. Healthy diet (low sugar and carb, high healthy fat.) Sunshine. Sleep. Exercise. Even Neanderthal Man knew this..

If the Pharma boys have to be involved, they can sell us their cheap off label drugs that are already making a difference. Or a new PROPERLY TESTED oral drug that can be used as needed and not forced on an entire population at virtual gunpoint.

And don’t get me started on “Professor Bill Gates’ Magic “Final Solution” Vaccine Tonic”……modern day snake oil salesman, only about 1% as ethical and 100% more creepy.

Disgusting statement by our Govt but we know who lines their pockets.

Sorry, but I’m in a seriously bad mood today. Lockdown is having the same effect on many.

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

Where are the doctors who should be challenging this? Check out Dr Malcolm Kendrick’s blog.

Beacritical
Beacritical
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

I’m in a horrible mood too, doubt you need to apologise for that here.

Paul B
Paul B
24 days ago
Reply to  Beacritical

Had any dealing with the NHS in the last 20 years? ‘Take these pills, puff on this’ but it says here that suicide, failed organs and death are potential side effects!? ‘Why are you being argumentative, I’m a Dr don’t you know!?’ Fresh air, sunshine and healthy eating are on the whole free, I’m amazed now that I think about it why they actually push expensive, dangerous drugs first, guess they have to justify their existence somehow.

KH1485
KH1485
24 days ago
Reply to  Paul B

Oh god, don’t I just know about that. I am beyond angry that they may be foisting their wretched vaccines on us. And what terrifies me (sorry to bang on about this but it’s personal) is will getting out of lockdown be dependent on having to submit to the vaccine?

KH1485
KH1485
24 days ago
Reply to  KH1485

And the really galling thing about that is that they form a pretty substantial part of insitutional pension funds (an industry I used to work in). So, my antipathy is further complicated by the fact that I (along with many, many others) will be the beneficiary (if that’s the right word) of that “bonanza” (that’s assuming that the collapse of other major industries in which they are invested doesn’t decimate the remaining value of those pension funds).

IanE
IanE
24 days ago
Reply to  Paul B

Well, I would just comment that sometimes their drugs do help. I developed arthritis rather suddenly (and badly) 3 years ago. I was in fact starting to wonder if Dignitas might have a solution (luckily I’m happily married and I wouldn’t actually do such whilst my wife was alive): after a few weeks with various specialists, tests etc they tried out several drugs and, I have to say that I will indeed ‘drink a drink a drink to Lily the Pink’. I have to be a bit careful not to do too much heavy exercise, but I’m pretty much back to normal [in so far as anyone or anything is normal following Boris’s Chamberlain act!].

Gracie Knoll
Gracie Knoll
24 days ago
Reply to  IanE

There’s no doubt that drugs can and do help in the right circumstances, when they are the best option and in some situations, they can be lifesaving. However in the majority of health problems they are either NOT the best solution – and indeed may be the worst – or they are only a partial answer and other things should be given equal, if not more, prominence.

As an example, early in my career as a physio I saw a lady with rheumatoid arthritis who had been on HUGE doses of steroids for 5 years; they just slightly took the edge off her pain.

I suggested she try cutting all the pro-inflammatory foods from her diet and wrote everything down for her. She was completely out of pain in five days. Two weeks later her lifelong asthma had disappeared.

I’ve had many others like her where simple treatments were vastly more effective than years of drugs. Think about it: cause and effect. Your arthritis was unlikely to have been caused by a drug deficiency!

IanE
IanE
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

She was lucky – and yes they did also try a range of non-medicinal approaches before escalating. My arthritis is almost certainly genetic on my mother’s side. I’m surprised that they kept her on steroids, they very briefly put me on a low dose to relieve the pain and dramatic oedema, but then went to much less risky alternatives.

Gracie Knoll
Gracie Knoll
24 days ago
Reply to  IanE

The case in question was at the start of my career, 30 years ago. The lady was on a sustained and huge dose of steroids that would be considered malpractice today; she had a well developed “moon face” and “buffalo hump”.

It was her spectacular remission that woke me up to the limitations of drugs, and to questioning the rationale behind prescribing them. R.A. is an autoimmune disease; our immune systems have not evolved to try to kill us so something must be buggering up the function of the aforesaid system. In some cases this might be genetic (although I suspect that the word “genetic” is a codeword, like “idiopathic” or “essential”, that means “we haven’t got a clue”) but in my experience it’s often lifestyle and its effect on the gut microbiome, mitochondrial function and systemic inflammation.

(In any case, as Dr. Bruce Lipton has said, epigenetics trumps genetics, and epigenetics is controlled by the patient’s environment and lifestyle.)

She has not been my only “lucky” client by a long chalk. OTOH others have, like yourself, had great relief from medication and haven’t had much in the way of side effects, especially if it was a short-term course of drugs which allowed the immune system a chance to re-set itself.

If a client is happy and well on medication I definitely don’t want to interfere, but if they’re struggling and the medics have effectively given up on the case, then I’ll offer what advice I can.

Gracie Knoll
Gracie Knoll
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

Addendum: The comment about our immune systems not having evolved to kill us, but can potentially kill us if something buggers them up, is of course applicable to the current crisis.

Most Covid deaths result from the cytokine storm – a hyped-up immune system over reacting and producing massive levels of inflammation. What’s becoming clear in this crisis is that LIFESTYLE factors such as obesity and low vitamin D levels, have a huge ability to bugger up normal immune function.

chris c
chris c
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

There are times when drugs are helpful or even necessary, but the majority of them are antidotes to the high carb low fat diet, which wrecks your health but is profitable and needs chasing with some of the most profitable drugs.

Excellent talk here by Ron Rosedale and Ivor Cummins

https://thefatemperor.com/ep67-ron-rosedale-md-crucial-explanation-on-how-to-avoid-serious-viral-impacts/

I absolutely concur, my immune system was crap for most of my life, but for the last fifteen years I have hardly caught anything. Today I fed my mitochondria with a giant rump steak and buttered asparagus, yesterday was liver and bacon with a giant mushroom and broccoli, then there was prawns and cashew nuts with multicoloured peppers and chillies and garlic fried in coconut oil. They seem to like that sort of thing. Oh and I spend time in the sun and eat grass-fed butter, cheese and fish so I’m good for vitamin D. And I mostly avoid wheat, soy and industrially produced omega 6 seed oils.

I wish I’d discovered this sixty years ago.

KH1485
KH1485
23 days ago
Reply to  chris c

Couldn’t agree more. The food giants get people hooked on their junk and then the pharmaceutical industry steps in to ‘appear’ to cure the resultant chronic illness. The scales initally fell from my eyes (after years of being misdiagnosed) by reading ‘Trick and Treat’ by Barry Groves. My main debt of gratitude however goes to John Yudkin, another brave scientist who was denigrated by his peers. But, oh boy, hasn’t he been proved right.

KH1485
KH1485
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

I agree. I would far rather, as far as possible, look to modifying my way of life than taking medication. Years ago my doctor tried to prescribe me with statins. I didn’t like the sound of that so I looked into it and was hugely influenced by Dr Malcolm Kendrick (who is also getting plenty of mentions on the COVID issue). I made an informed decision, rejected the Ancel Keys theory and took repsonsibility for my own health. It works for me and I want that autonomy as far as *my* health is concerned which is why the thought of a Nurse Ratched type bearing down on me with a syringe full of god knows what fills me with horror.

Jane
Jane
23 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

I also cured asthma by taking vitamin D and going on a fairly paleo diet. You don’t even have to be particularly strict.

KH1485
KH1485
24 days ago
Reply to  IanE

I’m glad that your arthritis has been relieved by medication. I’m not dissing all drugs, in fact I was very grateful for a migraine tablet the other evening! My point is that BigPharma’s aim appears to be to get everyone on long-term medication (statins/anti-depressants etc.). Believe me, I know from personal experience that this kind of long-term dependence on medication sometimes has fatal consequences. Not only that but the practice of polypharmacy is very worrying.

IanE
IanE
24 days ago
Reply to  Beacritical

Quite – I seem to recall that SARS just died out, full stop.

swedenborg
swedenborg
24 days ago
Reply to  AnotherSceptic

No haircut until 4th July probaly no problem for Boris

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  swedenborg

My hair now needs its own workstation 🙁

BecJT
BecJT
24 days ago
Reply to  AnotherSceptic

I don’t think the roadmap is key, I think the socioeconomic discussion is (that’s my professional niche, I was quite impressed with it) is key. What that says to me, underneath the waffle, is ‘your move Labour’. See also Trevor Kavanagh (I know, I know) in the Currant Bun n.co.uk/news/11592292/trevor-kavanagh-lockdown-terrible-mistake/

Cbird
Cbird
24 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

Link doesn’t work?

BecJT
BecJT
24 days ago
Reply to  Cbird

Sorry, was rushing, try this thesun.co.uk/news/11592292/trevor-kavanagh-lockdown-terrible-mistake/

Julian
Julian
23 days ago
Reply to  AnotherSceptic

Everybody in this country ought to be forced to read this document carefully and discuss it with others, including people whose points of view they do not currently share. The key points I take away from it are these: There are three phases. We are moving into Phase 2 – “Smarter controls”. Phase 3 is when we have an effective vaccine and/or treatment. Phase 2 is vague and will just be variations, more or less stringent, of what we have at present. There is a crystal clear statement that Phase 3 MAY NEVER BE REACHED, so we will carry on with Phase 2. That means FOREVER folks. There is almost no mention, for example, of any real intention to condone unfettered socialising outside of your household, other than MAYBE with one other selected household. Now, variations of Phase 2 will hopefully be minor or maybe less minor improvements on where we are now – BUT. It’s absolutely clear to me that the govt intends to continue to interfere in aspects of people’s and businesses’ private and public lives to keep COVID-19 death rate down to some kind of “acceptable” level for as long as Phase 2 lasts, which it admits could be forever. I think they want to find a way to run the country sustainably while keeping us all 2 metres apart, forever. This is the “new normal”. This is incredibly dangerous and could plunge us into a dystopian future for generations. It’s bad enough that the current “lockdown” has hardly been challenged, but it’s much much worse that this document is not ringing alarm bells with major public figures or with the mainstream media. The mentality it will cement into people’s minds will poison human life in this country.

Mimi
Mimi
24 days ago

Switzerland is accelerating its opening! https://www.thelocal.ch/20200429/bars-restaurants-and-schools-to-open-again-as-switzerland-relaxes-coronavirus-lockdown

Thank god for independent minded mountain isolationist nations!

My family had a lovely Mother’s Day lunch at a restaurant in Greenville, SC yesterday! Our server wore a mask, which was creepy, but otherwise it was just like any normal Sunday – beautiful weather, shade from the ginkgo tree on the patio, a bottle of Cava…. Happy families all around, with children and grandparents sitting CLOSE to one another!

