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The Mirror leads with the preprint I flagged up yesterday estimating that by the end of April 29% of the UK population may have already had the virus (29% of 66 million is ~19 million). If we assume that roughly 50,000 people in the UK will have died from COVID-19 by May 21st – allowing for the three-week lag time between infection and death – that gives an infection fatality rate (IFR) of ~0.076%, less than half the IFR of seasonal flu.

Is a seroprevalence of 29% high enough for herd immunity? Yes, according to a summary of the evidence by Nicholas Lewis about the threshold that needs to be reached that I flagged up a few days ago. According to Lewis, the variation in COVID-19 susceptibility and infectivity between individuals, arising mainly from differences in their social connectivity, lowers the herd immunity threshold to 7% – 24% of the population, much lower than the 50% – 60% previously thought. His analysis draws on a recent preprint by Gomes et al entitled ‘Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold‘.

New data from London suggests the city has already obtained herd immunity. According to the latest estimates by Public Health England (PHE) and Cambridge University, as reported in the Telegraph, only 24 people a day are being infected in the capital and the R has fallen to 0.4. That means the number of new infections is halving every 3.5 days and London will have virtually eliminated the virus by the end of the month. It is Yorkshire and the North East that have the highest infection rate, according to the PHE/Cambridge analysis – double that of the capital. It’s ironic, then, that the local authorities in those areas are so paranoid about day-trippers from London infecting their populations that they’ve banned parking at local beauty spots. Turns out, it’s Londoners who should be worried about visitors from Yorkshire and the North East, not the other way round.

Picture taken on the tube in London this morning. The commuters seem more worried about dying from putting on their trousers than from COVID-19 – and the risk may actually be greater, given that London is almost virus-free and eight people died while trying to put on their trousers last year.

But it’s not all good news. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the second wave of the pandemic will be deadlier than the first. The Telegraph has interviewed Dr Hans Kluge, Director for the WHO European region, who delivered a stark warning to countries beginning to ease their lockdowns, saying that now is the “time for preparation, not celebration”. File this under the same heading as the WHO’s January 14th announcement that there’s “no clear evidence of human to human transmission”.

My Lockdown Sceptic of the week is Luke Johnson, former chairman of Pizza Express and Channel 4, who was on Question Time last night. He dared to suggest the lockdown will cause a greater loss of life that it will prevent and duly reaped the whirlwind. One of the points he made is that if you’re under 60 with no underlying health conditions you’re more likely to drown than die of COVID-19. You can watch Johnson firing off truth bullets here.

I was sent a terrific piece this morning by an occupational health doctor about the catastrophic consequences for the British economy of treating COVID-19 as a workplace health hazard, similar to asbestos. He rightly points out that there’s no scientific evidence that workplaces are more hazardous environments than any other environments when it comes to susceptibility to the virus. But over time, the risk of catching the virus has morphed from a hazard that exists in the general community to a hazard that’s specific to the workplace. This is a consequence, in part, of the Government telling people to stay in their homes to avoid infection. But it may also be related to the widespread belief that “key workers” are at greater risk of infection than others because they’re still at work – actual “fake news” and “misinformation” that’s pumped out by the mainstream media daily. And, of course, the Government’s unscientific gobbledegook about the need to maintain a distance of two metres apart in offices has undoubtedly played a part. The author points out that this will create a mountain of obstacles that businesses wanting to reopen will have to overcome if they’re to persuade people to return to work.

“You must put in place universal distancing and cleaning measures throughout every part of your operation,” he says. “You must issue PPE, with all of the regulations surrounding the provision of PPE. You must screen every employee with an underlying medical condition to determine if they are safe to even enter the workplace.”

That last task, in particularly, will saddle businesses with enormous extra costs:

Every single employee, returning to almost any workplace in the country, now needs to be risk assessed to characterise the risk to their safety. For many, this will be a quick process. But for many others with common, chronic health conditions (who will number several millions nationally), it will require significant resource to undertake assessments. As there is little guidance available and given the fear of a backlash from the media, unions, lawyers or the authorities, many employers will feel forced into excluding workers, even where there is little evidence that this is necessary. Employees may feel forced back in fear of their lives, whilst others will not be allowed back despite being desperate for a return to normality.

I have to confess, I hadn’t thought through to the consequences of branding the workplace a hazardous environment. But this occupational health doctor has and it’s clearly going to be a massive problem. Do read the whole piece.

The Government wrote to Simon Dolan’s layers yesterday, responding to his Letter Before Action. This is the update on his Crowdfunding page:

Just a few hours ago we received a detailed response form the Govt to our letter before action. Our legal team are currently considering the various points raised. The letter runs to some 13 pages and as you can imagine contains some highly technical points. We can confirm for now that they are however refusing to release the minutes of the SAGE meetings.

Will update further just as soon as the legal team have formulated their plan of action. rest assured, the fight very much continues. Expect another update in the next couple of days.

If you want to find out more about Dolan and what’s motivating him, I recommend this interview by my friend James Delingpole for the Delingpod. And I’ve published a piece today by John Waters, one of the two anti-lockdown litigants trying to take take the Irish Government to court. You can read that here.

More depressing polling news: A recent five-country survey by Kekst CNC found that British voters top the table in wanting their government’s top priority to be limiting the spread of the virus (73%) rather than avoiding recession (14%) That net 59-point “lead” for tackling the virus compares with net figures of 44 points (Japan), 30 points (US), 16 points (Germany) and 15 points (Sweden). Prospect has more.

A reader tells me about the difficulties he’s had trying to see a dentist:

Like many of a certain generation I have had the pleasure of getting to visit my dentist regularly and we are on first name terms. Once I experience toothache I usually phone up for an appointment and hope to get away with a filling but have on occasion had to suffer the expense and pain of a deep root canal filling. Since the middle of March the doors of every dental surgery have been firmly closed in the UK and the only treatment available is from emergency dental hubs. These dental hubs can offer you a choice of either antibiotics and pain killers and if that doesn’t work an extraction of the painful tooth.

I did write to my dentist at the beginning of April, initially by email, which wasn’t replied to, then by a hand-written letter explaining I had a lot of pain from a tooth. I had already taken a weeks worth of antibiotics and paracetamol My dentisit kindly did phone me, had a look at some x-rays from last year and said he could refer me to a hub for it to be removed, as that was the only option.

When the dentists open possibly in July they think that they will only be doing teeth extractions anyway. All the dental work involving ” aerosols”, i.e. drilling and filling, is not allowed and will not be available for months because of the need for PPE for all staff and a total refit of dental surgeries.

We have returned to the world of dentistry in the 18th Century.

This is quite shocking. Dr Jeannette Young, the Chief Health Officer of Queensland in Australia, has told the Brisbane Times that she urged the state’s premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, to shut down schools in order to send a “message”, not because she thought it was scientifically advisable. Here are the key paragraphs:

Dr Young told Ms Palaszczuk to shut down schools on March 26th.

She says while evidence showed schools were not a high-risk environment for the spread of the virus, closing them down would help people understand the gravity of the situation.

“If you go out to the community and say, ‘this is so bad, we can’t even have schools, all schools have got to be closed’, you are really getting to people,” Dr Young says.

“So sometimes it’s more than just the science and the health, it’s about the messaging.”

I’ve long suspected that senior civil servants think they know better than democratically-elected politicians and have no qualms about misrepresenting scientific or legal advice in order to manipulate them. But they don’t often brag about it in national newspapers, particularly not when still in post. One telling detail from the profile: Dr Young has a “no-smoking” sign displayed on her “trophy” wall, given to her by Health Minister Steven Miles after she helped to get cigarettes banned in national parks in 2017.

On the subject of schools, a reader has passed on a Facebook post complaining about the arrangements that have been made at Holywell Village First School in Whitley Bay to facilitate its reopening on June 1st. These apply to children in Reception and Year 1, i.e. aged four to six:

  • Children to be isolated in bubbles of small groups
  • To remain with one teacher in one classroom all day
  • All toys, books and soft furnishings removed
  • Children to work at desks 1m apart, all to face the same direction, and not mix, INCLUDING NURSERY!
  • Desks etc to be continually cleaned throughout the day
  • To be seated at desks all day. No sitting on the floor
  • Children only to attend in clean clothes and a clean coat every day
  • No hot lunch for Reception and Year 1, packed lunches to be provided by the school
  • No outdoor equipment to be touched
  • They will have to spend much of the day working independently (the teacher cannot help them)
  • Set toilet times
  • Toileting accidents – children to clean themselves up; if they can’t then the parent has to come and collect the child to clean them at home

As my correspondent says, “The psychological scars this will leave beggar belief.” The headteacher of Holywell Village First School would do well to read this piece by Rachel de Souza, chief executive of Inspiration Trust, or indeed this article that I’ve been sent by Christine Brett, a health economist, and which I’ve published today. Christine has crunched the numbers and concluded that the chances of your child dying from the virus, or infecting others, are extremely slight. To date, one child has died from coronavirus per 1.1 million children in the UK (12 in total). But even though the risk is negligible, Christine is far from cavalier about it. As she says in her piece, her own son Michael died at the age of 19 months:

In the interests of full disclosure, I fully understand the anxiety parents feel about their children. My first son was born with a congenital heart condition and spent the first ten days of his life on the cardiac intensive care unit at Great Ormond Street Hospital. He underwent eight hours of open-heart surgery at three days old. He had his oxygen levels, and weight monitored weekly. He was rushed back into the hospital after having his first set of vaccines. Ultimately, my husband and I decided that since he had survived, we wanted him to live. Yes, I was nervous being around people with a cold, but I wheeled him down the street choked with traffic fumes to take him to baby groups – yoga, massage, singing. We travelled on trains, buses and even planes to visit friends and family.

He died at 19 weeks – the post-mortem showed evidence of cytomegalovirus (CMV) is his lungs. CMV is a common virus that is usually harmless. Most people don’t know they have CMV because it rarely causes problems in healthy people. However, for people with weakened immune systems, it is a cause for concern. For Matthew’s delicately balanced circulation, it was fatal. I always knew he didn’t have a long life ahead with his condition, but he lived a short, fun-filled life

Christine’s article, which is very sober and sensible, is well worth a read.

Someone has sent me an interesting piece published in the New Scientist in 2007 saying the cause of the foot and mouth epidemic was a virus escaping from leaky pipe at a Government research lab in Pirbright, Surrey. Perhaps the theory that SARS-CoV-2 escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology isn’t that far-fetched after all.

The New York Times has an article attempting to smear all lockdown sceptics as far-right loons and conspiracy theorists, focusing on the dissemination of the Stanford Santa Clara serological study by right-wing commentators on Twitter. That study, led by John Ioannidis, Professor of Medicine at Stanford, seemed to show that public health organisations, such as the WHO, had under-estimated the seroprevalence of the virus and, as a consequence, over-estimated the infection fatality rate (IFR). According to the Times, the signal boost the study received from wing-nuts on Twitter led to “a surge of misinformation”. “By the end of the weekend, right-wing social media had passed around the study, often with hashtags like #ReopenAmerica, #FactsNotFear, #endthelockdown and #BackToWork slapped on,” writes the Times.

Trouble is, the estimate of the IFR in that preprint – 0.17% – has turned out to be more accurate than official estimates. If you look at this Excel spreadsheet collating the data from some of the major PCR and serological studies that have been done so far, the median IFR is 0.36. Admittedly, more than double 0.17, but bear in mind that was an estimate of the IFR in Santa Clara county. And an IFR of 0.36 is just over a third of the estimate used in the Imperial College computer model, which was 0.9%.

So which figure should be classed as “misinformation”? The one produced by Professor Ioannidis and his team at Stanford or the one produced by Professor Ferguson and his team at Imperial? I’m willing to bet my house that when the IFR of SARS-CoV-2 is a settled figure, it will be closer to 0.17% than 0.9%.

The Times concludes it’s analysis by saying that there are two internets, one interested in scientific evidence and governed by reason, the other a Wild West dominated by right-wing conspiracy theorists:

What this cascade of sharing behaviour reveals, based on our analysis of nearly 900 COVID-19 preprints, is a tale of two internets: one largely ideological, in which science is leveraged as propaganda, and one that consists of the kind of discussion and debate vital for academia — and democracy.

That’s kind of true, but the authors of the article – Aleszu Bajak and Jeff Howe – have got it backwards: it’s mainstream media organisations like the New York Times and the BBC that are disseminating propaganda, with the truth about coronavirus more likely to be found in little tributaries of the internet like this one. At the foot of the piece Bajak and Howe are described as teachers of journalism at Northeastern University. Make of that what you will.

A regular contributor to this site – anonymous, but one of the best financial journalist in the country – has done a bit of analysis based on the “response tracker” that Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government has created. This is a tool that enables you to compare and contrast different countries according to what non-pharmaceutical interventions they’ve put in place in an attempt to mitigate the impact of the virus:

The Blavatnik School of Government provides an estimate of Lockdown “stringency” (100 being complete lockdown). I put the numbers for a few countries into a spreadsheet. What you find is that there is no statistical relationship between the stringency of lockdown (at the end of March) and a country’s rate of COVID-19 infections and deaths (per million of population – numbers from Our World in Data). There is, as you would expect, a stronger statistical relationship between the degree of stringency and projected fiscal deficits (estimated by the IMF, and already massively understating the problem).

