Is the NHS in Danger of Being Overwhelmed?
Just how great a risk is there of the NHS being overwhelmed? We’re constantly being told by Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock and others that unless we observe the traffic light restrictions in our area, we will witness the kind of scenes we saw in Lombardy back in March, with Covid patients dying in hospital corridors. But is that true? Not according to my friend who’s worked as an NHS doctor for the past 30 years. Here is his guest post for today’s Lockdown Sceptics.
The last three weeks have seen much speculation about the numbers of COVID patients in intensive care units, particularly in the North West and London. Further local lockdowns have been enforced by the Government in the North West, London and yesterday in the Midlands on the grounds that the NHS risks being overwhelmed. But how close is the system to being swamped, and what can we reasonably conclude from publicly available information?
NHS data released to the public to date is incomplete and usually a week in arrears. Carl Heneghan and Tom Jefferson point out in their recent Spectator article that this crisis has been characterised by sequential data inadequacy from the Government’s scientific advisors, Public Health England and the NHS. As they say “a look back at the figures issued shows that the track record, eventually validated against the facts, is abysmal. This is important because major decisions continue to be taken on the strength of such data”.
Some of these mistakes relate to crass errors of basic management, others more disturbing over-exaggeration or over-extrapolation of the size of the threats to public health. It is known that more granular data exist – for instance around the cause of death statistics and in-hospital Covid infection rates. But these figures are not being released to the public by the NHS despite requests for more transparency – seemingly at odds with Freedom of Information obligations.
The data we do have throw up some interesting patterns.
Firstly, the rate of change of numbers of patients in ICU appears to be levelling off in all regions other than the North West up to October 20th (Graph 1). What happened after that we are not permitted to know.
In comparison with the spring surge of Covid, the curves seem very different, especially in London (Graphs 2 and 3). It is clear that the rate of increase in the autumn is nowhere near as steep as in the spring. Further, the number of patients in London ICU beds is not out of proportion to what one would generally expect from respiratory infections at this time of year.
The data curves from the North West look different to London (Graphs 4 and 5). Again, the ICU patients track the ward inpatients, but the slope of the graphs is steeper in the autumn. Why the difference? Broadly, there are two schools of thought. The first maintains that the London population has a higher immunity or resistance to COVID-19 after having been hit harder in the spring. The North West had a surge in the spring too, but national lockdown occurred before the Northern surge was fully mature, hence there may currently be more susceptible people in the North West for the virus to infect than there are in London. Serology data on antibody levels suggests that London has a significantly higher proportion of people with antibodies than the rest of the UK (approx. 15 – 20%). It is reasonable to assume that London also has a higher level of people with T-cell immunity on the basis of greater previous viral exposure.
The other school of thought holds that there is no difference in the resistance profiles between the London and North Western populations, and that the difference in hospitalisation rates is due to poor social distancing habits in the North West and more working from home in the London population. This view inclines to the belief that eventually the ‘second wave’ will travel from the North to London with a lag time of about two weeks.
A deeper analysis of the data suggests this is unlikely to be the case. There is a clear inflection point in the North West where ICU cases of Covid start to rise on or around September 22nd (Graph 6). ICU data by individual hospital can be difficult to interpret as intensive care units usually operate as a network involving several hospitals. In a surge crisis, the larger inner-city hospitals usually receive patients from smaller peripheral units, increasing their apparent numbers accordingly. In the North West, almost all the hospitals saw a sudden increase in ICU cases after September 22nd.
The inflection point in the London figures is different and the distribution of cases between trusts is also very different (Graph 7). Overall numbers are substantially lower than in the North West – a region of roughly comparable population. In London, ICU cases started to rise on September 20th – so, rather than being two weeks behind the North West, London may be seeing a ‘second wave’ at roughly the same time. Unlike the North West, where cases were spread equally between hospitals, cases in London were concentrated in the East of the City, with Barking and St Barts seeing the majority of cases. Hospitals which had been seriously stretched in April, such as Lewisham, Guys and St Thomas’s, the Whittington, St Georges and Northwick Park, have so far not seen many Covid patients, lending support to the enhanced resistance theory.
So what does all this mean? The fact that respiratory infections increase in autumn is not a surprise – the annual winter beds crisis has been a constant feature of my three decades in medicine and cancellation of routine surgical work due to winter pressures is commonplace. Certainly, it is very difficult at the moment for hospital staff in the North West – having been in the eye of the storm last time round, I have the utmost sympathy for them. However, the Mayor of Manchester and the head of the regional ICU network in the North West have both stated on the record that the healthcare system can cope with the surge. Meanwhile in London, Covid patients occupy 10% of ICU beds – completely in line with normal winter pressures at this time of year.
An objective reading of the available data does not currently support the hypothesis that the NHS is in imminent danger of being over-run. The argument from ‘circuit breaker’ advocates is that winter pressures may increase in the coming weeks and create further stress on the system – and that may come to pass, but should Covid admissions or influenza cases increase, there are several measures hospitals can take to manage the problem, such as cancellation of elective work, and use of overspill facilities constructed in haste and at substantial expense in the spring, before resorting to mass incarceration of the public and destruction of viable businesses.
So why the Tier 3 lockdowns in the North and now the Midlands?
Governmental restrictions of civil liberties must be a last resort in a democratic society. To justify such radical measures, both the Government, their scientific advisors and the NHS must be more honest and transparent with the public in respect of the data driving lockdown decisions. Simply asking the population to trust the experts is insufficient, particularly when the experts have clearly been so seriously in error in recent months.
Failure to provide sufficient evidence to justify unprecedented curbs on citizens’ rights suggests arbitrary deprivations of civil liberty are being enforced for political reasons rather than medical necessity.
Trust and confidence are essential for the operation of a modern liberal democracy. Our current leadership is rapidly running out of both.
50 Northern Tory MPs Demand Roadmap Out of Lockdown
Fifty Northern MPs have demanded a roadmap out of lockdown as a further million people have been told they’ll be placed under the most severe restrictions from Thursday, with the addition of Nottingham, Broxtowe and Warrington to Tier 3. The Mail has more.
A letter to Boris Johnson from the Northern Research Group – a newly-launched alliance of Tory MPs led by ex-Northern Powerhouse minister Jake Berry – outlines the group’s demands, which include a tailored economic recovery plan for the north.
Mr Berry says that the virus could widen the North-South divide and “send the North into reverse”. His group is now calling for Mr Johnson to “level-up the North”, something the PM claimed he would do following sweeping Conservative gains in the region in the General Election.
It comes as around eight million people in England face living under the toughest COVID-19 restrictions by the end of the week after officials confirmed four separate parts of Nottinghamshire will be thrust into a Tier 3 lockdown from midnight on Wednesday, following three days of crunch talks with the Government.
Officials have agreed to adopt the draconian measures in Nottingham City, Gedling, Broxtowe and Rushcliffe in an attempt to drive down transmission. It will mean all pubs and bars have to close unless they serve meals, while people are banned from mixing with anyone they don’t live with indoors or in private gardens and beer gardens.
MPs from the Northern Research Group describe how the region has been hit with harsh local restrictions and local economies will continue to suffer, with many losing their jobs and facing the prospect of closing down their businesses.
MP for Rossendale and Darwen, Mr Berry, said: “The virus has exposed in sharp relief the deep structural and systemic disadvantage faced by our communities and it threatens to continue to increase the disparity between the North and South still further.
“Our constituents have been some of the hardest hit by this virus with many losing jobs, businesses, and livelihoods. Never has there been a more pertinent and urgent political and economic case to support people living in the North.
“However, instead of moving forwards on our shared ambitions, the cost of Covid and the virus itself threatens to send the North into reverse.”
Ironically, Nottingham has been placed in Tier 3 in spite of the fact that daily new cases are falling. Department of Health statistics show that the number of COVID-19 cases diagnosed in Nottingham each day has been dropping since the start of the month.
Over the weekend, South Yorkshire became the latest region to fall under the highest tier of controls, following Liverpool City Region, Greater Manchester and Lancashire. If you add the areas announced yesterday, a total of eight million people will be living in a Tier 3 area, which means no household mixing – indoors or out – pubs closing unless they serve food, and locals advised only to leave their areas for essential travel such as work, education or health, and they must return before the end of the day.
Stop Press: ITV reports that drive-by testing facilities across the UK’s hotspot areas are well below capacity, with very few people showing up for tests.