Probably we’ll all die of COVID tomorrow, but it was so worth it.

Beacritical
Beacritical
24 days ago
Reply to  Mimi

Careful haha, I’m from Switzerland and they like policing their citizens. They arrested a doctor and put him in a psych ward for being critical about the lockdown if I remember correctly. Their excuse was that he was a danger to his colleagues and family, which it has been revealed was not true. There are huge pharmaceutical interests at play there. That said, I’d rather be there right now as I enviously watch them open up swimming pools and gyms 🙁

Glad you and your family had a lovely day yesterday.

KH1485
KH1485
24 days ago
Reply to  Beacritical

A latter-day Semmelweis …

Jane
Jane
24 days ago
Reply to  Beacritical

I think it was a female doctor.

T. Prince
T. Prince
24 days ago
Reply to  Beacritical

“They arrested a doctor and put him in a psych ward for being critical about the lockdown”

You’ll find it here

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

RDawg
RDawg
24 days ago
Reply to  Mimi

But you won’t die of, you’ll die “with” 😉

Victoria
Victoria
24 days ago
Reply to  Mimi

Nice! No you won’t die of COVID – ensure you have a high functioning immune system

Gracie Knoll
Gracie Knoll
24 days ago

Guy de la Bedoyere’s comment sums everything up:

“We really are at a fork in the road. In one direction lies the complete end of everything we have ever held dear and a life literally not worth living, a mere spectral existence in a paralyzed and terrified surveillance state of agoraphobics queuing up like mendicant friars for government handouts. In the other lies some sort of chance to learn to live with the virus crisis and use self-determination to overcome it within the context of all the other challenges we face. For Boris Johnson the prospect is simple. He either becomes an undisguised totalitarian and goes the way of all such leaders, or he uses his consummate political skills to worm his and our way out of this mess while leaving his critics floundering in his wake.

I know which one I’m hoping for.”

(source: https://lockdownsceptics.org/britains-covid-reich/ )

IanE
IanE
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

My suspicion is that he will go the disguised totalitarian route – using the sofa much as Bliar did!

Lms2
Lms2
23 days ago
Reply to  IanE

I’m not so sure that’s his instinct, any more than it is Trump’s. Whether he’s able to see through all the hysterical and overblown “scientific” predictions and group think is another matter.
I don’t see Boris as a totalitarian in waiting.

Willow
Willow
23 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

I think that choice was made when Boris elected to place the nation under indefinite house arrest and to suspend democracy. I’m going to go further and say that this is a coup. Democracy has fallen. The constitutional monarchy has been mothballed. The government aren’t being incompetent or foolish, they are burning the economy because that’s the plan. The end of this road is dystopia. I’m sorry if that sounds dramatic. I no longer have any belief whatsoever that science, economics or plain common sense are going to shift policy. I fervently hope I’m wrong. I want to wake up and find it was a bad dream. The only hope I have now is for the judicial review. I would run. But there’s nowhere to go.

RDawg
RDawg
24 days ago

Sorry if this comes across as anti-left. I am of no political affiliation and certainly do not regard myself as right wing or left-wing, BUT Jeremy Corbyn has no idea about how an economy works and the importance of keeping it going in maintaining a higher standard or living and thus longer life expectancy. It’s not a case of lives vs economy and “private profit”. This is BS political spin. The economy IS lives.

Without the economy we have no employment. Without employment or a business to run, people have no income and people starve. Without taxes, we have no money to pay for public services like furloughing staff, social care, “our great NHS heroes”, police, fire service etc. It is the biggest fallacy of all that closing the economy is “protecting the NHS”. It is having the exact opposite effect. A lot of the hard left simply fail to grasp this concept. Their naivety and ignorance is shameful.

How can a man of supposedly high intelligence, not understand that a flourishing economy = flourishing way of life = better healthcare and living standards for all. He is all about political point scoring, without any thought or integrity in what he blurts out on his Twitter feed. Urrrrgh rant over.

And breathe.

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

Yes indeed. Jezza keeps confirming why I couldn’t vote for him (when he announced his pronouns was my comedy moment of the year). Boris is also currently confirming why I couldn’t vote for him either.

RDawg
RDawg
24 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

It’s the great illusion of democracy. We are given a choice of two very poorly run political parties, but neither are very good.

The Tory voters must be feeling pretty short-changed. They hoped for a libertarian Prime Minister who would be pro business. Instead they got a socialist de facto dictator.

KH1485
KH1485
24 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

Peter Hitchens has been saying this for years.

Sceptic
Sceptic
24 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

It’s just the usual virtue signalling. Easy to do when you aren’t in charge.

BecJT
BecJT
24 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

Yep, and it is this moral cowardice, in fact rank dishonesty that has made me unfriend most of my lefty mates. What’s their big solution? Are they grappling with ANY of it, or just sniping about PPE and perspex screens at work? Plus it was a key plank of the Left’s material analysis that health and wealth are connected (this is why they bang on – rightly in my view, the data is unequivocal – about social and economic inequality). I’ve come to the view that middle class lefties are willing people to die, because it helps their ‘evil tories’ batshit, cult like thinking (and I’ve never voted Tory in my life). Honestly, I’m disgusted with the lot of them, it’s so disingenuous.

Mark
Mark
24 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

Misanthropy is an ever=present occupational hazard for dissidents.

BecJT
BecJT
24 days ago
Reply to  Mark

I was discussing this with two friends today, we all say we feel we are being rebuilt from the ground up, everything I thought I believed is in flux, the people I thought were solid, are not, things I never thought I’d see people say, I have (e.g. I am no fan of our prime minister, I don’t wish the man dead (or anyone for that matter), lots of people really, really do, and weren’t embarrassed to say it!), just everything I thought was universally accepted as right, and not a point of disagreement, clearly is. I’m still reeling. I am generally a chirpy and easy going person, but this, good grief!

Biker
Biker
24 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

it’s sobering to realise that virtue is the vilest of human traits but once you realise you’re stronger for it.

Lms2
Lms2
23 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

Or to explain it another way, lockdown is what happens when you’re busy making other plans.
Ten years ago, I was still working, minding my own business as most people were, I hadn’t taken a holiday in years, and this year, finally retired, I was looking forward to a couple of weeks away, spreading my hard-earned cash around to other people in the process instead of leaving it to the State to waste when I finally fall off the perch, and here we all are instead, under near house arrest, foreign travel off the agenda for the foreseeable future, with the government and others exerting more control over us than has happened in 1000 years (1066 and the Norman invasion).

Nigel Baldwin
Nigel Baldwin
24 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

Full disclosure: I am (or was) one of those middle-class lefties and I’ve never felt anything like that at all.

Morris_Day
Morris_Day
24 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

The Cult of Corbyn is alive and miserable. Their continued complaining is dominant on my social media timeline (I used to run a music blog / label, so following lots of music bloggers etc).

Whenever I see billionaires and profits used as an argumenet, I ask the person where they shop, and when the answer is a supermarket (it always is), I tell them to quit their hypocrisy.

I then point them in the direction of the top Google return for SME’s, and ask them how long they think those jobs will last when the majority of them currently are operating on next to no income, and what that will mean to the Country.

‘SMEs account for 99.9% of the business population (5.9 million businesses). SMEs account for three fifths of the employment and around half of turnover in the UK private sector. Total employment in SMEs was 16.6 million (60% of the total), whilst turnover was estimated at £2.2 trillion (52%).

Ianric
Ianric
24 days ago
Reply to  Morris_Day

If large numbers of small businesses go bust, the consequences will be disastrous. Small businesses are likely to contribute more to the local economy. For instance, independent restaurants use local accountants to do their accounts, local printers for their menus and local suppliers for their ingredients. If independent restaurants go bust, local businesses will be hit.

My area is heavily dependent on tourism and I can see how the closure of small businesses will affect the area. Most of the hotels in my area are independent hotels which unlike chain hotels are less likely to cope with being unable to operate. If large numbers of hotels, campsites and caravan parks go bust, this will reduce the supply of accommodation which prevents people coming to stay. Remaining hotels will have less competition which gives them the ability to put up prices.

Due to this stupid lockdown we are denied simple pleasures to eat out, go for a drink or get a haircut.

It is a disgrace perfectly healthy businesses are being destroyed.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
24 days ago
Reply to  Ianric

It’s not just small businesses that are in danger. I work and volunteer in the museums and heritage sector and the fallout from this will bring my sector its knees faster than any funding cuts and donation shortfall ever would. Small museums are already sounding the alarm of the continued existence of their sites.

What annoys me are colleagues who are obsessing about social distancing and PPE when the former is nigh on impossible while the latter will make us look unwelcoming and inappropriate. My heart sinks every time I read and hear people I know dismiss concerns about mental health and well being being the main casualty of what we’re experiencing now.

My sector will not recover for many years and I predict that permanent jobs already hard to come by even in the good times will be rarer than hen’s teeth and replaced by a plethora of temporary and/or zero hours contracts.

Ianric
Ianric
24 days ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

I was also wandering about the impact of the lockdown on attractions such as museum if they can’t receive income from visitors. Insecure employment will damage the economy as people on temporary contracts will not wish to spend money as they don’t have a regular income and there is less tax revenue as people in and out of work will not pay regular income tax in comparison with people in permanent jobs.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
23 days ago
Reply to  Ianric

The place I work depends on visitor revenue as we don’t receive any funding from the state and whilst we’ve been fortunate to have built up a nest egg over the years the prolonged lockdown will deplete that and we will spend the next few years trying to recoup that. The museums and heritage sector will struggle for a long time with regards to what you’ve stated above, generally people will be tightening their belts and unfortunately going to attractions will be a casualty of this belt tightening.

chris c
chris c
24 days ago
Reply to  Ianric

Not so many tourists and hotels here but otherwise much the same. Some of my food could walk here and much of the rest comes from not far away via local shops.

It’s the people like plumbers, electricians, builders, decorators, gardeners etc. who won’t be there after the lockdown ends (if it ever ends)

Ianric
Ianric
23 days ago
Reply to  chris c

Some sectors of the economy are dominated by small businesse where there no big business to take over from if businesses go bust which will deprive people of access to services if businesses go bust. An example are barbers and hairdressers which are run by independent traders with normally just one shop and if these businesses go bust there isn’t a big national chain of hairdressers and barbers to take over their trade.

Carrie
Carrie
23 days ago
Reply to  Ianric

Watch UK column and you will see that ‘the plan’ is for 50-60% of businesses to never open again https://21stcenturywire.com/2020/05/11/ukc-news-covid-lockdown-stop-light-system-evidence-of-govt-using-msm-for-psyops/

Tim
Tim
24 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

Agreed. I have no political ideology, but I recognise that good Socialist works can only be paid for by a thriving economy. Corbyn doesn’t see that. I think he still believes in the Money Tree.