Never have some many sacrificed so much for so little…

In Austria, a new organisation called “Initiative for evidence-based information on the coronavirus” (ICI) has been created by a controversial doctor called Dr. Christian Fiala. (He has written papers in the past disputing that AIDS is a killer virus.) It’s an anti-lockdown organisation that describes itself as an “independent initiative” but, unlike Widerstand 2020 Deutschland, ICI has no ambition to become a political party. It says on the site that it isn’t affiliated to any existing party and rejects any form of political extremism. It helps to organise anti-lockdown demonstrations and offers pro-bono legal support to people who’ve been prosecuted for participating in protests or fined for breaking the quarantine. The website publishes an endless stream of academic papers contradicting what the site refers to as “prevailing corona-alarmist orthodoxies” – a bit like this one! The site claims ICI has three objectives:

  • Facts instead of panic
  • Back to basic rights
  • Back to pluralistic discussion

One of ICI’s campaigns urges Austrians to wear face masks with the words “mund-tot” on them, which translates as “mouth-dead” or “silenced”:

ICI organised a protest in Vienna outside the Austrian Chancellory yesterday. It was forbidden by the police, but people gathered anyway. If you click here, you’ll see pictures from it. The text at the top of that page translates as: “We’re not left-wing, we’re not right-wing – we’re angry.”

I asked my always-helpful German-speaking reader to see what had been written about the group in the Austrian press and this is his summary:

The group doesn’t seem to getting much pick up in main Austrian papers. Couldn’t find anything in the Kurier or the Kronenzeitung. The one article I found in a major paper, Der Standard, is extremely hostile. It makes no attempt to understand the ICI’s purpose or arguments, but smears it by linking it to the right-wing nationalist organisation, the Identitarian Movement Austria led by Martin Sellner. Sellner has endorsed the ICI, clearly seeking to exploit it for his own purposes. ICI organisers were none too pleased that Sellner’s followers showed up at the demo – and said as much – but felt they couldn’t do much about it. Despite this, the article portrays ICI moderates as naive, ill-informed misfits and anti-vaxxers who won’t wear masks and feel no sense of responsibility towards the old and vulnerable. It points to the apparent irony of the group’s name, given that the ICI attracts people who clearly have no understanding of or respect for evidence-based health policy.

One thing I’ve noticed about ICI and Widerstand 2020 Deutschland is that both organisations are militantly pro-free speech. I am too, of course, and helped set up an organisation called the Free Speech Union earlier this year. I imagine a belief in the importance of free speech is something nearly all lockdown sceptics have in common.

Meanwhile, in Germany, the scandal caused by the leak of an 80-page impact assessment of the lockdown by an auditor in the Ministry of the Interior continues to rumble on. I’ve found this summary by German-to-English translator Paul Charles Gregory on an anti-deep state website. I’ve asked him to translate the whole thing for me so I can publish it on this site, but haven’t heard back yet. It’s quite an undertaking.

Slovenia declared an official end to its coronavirus epidemic yesterday, becoming the first country in Europe to do so. It was among the first to ease its lockdown – on April 20th – and saw no increase in infections. Public transport resumed earlier this week while next week some pupils will return to schools. All bars and restaurants, as well as small hotels with up to 30 rooms, will also be allowed to open next week. European visitors to the country will no longer be quarantined on arrival, although visitors from other parts of the world will be. To date it has had 1,464 cases and 103 deaths.

I get a lot of emails from readers like this one:

My neighbour’s father died three weeks ago. Elderly, unwell. Tested three times for Covid, all tests came back negative.
Death Certificate, Dr. put as cause of death “Covid”.

One thing that makes me slightly sceptical about these anecdotal reports is that I don’t get what the motive is. Why would a GP misdiagnose the cause of death? In the US, hospitals doctors have a financial incentive to put “COVID0-19” on death certificates because they get tens of thousands of dollars from the federal Government for each patient who dies of COVID-19. But there’s no equivalent incentive in the UK as far as I’m aware.

I also get a lot of emails like this:

I’m a huge fan of Lockdown Sceptics. Thank you for helping to save my sanity. At times this has felt like I’ve been standing in front of a lorry which is going to run me over. I want to move out of the way, but I can’t unless unless everyone else moves out of the way. They can’t see the lorry or hear me. It’s felt nightmarish and more isolating than lockdown itself.

I’m sure many of you know exactly how this woman feels.

And on to the round-up of all the stories I’ve noticed, or which have been been brought to my attention, in the last 24 hours:

On Monday, Lockdown Sceptics launched a searchable directory of open businesses across the UK. The idea is to celebrate those retail and hospitality businesses that have reopened, as well as help people find out what has opened in their area – all the more urgent in light of the latest forecast of the Federation of Small Businesses, which says that up to a third of small businesses in Britain may close as a result of the lockdown. But we need your help to build it, so we’ve created a form you can fill out to tell us about those small businesses that have reopened near you. Should be fairly self-explanatory – and the owners of small businesses are welcome to enter their own details. Please visit the page and let us know about those brave folk who are doing their bit to get our country back on its feet.

Some more suggestions for theme songs from readers, with a heavy metal theme today: “What’s Another Year?” by Johnny Logan, “Wake Me Up When September Ends” by Green Day and “Don’t Box Me In” by Stan Ridgway and Stewart Copeland.

Thanks as always to those of you who made a donation in the last 24 hours to pay for the upkeep of this site. It’s a daunting task, as I say in my latest Spectator column. If you feel like donating, you can do so by clicking here. And if you want to flag up any stories or links I should include in tomorrow’s update, email me here.

If you want a laugh, this Kevin James video is very funny. Stay with it – you’ll get the point.

And finally, I participated in quite a high-level discussion on Tuesday courtesy of How the Light Gets In, a philosophy festival that takes place in Hay-on-Wye each spring, but which has gone virtual for this year. One of the other panelists was fellow sceptic Michael Levitt, Professor of Structural Biology at Stanford and winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize for Chemistry. These things are often quite adversarial but this one wasn’t. Worth a watch.

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LGDTLK
LGDTLK
20 days ago

Thanks as ever Toby. A sane voice in an ocean of insanity. My tweet of the day appeared in a cricketing thread discussing England cricketer’s restarting training and ECB chief Ashley Giles stating the player’ training environments would be safervthan being in the supermarket. I’ve yet to decide whether this was a spoof!

“I certainly hope so. Going to Sainsbury’s is a bleeding death run. Everyone under 25 thinks Covid-19 does not apply to them and totally ignore the 2-metre rule. Then there are the old farts, who simply don’t care coz it. I literally have to shout at folk for invading my space.”

South Coast Worker
South Coast Worker
20 days ago
Reply to  LGDTLK

Common moan is how the old people don’t adhere to any of the new rules. Could it be that they have been around long enough to know when they’re being conned. The under 25s, skew from complete indifference to being utterly petrified. I haven’t encountered any that are actively engaged in the topic one way or the other though.

Farinances
Farinances
20 days ago

This is amazing.

“Go back inside, you’re killing old people!!”
“But…. I am an old person.”
“Well then you’re KILLING ME!!”

Funny how they suddenly care about all the old people they wished dead after referendum result.

Jonathan Castro
Jonathan Castro
20 days ago
Reply to  LGDTLK

I don’t engage in social distancing. Most people (nearly all actually) move away from me like frightened little sheep.

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
20 days ago

Yes! I find it quite worrying.
I used to step into the road out of consideration but, as I think the social distancing is an unnecessary farce, I now choose not to and if it bothers them, they can jump in front of passing traffic.

paulito
paulito
20 days ago
Reply to  Cheezilla

Hello Cheezilla. Exactly. If they think that jumping in front of a speeding car is safer than a fellow human being there’s no help for them.

GetaGrip
GetaGrip
20 days ago
Reply to  LGDTLK

God how I miss getting my space invaded.

The answer is to get a dog. I have a Beagle and he clearly doesn’t give a toss whether I’m carrying Covid or not.

ianp
ianp
20 days ago
Reply to  GetaGrip

Surprised no one has said dogs have got covid. Guess that just a rung down too far for the media, as if they haven’t stoop low enough

BobUSA
BobUSA
20 days ago

Greetings from Sunny Southern California,
The mayor of Los Angeles has extended the shut down through July.
Here’s a skeptical item about the unsustainability of lockdowns in a recent Foreign Affairs that endorses the Swedish model:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=twofa&utm_campaign=Only%20Saving%20Lives%20Will%20Save%20Livelihoods&utm_content=20200515&utm_term=FA%20This%20Week%20-%20112017

JohnB
JohnB
20 days ago
Reply to  BobUSA

No chance you guys can do a Wisconsin, Bob ?

Mark
Mark
20 days ago

Administrative memo

Lessons from the 2020 Covid19 panic
Implementing neo-nudging to preserve constructive and rational discussion of policy proposals

Circulation: Dept heads, team leaders
Date: 15th May 2030

[Usage note; reference to “nudging” was widely viewed as in very poor taste in the immediate aftermath of the chaos create by the panic policies implemented during 2020 and the economic collapse, famines and unrest that followed. The term was associated with government opinion manipulation policies widely blamed for encouraging the mass delusion. However, we consider enough time has now passed since the Coventry mass trials of the perpetrators and the subsequent exemplary (and, some have argued, excessively harsh) punishments handed down, for the term to be rehabilitated in this modified form.]

Continuing the process of disseminating the results of analysis of the causative factors In the 2020 Panic and implementing procedures designed to protect against any recurrence, these guidelines set out policy discussion meeting management protocols for staff and advisory meetings, for immediate implementation.

A major factor in the 2020 failure of governments and societies to protect rational discussion from disruption by immature sentimentality was identified as the failure to robustly shut down particularly damaging, irrational but emotionally manipulative assertions and lines of argument. Accordingly, management and leadership staff are required to respond strongly and rapidly to any of the following examples whenever encountered, as specified in each case. Treating the perpetrators like children is considered an appropriate response to their failure to reason like an adult, but since the perpetrators are not actually children, the use of mild corporal punishment widely considered to be no longer acceptable with actual children, is authorised, in accordance with policy document 4258763 Reasonable Chastisement of Junior Staff.

Outburst: “you can’t put a price on human life”
Required response: ”Go stand in the corner”
Outburst: “but herd immunity is just darwinism – the survival of the fittest”
Required response: “Be quiet while the grownups are talking”
Outburst: “if it saves one life it’s worth it”
Required response: “You’ve been told!”
Outburst: “but safety is everything”
Required response: “Life isn’t safe. Grow up!”
Outburst: “you wouldn’t say that if it was your grandmother dying”
Required response: “What do you think this is, a nursery class or a policy discussion?”
Outburst: “But it’s not about fear, it’s about responsibility for the vulnerable”
Required response: “You’re not fooling anyone, you know.”
Outburst: “Won’t somebody please think of the old people!”
Required response: “Get out! And don’t come back!”

Mark
Mark
20 days ago
Reply to  Mark

A bit of light-hearted, politically incorrect science fiction….

JohnB
JohnB
20 days ago
Reply to  Mark

Very good, Mark.

But I was waiting (hoping) for the SCHWACK ! at the end.

Mark
Mark
20 days ago
Reply to  JohnB

Actually there were s all through when I dashed it off, but I forgot the software would treat the as HTML and didn’t leave spaces, so they all disappeared. Duh!

Mark
Mark
20 days ago
Reply to  Mark

Looks like > and < disappear even if you leave spaces. Huh! I'll try that again with square brackets:

Actually there were [slap]s all through when I dashed it off, but I forgot the software would treat the brackets as HTML and didn’t leave spaces, so they all disappeared. Duh!

Biker
Biker
20 days ago

i don’t care about the virus, i don’t care if i’ve had it, i don’t care if i haven’t, i don’t care if you’ve died from it, i don’t care if i die from it, i don’t care if you’re scared, i’m don’t care about the NHS, i don’t care about the community, i don’t care about the Beatles, i don’t care about dead presidents, i don’t care about Boris Johnston, i don’t care about my neighbours, i don’t care what the law says, i don’t care about masks, i don’t care about vaccinations, i don’t care about pollution, i don’t care about other countries, i don’t care about the council, i don’t care about the internet, i don’t care about Africa, i don’t care about polar bears, i don’t care about islam, i don’t care about christians, i don’t care about jews, i don’t care about far out religions practiced by Hollywood Superstars, i don’t care David Bowie is dead, i don’t care about global warming, i care about me, Yoko and me, and Great Britain.

JohnB
JohnB
20 days ago
Reply to  Biker

Don’t your neighbours live in GB, Biker ?