Generation Covid
Panorama on the BBC last night documented the damage the lockdown and ongoing restrictions are doing to young people. An accompanying article on BBC News summarised the main points.
Young people, particularly those from deprived backgrounds, have had their earnings and job prospects hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic, adding to fears for the long-term impact on their futures.
BBC Panorama found people aged 16-25 were more than twice as likely as older workers to have lost their job, while six in 10 saw their earnings fall, according to new research.
It also highlighted the impact of school closures on young people and added to growing evidence that students from poorer backgrounds have fallen behind their more privileged peers.
A quarter of pupils – some 2.5 million children – had no schooling or tutoring during lockdown, the survey by the London School of Economics (LSE) suggests.
But, the study adds, nearly three quarters of private school pupils had full days of teaching (74%) – almost twice the proportion of state school pupils (38%).The study’s authors warn it could lead to poorer pupils suffering “permanent ‘educational scarring'” when it comes to key academic milestones such as exams and securing a university place.
One of the most moving stories featured on the programme was that of Rasheed Graham, a 23 year-old from north-west London who’d secured a place on a fully-funded pilot’s training course before the coronavirus outbreak brought it to a halt.
Rasheed was told the flying school was closing and the airline could not afford to fund the training anymore.
In order to continue, he needs to find £60,000 to cover the costs.
“This is why the cadetship is worth its weight in gold, because if you don’t come from wealth or money, it gives you the opportunity to pursue a career as a pilot if you didn’t have the means before,” he told Panorama.
Rasheed is trying to crowd fund the money to pay for his course and has raised almost £22,000 so far.
“This could work out or it couldn’t. I’ve actually accepted both eventualities,” he says. “But I’d rather look back and realise that I’d tried to do something to return to flight training than sit back, and let the opportunity go by.”
You can contribute to Rasheed’s GoFundMe here – although it looks like he’s already raised the £60,000 he needs.
You can watch the programme here.
Lionel Shriver Speaks Truth to Power
I interviewed arch-sceptic Lionel Shriver for the Quillette podcast on Friday. She was predictably marvellous. As she said in the course of the interview, this crisis has sorted out the men from the boys when it comes to distinguished scientists, celebrated intellectuals and literary celebrities – with the vast majority proving bitterly disappointing. But a handful of independent-minded giants have emerged and Shriver is among the most impressive. Definitely worth listening to.
Stop Press: Stacey Rudin has written another terrific post for the American Institute For Economic Research, this time arguing that where you stand on the lockdowns is a test of character. She says the sceptics deserve the public’s trust because they have the least to gain from their position.
If COVID-19 is Not a High Consequence Infectious Disease, Why Lockdown?
Martin Neil, Professor of Computer Science and Statistics, School of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Queen Mary University of London, has done a twitter thread posing an interesting question. Reprinted below.
- On 19th March the UK 4 nations public health HCID group made a decision that COVID-19 is NOT a high consequence infectious disease (HCID):
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid - Note this important statement: “The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.”
- In the UK an HCID is defined as an acute infectious disease, with high case-fatality rate requires an enhanced individual, population and system response.
- Professor Neil Ferguson is a member of The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP).
https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/advisory-committee-on-dangerous-pathogens - I understand the committee reached the UNANIMOUS view, that COVID-19 is NOT a HCID, at a meeting on 13th March 2020.
- Despite this the UK SAGE group published a document on 14th March recommending enhanced individual, population and system responses to COVID-19:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/update-from-sage-delay-phase-modelling - The SAGE group, Whitty and Vallance made this decision on 14th March – the day after the ACDP committee decision and five days before the HCID group’s decision.
- They therefore made this decision despite, and in contradiction to, official scientific advice.
- What happened between 13th and 14th March? Why did Ferguson, Vallance and Whitty change direction before the 4 nations HCID group made their decision on 19th March?
- Professor Neil Ferguson is a member of SAGE and a member of the ACDP. How can he make a decision one day and then contradict it the next?
Prof Neil has written for Lockdown Sceptics before about how most ‘positive’ cases are either asymptomatic carriers or false positives.
C.S. Lewis Could See Into the Future
The Price of Panic
Great new website collating the collateral damage of the lockdown under five different headings: Hunger and Poverty, Deaths from Other Diseases, Harm to Children, Anxiety, Depression and Suicides, and Oppression. Here’s an extract from the preamble:
The negative effects of lockdown are too often dismissed as small sacrifices, necessary to keep a highly deadly disease from spreading. These sacrifices are, in fact, neither necessary nor small, and the disease is only a threat to a minority of the population that can be protected without lockdowns. Sometimes, where major harms become hard to ignore, they are lamented as further damage caused by Covid, even though your panic-driven measures are to blame. This is an effort to bring focus to the magnitude of suffering taking place around us because of lockdowns.
Worth bookmarking.
Poetry Corner
A reader – Dylan Lovelock – has sent us a poem. I know how he feels.
No New Normal
I do not accept the new normal, I do not want a new normal thank you very much,
I’m quite happy with the old normal, I’m not a rabbit in a rabbit hutch
There is not a fox lurking around the corner, I’m not hiding in a chicken pen
I’m not masking my smile through fear or phobia, I will shake the hand of my good friend
I will walk freely wherever I choose to, that is why I bought these shoes new
I’m not residing in a prison cell, nor have I committed any crime
So do not expect that any time soon I’ll be doing any time
Please turn off the loathly TV and do not read the news
Unless of course you want to be misinformed and served up sour mistruths
Do not give up on your freedom, do not hand it to the machine
Do not let them take away your cash, this insidious agenda is entirely obscene
Liberty is a precious right for each and everyone
We must protect our way of life for our daughters and our sons
I am a human being, born free to live and breathe
This is not my new normal, I simply will not believe.
Spooky Parallels With Mad Cow Disease
We’re publishing an original piece today by Dr Janie Axelrad, a retired academic who wrote a book about Mad Cow Disease (BSE: A Disaster of Biblical Proportions Or a Disaster of British Science?). She sees uncanny similarities between that crisis and this. During that panic, the equivalent of SAGE was SEAC – the Spongiform Encephalopathy Advisory Committee. And, predictably, it massively over-reacted, got drunk on its own power and caused an enormous amount of needless economic damage. Here is an extract.
Once a course of action is established, original predictions become untestable, and mitigating actions can always explain the discrepancies between predicted and actual figures. The BSE crisis continued for years, and although it became increasingly clear that the dire predictions would not materialise, SEAC maintained enormous power over the narrative, the funding and the media. However, all good things must come to an end: case numbers refused to rise and the funding started drying up. In the midst of the BSE crisis I was asked to write a book for the Institute of Economic Affairs, in which I predicted that fewer than 200 CJD cases would be recorded. Later, in 2002, Neil Ferguson’s Imperial College team proclaimed that the 50,000 predicted deaths could be an underestimate. To date, the number of CJD cases is 178.
The course of that crisis has obvious parallels with the current COVID-19 pandemic response. The impression is that we are following the same handbook, albeit with a copy that is a little dog-eared. So when Ferguson predicts 500,000 deaths from COVID-19 if we ignore his advice, I suggest we should be a little sceptical. So far the UK mortality is around 45,000. Despite a total lockdown and numerous local restrictions, our death rate per million is still higher than that of Sweden, that has no such restrictions. Ten or 20 years in the future, the scientists and politicians responsible will be retired in the comfort of knowing that most people have forgotten their roles, just as happened with the BSE crisis.
We’ve added this piece to the right-hand menu in the section “How Have We Responded to Previous Pandemics?”, one of the strongest group of articles on Lockdown Sceptics.
Worth reading in full.
Our Finest Hour
A reader has adapted Churchill’s famous ‘finest hour’ speech so it applies to our current predicament. It required surprisingly few changes.
My fellow sceptics and I know that the Battle for Britain has now begun. Upon this battle depends the survival of civilisation and democracy. Upon it depends our own British way of life, and the long continuity of our culture, our institutions and our freedom. The whole fury and might of the enemy will soon be turned on us. He knows that he will have to break us and our spirit or lose his agenda. If we can stand up to him, we will be free, and all Europe may be free, and the life of the world may move forward into broad, sunlit uplands. But if we fail, then the whole free world, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age, made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted by the lights of perverted science. Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, remove this tinpot despot and his puppet master, and so bear ourselves that for the next thousand years, men will still say, “This was their finest hour.”