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  Tim

I think he knows full well the importance of the economy but is determined to retain the moniker of Comrade at whatever cost. Which is almost worse than if he was genuinely dim or naive. Especially when you take into account the betrayal of his own lifelong principles (anti-EU) at the drop of a hat. Is he cowardly or does he just want to be popular…. But only with the right sort of people?

When people say he enjoys being an activist not a politician I think they are by and large correct ….. Although of course he can behave politically in completely the wrong way at the wrong
time 😂

Anyway this is lockdown sceptics not Jezza sceptics but if their was a blog for that I’d be a member too…..

Victoria
Victoria
24 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

Agree a strong economy will save lives, no economy will result in many deaths and long term misery.

Evoluon
Evoluon
24 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

RDawg, I dont think that you have much idea of how the economy works either. Taxes don`t pay for public services in the Uk or any other nation with its own sovereign currency. The tax money is destroyed when the government receives it. The treasury/Bank of England creates new money with computer keystrokes when it spends. I agree with you though that Corbyn is wrong about the lockdown, and that it is disasterous for the economy, but he is right about much else.

Nick
Nick
24 days ago
Reply to  Evoluon

You what??? Can you explain this further please?

RDawg
RDawg
24 days ago
Reply to  Evoluon

Evoluon, if you don’t believe that our taxes pay for our public services, I can’t help you. If you’re referring to the printing of money or “quantitative easing” as it is otherwise known, this happens when there is not enough money in the supply chain. It’s an artificial attempt to boost a struggling economy. The big problem however is it leads to mass inflation, so the domestic currency effectively loses its buying power and it erodes the value of savings and investments. Perhaps the greatest example (and most harrowing) of this is what happened in Zimbabwe under Mugabe. Google it. It will be an education for you.

With all this free time in lockdown, I recommend you purchase a copy of this book:

https://www.waterstones.com/book/economics-for-dummies/peter-antonioni/sean-masaki-flynn/

Evoluon
Evoluon
24 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

RDawg – I wont require your reading suggestion "economics for dummies", thanks . Like many people you have completely swallowed the traditional economic myths around money creation, taxation and the public debt. The main function of taxes in a modern sovereign economy is to ensure, firstly, that taxation gets people in the country to use the government-issued currency. Because they have to pay income taxes in pounds the British have a reason to earn pounds, spend pounds, and otherwise use pounds as opposed to, say, bitcoins or euros. Second, taxes are one tool governments can use to control inflation. They take money out of the economy, which keeps people from bidding up prices. Thirdly, taxes can be used to encourage other government policy goals - e.g. equality, or for public health reasons, such as alcohol or cigarette duties. As regards money creation, I dont mean quantative easing, which is actually pretty ineffective. Im talking about any goverment expenditure. Whenever the government spends it pushes money into the economy. A government with its own soverign currency can never run out of money. It doesnt have to borrow. The only constraint on its spending is inflation, or its own ideolical stance on the size of the public sector . Logically the spending has to come before the taxation. Im afraid, RDawg, that you may have to undergo a paradigm shift. I suggest you buy this book "Macroeconomics" by Randall Wary, Bill Mitchell and Martin Watts. It will be an education for you. The usual tired-old cliches about Zimbawe and the Weimar republic hyperinflations are dealt with in this book. The situation in those two countries which suffered from very specfic resource constraints are in no way related to the normal process of money creation and taxation within todays UK economy.

Evoluon
Evoluon
24 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

As i said before logically the spending must come before the taxation. The government may argue in their documentation that there is a link between taxation and spending but in fact whenever the government spends it does not use your taxes. Instead it tells the Bank of England to make payments for it. In effect, it borrows. That is why we’ve had a UK government debt since 1694. Literally, the Bank of England creates the money the government spends, which is a process that doesn’t involve a printing press. All the Bank does is some double entry bookkeeping. It debits the government’s loan account with the amount to be spent, and it credits the government’s current account. And the government then spends the money, just as anyone can when they have a current account in credit. And then what HMRC do is pay whatever they collect into the Treasury loan account at the Bank of England to help clear it. The leftover balance in that loan account is then cleared by the issue of bonds (or gilts) or quantitative easing funding.

the relationship can be formally summarised as:

G = T + ∆B + ∆M

Where:

G = Government spending

T = Net tax receipts

B = Borrowing (and so ∆B is the change in borrowing in a period)

M = Government created money (and so ∆M is the change in that sum during a period).

There is then no direct relationship at all between government spending and tax, which is exactly what HMRC have now confirmed in a recent FOI request. All they do is help clear the Treasury loan account at the Bank of England, just as government borrowing and quantitative easing funding do as well.

But what that means is that the next time the government say they are spending taxpayers’ money you know that’s not true because there is, quite literally, no way they can say that given the economic reality of what is going on. They’re always spending the Bank of England’s money, which is then cleared by taxes,

SteveB
SteveB
23 days ago
Reply to  Evoluon

Ok, MMT is very trendy, to my mind that’s just semantics.

Do you accept that if the government increases spending and then doesn’t increase taxation or find some other way of extracting money back out of the economy, then that leads to inflation?

And do you accept that inflation is, on balance, a Bad Thing?

Lms2
Lms2
23 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

At least his brother seems to understand this.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/1259781429766078465?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

And thinks the climate change agenda is a scam.

Paul Ballard
Paul Ballard
24 days ago

Another great feature Toby. I agree with the chap that you mention and having to be careful to express any other views on FB, although I do copy the link to this site on a regular basis as I don’t care if people do not like it. I am amazed by how the vast majority have just sucked up lock down, but I also believe there are a large silent minority that think its plain crazy.
You make a good point re. antibody testing, weeks ago there were articles written about millions already having had it with no symptoms. Was that then true, but the Government does not want anyone mentioning that uncomfortable truth? Or untrue and the Government has decided to not let let anyone know? Or we are still as clueless now as we were weeks ago as the Government hasn’t bothered to find out?
How hard would it be to test a few hundred thousand in London to check who has and hasn’t had it and work out a percentage? Surely that is possible and it would sort out the crazy differences in mortality rates?
I live in Cornwall and yesterday the local radio station news was saying that there are fewer deaths in 2020 than in 2019 YTD. I haven’t checked the ONS but presume they will be correct. BUT…..I still cannot go out properly, I have all the same restrictions as if I was in London. The local hospital is not inundated either. Same as most of the country I imagine.
Like most people I do what the Government have asked. Do I agree with it Nationwide, no. Do I think its OTT across the whole country, yes. Surely in parts of the country not badly affected you could get your hair cut or buy a pasty !
I voted for Boris as the alternative was truly terrible, but I think like a lot of people he is becoming what we expected……the best of two pretty bad choices.

Nigel Baldwin
Nigel Baldwin
24 days ago
Reply to  Paul Ballard

Facebook and other social media have wiped out debate. If you don’t agree with someone’s thread you are a pariah (at best). I mentioned on yesterday’s blog that kids of my friends have gone apoplectic about the ever-so-slight lifting of ‘regulations’. I despair of their collective intelligence. They don’t seem to know how an economy functions. I’ve had my hand bitten by the Left and I don’t care (was once part of the machinery) but I sympathise with the bloke from Bexhill. Tell him (it was a ‘he’ wasn’t it?) I’m just down the road in Eastbourne and there’s no resistance here either.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Nigel Baldwin

Fb is full of lockdownistas, post your indignation at your peril! Somebody mentioned that 1 to 1 us best and get presto, what are we allowed to do? Visit people 1 to 1…

Spread the truth virus…

Carlo
Carlo
23 days ago
Reply to  ianp

So true I have been attacked many times.

guy153
guy153
24 days ago
Reply to  Paul Ballard

If the antibody tests confirmed the doom narrative they would have published them.

They’re not publishing them so they can “manage” our descent from phobia with infantile dials and traffic lights and things and give themselves the credit for their great victory in the war against the virus.

Jeff
Jeff
24 days ago
Reply to  guy153

So which truth is hiding the anti-body tests trying to cover up:
A) that we’ve almost all had it, and mostly recovered, because this would manage to panic the zealots even if they realised themselves immune “it was disguting” they’d say “subjecting us to herd immunity”
B) that nearly nobody has had it and therefore the zealots can panic about what will happen when they get it, as if anti-body rates are low most people won’t have had it yet “doom is still to come” they’ll say

I hope its covering up A, but don’t really think that a government would try to cover up that scenario?

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  Jeff

It’s A. Well not ‘almost all’ maybe but a good proportion- enough to take the IFR through the floor and make a mockery of the whole shitshow. The R value. The lockdown. The polciing by consent. The food stockpiling. The facemasks. The slogans. The fear-mongering. The PPE clamouring. The ventilator bartering. The ONS. The ICL. PHE. All of it.

Miss T
Miss T
24 days ago

Antibody tests ….. coming to a Boots near you soon wasn’t it?

This is the last thing the government wants made available and it will clearly show what a sham this whole debacle is and just how few people are dying.

Around 15% of people they tested have it presently, if you extrapolate out it’s likely another 15-25% will have had it historically so we’re potentially looking at 20 million people. Given deaths have been misrecorded to an unbelievable level it is probably safe to say only 20,000 people have died from it and even that’s dubious. The death rate is therefore infinitesimal.

The government need to be held to account for this and called out. You simply cannot know the danger of something unless you do random tests to see how dangerous it actually is. At present we’re guessing, driven by crummy Daily Mail reports “90,000 cases : 20,000 deaths” or whatever hysteria and nonsense they peddle.

We need to test like exit polls at elections, 10,000 people in varying locations country and urban, all ages and races: a cross section. This will pretty much tell us the final result for the entire population but at the moment we’re flying blind.

Here’s a private company if anyone wants to know if they’ve had it.

https://www.privatecoronavirustests.com/product/abbott-igg-antibody-test?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI5Jz9noms6QIVG-ztCh0N7w_7EAAYASAAEgLNa_D_BwE

Hers the Telegraph article about the tests:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/10/how-coronavirus-antibody-home-test-kit-work-order/amp/

Sceptic
Sceptic
24 days ago
Reply to  Miss T

We should all have the tests and if positive tell anyone who will listen ‘I’m acting in the belief that I am immune’

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
24 days ago
Reply to  Miss T

But the tests are unreliable and don’t prove anything, so what’s the point?

Sceptic
Sceptic
24 days ago
Reply to  Cheezilla

Abbott are saying:

“This test has proven to be 100% sensitive in identifying antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus at 14 days after onset of covid-19 symptoms. Or put another way, everyone who had an illness that was confirmed to be caused by covid-19 developed IgG antibodies 14 days later so there were no false negatives.”

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Miss T

Honestly, the government is on our side. They will take flak for sure, but when the rest of the world is pursuing this daft strategy, what were they meant to do?

The MSM media has been responsible. Hold them to account

Then educate the sheep

Jeff
Jeff
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

The MSM have been extremely guilty, but that doesn’t imply that the government is necessarily innocent.

