One in 400,000 Chance of Two Vaccinated People Catching a Symptomatic Infection From Each Other Indoors

Boris Johnson has decreed that vaccinated people must not meet indoors because jabs “are not giving 100% protection“. But, according to a new analysis, the risk of catching a symptomatic Covid infection for two people who have been vaccinated is about one in 400,000. For context, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency says that the risk of developing a blood clot from the AstraZeneca vaccine – which the Prime Minister wants all people to continue receiving – is one in 250,000. Others have placed the risk at around one in 100,000. That’s roughly the same chance of correctly guessing the last five digits of someone’s mobile phone number. So why the hesitancy about indoor meet-ups? The Telegraph has the story.

The risk of two vaccinated people catching Covid from meeting up indoors is “tiny”, scientists have calculated, with just a one in 400,000 chance of picking up an infection.

Last week, Boris Johnson warned that people should not be allowing others into their homes, even if they had both had the vaccine.

“The vaccines are not giving 100% protection, that’s why we need to be cautious,” said the Prime Minister.

But Professor Tim Spector, at King’s College London, has calculated that the risk of catching a symptomatic infection is around one in 400,000 for two people who have been vaccinated – which is far less than the risk of developing a blood clot from the AstraZeneca jab.

Professor Spector, who is lead scientist on the ZOE Covid Symptom Study app and professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s, said there was currently just a one in 1,400 risk of “bumping into someone” with symptomatic Covid, and people should feel more “relaxed” if they had been vaccinated.

Professor Spector set out to give the Prime Minister’s claims about the risk of vaccinated people meeting indoors some context.

“It all depends on how much virus is around in the country and currently with rates of one in 1,400 for someone who has been fully vaccinated, according to our data and the trial data, it suggests they are at a 20th of the normal risk, which means their risk is about one in 28,000. 

“So if they’re meeting someone with equally low risk the chance of those giving to each other are really absolutely tiny.”

Worth reading in full.

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