Et Tu, New Scientist?
A reader points out that it isn’t just Nature that has abandoned scientific rigour for woke dogma. New Scientist has also been captured.
The most recent issue highlights on the front cover – “The Herd Immunity Myth – why let it rip arguments are fatally flawed” . This article is totally unconvincing and describes herd immunity as “unscientific and irresponsible”. In addition, the leader calls herd immunity “bad science”. This approach is typical of many items published of late.
It is disappointing that a once interesting topical magazine is now so superficial and lacks balance.
A Retired Police Sergeant Writes…
I’ve had a lot of emails in response to my query about whether the Territorial Support Group has been recruiting EU nationals to duff up anti-lockdown protestors. Most have been a bit too speculative or conspiratorial to publish, but this one struck me as reliable.
I am a retired police sergeant and can confirm that the police have been recruiting EU nationals for quite a while. I was a Cheshire officer and, towards my retirement, came across a number of Polish officers which, to be fair, made a lot of sense given the significant Polish population in the county and, in my experience, their spoken English was perfectly acceptable although I can imagine quite a lot would have been lost in translation with our usual customers. The main problem was their written English which was, to be frank, incomprehensible. My last role in the police was to assess evidential files before they were sent to the CPS for authority to bring prosecutions and I found myself trying to decode witness statements and frequently having to request that that they were retaken by officers who could actually write in English. This was further complicated by the fact that a significant number of the British nationals were incapable of stringing a sentence together due to the lack of standards in recruitment.
So it’s perfectly possible that some members of the TSG are non-British passport holders if the police routinely recruit EU nationals to fill their ranks. Could that be why our correspondent who wrote about last Saturday’s demo found that many of the TSG officers spoke only very halting English?
Postcard From Argentina
We’ve been sent an excellent postcard form a social science professor in Argentina. He describes his country’s lockdown as the longest and most irrational quarantine on the planet. It sounds like a complete shitshow – even more bizarre and inexplicable than our own festival of incompetence. Here is an extract.
At one point, the city Government of Buenos Aires attempted to require elderly folks to call a hotline to get permission to leave their own house for any non-essential task, the idea being that some poor Government call centre employee would patronisingly explain to them all the risks (as if they had been living in some bubble or under a rock) and attempt to persuade them to stay at home. The most ridiculous thing? The elderly were expected to call and request permission to leave their home every time they needed to go out! And if they left their home without permission, they were threatened with – community service! (Presumably outside the home? One can only guess). The resulting outrage, not least from the elderly themselves, forced the city Government to backtrack rather quickly, not least because was no practical way to enforce this policy anyway.
Since I qualify as an “exempted worker” (which means I did not have to lock down, but I am not allowed to use public transport), I have been able to travel through the interior of the country for work-related reasons. In the countryside the picture looks different to the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area. Local mayors have often reacted to the pandemic like medieval peasants, blocking most access roads to their towns with earth or concrete barriers, and instituting nonsensical additional measures to try to keep the virus out of their communities.
The only consistent criterion for policy adoption and implementation seems to be “monkey see, monkey do”, with local leaders copying each others dumbest ideas without regard to any actual science or cost-benefit analysis. In most places I have been to, whenever you want to enter a town, you have to drive through a disinfection area that will spray the outside of your vehicle as you come in. I have repeatedly argued how ridiculous this is – after all, if someone were sick, the virus would be inside the car, and not stuck on the outside surfaces. Makes as much sense (none) as disinfecting shoe soles, or spraying disinfectant on outdoor sidewalks.
Worth reading in full.
Round-Up
- “Schoolchildren Seem Unlikely to Fuel Coronavirus Surges, Scientists Say” – Even the New York Times concedes children aren’t infectious
- “This Harvard Epidemiologist Is Very Popular on Twitter. But Does He Know What He’s Talking About?” – Entertaining take-down of a know-nothing Covid hysteric who styles himself a “Harvard epidemiologist”
- “The Impersonator: Eric Feigl-Ding, COVID-19, and an implicit far-left agenda” – And here’s Jordan Schachtel on the same fraudster, but more hard-hitting
- “The land where books are banned” – The Mail‘s Guy Adams pays a visit to locked down Wales and discovers that magazines are ‘essential’, while clothes aren’t
- “Why are alternative Covid strategies being dismissed without adequate debate?” – Good piece by David Yorath in Reaction
- “Journalist Darren Grimes files formal complaint over Scotland Yard’s handling of ‘race hate’ probe” – Darren, along with David Starkey and the Free Speech Union, has filed a complaint against the Metropolitan Police
- “Delta adds 460 people to no-fly list for refusing to wear masks” – Delta Airlines has added 460 people to its banned list because they won’t wear masks
- “Parents back head over ‘offensive word’ at black history assembly” – Parents of pupils at Benenden have questioned whether the headmistress needed to apologise “unreservedly” for using the word “negro” in a school assembly
- “No let-up in Covid restrictions, Nicola Sturgeon insists” – The shutdown of pubs and restaurants will persist indefinitely across much of Scotland as Nic Sturge-On said that there would be “no immediate change” when a new five-level system is introduced next week.
- “Millions of coronavirus tests are just costly overkill, says Chinese expert” – China’s top epidemiologist thinks mass testing is overrated, reports the Times
- “Second lockdown spells an unprecedented non-Covid health crisis” – State scientists tragically overlook the collateral deaths that will result from a tunnel-vision strategy, says Charles Levinson
- “Matt Hancock has one of the most crucial roles in Government… Boris Johnson’s whipping boy” – Michael Deacon, the Telegraph‘s Parliamentary sketch writer, skewers Hancock
- “We cannot sacrifice the future of the young to keep my generation safe” – Norman Tebbit says the forever lockdown is madness
- Chris Whitty Confession – A clip of Chris Whitty at the Downing St briefing on May 11th being remarkably sanguine about the danger posed by the virus
- “Nine in ten police forces haven’t fined anyone for breaking Covid face mask laws” – Good news in the Sun – just four police forces out of 40 have issued fines for not wearing masks
- “‘Remdesivir for COVID-19’ Study accidentally proved effectiveness of Hydroxychloroquine” – A study designed to test the effectiveness of Remdesivir has actually shown that Hydroxychloroquine is an effective treatment
- “All fun is tracked, traced and cancelled in our misconceived efforts to beat Covid” – Sean Walsh takes aim at the puritans in CapX
- “COVID-19 is destroying global freedom, and it may not rebound” – Dan Hannan in the Washington Examiner on the precious inheritance we’re squandering
- “Student, 22, fined £6k for breaking covid quarantine rules after she was caught eating at restaurant in Insta snap” – That’s one expensive meal
- “Escape from Lockdown” – Alex McCarron talks to Telegraph cartoonist and arch-sceptic Bob Moran for his podcast
- “On balance, a circuit-breaker lockdown doesn’t make sense” – Good piece in the Times by Professor Barry McCormick arguing that the number of QALYs saved by a ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown would be outweighed by the number of QALYs lost
- “School could face legal action after pupil is excluded for failing to wear face mask” – Camilla Turner reports on a miscarriage of justice at Brockhill Arts Performing Arts College in Kent
- Must-Read Twitter Thread by Alina Chan – This Twitter thread by a post-doc at MIT exposes some of the discrepancies and elisions in the early papers on the virus coming out of China. Draw your own conclusions
Love in the Time of Covid
We have created some Lockdown Sceptics Forums, including a dating forum called “Love in a Covid Climate” that has attracted a bit of attention. We have a team of moderators in place to remove spam and deal with the trolls, but sometimes it takes a little while so please bear with us. You have to register to use the Forums, but that should just be a one-time thing. Any problems, email the Lockdown Sceptics webmaster Ian Rons here.
Sharing stories: Some of you have asked how to link to particular stories on Lockdown Sceptics. The answer used to be to first click on “Latest News”, then click on the links that came up beside the headline of each story. But we’ve changed that so the link now comes up beside the headline whether you’ve clicked on “Latest News” or you’re just on the Lockdown Sceptics home page. Please do share the stories with your friends and on social media.