Willow
Willow
23 days ago
Reply to  ianp

I’m sorry but that isn’t true. The government consulted with behavioural scientists to create the conditions for mass hysteria. It was deliberate psychological warfare in which the media were employed as instruments.
This video explains it
https://www.ukcolumn.org/ukcolumn-news/uk-column-news-11th-may-2020
But you can see for yourself. The document was released into the public domain as a result of the JR
https://t.co/9krIVme7tO?amp=1

Thunderchild
Thunderchild
24 days ago
Reply to  Miss T

I found only one mention of antibody tests in the whole of the government’s roadmap, on page 38. Would seem to indicate how keen they are on the holy grail of a vaccine and how little they care about the development of natural (and cheaper) widespread immunity.

Bob
Bob
24 days ago

Just posting again from yesterday’s comments:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HR8AMfSuKFY&feature=youtu.be

This is a very interesting UK-based discussion on how the death rate spike could be inflated.

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
24 days ago
Reply to  Bob

Thanks for posting this. I missed it yesterday. Brilliant discussion and good to get a proper eyewitness report from a hospital worker. Well worth a listen (try 1.5 speed).

Sceptic
Sceptic
24 days ago
Reply to  Bob

This is great and lots of insights very helpful

Mark Gobell
Mark Gobell
24 days ago
Reply to  Bob

Thank you Bob. Very useful discussion.

Excess deaths explained thus :

Excess deaths for care home residents can be explained by the denial of the usual life prolonging care normally received during their extended stays in hospitals. For care home patients, these stays have been cut short, for various reasons discussed in the video, including policy decisions not to treat and the encouragement of DNR statements. These elderly multi co-morbid patients, having “tested positive for covid-19” are then discharged back their care homes, where they inevitably die from their underlying causes, just as they would have in hospital under normal circumstances.

Note also that Section 14 of the Coronavirus Act 2020 : NHS Continuing Healthcare assessments: England, changed the requirements for carrying out assessments in respect of Continuing Healthcare to facilitate patients’ rapid discharge from hospital. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2020/7/part/1/crossheading/nhs-and-local-authority-care-and-support/enacted

See here : Coronavirus Act 2020 – Changes to NHS continuing healthcare and NHS funded nursing care. http://www.bevanbrittan.com/insights/articles/2020/coronavirus-act-2020-changes-to-nhs-continuing-healthcare-and-nhs-funded-nursing-care/

The point is made in the discussion that at some time in the future, there will be a corresponding reduction in overall morbidity in these age groups, from all causes, simply because these deaths had occurred earlier and have been characterised as CV-19. Although I agree logically with this, I suspect any such trend will be near impossible to detect at a later date.

MG

Mark Gobell
Mark Gobell
24 days ago
Reply to  Mark Gobell

*reduction in overall mortality

MG

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Mark Gobell

Front loading the stats… Excerbating ‘the curve’. Smart move given this sadly a frustrating long game.. but we all know where it will lead. To the truth, sooner rather than later

The speed of this is up to us

A Meshiea
A Meshiea
24 days ago

Toby I hope you are right on your theory that the R will not go up.
Problematically I think the lockdown and primarily the closing of schools, has worked TOO well in dropping transmission amongst the healthy, and has been brilliant in infecting the vulnerable.
So I DO think the daily death rates will remain low barring some more care home transmissions, the infection rates should go way up.
The problem is is that the government is shifting the focus into infection rates rather than deaths as a basis for imposing more draconian economy destroying measures. So instead of celebrating our growing herd immunity, it will panic the cowering population into prolonging this travesty.

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  A Meshiea

This too is my fear. Too much emphasis on testing the healthy or asymptomatic population and not enough on antibody testing – which means they WILL find more cases. They will effectively root them out, wherever they may be. Followed swiftly by ‘whoops!! More cases!!’ and the inevitable Lockdown Mk 2. Despite the fact most of these cases will be amongst the easily recoverable sections of society.

Nigel Baldwin
Nigel Baldwin
24 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

Well if there’s a Lockdown Mk2 is there anyone courageous enough to do some calculations about how many will die as a result? Obviously more than the virus will see away which means, once again, there is very likely to be a hidden agenda.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  A Meshiea

They have to state ‘cases’ because they are being forced to by MSM. Don’t bother with all that rubbish

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  A Meshiea

MSM is focusing on cases!!

Not the government!

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

It doesn’t matter. Last time they bowed to media pressure – so they can bow to media pressure again.

Mark Gobell
Mark Gobell
24 days ago
Reply to  A Meshiea

The probability of multiple lockups is written into the provisions Coronavirus Act 2020 whereby the lockup switch can simply be flipped on upon the Secretary of State’s designation of a “Transmission Control Period” ( TCP ).

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2020/7/pdfs/ukpga_20200007_en.pdf

TCP – not to be confused with the internet Transmission Control Protocol or the TCP antiseptic liquid, which, coincidentally, is used to kill pathogenic micro-organisms …

MG

Clarence Beeks
Clarence Beeks
24 days ago

The antibody testing survey ….. Yes, I have today received through the post an “Invitation to participate in a Covid-19 testing research study!”

Apparently it’s random and involves agreeing to participate, receiving a test kit through the post, administering the test then, waiting for a courier to collect it, and off it goes to the lab. I will get the result of the test and the purpose is “help assess how much virus is circulating across the country including in people who do not have any symptoms”.

As it happens I’m in favour of this strategy and if it shows that infections are much higher than previously thought and therefore herd immunity is close or has been reached, then perhaps we can all escape from this slow-motion nightmare.

Only downside is that it is organised via …. Imperial College

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  Clarence Beeks

YAAAAAAAAAAAHHHSSS

*reaches last two words*
Oh.

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  Clarence Beeks

Where do you live, just out of interest?

Clarence Beeks
Clarence Beeks
24 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

Suffolk. It’s a swab test so it only tests for a current infection. I’ve not got, nor ever had, any symptoms so I will be interested to see the outcome. As far as I’m concerned the more people who have it without symptoms the better.

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  Clarence Beeks

The more people who have it asymptomatically – yes, the better.
The more people who have it who the gvt KNOW have it – not the better. 😉
A case is a case, asymptomatic or not, and will be added to the new case figures. The new case figures are what’s gonna be used to send us all back to house arrest.

Jeff
Jeff
24 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

On the other hand, the mroe people who know they’ve got (or with anti-bodies had) it, the better, the larger a mass of the population will see there is less to fear from the virus than from lockdowns.

chris c
chris c
24 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

Suffolk has a pretty low incidence, though not as low as the south west. A strange place to test UNLESS as you say they want to jack up the numbers

Lms2
Lms2
23 days ago
Reply to  Clarence Beeks

Clarence: Then I see no reason for them conducting this test. Selecting people at random to see who has an active infection is too narrow a survey. Of course, you can’t take your own blood sample to check for antibodies, but which would be far more useful,to see the spread in the population already.

GLT
GLT
24 days ago
Reply to  Clarence Beeks

This doesn’t sound like the antibody study that they promised from Porten Down. I think that is from blood samples. I think you are participating in a separate study to find out how many in a random sample test positive for current infection at any given time. High results possibly more likely to precipitate more lockdown as indicative of high infection rates but who knows given the lack of any coherence! High results with no symptoms might also give a better idea of proportion of asymptomatic cases in overall infections.

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  GLT

Yup. Might be better to not actually do the test. As far as I’m concerned the LESS active cases they know about at this stage the better.

I’d do an antibody test tomorrow though.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

Don’t bother. This testing nonsense and statistics just prolongs the inevitable path to the truth

Bob
Bob
24 days ago
Reply to  GLT

Yes, it’s the antibody test that indicates that you have already had the virus and have immunity, whereas the other test (based on PCR) just indicates whether or not you have the viral RNA in your body at the time of the test (false positives not withstanding).

If reliable antibody tests were done on a large scale in the UK the results would very quickly show what level of herd immunity is already present. Given that the virus may have been circulating earlier than previously thought this year then the antibody test might reveal that the majority of people have immunity. Lockdown over!

Bob
Bob
24 days ago
Reply to  Bob

Maybe I’ll get a box set of these for friends and family that I’ve been having heated discussions with:

https://bluehorizonbloodtests.co.uk/collections/covid-19-coronavirus-tests/products/covid-19-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-antibody-home-test-kit

guy153
guy153
24 days ago
Reply to  Bob

Probably not the majority, but enough for herd immunity. I would estimate around 50% are immune in London and one or two other urban areas and about 20% to 30% in most other places, and that this is enough.

coalencanth12
coalencanth12
24 days ago
Reply to  Clarence Beeks

I think a few academic research groups are running their own surveys of immunity which will feed into the overall picture – I know Oxford was running one as well. I would encourage participation to anyone on the forum, and I would put good money that the cretin Ferguson won’t be directly involved, his group don’t have these kind of skills

Carrie
Carrie
23 days ago
Reply to  Clarence Beeks

If it does not involve anyone coming to your house, you could always do like the President of Tanzania and send in a swab from a fruit or similar! They got positive tests from a pawpaw and a goat…
Could be funny if the test showed antibodies 😉

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
24 days ago

I enjoyed this translation of Boris’ speech. It’s from a comment in the Grad this morning:
Current COVID-19 guidance on GOV.UK:

Stay alert

We can all help control the virus if we all stay alert. This means you must:

– Stay at home as much as possible – unless you have to go out, in which case you can go out.
– Work from home if you can – unless you can’t work from home, in which case you must go to work, unless you can’t go to work without using public transport, in which case you must cycle, unless it’s too far, in which case stay at home, but stay alert.
– Limit contact with other people – unless you have to come into contact other people, in which case you can come into contact with other people provided you keep 2 metres away from them, unless your work environment makes it impossible to keep 2 metres apart, in which case try not to breathe.
– Keep your distance if you go out (2 metres apart where possible) – unless you have to go out, and can’t keep 2 metres apart from others, in which case you can go out, just stay as far apart from others as you can, whilst trying not to breathe.
– Wash your hands regularly – unless you have to go out, in which case you can go out, but wash your hands whenever you can.
– Self-isolate if you or anyone in your household has symptoms – unless you have to go out, in which case you can go out, but wash your hands whenever you can, and try and keep 2 metres apart from the hand basin.

[NB. Not to be published or issued in any other format to the general public until this has been signed off by the Prime Minister of England, since this doesn’t seem to make sense to anyone in this Department]

Victoria
Victoria
24 days ago
Reply to  Cheezilla

So true

Kelly
Kelly
24 days ago
Reply to  Cheezilla

That sounds a petty sane strategy to me, perhaps we should have been doing that from the start not all this lockdown lunacy.

Anonymous
Anonymous
24 days ago
Reply to  Cheezilla

I get the impression that the govt want social distancing to fizzle out without officially saying so. Do they really expect everyone to read their guidance?!

ianp
ianp
24 days ago

I keep on saying this and will say it again. There was nothing in government guidelines about compulsory mask wearing. Masks = Fear

This is now a Fear virus.

