The number of excess deaths in England and Wales has fallen below zero for the first time in six months, according to ONS data.
The ONS reports:
The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales decreased from 11,592 in Week 9 (week ending March 5th 2021) to 10,987 in Week 10 (week ending March 12th 2021). The number of deaths was 4.4% below the five-year average (511 deaths fewer).
In England, the number of deaths decreased from 10,882 in Week 9 to 10,277 in Week 10, which was 468 deaths (4.4%) fewer than the Week 10 five-year average. This is the first time that deaths have been lower than the five-year average in England since the week ending September 4th 2020 (Week 36).
In Wales, the number of deaths decreased from 689 in Week 9 to 685 in Week 10, which was 35 deaths (4.9%) fewer than the Week 10 five-year average. This is the second consecutive week deaths have been lower than the five-year average in Wales.
Given this data, and the fact that half of all UK adults have received a Covid vaccine, is it not about time that Britain unlocks?
The ONS’ findings are worth reading in full.
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Expect them to rise. After all, they need to manufacture a reason to extend the lockdown.
Oh gawd! How often does it have to be said that the 2015-2019 average is a stupid way to define ‘excess’ deaths. It actually understates the present (and past) deviation from a more representative norm.
Sorry – that ‘understates’ should be ‘overtstates’.
… that being said, the trend is consistent across all regions … and the decline notably less pronounced in deaths at home.
The direction of the trend is the same. What I’m bellyaching about is that the noddy definition of ‘excess’ that is commonly used (ask the question ‘Why?’ and the answer is ‘Because it is’) actually exaggerates the typicality of recent levels which, in this case are as low as they ever have been. Thus the pandemic always seems more deadly than it is in a more balanced historical context.
Carry on bellyaching! The trends over the past 10 years are fairly well understood (if temporarily forgotten). Many of those that could be actioned were generally thought to be too expensive. … and then we go and throw billions around like confetti. Go figure!
Sweden doing better than us! No lockdown, no masks, no track and trace, no vaccine roll-out!
No its too soon.
Over 1.5million daily tests and just in so managing to scrape together 5000 positive test results, which as we all know are positive test results and false positives don’t exist.
I really need to see if my shares include any of the testing companies.
Still large numbers of people dying without covid at home due to a lack of access to health care.
45,000 ‘excess’ non-covid home deaths in total since Spring 2020, including over 650 non-covid home deaths for the latest week.
Perhaps some of these forgotten people may have instead died in hospital had they had access to hospital treatment, but many wouldn’t, or else what would be the point of hospital treatment.
It’s appalling that this is happening, it’s blatant manslaughter.
Yes people forget this. The NHS was shut from March to July with all diagnostic, screening and treatment services suspended. Hospitals were empty but the elective surgery list is now running at millions. I note the NHS are trotting out the excuse that there has been an increase in breast cancer because people were too afraid to go to hospital and burden the NHS (NHS always blame the patients or anyone else but never themselves). People who are seriously ill never refuse to go to GPs or hospitals but for the past year, they have been unable to access either their GPs or hospitals. I want the Government to tell us when GP services will resume as normal which should be with immediate effect.
Of course it’s time that Britain unlocks, but the powers that be are clearly enjoying their moment of absolute power. Behold! A third wave is beckoning, so best wait a bit. Summer is coming, but let’s forget that viruses back down seasonally. The “miracle” of vaccines will save us ( crocodile tears, Mr. Hancock?), but let’s stay indoors, isolated, just in case they’re not all that they’re cracked up to be. And so the goalposts keep on moving, the prize ever so slightly further out of reach….