Biker
Biker
20 days ago
Reply to  JohnB

yeah but i don’t care about them because they’re here with their three kids and their mother from Poland all of them on benefits using our schools and the piss poor NHS, they’re not British and their not welcome and i don’t care for paying for them when you consider my wife, my daughter and my self have a combined working life of 75 years and yet they come and sponge of me so No i don’t care about them.

ianp
ianp
19 days ago
Reply to  Biker

Sorry, can’t agree with you there. You’re as furious as the rest of us here but are misdirecting your anger.

My parents were both from Poland, they arrived after WW2, now passed away. I was born here in England. Both my parents worked hard to give me a future, and I myself have worked my entire life as well, contributing to the government and economy. People just want freedom and opportunity.

Better directed at those who want to divide us and injected the population with fear i say

And no, I am no tree hugging hippy… I work in a more corporate world.

Jonathan Castro
Jonathan Castro
20 days ago
Reply to  Biker

I care about pollution, and is polar bears went extinct it would be a shame.

BecJT
BecJT
20 days ago

Me too, I care about most things, and currently I really care that the strategy we are following is hurting all the people it purported to care about.

Quentin
Quentin
19 days ago
Reply to  Biker

You should probably start caring about the internet, it has proven ratehr vital for us sceptics to share our views and kp each other sane. A censor free unsurveilled internet which is not buried under layers of advertising crap (so we’ve got quite a few things to fix) is vital to a civilised future. Wikipedia is a good project. Technical forums are very useful. Blogs are good fun to read. And where else are you going to find a wide enough range of products on sale to be able to buy some rare little special component necessary to fix your car/fridge/computer? Faecesbook on the other hand is not worth caring about.

RDawg
RDawg
20 days ago

Wow Toby! Where do you find the hours in the day? Amazing stuff, I dare say award-winning journalism. You and Simon Dolan are the reasons I still have hope the truth will come out eventually, and the lockdown will be ruled as both unlawful and critically, as causing far more deaths than the virus itself.

I have really had enough of this lockdown. I even designed my own t-shirt to wear in protest. It doesn’t hold back. Check it out here…

https://twitter.com/wewillbefree82/status/1261302261042622471?s=21

BecJT
BecJT
20 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

I’m also mulling ‘Human, Social, Not Distant’

BecJT
BecJT
20 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

Or
Humans are social
Not distant

Will Jones
20 days ago

The 19 million claim is almost certainly wrong. The Cambridge model used by the government that is being reported on today predicts 20% of Londoners infected https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/londons-r-rate-now-lowest-in-country-as-city-records-24-new-coronavirus-cases-a-day-a4441216.html, which sounds about right and is the same as New York. It also chimes with the 10% infections in London back in mid-April that Patrick Vallance says preliminary antibody survey results show. It would be very surprising if more than 20% of London has had the virus, and that is the UK’s worst affected area. You are right to say that herd immunity has been reached though – the Liverpool model shows why that would be true.

guy153
guy153
20 days ago
Reply to  Will Jones

Are you adjusting for how long it takes antibodies to appear (4 to 5 weeks) and for how rapidly the percentage immune grows after about 5%?

Will Jones
20 days ago
Reply to  guy153

Current research suggests antibodies appear around 7 days after symptoms and given the now widely accepted 5-6 day incubation it means antibodies appear on average 12 days after infection. See the Swedish antibody survey https://www.scilifelab.se/news/new-study-confirms-that-10-percent-of-the-stockholm-population-has-antibodies-against-sars-cov-2/ and this study
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7184973/

guy153
guy153
20 days ago
Reply to  Will Jones

Thanks. I was basing my figures off a professional-looking graph someone sent me but I don’t have a better reference than that.

The picture that seems to be emerging is that this disease tops out at around 0.1% PFR in the worse affected places with an immunity level of perhaps only 30%, which will have been affected by the changes in behaviour.

Based on what I said above about how halving your infectious time with something as simple as staying at home for a couple of days when you’re ill, and how this reduces the herd immunity threshold from 60% to 20%, I think we can explain the apparently mysterious result that the lockdowns don’t have much observable effect.

As soon as R is below 1 it doesn’t make much difference how much it is below 1, because at that point you kill the growth.

The lockdowns were “too” late in most places by which I mean by the time they started R was already reduced by partial population immunity. It then takes only very mild behaviour changes to get below 1. This is why Sweden has the same results as Italy. Maybe R was 0.8 in one place and 0.2 in the place with stricter controls. It doesn’t make much difference to the outcome once they’re both below 1. That same difference of 0.6 would be much more significant if you had 1.5 in one place and 0.9 in the other.

This is why if we did go right back to normal life as it was in January we probably would get a bunch more deaths as things reached a higher herd immunity threshold. But to prevent that we only need very minor adaptations, which will happen automatically anyway because of all the fear created around this thing.

Will Jones
19 days ago
Reply to  guy153

The Sweden antibody survey I link to suggests 10% infection in Stockholm county at the end of March. That works out to be the peak of infection there suggesting the final antibody rate will be a bit more than double that as the curve is slower on the way down. If so that makes Stockholm higher than London or New York despite being less dense, suggesting you may be right about HIT being higher without lockdown. I’ll be really interested in what Belarus’s antibody rate looks like, where social distancing has been even less observed.

guy153
guy153
19 days ago
Reply to  Will Jones

We’ll find out more about London when things are properly published, and also when testing has been done after the epidemic has settled down, where it’s less sensitive to estimates of how long it takes for antibodies to appear and you’re not having to predict final outcomes. But yes whatever it is at the peak it should be about double that at the end.

I think the ONS are going to be doing regular testing, and other governments around the world will be as well, with big sample sizes.

They’re also doing regular random PCR testing to get an idea of numbers currently infected and how it’s changing.

The government’s policy of “Alert Level = R + Num Infected”, or more precisely, “Alert Level = Some vague unknown function of R and Num Infected” is actually encouragingly rational. If the ONS keep doing those surveys, they will have good data to estimate both of those variables (using the same simple method as the Manchester guys used to estimate “average daily infection rate”, but their data will be better).

This will be the first time the policy is based on actual evidence not spooky speculation or modelling. The challenge for them will just to be not to overreact (fine-tuning of that vague function that they call “+”). Those variables will tell them directly what the actual epidemic is doing.

Comparing what we get from antibody testing with the regression analysis that the Manchester guys did (which will be improved in accuracy as we have more tests) may then actually be able to give a hint as to whether there is an innate immunity effect (significant numbers of people who are immune but don’t test positive for the antibodies).

Awkward Git
Awkward Git
19 days ago
Reply to  guy153

Nicola Sturgeon said a classic – “we don’t know what the R number is but it is too high”. Not one journalist (haha) in the briefing even questioned her comment.

Will Jones
19 days ago
Reply to  guy153

I’ve found more accurate Stockholm death data https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7184973/ and that puts peak deaths on 6 April so peak infections (on 21 March) come well before the 10% antibody survey relating to 31 March. This means Stockholm may come in below 20% antibodies. They’re doing another survey at the moment so we’ll see what that shows.

Barney McGrew
Barney McGrew
20 days ago
Reply to  Will Jones

“The 19 million claim is almost certainly wrong.” Are you saying it’s too high?

Maybe too high for the antibodies test, but I don’t think too high for people who have been ‘exposed’ to the virus, or who have even ‘resisted’ the virus.

Will Jones
20 days ago
Reply to  Barney McGrew

Yes too high for antibodies. Agree, too low for exposed probably.

Mark
Mark
20 days ago

Wow, Luke Johnson was great on QT, to judge from that Mirror summary and clip. Almost makes me think about reconsidering my longstanding decision to stop watching the BBC state indoctrination channel. Then I see the performance of Bruce and the straightforwardly mendacious references to Sweden by Devi Sridhar, and I think: nah, I’ll just rely on people like Toby to let me know if I miss anything.

South Coast Worker
South Coast Worker
20 days ago
Reply to  Mark

I started watching and the same old tired nonsense of “tell that to the families” etc. That is such faux sincere bollocks. Millions of people die everyday, it’s human nature to effectively ignore it. Otherwise we’d be in a state of perpetual terror and grief. Which is basically where we are now I suppose.

Mark
Mark
20 days ago

Yes, it’s the dishonest sentimentality – fake emotion – that really burns.

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
20 days ago

I steeled myself to watch Question Time last night. Luke Johnson managed to get the important questions in, though they were unfortunately quickly eclipsed by the nauseating Tory self-congratulation of Stephen Barclay, the pointlessness of Bridget Phillipson’s comments and the semi-articulate ramblings of the seriously uninformed Mick Cash. I have to watch Devi Sridhar through gritted teeth. She (and her confederates) has a LOT to answer for.

Luke Johnson currently ranks as one of my heroes!

Victoria
Victoria
20 days ago

Well Done Holywell Village First School in Whitley Bay. Your proposed treating of small kids amount to child abuse. As you are well aware there is no evidence of children infecting others, but you prefer to believe that they are germ ridden and should be treated as such. Shame on you.

kh1485
kh1485
20 days ago
Reply to  Victoria

I agree. The last point about ‘toileting accidents’ really, really? So you’re an adult and a child in distress has an accident and you just leave them. Disgusting and disgraceful.

Farinances
Farinances
20 days ago
Reply to  Victoria

Tell you what, this shit is really brining home how much most teachers actually hate children.

Lms2
Lms2
20 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

See my post of a few minutes ago, which is a link to a site highlighting what a Quebec school is mandating for their pupils. It’s scary, dystopian stuff.

IanE
IanE
20 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

You have to understand that teachers believe that the perfect school should be modelled on the Nightingale hospitals – i.e. without any users!

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
20 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

I honestly think they’re so busy being scared for their lives that they’ve forgotten about the children.
Those rules can’t possibly have been devised by someone who works with reception kids.

BecJT
BecJT
20 days ago
Reply to  Victoria

Plus, it is NOT children’s job to make adults feel safe, it is adults’ job to keep children safe. Anything else is child abuse.

paulito
paulito
20 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

Hello BecJT. This typifies the utter hypocrisy of those people who support the lockdown because “you can’t put a price on human life”. when they are only concerned about their own. These people are prepared to traumatise defenceless kids to protect themselves. They make me vomit.

Nigel Baldwin
Nigel Baldwin
20 days ago
Reply to  BecJT

Having them sit in chalk squares is also abuse. Reminds me of some very weird, distressing Play(s) for Today from the sixties and seventies. (Showing my age. )

paulito
paulito
20 days ago
Reply to  Victoria

These people should be barred from the teaching profession for life. Utter monsters.

ianp
ianp
20 days ago
Reply to  Victoria

Had to be a spoof surely? As much as the primitive sheep were manipulated into Fear, be equally watchful of the righteously pissed off (us) being manipulated down the slope.

Don’t put anything past these MSM creatures once they know which side their bread should be buttered.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
20 days ago

Wow!!! Is that post from Holywell Village First School in Whitley Bay for real or a spoof?

Reading this is depressing – its tantamount to child abuse and a return to the bad old days of orphanages and schools that Charles Dickens described so vividly in novels like Oliver Twist. In addition this regime of excessive cleanliness and OCD disinfecting will ensure that children will have even weaker immune systems and catch every cold and bug going.

Just let them be kids for God’s sake. As that washing powder advert said it best – “dirt is good”

Carrie
Carrie
20 days ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

Just to remind people that here in Sweden schools have stayed open, and there have not been mass epidemics or deaths in schools. To the best of my knowledge (from newspaper reports & TV) only ONE schoolchild has died – a child who already had leukaemia…

Carausius
Carausius
20 days ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

It appears to be for real. The exact wording of the toilet section is:
‘If they fall over or have a toileting accident they will be encouraged to change themselves and clean their scrape or cut. We have sourced PPE … which is for use only for staff protection should a child vomit, not for trips, falls or scrapes . If it is not possible for the child to clean themselves in the event of an accident the parent will be called to collect them so they can do that at home’ The document is signed by the current headteacher of the school. Worth remembering these provisions all apply to Reception and Year 1 children – that’ll leave them with some enduring memories of their first experiences of school.

However, on the plus side it would seem that thanks to a fusillade of negative comments from parents the original post has now been removed.

paulito
paulito
19 days ago
Reply to  Carausius

Have the Government nothing to say about these inhuman proposals. The facts taht children don’t get infected nor infect adults should be rammed down those people’s miserable throats. They should be told in no uncertain terms that if they impose this monstrous plan, they’ll be out of a job and baaned from teaching. And if they still don’t get the message, a prosecution for child abuse will be brought. If anybody refuses to do the job they’re paid for to avoid a nonexistent threat they should be immediately removed.

Sylvie
Sylvie
19 days ago
Reply to  paulito

Of course children infect adults – or do you imagine the virus has some magic way of interrogating its new host about their age before it activates itself?

paulito
paulito
19 days ago
Reply to  Carausius

Hope the parents took screenshots. The Headteacher who signed this odious document should already be seeking alternative employment.