Everything else is obfuscation to keep people in their fear coma.

The tide is turning. Eventually we will see scientifically accredited information that states that masks are harmful. There’s plenty out there. They should only be used by front line carers and medical staff. MSM will be forced to publish it if you make them do it

I absolutely believe Boris is on our side, and I was never a big fan of his before trust me!

If you want your freedom, take it now.

No mask. No Fear

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

You’re right – the mask is the number one symbol that you’re a believer AKA a bedwetter. Hence I will never wear one.
(I do actually think they’ll probably help you not to infect others if you’re ill but…. If you’re I’ll you shouldn’t be outside at all, no?)

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

Forget it, don’t even pander to that insidious thought, the real virus has gone. You’ve probably already had it. Herd immunity has been achieved

Nigel Baldwin
Nigel Baldwin
24 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

Apparently (I’ve lifted this from some medical website) ‘cloth masks, bandanas, or handkerchiefs will do very little to stop the spread of coronavirus. In fact, they may actually increase your risk of becoming ill from corona and other influenza-like illnesses. A 2015 study found cloth masks, when compared to surgical masks, increase the rate of influenza-like illnesses 13x! Cloth masks are probably best avoided and should not be reused without properly sanitizing them.’

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Nigel Baldwin

Nigel… Yeah known that all along 🙂

That will come out in MSM pretty soon. Our own actions will determine how soon!

JohnB
JohnB
24 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

I like masks – it helps to avoid talking to the wrong people. 🙂

Lms2
Lms2
23 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

If you’re ill with CV19, you won’t be out of bed or off the sofa until you’re no longer infectious in most cases.

Amy
Amy
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

I live in a tiny town on the edge of the wilderness in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, quite close to Canada.

Today I was out and about on this lovely (though intermittently snowy) spring day. I went to the dry cleaners, the garden store, the tire store to order 2 new tires, and Walmart. Right now a landscaping crew is working on our yard and they’re in and out of the house drinking coffee.

All day I only saw masks on the kids bringing out the groceries to the cars at the Walmart grocery pickup and I assume that’s because of a corporate decision. Nobody else in the small businesses I frequented wore masks and when I asked the dry cleaner about it she looked at me like I was an idiot.

My little town leans heavily libertarian, and we’re quite a way from our state capital, so I suppose we’ve all just decided to get on with life. Very sensible people here, most Cornish or from Finland.

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  Amy

Sounds kinda like heaven.

OpenCorona
24 days ago
Reply to  Amy

we live not far away in Minnesota, 10mi inland from Lake Superior. Our remote community is, well, maybe not as libertarian leaning as yours, based on some noise I’ve received from neighbors on some of my online comments. I love the area but need to remember all are not like-minded. With stoic Scandinavian families who have been there for generations, one would expect the same as what you found. I really don’t think we’ll have trouble there without masks, but we shall see. I am ready to justify with a “medical exception” (which they won’t be able to legally inquire about due to ADA/HIPAA privacy law).

DoubtingDave
DoubtingDave
24 days ago

Just been shopping at the “supermarket”, not been for about 10 days. It the the Morereasons flavour of outlet.

Trolley wiping still happening, we (I know two of us going shopping, together, we are rebels) one bloke walked in without a trolley, intending to get a hand basket, staff gave him a bit of paper towel with some concoction on in to clean the handles of his basket. Paper towel already looked well used when passed to this shopper. Walked past him while he was trying to clean the basket, he looked lost with his bit of paper towel, what are the authorities doing to these people.

Only two shoppers wearing masks, one was a surgical mask, the other a black cloth affair. Staff seem to be pushing the distancing theme, shoppers did not seem overly concerned, apart from the aforementioned two. One bloke down the ale & cider isle seemed a little jumpy, but loaded his trolley with alcohol, so that should kill any bugs or help him forget his concerns.

We need a button badge so we know who is sceptical & who needs more help. I would love to be able to have a face to face chat with other sceptics.

D

KH1485
KH1485
24 days ago
Reply to  DoubtingDave

A badge would be a great idea …

Mark
Mark
24 days ago
Reply to  KH1485

Yes, we might be just about getting to the point where a symbol would be useful. Something Toby should set up, imo.

JohnB
JohnB
24 days ago
Reply to  Mark

Yellow vests. Vive les gilets jaune !

Freddy
Freddy
24 days ago
Reply to  KH1485

Could write “the lockdown hurts more than the virus”, or other slogans to similar effect, on a mask, zealots would have a hard time pinning blame on us, we’d be masked afterall, but we’d know each other by sight and we’d be able to spread the message to everyone who glanced at our faces.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  DoubtingDave

Mask = you need help. Pretty easy to see that

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
24 days ago
Reply to  DoubtingDave

I did wonder about getting a t-shirt printed with “You can’t catch it from walking past someone in the street!”

Amy
Amy
24 days ago
Reply to  DoubtingDave

The tone of this report made me laugh pretty hard. Thank you!

FiFi Trixabelle
FiFi Trixabelle
24 days ago

The Paul Weston interview signposted in Toby’s update is fab. Well worth the watch…I’m forwarding it to many of my ‘stay home at all costs’ acquaintances!
Great update Toby.

Beacritical
Beacritical
24 days ago

Hi Toby,

This link https://lockdownsceptics.org/open-businesses/ to the page relating to the searchable directory of open businesses across the UK doesn’t seem to be working. Don’t know if this is the same for others?

Tim
Tim
24 days ago

Most of my Facebook friends … those who bother to comment … seem to be pro-lockdown. Some of them are Socialists who will use any excuse to criticise the government. So far I have resisted answering their posts, as I didn’t want to put friendships on the line. Now I’ve decided to reply to them.

I’m emphasising that I don’t align myself with any political ideology. I try to see things through a humanist lens. What’s best for the people of this planet. And in this case I think what’s best is to let the young people live their lives whilst sheltering the old and vulnerable. It’s a complex equation, and it seems hard hearted to say that the death of a very old person is less tragic than the incarceration of a young one, but I believe it’s true.

I’m finding that by taking a non-confrontational tone I get more thoughtful, sympathetic replies than if I’d gone in with my guns blazing. And so far my friendships are intact.

It’s not much, but it can’t do any harm to try to influence people in this way.

A Meshiea
A Meshiea
24 days ago
Reply to  Tim

Good for you. I think it’s actually vital that you try and persuade as many people as possible.
Of course there are some, amongst my friends and family, that are completely impossible to have a discussion with.
For my own sanity I just avoid them.

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  A Meshiea

You can only do it in person, I find. Or at least on the phone.
People find it a lot harder to call you a hard-right conspiracy nutter to your face.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Tim

Facebook= narcissistic me me me echochamber. Ignore it

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

I spent a lot of time wondering which was worse, Fatfuck or Twatter. Until I realise they were both a drain on my brain and I should just quit them both 😆

coalencanth12
coalencanth12
24 days ago
Reply to  Tim

I have to watch what I say on social media, so I stay rather quiet these days. One of my friends on FB really infuriates me – a lady I did my PhD with married a GP and now lives a rather idyllic life out in the Shires, putting up photos of her lockdown trips with her horses on her rather extensive land holdings, whilst she makes snide remarks about ‘covidiots’ living in grim inner-city estates and how anyone bending lockdown must hate the NHS-god.

The irony here – her and her husband have spent the last few years threatening to strop off to Australia or New Zealand where GP’s ‘so much more valued than they are in the NHS’

JohnB
JohnB
24 days ago
Reply to  coalencanth12

You could send her Australia / New Zealand tourist brochures. Every now and again …

Oaks79
Oaks79
24 days ago

I think I’ve asked every other day on here, what has happened to the thecPorton Down PHE antibody study result that Sir Patrick Vallance mentioned on the 9th of April https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/united-kingdom-covid-19-briefing-transcript-april-9

They was talking this study up as being a key to unlock the lockdown https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-tests-never-heard-hold-key-exit-lockdown/

All gone very quiet, press don’t seem interested.

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  Oaks79

They don’t want us knowing that we’ve all already had it, basically.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Oaks79

Telegraph is MSM so now hopefully this bloody obvious point we all knew at the start will get some traction. And oh, it will…

eastberks44
eastberks44
24 days ago

Can you please fix the link for telling you about businesses that have reopened? Or say which browsers it’s been tested with?

John Lilburne
John Lilburne
24 days ago

Thanks again, Toby, for your daily updated and efforts. I appreciate all of the comments people post as well. Guy’s article is excellent. “All states progress towards totalitarianism” is devastating in its accuracy. How does one combat this?

Protests never work, unless the aim is to increase state power (like the climate change protests). Protests against the Vietnam War appeared to have had no effect on the course of the war. Ditto for Iraq. Occupy Wall St did nothing. I’m happy to be proven wrong on this if anyone has instances of the opposite being true. Voting, at least for the current parties, will hardly make a difference.

Quite depressing!

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  John Lilburne

By taking control of your lives and going out as you normally would. Barring ‘social distancing’ shit, there isn’t much you can’t do.

Jonathan Castro
Jonathan Castro
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

I don’t bother with social distancing either

ianp
ianp
24 days ago

As I said, not a crime if you don’t get caught… Oh but then fear coma snitches will video you…

Yes, but oh look at that : death rate is decreasing, evidence released to prove the science was wrong ( not released to anyone with half a brain, it’s been there all along).

So… What are the lockdownistas argument for extending now, hmm??

Carlo
Carlo
23 days ago
Reply to  ianp

Did you hear what happened to the snitchers in Missouri??

wryobserver
24 days ago

I have little doubt that the lockdown protected the NHS from being overwhelmed, but the current focus on testing and vaccine development is I think misguided – at least in part. If SARS-COV-2 infection can be prevented from developing into Covid-19 then the risk from, and public perception, of it will diminish substantially. Indeed one could argue that then a lockdown would clearly be unnecessary; there’s not one for norovirus because although it’s highly infectious and not very nice it rarely kills people. But Covid-19 is a killer. Can it be prevented or mitigated? Probably yes – with early testing of oxygen levels and blood iron, and then with aggressive treatment to stop the cytokine storm. Almost nothing has appeared from government or its advisors on treating the condition, other than to record that a huge proportion of people who go onto ventilators will die. Suppose they didn’t? Problem solved. So that’s what they should focus on. For more details and an analogy with HIV see my blog at https://bamjiinrye.wordpress.com.

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
24 days ago
Reply to  wryobserver

Surely chucking all the frail elderly people out of the hospitals so they could die from lack of appropriate care is what protected the NHS from being overwhelmed?

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  Cheezilla

This . PROTECT THE NHS …..
FROM OLD PEOPLE!

Gracie Knoll
Gracie Knoll
24 days ago
Reply to  wryobserver

Absolutely and totally agree that the emphasis should be not on preventing infection, but on preventing avoidable death from infection using what we already know and have.