“Mask Exempt” Lanyards
We’ve created a one-stop shop down here for people who want to buy (or make) a “Mask Exempt” lanyard/card. You can print out and laminate a fairly standard one for free here and it has the advantage of not explicitly claiming you have a disability. But if you have no qualms about that (or you are disabled), you can buy a lanyard from Amazon saying you do have a disability/medical exemption here (takes a while to arrive). The Government has instructions on how to download an official “Mask Exempt” notice to put on your phone here. You can get a “Hidden Disability” tag from ebay here and an “exempt” card with lanyard for just £1.99 from Etsy here. And, finally, if you feel obliged to wear a mask but want to signal your disapproval of having to do so, you can get a “sexy world” mask with the Swedish flag on it here.
Don’t forget to sign the petition on the UK Government’s petitions website calling for an end to mandatory face masks in shops here.
A reader has started a website that contains some useful guidance about how you can claim legal exemption.
And here’s an excellent piece about the ineffectiveness of masks by a Roger W. Koops, who has a doctorate in organic chemistry.
Stop Press: The Swiss Doctor has translated the article in a Danish newspaper about the suppressed Danish mask study. Largest RCT on the effectiveness of masks ever carried out. Rejected by three top scientific journals so far.
The Great Barrington Declaration
The Great Barrington Declaration, a petition started by Professor Martin Kulldorff, Professor Sunetra Gupta and Professor Jay Bhattacharya calling for a strategy of “Focused Protection” (protect the elderly and the vulnerable and let everyone else get on with life), was launched last week and the lockdown zealots have been doing their best to discredit it. If you Googled it on Tuesday, the top hits were three smear pieces from the Guardian, including: “Herd immunity letter signed by fake experts including ‘Dr Johnny Bananas’.” (Freddie Sayers at UnHerd warned us about this hit job the day before it appeared.) On the bright side, Google UK has stopped shadow banning it, so the actual Declaration now tops the search results – and my Spectator piece about the attempt to suppress it is among the top hits – although discussion of it has been censored by Reddit. The reason the zealots hate it, of course, is that it gives the lie to their claim that “the science” only supports their strategy. These three scientists are every bit as eminent – more eminent – than the pro-lockdown fanatics so expect no let up in the attacks. (Wikipedia has also done a smear job.)
You can find it here. Please sign it. Now over 600,000 signatures.
Stop Press: The authors of the GDB have expanded the FAQs to deal with some of the arguments and smears that have been made against their proposal. Worth reading in full.
Judicial Reviews Against the Government
There are now so many JRs being brought against the Government and its ministers, we thought we’d include them all in one place down here.
First, there’s the Simon Dolan case. You can see all the latest updates and contribute to that cause here.
Then there’s the Robin Tilbrook case. You can read about that and contribute here.
Then there’s John’s Campaign which is focused specifically on care homes. Find out more about that here.
There’s the GoodLawProject’s Judicial Review of the Government’s award of lucrative PPE contracts to various private companies. You can find out more about that here and contribute to the crowdfunder here.
The Night Time Industries Association has instructed lawyers to JR any further restrictions on restaurants, pubs and bars.
And last but not least there’s the Free Speech Union‘s challenge to Ofcom over its ‘coronavirus guidance’. You can read about that and make a donation here.
Samaritans
If you are struggling to cope, please call Samaritans for free on 116 123 (UK and ROI), email jo@samaritans.org or visit the Samaritans website to find details of your nearest branch. Samaritans is available round the clock, every single day of the year, providing a safe place for anyone struggling to cope, whoever they are, however they feel, whatever life has done to them.
Shameless Begging Bit
Thanks as always to those of you who made a donation in the past 24 hours to pay for the upkeep of this site. Doing these daily updates is hard work (although we have help from lots of people, mainly in the form of readers sending us stories and links). If you feel like donating, please click here. And if you want to flag up any stories or links we should include in future updates, email us here. (Don’t assume we’ll pick them up in the comments.)
Special thanks to graphic designer and Lockdown Sceptics reader Claire Whitten for designing our new logo. We think it’s ace. Find her work here.
And Finally…
In the latest episode of London Calling, James Delingpole and I talk about James’s confrontation with a pro-masking fanatic on a train (which he wrote about yesterday for Lockdown Sceptics), the fiasco that is NHS Test and Trace and my new favourite TV show – Barbarians. Worth listening to on your daily walk and don’t forget to subscribe.
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Good morning, Judy; I guess I’m 2nd today. 🙂
Good morning
MANIFESTAZIONE TORINO 26 OTTOBRE 2020 Piazza Vittorio
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMyRCWR6_F0
Italians fight back against Covid Tyranny
Good to see they’re doing what it takes.
It’s coming here, only a matter of time. Expected it sooner TBH but had too much faith in the supine British public.
It’s already here: https://youtu.be/NpVujSQec4A
May I please get some example replies here for how you deal with the logic of ‘lockdowns worked because millions would have died without them’?
I keep repeating to friends that the same up/down curve shape of fatalities/infections occurred everywhere regardless of measures taken and when lockdowns started. People are never going to be convinced otherwise – ‘we know they worked because millions didn’t die’
FFS that is best described in that Simpson’s episode where Lisa sells Homer a ‘tiger repelling rock’ – proof it works is lack of tigers.
Anyone else using some better replies? It’s pointless I know but maybe some people at least can be swayed, or may question their thinking (or what MSM tells them to think).
Thanks – it’s getting tiring though. Plus I got a reply from ‘what about Sweden’ once – the rebuttal was ‘Sweden did worse than Finland so that proves Sweden was wrong’. Even though Sweden compared to Sweden any other year was no different. Oops that requires context.
Of course, no non-sceptic can mention Sweden because their death rate etc is so much lower than here,. The number of inconvenient truths Johnson, Hancock et al ignore is infinite. Time to remove them and Whitless and Vallance. Even quoting the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1967/8 (extrapolated deaths 96,000 – no lockdown, restrictions etc) can’t get through to them. They are blind, deaf, and stupidly obdurate
I think your missing the point. It’s a cult. You cannot make them accept reality
We’re all trying to use facts but Cecil B is unfortunately correct Only try to influence if the person is already showing uncertainty. The others reply with contempt.
We’re facing is a mass movement now of mask wearers, a collective body in which self sacrifice + a big dose of make believe make it a no-win situation.
Families and friends are falling out over who is a believer and who is not.
Today on social media young people are calling out non-mask wearers as ‘whiny snowflakes ‘ who can’t put up with a small sacrifice of wearing a mask in order to kill the corona!!!!
Agreed, during polling door knockers ignore households known to vote one way or the other, they concentrate on the undecided or waverers.
The real snowflakes are the ones who want to hide away until a vaccine is found(good luck with that one!) and are terrified of going out and living normally.
I’d pay good money to see one of them call Biker (for example) a snowflake to his face.
You could ask – where were the supermarket deaths in April?
I always get radio silence when I point that out.
Every time I use a supermarket I ask staff about how many of their colleagues have contracted it. The count is still zero after several months.
I did the same in Morrisons.. none
Thanks for the idea. I shall try that one in Lidl when I next go.
Show them this as a warm up. (link is safe).
https://www.facebook.com/madebyjimbob/photos/a.515697548611091/1514948435352659
Tens of thousands did die, as a direct consequence of the March lockdown. Everyone in favour of the March lockdown should read this report: ‘Via its Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), the government in mid-March adopted a policy, executed by NHS England and NHS Improvement, that led to 25,000 patients, including those infected or possibly infected with COVID-19 who had not been tested, being discharged from hospital into care homes between 17 March and 15 April—exponentially increasing the risk of transmission to the very population most at risk of severe illness and death from the disease. With no access to testing, severe shortages of PPE, insufficient staff, and limited guidance, care homes were overwhelmed. Although care home deaths were not even being counted in daily official figures of COVID-19 deaths until 29 April, some 4,300 care home deaths were reported in a single fortnight during this period.’ https://www.amnesty.org.uk/files/2020-10/Care%20Homes%20Report.pdf? The report is correct. SARS CoV 2 is a common cold coronavirus lethal to the elderly and infirm, as all common cold coronaviruses are: ‘….all patients infected with HCoV had some comorbidity, including a 46 year old diabetic patient who deceased.20 Another study conducted in Southern Brazil with 755 patients hospitalized… Read more »
It’s always worth pointing out here that the idea lockdown saved any lives at all is unfalsifiable and so is a pretty lame argument, just in principle. But mostly, I point out “Sweden” – no lockdown, middling mortality rate and better than ours, things now back completely back to normal and “Peru” – ongoing, military-enforced lockdown, highest death rate in the world.