AidanR
AidanR
20 days ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

It certainly passes the sniff test of truth in this paranoid society overrun with hysterical tabbard-wearing Karens.

I listened to this week’s Sounding Board podcast, one of the guys on there was talking about what his kid’s school is proposing, and it’s very very similar.

Victoria
Victoria
20 days ago

James Delingpole’s article (link above) ‘why I won’t clap for the NHS’ is brilliant

Wilfred
Wilfred
20 days ago
Reply to  Victoria

Sorry, where is the link – would really like to read that piece.

RDawg
RDawg
20 days ago
Reply to  Wilfred

In Toby’s main newsletter (today’s update). Not in the comments.

AidanR
AidanR
20 days ago
Reply to  Victoria

It is. James is having a good war, to the extent that he’s almost made up for being so bad on Boris over the last year. Some of us always knew BoJo would be a useless invertebrate liberal. We just liked that he’s funny. Now he isn’t even that.

james007
james007
20 days ago
Reply to  AidanR

I foolishly voted for Johnson and the Conservatives at the election because I was worried about Corbyn.

I thought Corbyn would drive the country off the cliff, crash the economy, escalate the national debt, create an overbearing state, crush civil liberties and care for nothing except the sacred NHS. Johnson did all those things to a far greater degree than I ever thought possible under Corbyn.

ianp
ianp
20 days ago
Reply to  james007

Ok, I know it’s crap but this is and always was a world political game, not just UK on its own. What would cuddly corbyn or starmer have done? We would be in an even stricter lockdown, for even longer.. Labour don’t have a leg to stand on here

Exhibit for expected behaviour before backing down , one N Sturgeon

South Coast Worker
South Coast Worker
19 days ago
Reply to  james007

This lockdown was going to happen regardless, even if no one died. Countries where there have been zero deaths have had lockdowns in fact. Something else has driven all this.

A Meshiea
A Meshiea
19 days ago

The crisis of the nation state legitimacy in the face of debt.

Nat
Nat
20 days ago
Reply to  Victoria

Very funny “Clap for the NHS” spoof by comedian Will Hislop

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/comedy/news/will-hislop-clap-for-carers-nhs-parody-video-lockdown-a9506541.html

I apologise if it has been posted already.

Jane
Jane
20 days ago

Here in France they passed a law a few years ago prohibiting women from wearing the niqab (the face covering with only the eyes showing) in the street. You could be fined for covering up your face like that. On the way back from my walk today I passed an Algerian woman in head scarf and covid face mask. As far as I can see, headscarf plus face mask equals niqab. All you could see were her eyes. Yet soon they might start fining us for not covering up our faces. I was rather pleased with myself for spotting the irony – there aren’t many bright spots in my day at the moment.

Victoria
Victoria
20 days ago
Reply to  Jane

contradiction. Imagine how crime in certain areas will increase, nobody would blink when they see masked people

Farinances
Farinances
20 days ago
Reply to  Jane

This is why I think wearing a balaclava would be a good leveller. Are they gonna fine me for NOT looking like a criminal?

AidanR
AidanR
20 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

Don’t forget to accessorize with a chainsaw

paulito
paulito
20 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

Hello Farinances. I read your comment about wearing balcalvas this afternoon and I still laugh when I think about it. I’m seriously thinking about doing it.

Victoria
Victoria
20 days ago

What You Need to Know Before & After Vaccination – Ask 8 questions.

Under the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986 [USA], nearly $3.6 billion has been awarded to children and adults for whom the risks of vaccine injury were 100%. Vaccines are pharmaceutical products that carry risks, which can be greater for some than others. NVIC encourages you to become fully informed about the risks and complications of diseases and vaccines and speak with one or more trusted health care professionals before making a vaccination decision.

1. Am I or my child sick right now?
2. Have I or my child had a bad reaction to a vaccination before?
3. Do I or my child have a personal or family history of vaccine reactions, neurological disorders, severe allergies or immune system problems?
4. Do I know the disease and vaccine risks for myself or my child?
5. Do I have full information about the vaccine’s side effects?
6. Do I know how to identify and report a vaccine reaction?
7. Do I know I need to keep a written record, including the vaccine manufacturer’s name and lot number, for all vaccinations?
8. Do I know I have the right to make an informed choice?

If you answered yes to questions 1, 2, and 3, or no to questions 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 and do not understand the significance of your answer, you may want to explore information on NVIC’s website to better understand the importance of your answer. These questions are designed to educate consumers about the importance of making fully informed vaccine decisions. Click here to learn more about the role of informed consent in vaccination.

https://www.nvic.org/Ask-Eight-Questions.aspx

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
20 days ago

From the German summary: “The collateral damage is meanwhile greater than any detectable benefits of the measures. The collateral damage is now gigantic. Much will become evident only later or in the more distant future.

The resilience of critical infrastructure, the veins and arteries of modern societies, is no longer a given. Our society is now vulnerable, for example, if there were a real pandemic.”

Sobering stuff and I’m sure it applies to the UK too.

Lms2
Lms2
20 days ago

I did wonder whether our painfully politically correct progressive education establishment would follow Quebec down the rabbit hole, and sure enough, it seems that they have, going by the report from Toby.
Here’s a link to an article that just five years ago would have been thought to be something out of a dystopian science fiction novel:

https://www.theorganicprepper.com/schools-after-covid-prison-camps/
What Will Schools Look Like After COVID? Prison Camps. They’ll Look Like Prison Camps.

“Schools in Quebec, Canada are reopening on May 19th and one school released its guidelines. This list was submitted by a parent to the Facebook page, Kate for Education. The school was not named for the privacy of the parent. (All emphasis is mine.)

Now if you’re saying to yourself, “This is in Canada. There’s no way this nonsense will happen here in America,” I urge you to remember that the lockdown restrictions in Canada are far less stringent than those in the United States. Look around at the ridiculous rules we already have like stores choosing what items are essential for us to buy. Then tell me “It can’t happen here.”

Here are those reopening guidelines.

To minimize movement, we forecast assigning students to classes nearest the Berlin Street entrance (on all 3 floors if needed only);
Once assigned to a class, students will spend their entire day (including lunchtime) in their assigned seats;
Students must expect to be regrouped based on the number of students returning;
Students must not expect to return to their regular class with their classmates;
Your child may not be with the same teachers as before as several members of our staff will not be returning to school;
Teachers not returning to school will continue working and keeping close contact with students remotely from home as recommended by the government;
Activities completed while in school will not be evaluated or graded;
No physical materials will be transported back and forth between home & school;
Students must include a mini garbage and recycling bag with their lunch in order to collect their personal garbage and dispose of it at home;
All students must bring in their personal, labeled, and filled water bottle as water fountains won’t be available;
Sharing of ALL items (pencils, pens, sharpeners, wax crayons, rulers, toys) is not permitted;
When weather permits, recess breaks will be held outdoors and will entail of walking outside safely distanced from one another in a prearranged pattern;
Gatherings (groups of students together) will not be permitted;
Limited travel throughout the school by all during the day;
Bathroom visits will be monitored/escorted so that proper disinfection by our caretakers can follow before another student uses the facilities;
As per government recommendations, masks and gloves will not be provided;
Students are certainly welcomed to bring these items from home. They are also invited to carry their own personal disinfecting wipes with them if they wish;
Lockers will no longer be used. Students will place their spring/summer jackets behind the chair they will be using & their school bags under their assigned desks;
There will be no cafeteria service or Home & School pizza & frozen yogurt days.
There will be no physical activity taking place in the gym, no art classes (although art and craft projects can be promoted as home suggestions), no library periods, and no drama classes;
No fundraisers or after school activities will take place;
Parent volunteers will not be permitted in school;
We recommend your child brings a book or two of interest from home to read;
Students with fever or flu-like symptoms will be returned home.”

I’d like to know the scientific and epidemiological rationale behind these kinds of rules for a section of the population that the virus barely touches, and if it does, in such tiny numbers that without the constant reporting we’d never even notice it.
If there’s a way to terrorise our children, and make them constantly afraid of being near other people, other children, this is it. The people who have come up with these rules are dangerous idiots, and should have absolutely nothing to do with the education of anyone, let alone vulnerable children.

Carrie
Carrie
20 days ago
Reply to  Lms2

..and yet schools in Sweden have remained open, but there have been no reports of hoards of dead children or their relatives.. And do remember that Sweden has quite a lot of children of foreign-born parents, living in multi-generational households..

james007
james007
20 days ago
Reply to  Lms2

What a depressing list of regulations. The authors of these dictats have a responsibility to provide evidence to justify them.

Yet only evidence I’ve seen so far regarding children and COVID-19 is that risks are negligible. Children are far more at risk of serious illness due to a road accident travelling to the school.

To frighten children, withdraw their education and then produce these pedantic regulations they must obey is a shameful, incompetent and damaging.
This is a huge failure. It must never be forgotten.

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
20 days ago
Reply to  Lms2

“When weather permits, recess breaks will be held outdoors and will entail of walking outside safely distanced from one another in a prearranged pattern;”

Ar “recess breaks” what used to be called PLAYTIME?
Scary stuff!!!

AN other lockdown sceptic
AN other lockdown sceptic
20 days ago

Insanity still escalating exponentially in states like California. The rulers there say a cure needs to be found before the serfs can expect to be ‘allowed’ to get back to normal.

The state of Georgia re-opened 3 weeks ago though. Guess what? No impact!

More here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIf2audbX0Q

Thank heavens for Tucker Carlson.

Lms2
Lms2
20 days ago

AN other lockdown sceptic: Indeed. Tucker Carlson Tonight is the only show I watch.

T. Prince
T. Prince
20 days ago
Reply to  Lms2

I thinks it was someone on Tucker’s show that said ‘the virus goes when Trump goes’…definitely a political pandemic over there…

Tim Bidie
Tim Bidie
20 days ago

I picked up a twitter link on yesterday’s thread which led me to this early pre-print draft of a report (‘accepted’ 07 May 2020):

‘Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2−reactive CD4+ T cells in ~40-60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.’

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf

Why is this important?

‘Cross-reactive immunity to influenza strains has been modeled to be a critical influencer of susceptibility to newly emerging, potentially pandemic, influenza strains (Gostic et al., 2016). Given the severity of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it has been modeled that any degree of crossprotective coronavirus immunity in the population could have a very substantial impact on the overall course of the pandemic, and the dynamics of the epidemiology for years to come (Kissler et al., 2020).’ (Ref. above)

So rough order of magnitude 50% of Britain already has immunity to Covid 19 from other common cold coronaviruses.

How completely counterintuitive that circulating common cold coronaviruses could potentially have cross reactive immunity with another circulating coronavirus with mortality closely corresponding to common cold mortality by age group……..or not really, if Covid 19 is another common cold coronavirus….

Oh! Didn’t somebody already say that is what Covid 19 is…..on 06 Feb 2020…in Hong Kong (only 4 Covid 19 deaths to date) and who was he…Prof John Nicholls, Professor of clinical pathology and coronavirus expert, University of Hong Kong.

Oh for heaven’s sake!

Professor John Nicholls details and opinions Here:

http://www.patho.hku.hk/staff/list/nicholls.html

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/coronavirus-expert-says-the-virus-will-burn-itself-out-in-about-6-months/679415

https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/conference-call-coronavirus-expert

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800

guy153
guy153
20 days ago

An observation about R0 and immunity thresholds that I think is worth making:

Most data about the virus (and what models assume) indicate that you are infectious for about 4 days.

This means that if you “self-isolate” for only 2 of them (or take a couple of days off work because you’re feeling ill as we used to call it) you halve R0.

If R0 was 2.5 under normal circumstances, just those two days off would take it to 1.25 and reduce the population immunity threshold from 60% to only 20%.

This would more than halve the total number of deaths in the population, and be more than enough to suppress the virus even under some of the more pessimistic estimates of current immunity levels going around.

Never mind two weeks of “self-quarantining”, if you only manage to stay at home for a couple of days, the effect is profound.

This is literally all we need in the “new” normal. I always take a day or two off work when I have a virus anyway. I find I feel a bit ill and don’t much want to work anyway. It’s not a great cost to the economy or to liberty to do this.

Farinances
Farinances
20 days ago
Reply to  guy153

EXACTLY!!

Peoole just er…. need to stay at home if they’re ill until they feel better!

LOL. Why does common sense feel so revolutionary now

scuzzaman
scuzzaman
19 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

in the empire of lies, truth is treason

Albie
Albie
20 days ago
Reply to  guy153

Would it be correct to place pro-lockdowners into 2 broad groups: a) those furloughed and think they have a job to eventually return to, enjoying being paid 80% for nothing, privately punching the air when death numbers and the R rate rises but publicly make out they are deeply compassionate and abuse anyone who dares question the context or validity of SAGE and Government statistics, and b) uncritical, gullible, panic-consumed “I’m terrrrrified!” cowerers, those of whom, when they do venture outdoors, look like they are going to an astronomy themed fancy dress party as Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin off on an Apollo mission.