Preventing infection is pretty well impossible, as many scientists have said. You can slow things down to prevent healthcare overwhelm but that’s about it.

Most of us get infected with all sorts of stuff like colds (coronaviruses!) and flu bugs every year. And without the shrieking MSM hysteria we’ve got now, we just carry on as normal. Many don’t get symptoms, some are a bit poorly, still less are very ill for a fortnight then recover on their own, even less are bad enough to be hospitalised, and about 0.1% die. Exactly like Covid19.

We don’t worry about GETTING INFECTED because we all know colds and flu are unlikely to kill us if we’re generally healthy.

And we shouldn’t worry about getting infected with Covid if we have some effective treatments to help our immune systems deactivate it without going into overdrive and causing a cytokine storm.

Most of this stuff is simple. Diet. Sunlight. Weight loss. Vitamin D. Vitamin C at megadose. Simple oral drugs like hydroxychloroquine (not forgetting the zinc!) where safe to use.

As I’ve said elsewhere I’d even welcome a NEW oral drug or drug cocktail from the Pharma boys if was used on an as-needed basis with appropriate risk/benefit assessment.

EVERYTHING we see from government is about the damn vaccine! It’s Pharma’s wet dream; forced imposition of their product upon the whole world. Fine unless we wait for proper testing (18 months to never) and the country crashes and starves, or we don’t wait and let ourselves become guinea pigs for an untrusted product; most likely death and maiming on a scale unmatched by the virus.

The narrative has to be changed by any doctors and scientists willing to speak out.

Gracie Knoll
Gracie Knoll
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

Erratum: untested product

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

I would bet that a lot of countries are spinning the same shit about a ‘vaccine’ so he has to. Therefore just go out there and prove that you don’t need or want one by living life as normal.

chris c
chris c
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

Of course the vaccine might just be distilled water sold at a very high price.

Mark
Mark
24 days ago

“Jeremy Corbyn, for instance, tweeted: “There should be no return to work until it is safe to do so. If work cannot be done safely, it should not proceed. People must come before private profit.” The idea, obviously, is to get it on record that they think Boris is making a dreadful mistake so if the death toll starts to rise they can pin that on him.”

So Corbyn is either so stupid and ignorant that he actually thinks a disease broadly comparable to flu should be treated as if it is a major workplace safety hazard, or he’s so cynical he’s prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and lives.

I’ve never been a fan of Corbyn, but I’ve never been one of his more virulent critics either. I much preferred him to the Blairite alternatives in the Labour Party. But here he goes some way towards reassuring me that despite Johnson having failed the test as PM, the alternative was at least no better and probably much worse. Can anyone believe that Corbyn would not have plunged into the lockdown catastrophe with real eagerness, rather than Johnson’s bungling cowardice, had he been in office?

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  Mark

Oh Jez would have done exactly the same thing, no doubt. He’s prob busom buddies with Fergy to be fair. Tories may be more capable at getting us out quicker though, I have to concede, even if they’re more concerned with arse covering atm

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

They have to maintain international relations so treading slowly and carefully.

Your rage at the disinformation from msm must rise though.

It’s all now a game, how long we remain on the mouse wheel is up to us

ianp
ianp
24 days ago

Boris is on our side. There, I said it.

Everything that is now coming out is coded in such a way to drive sensible people up the wall. Unless you read between the lines and understand it as a call to action.

The MSM are the ones who are responsible for perpetuating fear porn, as are a number of other countries.

But note the sly increase in the number of articles coming out that support facts that we have known all along, and even one piece that understands that controlling the ‘virus’ is controlling the Fear. Maybe some of them are now scuttling for their lives when the truth comes out. It can’t not because it’s out there in plain sight, always has been.

He wants the country to ignore all of this new normal crap but can’t come out and directly say it as he’s penned in by the likes of BBC and quelle surprise, lockdownforeveristas like the guardian.

Victoria
Victoria
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

Not my view. If he was such a great leader/strategist he would have had a plan to deal with these interferences in a better way at this stage. His first fatal mistake was to allow the fear message to indoctrinate the nation, second fatal mistake was to follow the ‘science’ (turns out to be massively unrealistic and unreliable).

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Victoria

He is. Absolutely. He was backed into a corner by MSM and virtually the entire world on lockdown.

He is giving everyone a way out. To decide for yourselves. Take it.

BecJT
BecJT
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

Whether by accident or design, I agree they are polliticking the hell out of it now, and rather cleverly, I half sort of think the confusing briefings are part of it too – meet your friends at a safe distance, meet one friend, etc. Key thing is it cannot be policed and it cannot be enforced. And despite the bluster from police chiefs, they don’t want to enforce it either. So in effect, do what you want because no one’s going to stop you is the message.

Karen
Karen
24 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

I sincerely hope they don’t want to enforce it, but rememebr it was a police chief who wanted to search shopping trolleys for “non-essential” items. And police chiefs were oh so happy with the draconian powers they were given, and used them well beyond what the legislation actually enabled. Can we trust that they would change round so quickly to wanting to do their jobs and guard against real crimes rather than have the pleasure of being stasi all day?

BecJT
BecJT
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

It was hugely, hugely popular too, I don’t give him too much credit, he smelled catnip and couldn’t resist. International pressure was huge also. I do think they are now looking to box in Labour, and will probably succeed.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Victoria

Who has spread the fear and refused to do any proper investigative journalism… IE. 5 minutes on the web?

Gracie Knoll
Gracie Knoll
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

I admire your optimism, ianp.

Perhaps you’re right. I still think that BBC employees and presenters, and newspaper journalists, should start thinking about what’s coming down the tube in terms of their own lives. I think they must be even denser than the rest of the population; quite an achievement.

Nobody will be able to afford a TV licence. Buying a newspaper will be the last thing on anyone’s mind. There will be a state-sponsored propaganda outfit and if you work for it, you’ll toe the line or be imprisoned. Presenters’ and journalists’ children’s and grandchildren’s futures will be thrown under a bus.

“What did you do in the Great Lockdown, Grandad?”

“Well, Johnny, I helped to spread all the fear and panic that continued the lockdown, broke the economy and the NHS, killed more people than the virus, and ushered in the totalitarian police state you’re now living in. Now pass me my bowl of gruel, will you?”

KH1485
KH1485
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

And won’t that bit of schadenfreude be satisifying. I nearly blew a gasket when I heard Iain Dale suggest yesterday that people ought to be responsible for their own lives, as though business owners/workers prohibited from working should have factored in pandemics and the resultant gov’t balls-up into their financial forecasting. When the advertising revenues dry up and the Beeb start feeling the pinch of all those people not renewing their licences, perhaps then the ever-so-emoting (but couldn’t give a damn) newsreaders will understand our anger.

Mark
Mark
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

Not buying it.

This requires too many implausible assumptions to be credible. It’s always so convenient when you postulate that a leader has not quite enough power to be able to do those nice things you claim he really wants to do but daren’t, but on the other hand he is so incredibly cunning that all the seeming setbacks, betrayals and acts of gross incompetence are just traps and mechanisms he has set in place to win through against all the dark powers. Just have faith in the Leader and all will be well in the end.

All too often in the end those who have fallen for this kind of argument (which I’ve seen quite a few times before in other contexts) just end up waiting for a great reveal that never comes. Then their leader is replaced by a new one and the cycle begins again, from a worse place.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Mark

Maybe so… But after 2 months of utter horror and pessimism, the only way out of this for we the people, is to simply get out there and live your life. Basically, that’s what he was saying.

There won’t be tightening of restrictions due to the ‘ virus’, am almost totally sure of that.

People won’t accept it.

Gracie Knoll
Gracie Knoll
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

People are still accepting the first lot of restrictions; why would they refuse more?

BecJT
BecJT
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

The KEY is it can’t be policed. Think about it. Drive where you want. Hang around places. Meet people. Spend as much time outside as you want. Go to work. What reason does a police officer have to stop you? None. So there’ll be two groups, the terrified, tiptoeing around, and the rest of us, knowing we can have some reason for doing pretty much anything right now, and no one can stop us. How can the police pull you over and ask where you are going? How can they move you on? How can they tell you can’t go to work? Or go there? How are they even going to check that who you are with are not in your household? You just say they are. However we got here, I agree with Ian’s analysis that BJ was saying that we have to tell him that we’ve unlocked ourselves. I also think the plan was always herd immunity (it was a very leaky lockdown) and remains so now. It also shafts Labour, the road map was littered with the utter armageddon this is visiting on the poor and how we can’t do it forever. What’s Labour’s move now? They’ll bleat about PPE for a bit, and safe working, but how are they going to argue it? Just seen Kier on the telly, he looks like a man with trapped wind.

BecJT
BecJT
24 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

Plus as Toby says, R won’t go up. So if R doesn’t go up, it’s over. It’s over anyway I think, bar the shouting.

Mark
Mark
24 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

No, the unenforceability is a bit of a red herring here. It’s true that it’s now harder for it to be policed in terms of people just going out for a walk or driving around, but it still leaves all kinds of opportunities for harassment, and it still leaves our movements open to peremptory question by any police officer who feels inclined to do so. It’s no good being “permitted” to go out for unlimited exercise if a neighbour snitches on you for dropping in at a friend’s for a cup of tea, for instance.

And all this attempt to let it down slowly is aimed at saving the careers of a few responsible politicians, at the cost of leaving the precedent in place for future governments to lock us down any time they can whip up another hysteria.

Any result but an apology is a disaster, full stop, and Johnson’s sorry career is not something that is worth that price, even if you choose for some reason to let him off the hook, as ianp seeks to do.

BecJT
BecJT
24 days ago
Reply to  Mark

I’d agree with your second point, and I absolutely one hundred percent agree that our end game is that, an apology and some legal mechanism for it never, ever, ever happening again. I also agree he’s saving his own skin, and trying to remain popular, but I really do think the political chess game idea has some merit. The tories are ruthless and pragmatic, the back bench and donor pressure must be huge now, plus from think tanks, certain newspapers etc. I think Boris is a mendacious pillock, but he’s not stupid. Plus they do need to out flank Labour, the opposition are as much of a disgrace.

I disagree on policing, police must know it’s wrecking community relations, every major police chief tweeted yesterday that their role in enforcing this is over (ignore the bluster, I think they no more want to police it than the government want them to – trigger happy officers aside, I’m talking senior, sensible cops).

I’m with Ian in that we – us sceptics, the sane lot – have an opportunity to push back. And just get on with it. What are people honestly going to do, do you really think people would be so confident in real life to front up to a challenge? They might tut, they’re not going to wrestle us to the ground. I think we need to push home our advantage and I think it’ll soon be no longer socially acceptable to snitch, much harder also, comings and goings will increase, people are going ‘back to work’. I read Ian’s long post of this morning on yesterday’s post, I think maybe how we arrived here wasn’t cunning, but blatant playing to the gallery, but I do think they are trying to get out of that corner they are painted into by being deliberately vague.