The only real response to that I’ve ever had was “I knew you were going to say Sweden”, but people will sometimes try to point out social and cultural differences between the UK and Sweden and cultural and economic differences between the UK and Peru, but you can then point out that multiple studies have shown no beneficial effect from lockdowns and not a single one has yet shown that they work. Social-economic and cultural differences might very well explain some of the differences between countries’ mortality rates, but there’s no evidence that lockdown contributed either way. And anyway, we’re more similar to Sweden than we are to Peru.
I’ve had some success getting people to compare Brazil and Peru.
Brazil is a great example as Bolsanaro was famously dismissive of Covid and restrictions were very patchy and locally enforced. Despite this it’s deathrate is pretty similar to that of much of South America and far better than Peru which had a severe lockdown. If lockdowns made much of a difference Brazil should be far worse than it’s neighbours.
Having lived in Stockholm I am in a position to rebut many of the claims. Urban Sweden is virtually no different from urban Western societies anywhere. The Swedes are every bit as cosmopolitan as the rest of Europe. And they have serious problems with their immigrants just like the rest of Europe. A Swedish woman in a local cafe tells me she will not go back to visit her relatives because the nature of her home district has been changed out of all recognition, and she feels like a stranger there.
Reading the replies below, from NN, DS and others, I’m afraid that you just have to accept that some people are a lost cause. Some folk have to cling to the idea that their fear is founded or – if they’re one of the righteous ‘rainbow in the window sort – that they haven’t been duped. They epitomise the saying ‘It’s easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled’.
Save your energy.
I guess we all have this problem from time to time. You need to have a better researched, better presented, more evidence based argument than theirs, which sounds easy but is actually quite difficult.
You have to really build a robust hypothesis (that projections on deaths were unrealistic), based in scientific reality and facts.
But the point is it’s just a hypothesis – because we can never actually know for certain what would’ve happened had we not locked down.
But if they’re making claims based on demonstrably floored modelling (know why it’s floored and there’s one of your facts) and using those claims to justify the deaths of thousands of people (more hard data that you should know), whereas you’re making predictions based on emerging actual data, then yours is the more reasonable position.
It’s easy to become rooted in anti lockdown ideology (eg lockdowns have no effect whatsoever – a position seemingly contradicted by the doctor interviewed above), but it’s better to just stay with facts. We don’t need to deviate into ideology because the facts so clearly support the position that the response to Covid has been and is a hysterical overreaction.
I slightly change the nature of the conversation to try to get their non-brainwashed thought patterns going. So I say that nothing has especially changed from a year ago. Then we had a range of cold and flu viruses, and now we still have a range of cold and flu viruses. So none of this [lockdown] needed to happen.
I’ve found that a person who believes in mask wearing is impossible to talk to. If it’s a stranger there’s no point in wasting any time. If it’s a friend/acquaintance then I try to maintain the friendship by talking about the weather/garden whatever.
The other line that sometimes works is to talk about cancer and suicide deaths because of lockdown.
If lockdown worked so well, then why do we need another one?
Because the politicians got such a thrill on getting us to obey their stupid diktats that it’s become an addictive drug for them and they can’t kick the habit.
Sweden
Seems like sound logic to me. 🙂
Thanks all for the replies. I had only one person (friend) open to hearing these – but he is a good political debater and took quite a few philosophy of logic courses. He accepts many points I made, but still most don’t have the bandwidth to take in anything sceptical against the narrative. Or, they just don’t want to hear it. Then again, was chatting with a complete stranger who simply said – ‘I haven’t looked at anything but once I look at the yearly figures for 2020, I doubt this year will be any different for deaths than any other year’
Here in Canada we don’t seem to have easy access to mortality stats compared to Sweden or other EU countries (example https://twitter.com/haraldofw?lang=en), but so far 2020 is not different from any other average year.
Most people can’t think analytically, probabilistically or compare risks.
THE LIE REVEALED BY GOVERNMENT’S OWN DATA
We are told that prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 is rising, causing people to become sick and need hospital treatment – so filling up the hospitals.
If true, one would expect a 2-4 week delay after the rise in PCR detected cases before hospital stats should rise, and then a further delay before deaths start increasing.
Well here’s the actual data for England…
All the curves rise simultaneously – proving that hospital admissions and deaths per se are not increasing, it is just that more of them are being labelled as COVID because the number of people with an irrelevant positive test ‘label’ on them is increasing.
Yeah, where ARE all these deaths they were predicting?Weren’t they going to be increasing exponentially around about now? Ahh, no of course, not! The enforced bloody lockdowns have saved us all!
Plymouth going down next as Creeping Lockdown creeps southwest.
No extra deaths, just ‘cases’.
Really? That’s totally unjustified, even on case numbers.
Local Live online (mirror group news) 26/10.
‘Tier 2 Risk For Plymouth:
High Risk Warning After Surge in Covid19 Cases.
Coronovirus cases have surged by 340 cases in a week and health bosses worry* Plymouth could move into tier two without a citywide effort to reduce contact with others.
Plymouth Director of Public Health Doctor Ruth Harrel is warning’ (repeat of above).
*salivate
Living outside the two main Devon cities, I have wondering how long before Plymouth and Exeter fall. The virus has never done much down here – it doesn’t like the sea and moorland air.
Again, how many of the ‘cases’ are among University students?
Our local MPs have been especially shit through all this.
In Plymouth the cases are said to be evenly spread throughout the city which is surprising since I believe their University has more students than Exeter.
I often walk past the campus when I go into Plymouth, and it’s as if here is no one there – like the summer holidays. Haven’t been through Exeter recently.
Very high mask compliance whenever I’m in Plymouth, and in the surrounds. Clearly done a lot of good.
I would like to see the figures for Derriford Hospital covid admissions
“Very high mask compliance…….. done a lot of good” You do know you’re on Lockdown Sceptics comments Section?
I think it was sarcasm
Just think how bad it would have been if people hadn’t been wearing masks …
Alternatively, the reason we have so many ‘cases’ it because of reprobates like me who never wear a mask.
Have fun on Hallowe’en – wear a really scary one. Alternatively, wear a Whitless or Johnson one and really terrify the children
Plymouth has had the heart ripped out of it by the incessant instructions all around the city. and the tape on the floors etc. They’re brainwashing us to death.
Yes, dreadful isn’t it. Luckily I don’t have to go in there much right now. Used to enjoy a coffee and walk around.
In may well be the end for the city centre, which even the Blitz didn’t manage.
‘cases’ = positive tests. About 90% false. MW
I’m aware of that and that they load videos that have very little to do with the actual article.
They’re obviously closing down Plymouth to shut down UK Column…
I would love to see them try.
I gather that city is the front line between UK Column and Common Purpose.
Earlier than now, about two to three weeks ago their exponential rise shoukd have been evident.
They are increasing at approximately 5% per day equal to doubling every two weeks. A small exponential rate (0.05) tends to looks linear overs short timescales. In the above plot, deaths clearly lag cases.
I’ll bring over my reply to your post from yesterday, so people get to see it.
Nice! Look up Clare Craig on Twitter; she’s also outed that lie.
https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath
Are we five weeks on from the week prior to the graph to-the-moon? The following rise of deaths with a two to three week lag was predicted back then. Simply by laying the March graph onto the september calendar month.
All data feeds show the game is up. The lag has not produced beaths as they had hoped.
This seems fallacious to me. If positive test results are leading hospital admissions and deaths and all three are exponentials, then the time lead is the same as a constant multiplier. But your graph takes out any constant multiplier by contraining them all to pass through the same point near the top right-hand corner, namely 100% of current value. All this graph shows you is that the three curves are rising at a similar exponential rate over the time period plotted. It says nothing about time lead or lag.
I understand you point, but disagree. case counts were flatlined – as were the other metrics. Then something happened to make case counts start increasing. Hospital admissions and death should have stayed at their flatline levels for 2-4 weeks after that, before they started increasing. Scaling them to the same 100% end pint would make the hospital stats and death curves rise more steeply than the case numbers.
This does not happen. All leave their own baselines at the same instant.
The synchronicity of this is also apparent when one looks at rates of growth. All curves (% positive tests, hospital admissions and patients, and death rates) started off by increasing with a 2 week doubling time, which lasted for a while, but they have all subsequently slowed down – again virtually in unison. Recently the increase is more like a doubling rate of every 4-6 weeks.