AidanR
AidanR
20 days ago
Reply to  Albie

Yes, I think that analysis is spot on.

Jaguarpig
Jaguarpig
20 days ago
Reply to  Albie

Spot on

South Coast Worker
South Coast Worker
20 days ago
Reply to  Albie

You’re giving a lot of people too much credit. Unfortunately they really are thick enough to believe we are on the brink of the apocalypse and this lockdown strategy is the only way to avoid it,

Jonathan Castro
Jonathan Castro
20 days ago
Reply to  Albie

People I know on furlough would far rather be working

guy153
guy153
20 days ago
Reply to  Albie

To be fair a lot of how people respond depends on the information they’ve received and also on their underlying inclinations.

Those naturally given to a bit of hypochondria worry about the virus which has a low chance of hurting them. But some of us (including myself at times), more predisposed to anxiety about society and government overreach, worry about things like compulsory tracking and vaccination. Rationally these things have an equally low chance of happening. So we aren’t that different, we just get vexed about different things, and it’s important to see both sides.

There’s also nothing wrong with a bit of ranting. I’m just saying don’t take it too seriously.

But anyone, whatever they think about this virus, should be able to see that lockdowns are a catastrophically bad reaction to the problem.

ianp
ianp
20 days ago
Reply to  guy153

I wouldn’t be so sure about the tracking being low chance y’know…, Forget the vaccine crap, even if there was one, that feels like a stalling tactic at moment. Check your phone location settings and there’s a rather interesting option on there to do with Bluetooth (Android). Already.

We are in the world of big data and surveillance. Don’t put it past any of them

guy153
guy153
19 days ago
Reply to  ianp

Agree smartphones are already a bit worrying. But nobody’s forcing us to carry them. If they cross that line I’ll join you out in the street burning things!

ianp
ianp
19 days ago
Reply to  guy153

Well, I don’t think you can, realistically. After all I am replying to this on my smartphone… Otherwise, I would be indoors which is where you don’t want to be. Catch 22

There’s a single goal being played out here for sure, but I reckon there are 2 paths to it at least

Stay alert and follow the money I say.

And… Another coincidence? During lockdown, I see all the local lampposts have been replaced with energy efficient ones else I am dreaming and they weren’t there before or didn’t notice how quickly it happened.

Easy to get paranoid these days…;)

Awkward Git
Awkward Git
19 days ago
Reply to  guy153

Yes but if you voluntary self-isolate or self-quarantine you will not qualify for the compensation from your local authority as stated in the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984.

Under this act there are quite a few hoops the doctors, the local authority and a Justice of the Peace have to go through to isolate or quarantine you as an individual including you have the exact illness specified in the Statutory Instrument the Coronavirus Act 2020 but the test does not exist – this legislation is misnamed, it is not an act of parliament).

Premises also have to be closed individually after similar hoops have gone through and compensation is also payable.

In the legislation:

In the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 it states in Section 20:

Stopping of work to prevent spread of disease

(1)With a view to preventing the spread of—
(a)a notifiable disease, or
(b)a disease to which subsection (1) of section 23 of the [1955 c. 16 (4 & 5 Eliz. 2).] Food and Drugs Act 1955 applies,the proper officer of the local authority for any district may by notice in writing request any person to discontinue Ms work.
(2)The local authority shall compensate a person who has suffered any loss in complying with a request under this section, and section 57(2), (3) and (4) below shall apply to any dispute arising under this subsection.

And in a different section:

PART VI
General

57General provision for compensation
(1)A local authority shall make full compensation to any person who has sustained damage by reason of the exercise by the authority, in relation to a matter as to which that person has not himself been in default, of any of their powers under a relevant provision of this Act; but this subsection does not affect the discretion of a local authority under section 31(4) above in a case to which that subsection applies.
(2)Subject to subsection (3) below, any dispute arising under this section as to the fact of damage, or as to the amount of compensation, shall be determined by arbitration.
(3)If the compensation claimed does not exceed £50, all questions as to the fact of damage, liability to pay compensation and the amount of compensation may, on the application of either party, be determined by, and any compensation awarded may be recovered before, a magistrates’ court.
(4)In an arbitration under this section, the reference shall be to a single arbitrator appointed by agreement between the parties or, in default of agreement, by the Secretary of State.
58Form of notices and other documents
(1)All notices, orders and other documents authorised or required by or under this Act to be given, made or issued by a local authority, and all notices and applications authorised or required by or under this Act to be given or made to or to any officer of a local authority, shall be in writing.
(2)The Secretary of State may by regulations made by statutory instrument prescribe the form of any notice, certificate or other document to be used for the purposes of this Act, and, if forms are so prescribed, those forms or forms to the like effect may be used in all cases to which those forms are applicable.

steve__m
steve__m
18 days ago
Reply to  guy153

But R is an empirical figure calculated after it was understood by many that the virus is infectious.

People were washing hands, avoiding hand-shakes and staying home when ill long before the lockdown began. Yet R was above 2 right up until the start of the lockdown.

kh1485
kh1485
20 days ago

Further to Toby’s comment about using the ruse of having a house-viewing to see friends I have just discovered the reality of attempting to organise an actual house viewing: you have to sign a ‘Health Assessment Form’ and read an eight page document. After reading this drivel, I am having heart palpitations. I despair …

kh1485
kh1485
20 days ago
Reply to  kh1485

And, if you do not comply with the “strict viewing protocol”, the viewing will be suspended …

james007
james007
20 days ago
Reply to  kh1485

“Viewing protocol”. It’s comical.

So you get chucked out for standing too close to a wall or using a door handle?

kh1485
kh1485
20 days ago
Reply to  james007

That’s what it looks like. And you know what, the couldn’t give a shit* part of me really wants to test that out. I forwarded the instruction manual to a friend and he said he gave up the will to live by page 3. I’m sorry, but this is getting bloody ridiculous. Leaving young kids who have an accident to their own devices and being given an 8 page instruction manual just to go and look at a house.

*s’cuse language but I am now getting angry.

james007
james007
20 days ago
Reply to  kh1485

I’m really unclear what the distinction between government advice and the law is.
It seems to be very blurry. If the government advises something, all organisations and people seem to follow as a legal text.

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
20 days ago
Reply to  james007

That’s easy. The law is considered for a time, then written down. The government make up the guidelines on the hoof, to answer journalists quesitons.

guy153
guy153
20 days ago
Reply to  Cheezilla

Sadly with an 80 seat majority that’s pretty much how lawmaking works as well. Somebody was talking or petitioning about whether we needed a constitution the other day.

All this is going to be torture for the millions of people who will be trying to get new jobs in this environment. Having to pay lip service through gritted teeth to all the BS that got them sacked in the first place is going to cause its own epidemic of apoplectic rage.

james007
james007
19 days ago
Reply to  guy153

In a police state law enforcers take their orders directly from government ministers. There is no debate there is no discussion.
In other words government advice becomes law and all organisations follow it without question.

JohnB
JohnB
20 days ago
Reply to  kh1485

Anything that doesn’t kill us, makes us stronger. 🙂

TheRisksITakeAreNoneOfTheirBusiness
TheRisksITakeAreNoneOfTheirBusiness
20 days ago
Reply to  JohnB

It only makes us stronger AFTER we’ve had the experience of throwing it off and telling the hi-vis Hitlers where to put the more ludicrous of their “guidelines”.

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
20 days ago
Reply to  kh1485

And only one viewer, which will make couples less than enthusiastic.

james007
james007
20 days ago
Reply to  kh1485

Is it SAGE advising on these rules?

Perhaps they have decided that houseviewings are more dangerous than tradesmen visiting a property. I had someone round today to quote for repairing windows. He said his trade association advised he respect all social distancing rules(/laws) but he was otherwise free to visit properties.

By the way, if I wrote a dystopian novel, I would think “SAGE” would be the perfect name for an organisation who represent “The Science”, The single truth, the light of the world, by which all things are illuminated and whose advise is final and automatically law.

JohnB
JohnB
20 days ago
Reply to  james007

I keep trying to think of a joke about SAGE and stuffing, but it won’t quite come …

T. Prince
T. Prince
20 days ago
Reply to  JohnB

Ferguson know all about the latter, that’s why he had to resign…

South Coast Worker
South Coast Worker
19 days ago
Reply to  T. Prince

Ferguson was pushed because he was undermining the credibility of this whole operation. A computer modeller should never be as famous as he had become.

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
20 days ago
Reply to  JohnB

We’ve certainly been stuffed.

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
20 days ago
Reply to  james007

My friend had an appointment for BT engineers to fix her line. She was warned not to be alarmed because they would come wearing the near equivalent of hazmat suits. Unfortunately they fixed it outside, so she missed all the drama.

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
20 days ago
Reply to  kh1485

I understand the house owner has to leave the premises. (Ironic that!) Should go down well (not!) when the weather is less than idyllic.

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
20 days ago

“People should stop walking in the road to avoid fellow pedestrians, police have said, adding that “momentarily crossing paths with someone” will not give you coronavirus.”

Hooray! We need this trumpeting from the rooftops. Let’s hope the MSM start to point this out regularly till it eventually sinks in.

IanE
IanE
20 days ago
Reply to  Cheezilla

Yes – I got a very dirty (and completely terrified) look from a lady who was weeding at the end of her drive as I walked past yesterday without stepping into the road.

Cody
Cody
20 days ago

TFL congestion charge rises to £15 from £11.50 next month,a 30% increase.Also now active from 7am until 10pm 7 days a week.A sign of things to come methinks.

IanE
IanE
20 days ago
Reply to  Cody

Someone needs to tell those in power about the goose that laid golden eggs!

ianp
ianp
20 days ago
Reply to  Cody

Oh yes….

james007
james007
20 days ago

I had a response from my MP today. It seems I must “bear in mind” that most of his constituents want more lockdowns, because they worry they may die of a terrible plague.

“Yes we know we’ve been governing in a state of blind panic, but the essence of leadership is to terrify the people, work how the people feel, and then to follow them”

RDawg
RDawg
20 days ago
Reply to  james007

Mine still hasn’t replied in two weeks.

Farinances
Farinances
20 days ago
Reply to  james007

Total silence from mine and I’ve been emailing every day.
So this is why people don’t vote.

james007
james007
19 days ago
Reply to  Farinances

There was also a copy-paste of a summary of the government’s 5 criteria for easing the lockdown with links to government webpages, to reassure me that yes indeed, they do know what they’re doing, and I ought not to worry about it.

ianp
ianp
19 days ago
Reply to  james007

That’s a very crafty response… It is telling you to do what you think is right

mantrid
mantrid
20 days ago

Bajak and Howe are clearly going through Denial Phase of 5 Stages of Grief model. Just as MSM went through it right after Brexit or Trump’s victory. The joke ultimately will be on them because science is on our side – or rather we’ve been on science’s side from the beginning. In a year they’ll all have to eat their words.

Note also that more and more powerful entrepreneurs and millionaires are stepping up as skeptics too. They’d lost gargantuan amounts of money and they know it was for nothing.

South Coast Worker
South Coast Worker
20 days ago
Reply to  mantrid

I admire your optimism but they’ll just double down like they are now and we’ll forever be known as mad conspiracy theories by people living in a world inexorably changed for the worse.

JohnB
JohnB
20 days ago

Still, mustn’t grumble ! 🙂

South Coast Worker
South Coast Worker
20 days ago
Reply to  JohnB

That’s the spirit!

A Meshiea
A Meshiea
20 days ago

DIARY OF A COVIDIOT Friday May 16th

My trip to B&Q was significantly enhanced by the new one way traffic system and inevitable 2 meter floor tape as well as the unenthusiastic and fat store guards intimidatingly masked and grunting where and when I can move.
Whilst there a woman almost careened into a stack of paint cans while scowling at me for daring to go the wrong direction down a 4 meter wide isle for an item I had to restock. Of course I ignored the instruction on the wall “Please do not touch or pick up items unless you are going to purchase them.” I suppose it’s a bit like the ‘you broke it’s you buy it rule, only during the New Normal.
Inevitably I saw a police car put his lights on to pull over a van driver INSIDE the B&Q parking lot. Doubtless checking to see if he had a real reason to be there.
Thankfully I was pleasantly surprised to meet a stranger who had brought her adorable twin 1.5 year olds to play in the park and didn’t seem in the least concerned about getting close to me, my wife or our dog, happily interchanging petting of said dog and said kids with smiles. At least everyone hasn’t gone mad.

AidanR
AidanR
20 days ago
Reply to  A Meshiea

Yeah, B&Q is really something isn’t it? The Karens working in ours are like the trolley-dollies just after 9/11 – they imagine they’re the thin blue line between you and certain death, and they want everyone to know it.

I went to click and collect a bag of coach bolts. They forced me to use a trolley, so they could do contact-free fulfilment, because they’d run out of baskets. Naturally I dumped the thing as soon as I was out of sight of Karen3072-B.