Mark
Mark
24 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

“I think they no more want to police it than the government want them to – trigger happy officers aside, I’m talking senior, sensible cops).”

I think we’ve established that there are few if any senior cops immune to either this delusion or the temptation of this kind of power. It was a Chief Constable (of Northamptonshire) who thought it was sensible to threaten to check people’s shopping trolleys, and operations like the Met police’s thuggish park clearance the other day or the use of drones to harass countryside walkers early on would absolutely have been specifically authorised at the top level. These are not people who can be expected to help us here at all.

“we – us sceptics, the sane lot – have an opportunity to push back. And just get on with it.”

I don’t have a problem with that aspect at all. I just don’t believe the fairy story about noble Boris fighting our corner secretly, against terrible odds.

If he were really at all what his public image, and perhaps his self image, makes him out to be, he would have gone down fighting tooth and nail against the devastating unBritish and profoundly unTory lockdown in mid-March, whatever the odds.

And if he’d lost, what would the cost have been? We’d have got a lockdown as we did anyway. And he would have gotten to start preparing his script for “Boris Johnson – the wilderness years” while waiting for truth to catch up with whoever was now in charge. Because at least he would have been on the side of truth and reality.

BecJT
BecJT
24 days ago
Reply to  Mark

I don’t for a second think he’s noble, or honest, I do think he’s quite cunning. I’d agree they’ve made a total hash of it, but now they have, and know they have, they are frantically trying to get out. Plus he didn’t magic up a sixty page document, that took weeks and a team. I think they’ve war gamed it from all angles. He’s come up with a fudge that allows the public to make a decision, allows them to quietly lose control of it, puts Labour in a corner, and doesn’t go against public opinion. Lots of police chiefs warned as we locked down that it put the police in a jam (idiots aside), and they were all tweeting again last night. I totally agree that anyone of any integrity wouldn’t have done what he did, but the international pressure was immense, the media, social media (did you see Prof Dingwall on Newsnight, he’s on Nervtag? He said social media panic pretty much was the nail in the coffin). I don’t think Boris is a hero, I think he’s machiavellian, and is planning to save his own skin. But he’s given us an out, and we need to take it.

Mark
Mark
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

Except no, that’s exactly what he’s not saying. He’s saying “rejoice, serfs, big brother is lifting some of the restrictions on your permitted activities. Be careful you don’t take it too far, mind, because I’m increasing the punishments for any serfs who get carried away into thinking (as you seem to be suggesting, ianp) that they can “get out there and live their lives””.

I genuinely can’t understand the mentality of any supposed conservative who thinks this approach is somehow acceptable. At best, if what you argue is entirely correct, Johnson would have saved his own career at the expense of establishing a precedent for degrees of state control, interference and spending that would have been a hard leftist’s wet dream just a few months ago.

BecJT
BecJT
24 days ago
Reply to  Mark

What’s Labour’s move now? Did you read the Gov’s roadmap report?

Mark
Mark
24 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

Why does it matter what Labour’s move is? This isn’t a party political contest. We aren’t dealing with one party that is pro-lockdown and one that is against it, We are dealing with the PM and party that are responsible for imposing this disaster and other parties who are as bad or worse. Labour are an irrelevance for the time being, the Conservatives have a solid majority and no need to have an election for years. Now is exactly the time when a party in government can get away with unpopularity when needed, which is one reason why ianp’s questionable defence of Johnson as supposedly having done the best he could for the country in the face of impossible odds falls apart.

It gains us nothing to save Johnson’s miserable political neck, except to allow him to get away with portraying the lockdown as a grim but necessary policy that worked but we can now move on from. In the long run, that’s an utter disaster for everyone in the country except for Johnson and a few close collaborators.

Ianp’s case is a variant of a familiar one used to try to suppress unrest within a party’s core support when they are being betrayed. I’ve seen it used by Blairites, Bushites and Trumpians that I can immediately recall, and I’d bet my last pound I could bring back to mind occasions it was used against Thatcherites if I were to put my mind to it. It goes something like: “actually the Great Leader is playing 10 dimensional chess to outwit and defeat the massive forces of the Other Side ranged against him, so you guys need to support him, otherwise you’ll be helping the Other Side”. Usually it’s used over just ordinary issues of tactical politics, but in this case it’s being attempted on an issue of core national interest. There never seems to be any suggestion that the Great Leader should make a public stand on the point of principle and risk his career over it. But in this case, that’s exactly what Johnson should have done in mid-March, if ianp’s analysis of the situation were correct. His career absolutely should not take precedence over defending against the very idea of national lockdown, and he would have been a hero if he had gone down fighting.

But no, be patient, the Great Leader is on your side. Just wait and all will be well.

BecJT
BecJT
24 days ago
Reply to  Mark

Ian isn’t a Tory as far as I’m aware, as he’s said on previous posts of this ilk. And knock of the snark, this is a friendly chat board, if I need a lecture I’ll let you know.

Mark
Mark
24 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

No snark intended, but I can’t help how you read what I write.

As for ianp I know absolutely nothing about him and I don’t seek to imply that he’s necessarily a Conservative Party member. I just take him as I find him, and I find him using, as I wrote, a kind of argument that is regularly used to maintain discipline within a party and making rather persistent attempts to defend the person wholly personally responsible for this unprecedented lockdown policy. I disagree with him, and I say so.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Mark

Ok… You don’t buy the ‘masterplan’ thesis. But there are loads of players in the game, the whole world. All on lockdown

If he had not locked down at all, then those afflicted by the virus would be all too visible consequence of it – must lockdown, the idiots cried. The pressure was monumental remember

Lockdown was the defacto way.. for some reason.

UK as far as I know was one of the last of the major western European countries to go down this disastrous route. Russia was much later. But during that previous week we still had a champions League game attended, and the Cheltenham festival – load up as much as possible on any virus before turning off the lights.

They would have been carefully analysing that data from other countries

Then basically, the loosest lockdown you could have.. to encourage the spread. Incoming flights where possible, no quarantine, walk on through

This is a worldwide chess game being played.

So now compare this to the left wing lockdownistas , still hilariously calling for it to be extended.

Countries like new Zealand… With no covid deaths at all, but STILL in lockdown. Mental!

Mark
Mark
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

For whatever reason, you claim to have seen clever government reluctantly but rationally and cunningly responding to overwhelming pressure. But none of the pressures you are talking about were overwhelming to a British Prime Minister who had his party broadly behind him and does not face an election. It just doesn’t work that way. Seriously, you are talking about media and social media noise as if it’s some kind of real menace, when it isn’t. And that’s disregarding the clear evidence that it was government policy to intentionally ramp up fear in the population in order to encourage compliance with disease measures. If they had been wanting to control fear, we would have heard lots more from both the government and their media outlets downplaying the fear stuff. We didn’t.

As for foreign pressure, again, that’s not something that the government had to fold to. If you are trying to say the costs of say French action against us would have been unbearable. well first the French have their own problems and second nothing the French government could have done would have cost a fraction of what the lockdown has cost. We absolutely could have stuck to the Swedish policy if the government had had the courage to do it and to deploy its considerable opinion manipulation resources, starting with the Prime ministerial bully pulpit, to control fear and defend concepts like herd immunity, which they basically let go without even trying to defend them.

And let’s suppose you are correct and they were doomed to fail. What would be the cost of trying? Nothing, except the PM job. And if Johnson were a decent man then he would willingly have put that on the line to defend the nation against this lockdown disaster.

Let’s be clear – this lockdown should have been ANATHEMA to a Conservative Prime Minister.

I saw a PM and a government in a panic, fearing the nonsense hype about the potential consequences of this disease and terrified that they might get blamed for inaction. A government and a PM who failed in the most direct and personal failure possible – giving in to unjustified fear. And the menace of the media and social media opinionators was not that they were some kind of unstoppable political force, which they aren’t and never will be, but that too many of the top politicians such as Johnson himself were paying attention to them, and allowing themselves to be panicked.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Mark

Look, the key thing for me is that the precedent for state control was coming from every country that went into strict lockdown. Sweden was ignored or called ‘controversial’ by MSM , Lukashenko (he of those brilliant quotes) was ridiculed, Trump was ridiculed, bolsonaro of Brazil. They have all had to back down, except for Belarus, who are a military dictatorship ( we don’t want that here and would not get it)

Mark
Mark
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

You’re arguing as though “ridicule” is something by which a national leader can be compelled to sacrifice his nation’s most vital interests, as well as his political party’s most fundamental principles.

Nigel Baldwin
Nigel Baldwin
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

Why’s he/they increasing fines then for non compliance?

JohnB
JohnB
24 days ago
Reply to  Nigel Baldwin

What is there left that could be labelled ‘non compliance’ ?

Mark
Mark
23 days ago
Reply to  JohnB

Visiting someone, intentionally going within 2m (!) of anyone not in your household, working as a barber or any of the numerous barred jobs currently….

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Nigel Baldwin

Increasing fines for breaking social distance – appease the lockdownistas. But is encouraging us to get out there and speak to people. As many people as we like…. Face to 2 metre face

Finally, its only a fine if some daft plod sees you isn’t it? It ain’t a crime if you don’t get caught

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

How great it would be if you were right …

Jonathan Castro
Jonathan Castro
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

Why is he penned in? If he doesn’t want the lockdown, he should just lift it.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago

Other countries and their gradual release of lockdown, all of them still with stringent restrictions in place. You have to appease them , MSM, quivering fools still plugged into fear coma.

Those countries are starting to riot

We don’t have to. We just need to get out there and choose… influence.

And NO, am not a Tory at all, have switched voting many times. Just very logical, pragmatic, and recently quite paranoid! I will choose a side that will give us the most freedom

Jenny
Jenny
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

I’m all with you on the “choose the side that gives us the most freedom”, i just wish there was such a side. Over the course of this lockdown disaster we’ve seen every MP come out against liberty, even those with some scepticism of lockdown wouldn’t go far enough to say it was outright wrong. I would very much like to have a single issue political party i could support which works only for individual liberty, whilst all the other parties p*ss oevr liberty whenever doing so fits their real right-wing,left-wing,centrist,socialist,devolutionist,unionist,pro-business,pro-health,pro-environment,pro-tradition,…,… agendas.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Jenny

Right ok… Nevermind plotting how we got here and the blame right now.

The key is whose side of the available choices will get us back to normal and get rid of the frckin perspex, iPhone ads and God knows what.

I think that’s Boris.

And… Today, round my area. Only 1 -2 masked loons about. That’s encouraging.

That’s the easy steps and could be a clear signal to all – if you don’t have a mask on then you are not afraid and think it’s a load of bollocks, now move on.

It’s that simple.

If some prat leaps out your way out and about, well they are still plugged in.