Many other factors feed into this (e.g., nosocomial infections, age distributions, testing of people with and without symptoms, discarding test results for people that have already tested positive, sensitivity/specificity of Pillar 1 vs Pillar 2 tests, location of death) but the expected time delays that were VERY apparent in wave 1 are simply not there this time around. The only explanation I can come up with is that we’ve now got a big ‘casedemic’ effect obscuring the real state of affairs.
Very glad to further debate and hear your thoughts
Thanks for those responses. I’ve never paid much attention to positive test numbers, since of course they’re dependent on numbers of tests, which have been increasing. More interesting is the proportion of tests coming back positive, which was indeed pretty flat through August and started to rise in September, but these are skewed by the extent to which tests are being restricted to people who have symptoms. But I put most emphasis on the ONS figures, based on random sample. They show the proportion of the population as a whole infected as starting an upward trend at the end of August.
The hospitalisation figures are for patients admitted for all causes testing positive. So that includes people hospitalised because of Covid, plus a more-or-less random selection of the population admitted for other reasons but who also happen to test positive. So that should start to rise at the same time as the numbers infected.
ONS data are for a very non-random slice of the population (volunteer survey households). The REACT dataset probably represent the best thing we have for a random sampling. Certainly the PHE and NHS data are distorted in many unknowable ways. But they do release total number of tests, so percent positivity changes with time can be calculated and tracked. From discussions with people having access to some NHS Trust data, about 20% of hospital cases have any COVID symptoms. So as you say, and the chart confirms, this number would rise with case percentages. It is not a measure of COVID illness in hospitals. Deaths numbers are critical… if we want to be sure that all the lockdowns, sacrifices and pain are tackling an actual problem. Unfortunately, they do not follow the other metrics with a delay, but rise in concert – so I fear they are just indicating any and all deaths of whatever cause amongst the set of people that happen to have tested positive recently. Indeed, the lockdown induced bottleneck in viral diversity is known (by viral genome sequencing) to have caused the loss of many viral strains. The surviving strains that have grown back recently since… Read more »
Bring it over; I won’t tell. 😉
Planting a few sharp pieces of flint in the right places would go a long way towards solving our problems.
Is citing Game of Thrones the new Godwin 😉
Since Toby has brought up mad cow disease.
Last week BBC R4 included an item about a number of fatalities caused by cows.
I thought to mention it here as proof of
Long Mad Cow Disease
but decided it was both cruel and off topic.
To finish my observations from yesterday’s forum: My first visit of many to NYC was in 2008, and even 7 years after the disaster incredible things were being unearthed in the wreckage. Like the hull of a Dutch 16th century ship that I managed to get a picture of under pressure from obese men in high-vis jackets. A picture I have subsequently lost due to data carelessness. I went to the 9/11 Memorial museum within a few weeks of its opening. Rocked up late one evening, already a few beers into my session, no queues, no pre-booking. It was the most stunning exhibition I have ever visited, like a careful descent into hell. The room containing the portraits of the 3.000 that died was surrounded by the foundations of the original WTC construction concrete meeting the Manhattan bedrock. The centrepiece of this room of death was a grisly collection of the personal effects of the dead. Slightly warped, but not obliterated as their bodily remain were. Including a Sainsbury’s Reward Card (pre Nectar), which as a British visitor blew my fucking head off. My last visit to NYC in 2019 encompassed my first visit to the new, and extraordinarily eerie,… Read more »
Those fatalities are not caused by cows. They are caused by arrogant townies who insist on asserting their ‘right’ to walk amongst them. The cows are doing what female mammals are programmed to do and protecting their young.
To be fair, it’s pretty disconcerting when you’re actually on a public footpath, heeding the country code, and then find it blocked by a gang of cows, giving you the evil eye!
Since the cows don’t know what is or isn’t a public footpath, I generally go off the path if there are cows with their calves!
It was the BBC Caroline, I’ll rephrase it for them.
“People who were in fatalities with cows”.
That happens to me, too. I always seem to compose my best, most protracted and frankly marvellous comment at the wrong time, just as the page flips over into a new day…and it slides away into the mists of time…
Nothing wrong with reposting if the days page is early.
Both the Telegraph and Daily Mail are printing increasingly more sceptical articles; might we take heart and begin to see a surge towards the beginning of the end of the lockdown? By Christmas?
I mentioned late yesterday that the Guardian was reporting (mon 26th Oct) a ‘worrying’ 22% of GB population believe that Covid deaths have been exaggerated.
I would say that 22% was gratifying or encouraging though it compares badly to 55% in Nigeria.
A similar % are reportedly sceptical about a vaccine.
The drama series Judge John Deed covers the machinations of big pharma introducing a novel vaccine. S5 episode 6 if you have an hour and a half to spare.
Would be great to see the ever rising number of sceptics reported alongside ‘cases’ etc.
The zombies would cheer loudly, say the victims deserved what they got, and go back to clapping as suspected cases were loaded on to cattle trucks bound for quarantine hotels in Poland.
The signs are strong they are already doing this.
In the Philippines they shoot people in the hip for not wearing their mask correctly
Don’t give Johnson or Hancock ideas our Police would probably shoot themselves in the nuts by accident
Great, they are just 9 months behind the curve
The Guardians front page, has the Tory MPs wanting an exit strategy as the main story
The Tory mps need to force a no confidence vote on Johnson and throw him out take Hancock Witty vallance also SAGE with him https://www.remove-the-tory-government.org
BBC main headline now and with the exact same structure. Are the crooks at ICL now writing the articles for the meeja? Just how rotten is ICL, if I was religious I would be expecting the antichrist to be in residence.
even Talk Radio news featured this.
Talk Radio have a problem in that they outsource the half hourly news reports (i think its Sky news) which means that their news is the same shite that the rest of the MSM are told to put out.
Makes for very strange listening. 30 minutes of JHB saying covid is all bollocks followed by 2 minutes of sky news telling us we are all going to die
The weekend news bulletins are definitely Sky, they say so, but I thought during the week they were their own along with the half hourly ones. But I agree, the bulletins tend to follow the official line whereas many of the reporters are outright sceptical.
And half way down the BBC article it states that antibody levels remained higher over time in care home workers…….. who are more constantly exposed. No shit.
Hiding under the bed, sorry, lockdowns, couldn’t possibly be counterproductive to our immunity surely?
I was going to comment separately on this exact paragraph from the BBC but I will just add: So effectively it’s herd immunity at a macro level?
Perhaps we should start a campaign to Defund Imperial then close them down – they have been the source of our misery and should Never Again be allowed to dictate policy.
They had another report from Imperial on the beeb this morning.
Apparently having had the Covid reduces your cognitive abilities.
Working at Imperial seems to entirely destroy your moral backbone.
Seems true of Johnson 😀
I read the bbc version first – nothing there on t-cells of course!
I made an online complaint to the BBC this morning when I read that, saying it was factually incorrect and scaremongering. It won’t get me anywhere obviously, but made me feel better at the time!
Stop complying it’s that simple I got asked in a super market where is my mask I told the goon do you want two front teeth for Christmas and walked out
Since this seems to be all over the headlines today, it got me wondering.
Antibodies don’t hang around for ever, we know that. You couldn’t have antibodies for everything your immune system had learned how to deal with kicking about in your blood stream, or you’d have no room for blood cells. It also seems pretty likely that antibodies, or a lack there of, is not necessarily a binary answer to whether or not you’re immune. So, thanks, ICL, but also “blah”.
However, it occurs to me that, if antibodies for SARS-CoV 2 decline unusually rapidly, might this suggest that your immune system doesn’t think the virus is all that much cop anyway? Interested in the thoughts of those here who are qualified to comment!
My university Immunology course taught me that, as NorthumbriaNomad identifies, T cells play a major role in first line defences, giving the antibody producing cells time to catch up. Antibodies are chunky proteins that are expensive to produce so the body stops making them when the infection is over. However there are cells called Memory T Cells that will recognise the antigen next time it is encountered so that antibodies for future infections of the same type can be produced more quickly.
I did this 40 years ago, still know more that Hancock or Dorries. I know, it’s a low bar.
I also just “influenza antibody decline” and the second hit is this:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25066592/
So SARS-CoV2 behaves no differently to influenza in that regard.
It’s gonna take the MSM to change tactic to get through to the majority of people. But, bear in mind, the DM is one of most widely read online newspapers around the world, and for every hysterical article there seems to be another to balance that. The comments are definitely in the sceptic camp. There is a bit of hope (and I never thought I would say that about the Daily Mail!)