Jacob Nielson
Jacob Nielson
20 days ago

Now I know I’ve gone mad. Johnny Logan – heavy metal! 🙂

Barney McGrew
Barney McGrew
20 days ago

You were very good on the IAI debate, Toby. I found Anne Johnson a bit infuriating (they all were to some extent) because she could only keep saying “It’s complicated” and seemed incapable of engaging with higher *ideas*. The mention of tens of millions of people starving versus the number of thousands that might die from the virus didn’t seem to register. No hint of any worry about what is going to happen to the global economy. No recognition that life for the entire world has been transformed into the real dystopian deal over a problem that she didn’t even deny was pretty much on the same scale as flu – and something she is complicit in, even if just through her passivity over the whole issue.

But the guy asking the questions was good.

The comparison between a flu-like illness (even if it was ten times worse than actual flu) and shutting down the entire economy is such a huge disparity, and such a huge idea, that it should animate anyone who considers it. It should not be dismissed as the result of “uncertainty” or “panic” – the validity of such excuses has long since past – but should make anyone who thinks about it very, very angry.

Sceptic
Sceptic
20 days ago
Reply to  Barney McGrew

Agree Toby made an excellent argument regarding the Lockdown cause. Interesting that Anne Johnson should finish by saying we will look back and decide the virus just ran its course and that some of the measures ‘may’ have been useful here and there. Looks as if she agrees with LS!

AidanR
AidanR
20 days ago
Reply to  Barney McGrew

Agreed… I’m very glad Toby is doing all that he is.

FiFi Trixabelle
FiFi Trixabelle
20 days ago
Reply to  Barney McGrew

Agreed! It was a great watch and Toby did the sceptics proud.

BTLnewbie
BTLnewbie
20 days ago

… nce to see if he has seen it there

BTLnewbie
BTLnewbie
20 days ago

Sorry – comment got distorted. I was saying – loved the trousers/Tube photo, which would normally be a natural for mainstream media to pick up – wonder if any are brave enough. Ditto the spooky North Korean image of the French primary schoolchildren in their chalk squares the other day, which I’ve sent to my brother in France.

BecJT
BecJT
20 days ago

This is quite handy when discussing, five minutes of Chris Whitty telling you what not to do in a pandemic (from 2018) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBiGk4ORjhQ&t=182s

grammarschoolman
grammarschoolman
20 days ago

‘One thing that makes me slightly sceptical about these anecdotal reports is that I don’t get what the motive is.’

Surely to increase the death toll artificially, in order to pin more deaths on Boris. If every doctor added just one death to the list, just think how much bigger the overall toll would look.

BecJT
BecJT
20 days ago

I’ve been looking, but the CQC have a points system, points mean prizes £££, this is why GPs drive Aston Martins. I’ve yet to get to the bottom of the CQC points system for Covid.

Nat
Nat
20 days ago

I think it is to keep the public frightened and compliant.

BecJT
BecJT
19 days ago
Reply to  Nat

I think it’s political backside covering. To justify what they’ve done.

South Coast Worker
South Coast Worker
19 days ago

The doctors are following the guidelines. Covid goes down on the DC if suspected or any symptoms shown. If someone is found positive, regardless if it contributed, it has to go down as it is a notifiable disease. Both these methods will inflate the numbers, and all will be included in the figures. We’ll never know the real figures, Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a third the total.

Farinances
Farinances
19 days ago

I read the guidelines and concluded that if I got knocked down and killed right now, because I have hayfever symptoms they would probably register it as a covid death and parade me round on tv as YOUNG PEOPLE DIE TOO! !!

WHAT A BLOODY JOKE

Anonymous
Anonymous
20 days ago

I received an interesting letter this morning, inviting me to take part in a Chinese Virus study, run by Imperial College and some global marketing firm. Anyone else receive the same?

RDawg
RDawg
20 days ago

Was thinking, once the cafes/pubs/restaurants open up again, and they WILL open up again, would anybody be open to meeting up? Would be great to put some faces to the names…

I live in London, but I’m not sure how practical that would be for people to get there. 🤔

Oh and how do you add a pic to your profile? I can’t work it out. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Farinances
Farinances
20 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

Totally. If anyone’s in the Shire of York I’d be up for it.
Re: profile pics you have to have a wordpress account. I just logged into my old dead account again, complete with ultra old pic lol. In the account settings it lets you change it etc.

A13
A13
20 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

Totally up for that. Londoner here.
I realised today that I don’t know anyone in person who would be sharing my views regarding lockdown so it would be nice to have face to face conversation with other like-minded people. My quite intelligent and well-educated friends will listen politely to what I have to say and admit that I might be right (time will tell), but their curiosity ends there.

bluefreddy
bluefreddy
20 days ago
Reply to  A13

I live in London and would be happy to meet up. My household of four adults are all now pretty fervent sceptics. We are going to investigate and potentially support the mass gathering in Hyde Park tomorrow.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
20 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

Another Londoner here and will be happy to have a coffee with like minded people here.

Apart from my husband and a close friend, I don’t know anyone else who is a lockdown sceptic like me, most of my work colleagues seem to be pro-lockdown.

BecJT
BecJT
20 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

Not in London, but on a fast train route (do it all the time) and can’t imagine hotels will be turning away my business by hiking prices should they open, so I’m up for it.

Gossamer
Gossamer
19 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

I live in London, and will certainly need some new friends. Many of my existing ones have proved disappointing, to say the least.

Letmeout
Letmeout
19 days ago
Reply to  Gossamer

Mine too. Not too bothered about relaxing social distancing to see friends as not in a rush to see anyone after seeing their comments on WhatsApp and FB. Some of them are just plain nasty.

kh1485
kh1485
19 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

Agree. I’m in North West Essex (or South Cambridgeshire as some round here prefer to call it!)

Oaks79
Oaks79
20 days ago

Journeyman Pictures with a 11 minute film about the Swedish approach, how lucky are these Swedes just getting on with life and drinking in bars eh ?

https://youtu.be/0UvFHDaVRQo

Paul Steward
Paul Steward
20 days ago

I feel the need as a primary school teacher here in the UK to say we are not all panic stricken and desperate to stay closed. My colleagues and I have spent today trying to work out how to allow the children to return to a enjoyable environment however the government is adding layer apon layer of regulations by the hour which is making this difficult. We would like to open to more year groups than suggested but this is not allowed. We are so keen to have the children back for a few weeks to allow them some kind of normality before the summer holidays. I and many like me cannot stand the ridiculously militant unions but I fear they may win the day.

grammarschoolman
grammarschoolman
20 days ago
Reply to  Paul Steward

Presumably the extra regulations are solely the result of union pressure, not because the government actually wants them. Am I right?

Paul Steward
Paul Steward
20 days ago

Yes I think so, mixed with parental pressure whipped up by media!

james007
james007
20 days ago
Reply to  Paul Steward

I think this is a government that follows rather than leads. Their main aim is to be popular protectors of the people.
The media and the government have been in a positive feedback loop fuelling this panic. For the first few weeks every press conference was ‘why are you not regulating more? Why are you not intervining more?’

Jonathan Castro
Jonathan Castro
20 days ago
Reply to  Paul Steward

Stuff the regulations. Stuff the government.

Stuff
Stuff
20 days ago

Stuff the Media who caused the panic. Stuff the Government who listened too much to their bleating. Stuff the Bureaucrats who take guidelines to be laws. Stuff the Eichmann like Jobsworths who follow their rules. Stuff them all because Stuff needs to be got on with.

FiFi Trixabelle
FiFi Trixabelle
20 days ago
Reply to  Paul Steward

Great to hear from you Paul and no doubt there will be many brilliant teachers out there thinking and feeling the same. Unfortunately, once again, we are not hearing those sane voices above the noise and hysteria.

Adele Bull
Adele Bull
20 days ago
Reply to  Paul Steward

Exactly this.

BecJT
BecJT
19 days ago
Reply to  Paul Steward

Really feel for you, I appear to have (or have had) lots of teachers on my FB friends list, they are milking it to the nth degree. Hold firm if you can, there must be some sensible parents out there, or parents you can persuade to be sensible. What they are suggesting is imposed on children is cruel, it is not children’s job to make adults feel safe. It’s not their job to play along with an adult health pantomime to score political points. All this crowing about ‘key workers’ they are doing, whilst blithely failing to notice all those shop workers have managed to keep going, to service their lockdown, but they feel no obligation to do it themselves. They don’t want to hear about job losses, because people who could work (usually low paid, insecurely employed women), can’t work as they have no childcare. Or the attainment gap. Or at risk kids or SEN kids. I think it’ll boomerang on them eventually, particularly when it becomes apparent what this really is, and when other people start losing their jobs and they continue to split hairs whilst sat at home on full pay.

Jenna
Jenna
19 days ago
Reply to  Paul Steward

I have many gripes with the education system and it’s incessant tinkering by Politicians. After Toby’s newsletter yesterday including the ‘new normal regime’ to be adopted by a local primary school, it beggars belief they can’t see the long term damage this will do to children.

The UK not being known for its experimental or progressive nature could’ve changed that by trying other things such as outdoor classrooms to combat the dreaded lurgy. Not only is there ample evidence about the benefits of Vit D but it helps with myopia and breathing in all the problems with indoor air (VOC’s, Sick Building Syndrome etc etc).

An interesting article that notes the history of such schools:

Outdoor Classrooms – Time For A Comeback?
https://www.movementum.co.uk/journal/2019/9/4/outdoor-classroom

Poppy
Poppy
20 days ago

I find it so hilarious how lockdown zealots are still bleating at people to stay away from beauty spots. They’re enormous open areas and these people act like they’re tiny enclosed spaces. I can think of nothing better for health than going for a long, bracing ramble in the fresh air, getting the heart rate up and boosting one’s mood.

I live in a beauty spot and I welcome all visitors. Once shops/restaurants/cafes start opening more, visitors will need to be actively encouraged to come, as these businesses rely on tourists. I desperately don’t want to see my local economy tank and my home become a shabby ghost town.

I already find it devastating walking through the centre of a nearby town – shops not just shut but properly boarded up; some completely gutted of contents, and all devoid of life, light, vitality. It really is like those empty shopping centres you seen in zombie apocalypse films.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
20 days ago
Reply to  Poppy

This is precisely what I was thinking when I saw that announcement from Northumberland Tourism pretty much telling non locals to stay away. I don’t think they realise what will happen as this goes on and on – businesses will collapse and people will be forced to move away leading to whole towns being depopulated and turned into ghost towns.

Paul Steward
Paul Steward
20 days ago
Reply to  Poppy

I too live in a ‘beauty spot’. Cornish coast, countryside and riverbanks all around. I’m horrified by my neighbours narrowing minds and growing hatred of ‘outsiders’ who’ve probably only left one of 2 local towns between 3 and 5 miles away. They seem to think they own the surrounding areas and bleat on about protecting ourselves. I walk my dog 4-5 miles locally on different routes daily and never meet more than a few people, there’s plenty of room for us all and I welcome them. I fear for when restrictions are lifted and tourists (and family members) are allowed to visit, what welcome will they receive?! We have already lost our village cafe (which was the hub of the place, especially for the elderly) and a restaurant we all loved, what else will go?

CarrieAH
CarrieAH
19 days ago
Reply to  Paul Steward

It’s very much the same on the Greek island where I live in summer. The full time expats are shouting and screaming about keeping everyone away from “their” island. They don’t want visitors, tourists or even semi-residents like myself to encroach on their “safety”. However the true islanders, the Greeks who were born there, want to open up. Their livelihoods and families’ ability to be able to eat throughout winter are at stake. The Greek welfare system is not good, you couldn’t survive more than a short while on it. In vain I tell friends over there that the true mortality rate is around 0.05% of a whole population & the majority of those would have died anyway of other medical conditions, but they don’t want to know. I realise there are no intensive care facilities on the island but even so it is a vast over reaction. Stirred up as always because they read the British online newspapers and watch British tv. I truly despair.

Csaba
Csaba
19 days ago
Reply to  CarrieAH

I see the same problem with the media. They focus on news that grabs attention more and because of this makes more money. So the reality stays hidden and hard to find. You should probably put an advert about this website in a local newspaper. 🙂

concrete68
concrete68
19 days ago
Reply to  Paul Steward

Thank you so much, there are some sane people in Cornwall!

Riffman
Riffman
20 days ago

For what’s worth my view is this.
Data from NHS England website;
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

With no pre-existing conditions total deaths on May 13th stands at 1245 (all ages) and 220 (aged 40-59). The population of England is approx 57,000,000 and in the 40-59 age group is approx 15,200,000. If you assume Witty is correct then 5% of the population has been infected with Covid to date.
According to PSNC (Pharmacy Services Negotiating Comittee) website across all age groups 26,000,000 have at least one long term condition, although not all are relevant to Covid pre-existing conditions mortality numbers but lets assume 30% of the population are susceptible.
Please check my maths but in our predominant age group (40-59) with no pre-existing conditions your chance of becoming a Covid fatality is 0.04%. For balance lifetime chance of dying in a road fatality is 1:240 or put another way 0.4%. Flu generally sits at 0.1% with 70% of vulnerable being vaccinated.
With pre-existing conditions it can be more severe but no we have decided to lock down the whole of society because that’s what public opinion demands (having spent two months scaring them all).
What we are witnessing is bordering on mass hysteria.

guy153
guy153
20 days ago
Reply to  Riffman

Totally agree except we’re way past “bordering on”

scuzzaman
scuzzaman
20 days ago

I don’t really care what politicians say about why they do stupid and evil things. I don’t even bother trying to figure out if they’re stupid or evil. Or both.

