Despite the clear evidence from America of states without restrictions experiencing no worse (and often better) outcomes than states with restrictions, the case for lockdowns continues to be pressed, with proponents pointing to the surges in France (which has just entered another lockdown) and across Europe, as well as in Brazil. But are things actually as bad as they’re claimed by the lockdown zealots?
Europe’s spring surge, which appears to be easing off now, has been driven in part by an increase in testing. France, for instance, has been spiking in positive cases.
But it is also ramping up testing.
The positive rate is therefore largely flat.
Covid deaths follow a similar pattern to positive cases, including the recent spike due to increased testing.
However, overall deaths (from all causes) are currently below average, suggesting the Covid deaths are mostly expected deaths and France is currently experiencing a pseudo-epidemic created by over-testing (though no doubt there is real Covid in the hospitals putting pressure on ICUs, especially in Paris).
In Sweden, positive cases have been rising sharply since February.
However, so has testing, and the positive rate is flat.
ICU admissions had a bit of an upswing during the same period, but seem to be settling now.
However, deaths are flat.
Furthermore, excess deaths (from all causes) are through the floor, hitting -18% in early March, and -8% as of March 14th.
‘Cases’ spiking but positivity flat, ICU admissions high but excess deaths negative. Smells like another pseudo-epidemic to me.
Brazil, on the other hand, is definitely suffering from a real outbreak, with both high Covid deaths and excess deaths. However, it’s a big country and it’s worth bearing in mind that its Covid mortality rate is still behind the UK’s.
Positive cases also appear to have levelled off in the last couple of weeks, suggesting it may not get much worse.
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Absolutely correct.The most important is the amount of testing and positivity rate and C-19 deaths or more correct excess mortality but these later figures would lag.
In France I saw somewhere a comment that almost 50% of all PCRs was done in Paris region which would further blur the picture even with ICUs full in Paris.
Are we absoluely sure these are true C-19 cases in all circumstances?
In Germany there is a sudden rise of other corona viruses,can they affect the accuracy of C-19 diagnosis?
Testademic. The hospital and ICU numbers are predominantly in poorer areas of Paris, Marseilles and Lyon, together with the old heavy industry areas of the north east. Respiratory disease every year gets older people with immune defficiencies because of past lung problems and poorer diet. The only thing that has changed this year is that they are all getting labelled ‘covid’ because of the PCR tests.
Those tests HAVE to be discredited completely to stop this farce.
Thank you for the clarity of your article.two things came to mind. Increased testing and the treatment, ivermectin, for early onset COVID and for prophylaxsis.
Please, please don’t surrender on the language. These are not “cases”, let alone “confirmed cases”. They are positive test results, and nothing more.
Have you had a look at the UK’s positive test rate? For the 28th of March (the last day with complete figures), it’s now 0.30%. That’s not a typo, or a misplaced period.
This should be the headline news, not our few thousand “cases”, which are now statistically indistinguishable from false positives.
Of what value are these graphs from ‘OUR WORLD IN DATA’ when the .org is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation?
https://ibb.co/kc65R09
Much like 62% of Brits want vaxx passports to visit the pub data from Ipsos MORI once again funded by guess who?
https://unitynewsnetwork.co.uk/ipsos-mori-received/
Wakey…wakey….