All the recent working blokes hereabouts, Merseyside are sceptics. We have had young fellers doing the drains, a maintenance bloke and today gas fitters , one of whom checks out Vernon Coleman and UK Column, I put him onto this site. No masks and fuck the distancing palaver!
Is the pig dictator still trotting about?
🐷 who you calling a pig ?🐽
Yes, Cecil, you really must stop insulting pigs in this way. It ain’t right.
too true.. remember what churchill said
“Dogs look up to you, cats look down on you. Give me a pig! He looks you in the eye and treats you as an equal.”
Pig heart valves are anatomically similar to those of humans and are used in transplant procedures – i.e. pigs save lives! The traitor dictator(s), on the other hand …
Pigs are very intelligent …
oinking and rootling
The lockdown s are saving us you ungrateful bastards
(gniekoj ylnO)
Pedant alert: no ‘e’ in gniekoj.
Sorry, couldn’t resist. 😉 🙂
Did I just kcuf that up?
Job as head of T&T awaits
Re. Toby’s item in the Round-up above about Whitty speaking to an audience: Whitty is actually speaking at a No. 10 Press Conference on March 3rd, at which he said: “Overall, probably around 1% of people who get this virus might end up dying based on the Chinese experience.“To be clear that therefore means 99% of people will not.“If a higher proportion than we are currently aware of, get the infection without any symptoms that mortality rate will go down.“But let’s take 1% overall as the current reasonable figure. It goes up a bit in people who are older and more vulnerable. It will be much lower than that in younger people who have no other health problems.“The bit of information we don’t know – the proportion of people who have no symptoms at all. And the second thing we cannot be sure of is what proportion of the population can get infected.“It will not go above 80% – for planning purposes of course we go up to the highest rate that it reasonably could – but in my view the proportion of the population that get infected is likely to be lower than that and probably a lot lower.”“There… Read more »
Hoist by his own petard
Unfortunately we were hoist with him.
This is why Yeadon is so angry.
He knows they are lying.
Most of us know they are lying and are not just woefully incompetent. The ever so competent Yeadon carries some weight, but we need many more like him.
Not just lying but destroying lives with their lies.
I would call it murder.
So he knew then it affected old people badly and still shovelled them back into care homes.
No doubt he had a phone call from Bill, who is a very generous funder of one of the institutions, where in theory Whitty still holds a position. Nice work if you can get it.
“Last Christmas, I gave you my heart,
But the very next day you gave it away;
This year, to save me from tears,
We’ll go to into fucking lockdown.“
Brilliant round up today, Toby! I especially like the slightly altered Churchill speech, definitely the motivation I needed this morning.
But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science. Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties,…
I included this extract of Churchill’s speech, pointing out examples of perverted science about C-19, in the letter to my MP in the forlorn hope that he might vote to get rid of the Coronavirus Act. The reply was cut and paste by an SS brigade intern. He did not sign the reply.
Take comfort, friends, and stand tall. Hear this from Stacey Rudin’s piece: “What do these anti-lockdowners gain by presenting their case to the public? Nothing material — a concept which is difficult for pro-lockdowners to understand. What they gain is security in the knowledge that they fought for truth, justice, and what is right, even to the point of risking everything. This is a privilege.” It’s been said before actually: 11 Blessed are ye, when men shall revile you, and persecute you, and shall say all manner of evil against you falsely, for my sake. 12 Rejoice, and be exceeding glad: for great is your reward in heaven: for so persecuted they the prophets which were before you. 13 Ye are the salt of the earth: but if the salt have lost his savour, wherewith shall it be salted? it is thenceforth good for nothing, but to be cast out, and to be trodden under foot of men. 14 Ye are the light of the world. A city that is set on an hill cannot be hid. 15 Neither do men light a candle, and put it under a bushel, but on a candlestick; and it giveth light unto all that are in the… Read more »
It’s gone from my news feed now but there was a link to Wales online about a Police intervention at a church service in Swansea on Sunday. Service ended on ‘advice’, no fines issued.
If there was a rag of decency in the Church in Wales, the police would have had to raid every church in the country.
What church was it that was attacked? I’d like to write them a letter of support.
That’s all I can remember Annie but it seemed to be a minor one (not BAME).
It was a church in Cardiff, it looked like an evangelical church. I think the report is in “Wales today”. The Police “graciously” allowed them 5 minutes of prayer.
Thanks for that
It was the New Hope Community Church in Cardiff.
Now renamed the No Hope Community Church.
Jesus was a bit of a revolutionary. Most churches, not so much
I sawit too.disgusting.police telling worshippers to leave as they were breaking the rona rules. Funny they seem to have eyes everywhere???you could only ever find them in McDonalds at one time. Rarely would they show for a pis TV of crimes.. burglaries..car damage..ect ect unless it was a perceived thought or hate crime ..now they even know when a church service has more than 6 worshippers ( god forbid..no pun intended 😉) …I have always been suspicious …lockdowns = less people to observe more surveillance being fitted everywhere..for years we couldn’t get a bloody pothole in the road sorted now everywhere is cones..roadworks everywhere ( spot any workmen) ..why what’s really going on?councils paid for tier lockdowns? Is that to pay for surveillance/ chip entry to all current services/ leisure facilities to be fitted….its all highly suspicious..rant over .just saying..have a good day everyone 😄😄
Tell the 🐖 🚔 to go and swing
here is the full video
Thank you, I only saw stills earlier.
Thanks Annie! Am off to my university now to light a candle.
A vox pop. from comments on the Sun article:
“Sorry to say but I will refuse next time I go shopping try wearing one while pushing a wheelchair and trying to shop my local supermarket lost a lot of money off me on Saturday as I left that quick to get outside I was overheating and was breathing more than usual it is not healthy it seems the cases have shot up since the introduction of face masks.”
Nice for the Sun to print a mask sceptic letter, shame the writing was not better.
You got the gist of it and that’s all that matters… surely?
As Winston thinks in 1984, ‘if there is hope it lies in the proles (his word, not mine).There are so many more of them.
…for we are many, and they are few.
I can see a Sun letters editor deliberately publishing a poorly written sceptic letter to make a point about Sceptics while retaing a claim for balance.
Good point!! We’re all so thick aren’t we.
Been hearing that one for the last 5 years too. At least I’m not racist or xenophobic now too though. Small mercies.
Yes indeed, we don’t need the grammar police as well as the Covid-Stasi.
‘Social credit’ and cashless society…….https://www.facebook.com/madebyjimbob/photos/1617154801798688
Let’s see how they get on in what is still supposed to be a secret ballot.
Sorry if already posted but this article is hilarious. You will laugh aloud, I promise.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8882479/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Step-away-deep-pan-pepperoni-pizza-youre-nicked.html
I read it laughed earlier, waiting for readers comments to mount up.
And he’s handed us yet another apt description of Dripfeed: a ‘two-bob Welsh Erich Honecker wannabe running an overblown parish council in Cardiff’.
Spot on. Thanks for linking, Gillian!
Leave Honecker alone
How can anyone have any respect for the police when they act so stupidly? I am seriously concerned about the intelligence levels of those in the Establishment.
‘What happened between 13th and 14th March?’ Professor O’Neill asks, to cause the government to change its policy to one of lockdown? I suggest that it is pretty clear what happened. The British government was bullied into changing its policy by the eu, using Macron as its enforcer Tues 17th March ‘The European Commission is planning to ban all non-essential travel to the European Union after more countries within the bloc closed their borders to try to limit the spread of coronavirus.’ (BBC) The British Government would have been informed a day or so prior to this announcement, so likely Friday the previous week. The date on that Friday? 13 March. ‘“We had prepared the closure of our border and told Prime Minister Johnson we would implement it that day if there was no evolution [of British measures],” a senior French official’ ‘French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said that evening that for the travel ban to work, all countries within the EU should adopt “coherent” methods. “Italy, France, Spain, perhaps other countries will do the same soon, chose confinement, it goes without saying that if states, namely neighboring countries like the United Kingdom continue for much longer without such measures, then… Read more »
Boris made a speech on March 13 saying ‘love ones will die’
If he didn’t know we were going into lockdown by that day it is the most irresponsible speech by a British Prime minister ever.
Johnson is a despicable piece of shit get him out of office now
It may simply be that the WHO’s decision to declare it a global Pandemic the same day triggered a collective shift in the narrative.