I just look at what they do and I hold as a principle of political analysis that the obvious consequences of their actions are the results they desired when they acted, and I don’t waste my time trying to figure out why.

What does this have to do with anything?

A twitter acquaintance plaintively asks, as so many are now beginning to do, why his government has just destroyed over 100,000 businesses that will not re-open as the lockdown ends, for no reason at all?

I tell him this:

More pertinent are two facts that the people making government policy understand very well, and that we must also understand if there is to be any chance of counteracting them:

1. They have just shown that they CAN destroy the global economy, for no reason at all. They have the power and (mostly) the people’s permission.

2. That have just shown that they WILL destroy the global economy, for no reason at all.

Learn.

Amy
Amy
20 days ago

73% of Brits think limiting the spread of C-19 is more of a priority than the economy……egad! They must feel awfully secure in their jobs.

Thanks for posting the Kevin James video Toby. Now I’m going to find me the most pro lockdown place on the internet, post the video link there, and then wait for the inevitable meltdown from the lockdown droids. Yes I know it’s immature trolling, but God, I could do with the laugh.

reyfrfgveyrbgygrbygryb
reyfrfgveyrbgygrbygryb
20 days ago
Reply to  Amy

It isn’t trolling if just one of the zealots can be brought round to reasoning by your actions.

Bella Donna
Bella Donna
19 days ago
Reply to  Amy

I’d take everything the polls say with a large pinch of salt. Any government that can do what they have done to our lifestyles and country’s economy are capable of anything! Yeh even manipulating polls!

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
19 days ago
Reply to  Amy

Really? Apart from being awfully job secure they must have a really huge nest egg stashed away and no rent or mortgage to worry so yeah, they can afford to think that limiting the spread of this virus is more important than the economy

However as Bella Donna says I will take those polls with a pinch of salt. They must have used only a small sample, people can lie in surveys and the results can be doctored to fit agendas.

Csaba
Csaba
20 days ago

As I see, the coronavirus could have been anything else as well. It was just the manifestation of the problem laying in the social media-driven societies and a failed democracy.
Democracies, where the politicians were the leader of their country, did much better and will come out from this situation with significantly less damage. On the contrary, globally, most of the politicians were led by their nations and not on the other way around. They just did what the actual polls said about the will of the majority of the population. I have a slight feeling that this technic won’t work well when they need to introduce tax increases and financial restrictions.
The other contributor is and was social media. In an ideal world, social media could be a great representation of a perfect democracy, but this would be a false hope. As all of these media are run by private companies whose first and most important goal is money-making. I think we cannot blame them for that. However, I’m sure you have noticed this typical movement that people do with their fingers when they scroll down or up on these social media websites. For me, this movement represents the real problem of our world today. Can you see it? People will only read anything that grabs their attention in 3 seconds maximum. So these companies will priorities the news and type of story that brings more view for them. And people only read these pages in our modern world as they don’t have even more time to do anything else as they spent almost all of their spare time on these pages. Eventually, people stop reading anything that boring and dry, which is very said because usually, the reality is less exciting and thrilling than the artificial world. I see it as an addiction. Of course, it is not the responsibility of anybody else but the individuals themselves. Nonetheless, this is a severe problem in the world today.
These people connected to social media on this level are not different from people in the fantasy world of the well known Matrix movies. They are fed with “things” that makes most of the money not that they should know to be able to make serious real life decisions and take responsible steps.
I’m so happy that I found this website and small community who, obviously, read and think and use their brain and common sense. I hope we can expand this further and open more and more eyes.

Edna
Edna
19 days ago
Reply to  Csaba

Very well said!

Peter Thompson
Peter Thompson
20 days ago

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-52686325

I read this article with incredulity as it implies another medic died of coronavirus .
The poor chap had a dissecting aortic aneurysm which in laymens terms mean your major blood vessel from your heart
just burst . As even the most simple of folks would understand it has a huge mortality. If you can add covid 19 to the death certificate well why not ?

Sally
Sally
20 days ago
Reply to  Peter Thompson

“died after testing positive”

Here we go again. Will they ever sort out who’s really died FROM this virus? The IFR would be even lower.

coalencanth12
coalencanth12
20 days ago
Reply to  Peter Thompson

I agree, most unfortunate but could happen to anyone of similar age. As you say this is one of them sinister black swans we fall face. The fact he had the ‘rona is immaterial.

ianp
ianp
20 days ago
Reply to  Peter Thompson

Beware of being manipulated. MSM are now goading the normal people, that’s for sure. Setting it all up

The jokes about man run over by bus and died of Corona will be going around soon

Lms2
Lms2
19 days ago
Reply to  ianp

Man Eaten By Shark Dies Of Corona virus

That sort of thing???

Schrodinger
19 days ago
Reply to  Peter Thompson

I have an aortic aneurysm and a bicuspid valve that will require surgery – my last checkup in February recommended another CT scan to check measurements. Subsequent appointment for it then cancelled and no sign of when it will be. I could become collateral damage myself!

SweetBabyCheeses
SweetBabyCheeses
19 days ago
Reply to  Schrodinger

Sorry to hear that. I sincerely hope that’s not the case. I think if I was in a situation such as yours I’d implode from my own feelings of frustration/anxiety/injustice about it. This complete and utter disregard for the ongoing health concerns of the majority of the population for the sake of prioritising just this one virus is bonkers.
I wonder if any NHS trusts will have to pay compensation in the future to people who have suffered as a result of cancelled procedures.

Lms2
Lms2
19 days ago
Reply to  Schrodinger

Time to chase it up. Don’t leave it, and don’t let them fob you off. You could consider saying that your family could sue for medical negligence if you’re not treated urgently.

coalencanth12
coalencanth12
20 days ago

I’ve found out one of my PhD students is an anti-lockdowner and has been brazenly going against the holy teachings of St’s Boris, Dorries and Raab. This is a proud moment, and to be fair of all my students, it’s the one I expected. This one has also reached their own conclusions on the words of the False Prophet, Ferguson and the Image of the Beast, Hancock.

Very_Irritated
Very_Irritated
20 days ago
Reply to  coalencanth12

What subject discipline are you and your recent convert in? Given your name I’m guessing palaeontology, after the fish found as a “living fossil”? As a PhD student myself who is damn pissed off at the lockdown lunacy its nice to know there are others out there, can’t help but wonder how similar their field is to my own.

coalencanth12
coalencanth12
19 days ago
Reply to  Very_Irritated

Biophysics/structural biology, although I’m a chemist by training!

RDawg
RDawg
20 days ago

Really tempted to go to the protests in Hyde Park BUT I’m worried they might attract the wrong crowd. E.g. anti-5G peeps, far right EDL type folk and those just wanting to start a bit of a riot.

I attended the 2010 anti student fee hike protest in London. Started off brilliantly but then a load of idiots turned up and undertook a mass vandalism. Such a shame.

If there is any negativity, the media will use it to discredit anti-lockdown campaigners and could be v damaging to our plight. Thoughts?

Farinances
Farinances
20 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

The right crowd will always outnumber the wrong crowd 😊

ianp
ianp
20 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

Sure will, unfortunately. You don’t want to be in a crowd with a bunch of EDL knobs. Manna from heaven for the guardianistas.

I just think you go about your normal life. I am finding that a head nod and smile let’s people know you are not one of the fear infected.

This will continue to ease, no fear about that, it will take a long time and far too much money 🙁

RDawg
RDawg
20 days ago
Reply to  ianp

Sadly I think the U.K. will be the last country in Europe to ease up the restrictions. It’s really got me down over the past few weeks. Mental health has taken a battering. But I expect if I am feeling like this, we all are right? 😔

Gillian
Gillian
20 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

Know how you are feeling, Mr Dawg. But you have written some wonderfully positive things on here which I’m sure have helped many readers through dark moments. Your post about all of us being at a NYE party on 31 December 2020 and seeing the year out at 2359 hours with the thought “Thank God that’s over” saw me through a particularly bad day. Keep on keeping on!

RDawg
RDawg
19 days ago
Reply to  Gillian

Thanks Gillian I’m glad that was helpful. I still believe that you know. Within six months I truly believe life will be at least 90% back to normal. And by that I mean the OLD normal. 😉

Mark
Mark
19 days ago
Reply to  RDawg

Should go anyway, can always leave if you don’t like the vibe. I imagine there will be some EDL etc people there. Credit to them for opposing this, imo, but I don’t have any particular problem with the fringe nativist parties even if I disagree with them on some of their views and attitudes. No worse than the socialist worker types on the other side. But I suspect the crowd might be more hippy trippy types. Hopefully numbers will be big enough to dilute the fringes, but if not well it’s still better than no resistance at all.

bluefreddy
bluefreddy
19 days ago
Reply to  Mark

Yes, if you can get there, just turn up and see what it’s like. If you don’t like the look of it you can leave. No-one seems to know who’s behind it, but the fact that they say bring some food and music bodes well.

Lms2
Lms2
19 days ago
Reply to  Mark

EDL weren’t far right when they got started, but soon were infiltrated.
Are they even still going? I really can’t see them turning up to that kind of protest. The main problem will be the antifa types, who turn up to protest the non-existent “far right” at any opportunity.

ianp
ianp
20 days ago

This will be a slow descent down the hill for sure. Governments have all locked themselves in, but just be thankful there is no compulsory mask rule in the Uk, the ultimate subjugation symbol in my eyes. If a shop demands you to wear one to go in, boycott it.

News from corporate world today, during the health and safety briefing section, was that ‘coronaphobia’ was now a recognised condition. Lol! But progress nonetheless. And no mention of ‘new normal’ either

I like to think it was thanks to me letting rip (anonymously of course) during an earlier meeting this week when it was said right at the beginning of the call that they didn’t know what Boris’s message meant.

So I let em know, as did dozens of others I hope.

Keep spreading to word to those too worried to speak out, and this ridiculousness will hopefully end and we see more of what the endgame is, and I assure you it’s not about a bloody virus.

CarrieAH
CarrieAH
19 days ago
Reply to  ianp

I won’t go in any shop that has a mask requirement or marks on the floor to stand behind or even a one way system with staff telling you to move on if you pause to decide what you want to buy. I now write – proper letter – and tell them so. I don’t mind a hand sanitizer at the door because that’s not intrusive and I can choose whether to use it or not.

BobT
BobT
20 days ago

Apologies for the rant but I have had a couple of drinks.

I have never posted anything on a forum until a few days ago. I was angry enough that I had to express myself somehow and this forum allowed me to do so for which I am grateful.

A few days ago I was angry, now I am livid. I am not a natural writer but I am a numbers person and the numbers just do not make sense. I have tried to discuss this with friends and family but everyone I speak to are hypnotised by the false information being spewed out by the media and the politicians.

The numbers tell me that, yes, there is a spike in the expected annual recorded deaths but it is very small in the great scheme of things. I have said before that in the UK 66 million plus or (99.95%) of people have NOT died from this fucking virus but they are paying the price. (I am not making up figures here).

Worse, for me, is that the influence of the nutty decisions taken by the UK government are not lmited to the UK. Srange as it may seem the UK is still respected worldwide for their system of government and its ability to make sensible decisions. Well, that seems to be no longer true.

While you guys have been sitting around clapping and being paid for not working, the economy of my little Caribbean country has been fucked by the decisions taken. I have wriitten on this blog before of the effects, but take it from me that our airports and sea ports, hotels and most businesses are closed until a time that we cannot determine and almost everyone is out of work, soon to be impoverished. No money, no furlough scheme, nada, nothing, the square root of fuck all.

Most of what I see on this blog are people pushing back on the restrictions put in place, social distancing, mask wearing, etc etc. which needs to be done and is honourable but the time has come to consider the global effects of this. I talk about my little island but the rest of the world is also dependent on the Western world’s economies being successful. Of course this is because, through Colonialism , they have secured the minerals and raw materials and cheap labour to build their luxurious economies at the expense of others but until now that was OK because everyone’s standard of living was improving.

Imagine now (and I do not think I am eggagerating) that if the Western economies collapse because of this, not only will the West’s standard of living drop but the associated econonies will collapse and the people will be impoverished. This of couse will reflect back and amplify the collapse of the Western economies. We are all interrelated.

This situation is very very serious and nobody seems to be paying attention.