Never ever wear a mask

Marcus
Marcus
24 days ago
Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  Marcus

Does Toby mean the big corporate chains or small local businesses? I’m a bit scared of listing smaller companies for fear that, indeed, the rozzers will descend……

Yes to Freedom
Yes to Freedom
24 days ago

Can we start thinking about starting a protest from Trafalgar Square to Downing Street?

Peter Thompson
Peter Thompson
24 days ago

Here is what the BBC ‘ s Ukraine correspondent Jonah Fischer writes with regard to Ukraine easing its lockdown
,”Ukraine has so far avoided the worst of the coronavirus outbreak. No-one’s quite sure why, but it’s probably because of the decisive early action taken by the authorities.” Obviously Jonah hasn’t looked next door at Belarus or if Belarus is not to his taste Sweden.
All the Slavic countries of Eastern Europe have been notably un touched by covid19 and the only area with a mortality that you could notice in the statistics is Moscow…population 10 million.

swedenborg
swedenborg
24 days ago
Reply to  Peter Thompson

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/does-bcg-vaccination-protect-against-acute-respiratory-infections-and-covid-19-a-rapid-review-of-current-evidence/

One thing in common for all those ex-communist countries was that all of them used BCG vaccination not only once but repeatedly in their old healthcare system. Although the link above found no direct proof it is still puzzling that the Covid-19 incidence was much lower in the former DDR in Germany

Peter Thompson
Peter Thompson
24 days ago
Reply to  swedenborg

Yes it is interesting to see how eastern Europe seemed to escape the fatalities of covid19 , though until widespread antibody testing we wont have the figures for prevalence of the virus.
BCG is a factor .
I would point out some other differences for thoughts. Hungary is one of the eastern spared nations although its population is certainly not slavic. All these countries have higher incidence of smokers and nicotine seems to be a protective factor . it should be noted that they have a much lower number of BAME citizens as well and it would seem that cities where BAME are large minorities eg Paris, London, Birmingham, New York seem to have been badly effected ? vit D .

Mark
Mark
24 days ago
Reply to  Peter Thompson

Perhaps it could be as simple as they are not particularly looking for it, or overdiagnosing it in deaths as we do, so it isn’t particularly showing up? Combined with generally lower incidence due to the factors you mention.

Moscow is interesting and the big metropolises do seem to get hit hard.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Peter Thompson

Seriously, can you imagine stating that nicotine is an antiviral!! I kind of knew this based upon some studies out there. The fearful masses would be lighting up like crazy.

No one wants that, but the gibbering fools would do it, despite the known long term health risks!

As an ex smoker and vaper myself, the last thing I want is a toilet roll style run on vape juice…

Carrie
Carrie
23 days ago
Reply to  Peter Thompson

Watch this Peter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imrLwM97i0k A mathematician illustrates how, bizarrely (given that a virus has no ‘brain’ of its own and therefore and does not know where in the world it is), the virus deaths are far higher in locations near to seats of power, whereas in the rest of the world there have been far lower infection and death rates. He also shows how the statistics are being manipulated in those places: as soon as the infection and death rates start to clearly drop off (ie when the virus is therefore clearly on the way out), the statistics are then being fudged by politicians in order to keep the rates high and thereby avoid having to lift lockdown..

scepticalsue
scepticalsue
24 days ago

I’m not sure what I expected from Boris Johnson yesterday but it’s clear that our path out of this self imposed madness is going to be slow and tedious. Thanks in part to the shameful mainstream media terrorising people into being genuinely afraid to leave their homes, we are on course to have one of the longest economic shutdowns in modern history, as well as restrictions upon our civil liberties that have never been seen before in this country.
As I think back to early March, and Johnson’s comments on how herd immunity was the way forward, shortly followed by widespread outrage by the general public (I’ve been shocked and saddened by the hysteria I’ve seen on social media, including from people I thought were sensible and level headed), I’m genuinely pondering one question – are we the only country that demanded to be forcibly locked down by our government rather than the other way round?

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  scepticalsue

Basically yes. Apart from some states in the US.

Victoria
Victoria
24 days ago
Reply to  scepticalsue

Yes the MSM stoked up hysteria but Johnson and his team with access to spin doctors and PR companies failed spectacularly to get more balanced messages out. To make matters worse they then adopted the highly ‘successful’ (fear mongering) slogan using all types of media 24 hours per day. They waited until yesterday to tone the message down. Much too late.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Victoria

Hmmm, again I think that might be deliberate. The aim was to get this all over with as soon as possible. In the long run it was always the right strategy.

We won’t get a ‘2nd wave’, and this R number will never increase. I am sure of it

Now it’s our job to bring people out of their fear coma

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Victoria

I think the strategy always had to be that virus just had to run its course, burn its way through and die out. Govt did switch to lockdown due to media pressure, and then maintained its message. It has ALWAYS talked about R number not cases.

Did they simply know that MSM would run fear porn 24 7? Which of course they have gleefully done. And subsequently now gone on about cases, and deaths ‘with’ covid.

I would simply wonder why MSM haven’t simply spoken to a few people who had it and recovered. Feels like wilful ignorance. Which will be a monumental mistake from them… As some beginning to realise

Gracie Knoll
Gracie Knoll
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

Yup. Piers Morgan and Neil Ferguson will have to escape to a desert island together.

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

Ferguson may have been a patsy, he has a perfect track record of wildly pessimistic predictions which govt would have been well aware of.

Oh and here is a very interesting stat for you:

How many people on average die in England every year….?

Answer = 500000

Where have we heard that number before, hmmm?

Coincidence?

Nick
Nick
24 days ago
Reply to  ianp

Sorry what is the significance of that?

ianp
ianp
24 days ago
Reply to  Nick

That was his prediction for the number of people to die of covid…

So, in 12 months time it will be shown to have not have caused any deaths at all.

Woh… I don’t know if I like what I am suggesting here.

JohnB
JohnB
24 days ago
Reply to  Gracie Knoll

The silver lining …

Tony Rattray
Tony Rattray
24 days ago

There is a stand out paragraph for me in the latest uk government plan:

“A more differentiated approach to risk

As the UK moves into phase two, the Government will continue to recognise that not everybody’s or every group’s risk is the same; the level of threat posed by the virus varies across the population, in ways the Government currently only partly understands.”

Question – how did the government / sage not fully understand this to start with? Was it not obvious that the old and individuals with underlying health problems where always going to be those most at risk / making up the vast majority of those individuals that have sadly died to date? Hence, by simple deduction, care homes should have been focused on from the start for ppe, tests, etc., but where not.

Conclusion – sage has been incompetent based upon simplistic and worst case scenario modelling.

Question – if a mere simpleton like me can work out where the real risk was going to be, why was a differentiated approach not adopted to start with (in other words, proportional risk management)? Hence there would have been an early focus and action within care homes with ppe and testing and tracing. The focus of the last 10 weeks being to protect the most vulnerable (crudely speaking, lockdown for approx 10% of the population with measures to support) with, for example, the vast majority of citizens instead reaching a voluntary consensus with the state (its called democracy) – eg. distancing measures, self-isolation for individuals with symptoms, not going round shaking everybody’s hand, etc.

Conclusion – our current crop of politicians lacked the spine or leadership to do otherwise (hid behind modelling dressed up as ‘the science”) with simplistic and worse case scenario modelling of the virus by sage (fuelled by social media, etc) overriding common sense.

However, on a much more positive note, the report also states the following:

“I know the current arrangements do not provide an enduring solution – the price is too heavy, to our national way of life, to our society, to our economy, indeed to our long-term public health. And while it has been vital to arrest the spread of the virus, we know it has taken a heavy toll on society.”

Wake up nicola sturgeon et al! But don’t worry, you will once the state holiday pay ends! The scottish economy will be hit even harder than england with its greater employment in the public sector, heavier reliance on tourism and with oil and gas employment already being on its knees.

Oaks79
Oaks79
24 days ago
Reply to  Tony Rattray

Yep all they had to do was look at the data coming from Italy to see what was needed to be done. I think pretty much most on this site could see it.

Victoria
Victoria
24 days ago
Reply to  Tony Rattray

Indeed. If SAGE are so smart, how did they miss it or ….?

Farinances
Farinances
24 days ago
Reply to  Tony Rattray

She doesn’t care. After all, English tax dollar will prop her up. Lol its like Scotland has been furloughed.

BecJT
BecJT
24 days ago
Reply to  Tony Rattray

I thought the stuff about economic and social toll in that report, was really the point of it, and it puts pressure back on Labour to justify lockdown’s continuation (because let’s be frank, they’ve done nothing to fiddle whilst Rome burns, picking at how to do a terrible, nonsensical strategy better). My work niche is the social and health outcomes of deprivation and inequality, and I think it’s telling it was so emphasised. I totally agree with your analysis by the way, I’m so sad about what we’ve done to our oldies, and then we all hypocritically went and ‘celebrated’ VE on the Friday after clapping the NHS (that did it to them!) on the Thursday.

Lilly
Lilly
24 days ago
Reply to  Tony Rattray

You always make a worst case scenario, but you only use it to judge how much budget you might need and how big to make your reserves of resources. You don’t, unless you’re as insane as our government and mainstream media have been, base all your immediate actions on that worst case.

Sceptic
Sceptic
24 days ago

Thanks Toby another fantastic blog and thanks also for the bonus reads.

On the subject of antibody tests and the origin of the virus, a joint US and Chinese study (journal of Cellular & Molecular Immunobiology) have found that Covid-19 targets and destroys our immune system eg our T cells – just like HIV.

Prof. Luc Montagnier, who discovered HIV said that Covid19 has HIV sequences that can only have been inserted in a laboratory. According to the new research, the normally dominant T cell becomes prey to the coronavirus, and is deactivated from protecting the body – a step up from the SARS virus that could not penetrate the T cell. The difference is that unlike HIV, Covid 19 does not replicate.

This is sounding more like a Frankenstein virus every day.

Here is the article about the research:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200413/Novel-coronavirus-attacks-and-destroys-T-cells-just-like-HIV.aspx

Visual of Cytotoxic T cells and how they work : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntk8XsxVDi0&feature=youtu.be

Prof Montagnier: http://thejewishvoice.com/2020/04/2008-nobel-prize-for-medicine-winning-dr-luc-montagnier-says-covid-19-was-manipulated-for-hiv-research/

swedenborg
swedenborg
24 days ago
Reply to  Sceptic

Thanks for the link. Dr Fauci’s role in this is suspicious. He has tried to have an HIV vaccine for 40 years. His role with Robert Gallo trying to “steal” the discovery of HIV from the French team was a disgrace. It seems that a Law in the US 1980 permitted federal employed scientists to claim patent for discoveries instead of the patent belonging to the US government. This has led the Big Pharma to increase the influence enormously especially for patent of new vaccines. But better not continue as some blog commentators think this is a conspiracy theory and BBC, youtube, Facebook don’t want us to talk about it.

Sceptic
Sceptic
24 days ago