Looks like a fair bit of international choreography, mainly by democratically unaccountable (potentially partial due to funding sources, political pressure) entities.
That is why an independent public inquiry is so important, and why all governments are putting off the day that they are held to account.
The longer they leave it, the worse the effects on their electoral futures and maybe, for some, so much else…….
Having previously downgraded the seriousness that choice of words indicated.
Its because the establishment has no real leverage for people to continue to obey lockdown after Xmas
If it saves just one Christmas
Petition against Mad Drivelford’s items ban now nearing 67,000 signatures. A test case, I think- and, I hope, a positive one.
Anyone any idea what the BBC’s little game is, a Panorama that doesn’t tie with the lockdown zealotry it has been vomiting out for the past 7 months. There must be an angle, they must be playing a long game that ties in with some BBC wished for year long lockdown or something. They haven’t suddenly realised lockdowns cause more harm than benefits. They’re up to something.
Covering their backs for when it all implodes.
Well said. The other choice would be for gov to say – we overreacted sorry.
They are essentially being blackmailed by the government. Be too critical and lose the license fee or have scum like Gideon Osborne installed as Chair.
I’m hearing people who now say they don’t know anybody who still listens to the BBC. When are the next JACTAR (?) viewing figures out ?
BBC has become the embodiment of Lord Haw Haw.
I hope the top brass at the BBC all receive the same punishment as Lord Haw Haw.
Funny, I was just thinking the same.
Also “This is Funf speaking . . .”
Good morning from Wales, Judy. However, pleasantries have now been decreed inessential by our Great Leader, and soon I will have a visit from Stasi Cymru.
Oi you, Dee less of that cross border fraternisation.
Maybe some of us should get together and come to the bridge by Chepstow to lob children’s clothes and tampons , books and other “inessentials” , over the Stasi’s heads for the prisoners of the Senedd.. I’m assuming that common sense and humanity are inessentials too, to judge by Drakeford. When, oh when, can we have the civil disobedience and the mass rejection of this idiocy?
Victoria Derbyshire:”I DO love big BROTHER/BORIS”
When was the last time you saw the useless lying twat with Carrie? She doesn’t.
If rumours are to be believed she has moved out as he can’t keep his flies done up.
She could hardly be surprised, could she?
Takes votes from the Democrats. Surely only of benefit to the Republicans.
It’s UK but the Mail is reporting BLM have denied it.
UK group separated from the US one.
In the land of Narnia, as cursed by the White Witch, I seem to recall that it was, ‘Always winter but never Christmas’.
Ban all politicians
The Behavioural Insights Team (BIT) is a social purpose company that is jointly owned by the UK Government, Nesta (the innovation charity) and BIT’s employees. … BIT tries to improve policies and public services by drawing on ideas from behavioural science. Also known as Nudge.
Toby had a piece on it yesterday ‘how the MEAN psychologists got us to comply”
In the roundup I think.
Thanks, missed that, will have a read. Interesting how they got so many to comply, the rest of us were able to see through it.
Have you seen this document, Dan? APEASE! Very nasty piece of work.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/882722/25-options-for-increasing-adherence-to-social-distancing-measures-22032020.pdf
Anyone who thinks this fiasco is merely due to incompetence really hasn’t been paying attention!
It was good to read the Churchill quote as revised Which has been going through my mind in recent days. Surely if 1600 young men in Spitfires and Hurricanes could deal with the Nazi threat, then some of us old folk could effect a similar victory? ‘We shall never surrender’.
AGREED, and I’m the political opposite to everything that Churchill stood for.
Proud to say that my Dad was one of them. I dread to think what he’d make of all this – “little hitlers” were one of his major bugbears. . . now they’re in charge.
No. Young people’s job prospects are not being damaged by the CV pandemic. They’re being damaged by the Government.
This is one of my main worries. People will see and acknowledge the damage surrounding them, but will consider it unavoidable because it was ‘caused by the virus’, not the response to it.
I wonder whether quite a few people are aware that it’s the lockdowns which cause damage but don’t want to acknowledge that conclusion because it’s just too painful to know that all their sacrifice and destruction was for nought.
People will see and acknowledge the damage surrounding them, but will consider it unavoidable because it was ‘caused by the virus’, not the response to it.
I always but in and correct people on this point. It’s really important and does help to open their eyes.
To be honest, that lets the real culprits off the hook. The government are being driven by the people. It is middle-aged people of our society who are are doing this. Look at Maureen in Barnsley or Norman Tebbit in the Telegraph, they are in their 80s and they can’t bear what is being done to the young. It’s us (I was born in the 70s) doing this. We have to stop it, now.
My impression is that views vary across all age groups. I was born in the 70s too- this isn’t being done in your name or mine! It is the Government’s actions that mean that employers are unable to provide employment and that university staff don’t offer students a decent education. Yes, some people are scared and selfish in their decisions, but they were told to be terrified by the media and politicians.
Is it your experience that the university staff are demanding that the government let them teach the young people? Do you see many middle aged people complaining that we are listening to Professor Ferguson too much? Do you see mayors of northern towns demanding to let their people go about their business? I don’t, all I see is people arguing for free money for everyone, preferably forever. Face it, the people are the problem and the government are following. This one is on us.
Absolute rubbish.The government terrorised the people through the press and media on the advice of SPI-B so they could lick us down.
Fake opinion polls used to justify continued lockdowns.
These terrified sheep you see are trauma victims of their own government.
Those clamouring for money are the usual left wing politicians who see money as the answer for everything.
People terrorised themselves. Think back to January and February, covid spread on social media before it got to Europe. People chose to terrorise themselves long before the government even noticed.
I’m remember bat soup memes etc.I didn’t see much terror.Even the videos of people dropping down dead didn’t cause much fear.
It was only when lockdown started in Italy did the screw turn because the government realised lockdowns were an option and they built up a crescendo using the media to get us to the point where we were almost begging for lockdown.
Who is to blame the Liar or the one who believes the lie?
Well, Maureen from Barnsley doesn’t believe the lie, so it doesn’t take any expertise. If you look at the percentage of people who self-isolate for 14 days when they are supposed to, most people don’t believe the lie enough to think that lockdown applies to them. They just believe it to the extent that they want to lockdown other people. So, my sympathy is limited for those believing the lie.
There is no excuse now for continuing to believe the government propaganda ,my point is that during the lockdown the government was able to beam fear porn directly into homes and people cut off from friends family and work colleagues were more susceptible.
Much easier when everybody is isolated from everyone else.
Happily I was and remain isolated from BBC TV.
Maybe she and her husband aren’t experts but she was up to speed and has good old style common sense, sadly lacking elsewhere,
They’re a very astute couple. She was a local politician and no doubt knows all the tricks.
Of course, it is the liar and we know who the liars are.
You’re floundering around on this one. Opinions vary across all age groups, but no matter what, the government has to shoulder the whole of the blame. It is Johnson and Hancock who have turned the UK into an Orwellian nightmare, rather than tackle Covid-19, whatever it really is, in an adult fashion like Sweden. It is not the stupid frightened masses who are to blame, not withstanding that their slavish compliance is now a very major problem for all of us.
The government were fully aware in January – bunged a load of propaganda cash at the press. You think the Covid Act was drawn up overnight?
I don’t know which gives me the shivers more: having the government terrorise the population, or having the government lick me down.
[All right, slightly frivolous…]
Depends where they lick
… or the usual right-wing politicians who are just doing what they’ve always done and what comes naturally in terms of picking pockets.
“views vary across all age groups”
Of course. Just whining about some imagined group is a pathetic response to this shit-show.
It is terrifying how many supposedly educated middle aged people believe that a virus will go away if you hide from it. Their ‘education’ also seems to have omitted to tell them that opinions are worthless if not backed by evidence.
It’s educated people who are working from home very happily.
Very hard to convince people not to hide from the virus when their comfortable life depends on them hiding away.
Some of us are WFH quite unhappily. But I’ve worked from home for years. Also educated.
In a crisis it’s the government’s job to lead, not to follow. At present they’re leading in the wrong direction. (And we might question if it actually is a crisis).
Hence why we have to keep hammering the message that its lockdown not the virus. Unfortunately we know of far too many people who are still asleep and who uncritically believe in what they’re told.
My fear is that some people are too far gone however there is hope that others will wake up especially if its their livelihoods at stake.