South Coast Worker
South Coast Worker
19 days ago
Reply to  BobT

Plenty of people are paying attention but they get zero platform on the M5M. Your point has been explored, with studies suggesting 10million will starve in developing countries. Again no coverage.

Lms2
Lms2
19 days ago

More than ten million. Could be in the hundreds of millions.

“The United Nations World Food Programme, or the WFP, states that by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation — double last year’s figures. According to WFP director David Beasley on April 21: “We could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries. … There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself” (italics added).

That would be enough to characterize the worldwide lockdown as a deathly error. But there is much more. If global GDP declines by 5%, another 147 million people could be plunged into extreme poverty, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute.”
https://www.dennisprager.com/column/the-worldwide-lockdown-may-be-the-greatest-mistake-in-history/

Mark
Mark
19 days ago
Reply to  BobT

You are absolutely right to be angry and there are a fair few who share this recognition of just how disproportionate and inappropriate this fear-based response has been.

If nothing else it should be a wake up call for those who are aware of this disaster, of the profound dysfunctionalities in our political and media systems, and in aspects of our core culture. We seem unable to sustain rational analysis in the face of emotional response and manipulative emotive arguments.

Further this is, to a surprising degree, a global phenomenon,when I would have expected it to be mostly a consequence of American cultural influence (the worst aspects of Hollywood/East Coast American culture – shallow sentimentality and undisciplined emotional immaturity). Perhaps reflecting the surprising degree to which elements of American culture has been disseminated worldwide (at least amongst elites) via the Hollywood and global news and social media operations. Most likely other things are at work alongside that.

FiFi Trixabelle
FiFi Trixabelle
19 days ago
Reply to  BobT

BobT – thank you for this post. It’s a sobering reminder to us all and as I sit here this morning despairing at what we are doing in the UK, your post has resonated with me hugely. I’m so frustrated and getting angrier by the day, but my primary focus has been on what I know and see here. I cannot even begin to imagine what it must be like where you are and the ridiculous postering going on in the UK re social distancing, mask wearing etc seems so inconsequential. We need to get your message out. Throughout all of this it has felt that the worlds nations have taken a view of ‘Everyman for himself’ with a complete lack of coordination. We are, as you say, all interlinked and connected – I’m ashamed of our actions and the implications those actions are having on a global basis.

bluefreddy
bluefreddy
19 days ago
Reply to  BobT

BobT, I have been desperately anxious and livid about this from day 1. I wrote to the Prime Minister about it in the first week. I have written to my friends ridiculously locked down on small islands where the risk of death from Covid-19 is relatively tiny, and apologised for the terrible example our government has set. They don’t really engage: they seem to be as brainwashed as everyone else. Meanwhile the wealthy lockdown left bleat endlessly about how terrible it is if even one 89 year old with dementia dies, ignoring the stories from the IFO that 250 million people may starve, and from unicef that 2 million children may die as a result of these lockdowns. The disconnect between the belief in their own virtue and their utter inability to understand the devastation this situation is causing is beyond my understanding. They are being paid, enjoying an easy life, “saving lives”: what’s not to love?

Awkward Git
Awkward Git
19 days ago
Reply to  BobT

No need to apologise, I like a good rant now and again as well. Legion on underdogsbiteupwards lets you post them as well as he enjoys them himself.

It stops me buying a 2.5 m stick, marking it as 2m then going round hitting the idiot believer sheeple then screaming “you are too close” at them.

Chris John
Chris John
19 days ago
Reply to  Awkward Git

Buy a 6ft sjambok and beat them. Beat some sense into them!

Awkward Git
Awkward Git
19 days ago
Reply to  BobT

Which little Caribbean island? I like nearly all of them except Dominican Republic (Haiti half doesn’t count as it’s doomed after the Clinton’s helped it).

As soon a work picks up and I get money again my wife and I will be back in that sunny little piece of the world.

Lms2
Lms2
19 days ago
Reply to  BobT

https://www.tfp.org/the-most-monumental-social-engineering-and-ideological-transshipment-effort-in-history/
The Most Monumental Social Engineering and Ideological Transshipment Effort in History
April 26th 2020

“The global result will be an exponential increase in extreme poverty. “I see no historical equivalent to the threat that COVID-19 poses to the most vulnerable populations,” said Robin Guittard, Oxfam campaign manager in France.29 In a study released on April 8, researchers at King’s College London and the National University of Australia predict that the pandemic could bring extreme poverty to half a billion of the planet’s inhabitants, destroying the progress made in the past three decades.30

The Increase in Deaths From Hunger in Poor Countries Will Be Much Greater Than That of COVID-19 Victims
The World Food Program predicts that the loss of tourism revenues, the decrease in remittances and travel and other restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic will double the number of poor people suffering from acute hunger, adding 130 million to the approximately 135 million already existing in that category. “‘COVID-19 is potentially catastrophic for millions who are already hanging by a thread,’ said Arif Husain, chief economist and director of research, assessment, and monitoring at the World Food Programme (WFP).”32 David Beasly, WFP Executive Director, exclaimed in an interview with The Guardian: “Now, my goodness, this is a perfect storm. We are looking at widespread famines of biblical proportions. ”

https://m.youtube.com/watchv=uaswsqtjarm
Cruise Ships Banned For Two Years
“Published on 14 May 2020
Cruise Ships Banned For Two Years. That’s right a popular cruise stop off the coast of Africa has decided to ban cruise ships for two years. While at the same time opening up their International Airport to Tourists.”

You’re right to be furious and concerned about the future. The leaders of the island group that has just banned cruise ships says that the inhabitants there will have to learn to be more innovative to survive the loss of income from cruise ship tourism for the next two years.
At least one small boat tour operator there, who gets 80-90% of his business from cruise passengers, says that all the innovation in the world won’t make up for the loss of business.
This will be repeated the world over, and the fallout is going to far, far worse than this virus outbreak.

As Denis Prager says, this could be the biggest mistake in history:
https://www.dennisprager.com/column/the-worldwide-lockdown-may-be-the-greatest-mistake-in-history/

nonewnormal
nonewnormal
19 days ago

Robert O Young DSc, PhD: ‘That is why years ago I offered any scientist in the World a finder’s fee of 5 million US dollars if they could prove the existence of the HIV virus using Koch’s postulates. It has now been over 20 years and I am still waiting’ https://www.drrobertyoung.com/post/dismantling-the-viral-theory
Dr. Andrew Kaufman: ‘Evidence (or Not) that Viruses Cause Disease or The Rooster in the River of Rats’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sU7HHhPYJkI
*****A NEW $$,$$$,$$$ REWARD CHALLENGE NEEDED FOR ISOLATING THIS COVID-19 VIRUS*****

Tim Bidie
Tim Bidie
19 days ago

Over 10,000 people have been killed by an overreaction to a minor common cold coronavirus epidemic; a major humanitarian disaster by any standards.

A significant proportion of the somewhat higher seasonal mortality has derived directly from government policies to move the elderly and infirm out of hospitals to make way for Covid 19 patients who never showed up.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931

I cannot see how any Prime Minister or government can survive that.

But we live in unusual times.

Tyneside Tigress
Tyneside Tigress
19 days ago
Reply to  Tim Bidie

A root and branch inquiry of the NHS is required, to include medical practices. As I know from my own experience as someone who had major medical interventions in my 30s, once doctors start along a certain treatment strategy, they rarely turn back. It is well intentioned, but sometimes doctors need to think outside the box, but that is not what their training teaches them. It must have been pretty obvious quite early on that the order to stay at home and self isolate for 7-14 days was the wrong strategy for a significant minority of people. At day 7, if you have not recovered appreciably, waiting the extra two or three days before calling for urgent medical treatment means you are more or less dead on arrival at hospital. At that point, if you are intubated, the odds of death are extreme. Evidence from New York emerged quite early that intubation was the wrong treatment option. How many lives might have been saved (over and above the poor souls who were released to care homes) had the advice not been to ‘stay at home’ even when very ill and just keep calling 111, and had there not been the obsession with mechanical ventilators and intubation.

Jonathan Smith
Jonathan Smith
19 days ago

I’ve had the misfortune to be tangled up in the NHS machine for the past 2.5 years now. Doctor’s don’t really make free decisions any more. Treatments are often based on a limited set the hospital provides and even then they are governed by flow-charted protocols. Fortunately, I have the time, energy and wherewithal to push back, find the treatments I want and then fight the battle to get them. Needless to say I don’t do the Thursday night seal performance.

Lms2
Lms2
19 days ago
Reply to  Jonathan Smith

Don’t many of the drug protocols come from NICE? And many procedures, treatment protocols are laid down. In some cases, it’s stopped malpractice, but in others, it’s reduced discretion.

Victoria
Victoria
19 days ago

Agree.Throwing a lot taxpayers money into a big black hole. We deserve better treatment.

kh1485
kh1485
19 days ago
Reply to  Victoria

I agree. Sadly though, the public has been lead to believe that prescription drugs are a panacea for all ills. They feel short-changed if they come out of the doctor’s surgery without a prescription. I feel the exact opposite: if I can do something for myself without recourse to some sort of chemical intervention, then I will. Furthermore, people take little or no notice of the myriad side-effects which, although they are in tiny print – sort of suggesting that they are really nothing to worry about – can have devastating consequences. And what’s more, the pracitce of polypharmacy, especially in the elderly, is very worrying.

Lms2
Lms2
19 days ago
Reply to  Tim Bidie

I would suggest that Public Health England, plus the numerous, very well-remunerated hospital administrators, Chief Executives, etc, anyone party to this policy should face a full criminal enquiry.

wendyk
wendyk
19 days ago

To pick up on the withdrawal of essential dental services, which has been one of my main concerns since this lunacy started: A couple of days ago, I stopped to speak to the nice lady in charge of the sanitising station in our supermarket.

Her husband has lost a front tooth in his upper jaw and now refuses to leave the house. Thus his physical condition is being steadily aggravated by rapidly growing anxiety and distress.

This couple have made numerous calls to 111, only to be told that they should seek referral to a local hub, which are limited to performing extractions , so no point.

This is being replicated across the UK.

Dentistry is an essential service and rates of dental infections, loss of teeth and associated co morbidities will undoubtedly increase.

My excellent dentist has told me in the past about the dreadful oral decay he has seen while on emergency duties at local hospitals; also that rates of decay are rapidly rising amongst young children.

Another senior dentists and oral surgeon and her daughter,who is a dental nurse, have told me that they see no hope of normal services resuming in the near future because of the panic about aerosols and lack of PPE.

Too many dentists have been furloughed and many practices now face an uncertain future.

When they eventually do reopen, massively long waiting lists will ensue, as decisions are taken about whom to treat first, how to operate mad distancing directives and how to operate the essential aerosol generating procedures.

Thus, we can expect dental decay to be added to an epidemic of mental illness, missed cancer tests and treatment, delayed operations and missed eye tests-(which also detect many potentially serious conditions).

Is this really worth it?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/16/uk-lockdown-causing-serious-mental-illness-in-first-time-patients

https://bda.org/advice/Coronavirus/Pages/latest-updates.aspx

sunchap
sunchap
19 days ago
Reply to  wendyk

In NZ we have escaped lockdown now and my mental health has picked up. Hold on Brits. The first coffee will be good.

In NZ it was summer so no one died. We have just had mass hysteria, which is embarrassing.

What confuses me is this; SARS died out partly as it did not mutate whereas this novel corona virus seems to be mutating – does this mean it will probably come back?

Carrie
Carrie
19 days ago
Reply to  sunchap

Watch the excellent interview with Professor Dolores Cahill on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=Avc6_ftzk3w&app=desktop It’s called ‘Debunking the narrative’.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
19 days ago
Reply to  wendyk

I came across something similar where many dentists are raising the alarm over dental health especially those who require operations and such. And I can imagine that the lockdown is also wreaking havoc with many people’s teeth.

I required deep cleaning early this year and it was fortunate that I was able to complete the treatment before the lockdown (the dentist was leaving anyway to join her husband who was being posted abroad). The excellent dentist who did my cleaning has said that more and more people have needed advanced periodontal treatment and I can imagine that this trend will accelerate when this is all over.

wendyk
wendyk
19 days ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

Absolutely; gum disease will become increasingly common, and it can cause tooth loss.

FiFi Trixabelle
FiFi Trixabelle
19 days ago
Reply to  wendyk

It’s ridiculous. The pain some people must be in will be horrendous and the long term implications on dental health another public health disaster to add to the list.
As a family I have a daughter (21) with recurring toothache who has been told ‘just take painkillers and only call us back if it gets really unbearable’. A son (15) with braces which need attention and me (age not being revealed) with a brace that was due off at the start of lockdown. Wonder how many years I’ll be sporting this look?!!

wendyk
wendyk
19 days ago

Dreadful! And this will undoubtedly affect people’s future prospects: imagine returning to work or study-should this ever be allowed!-with rageing tooth ache, gum disease or sever pain,or abscess.
This is unacceptable.

Having suffered,many years ago, from dental abscesses, I know that urgent treatment is necessary.