More good news today – if only Boris was paying attention to data, not dates. MailOnline has the rundown.
England’s coronavirus cases have halved in a month, the R rate is still below one, and the number of people in hospital has dropped below 1,000 for the first time since September, promising data revealed today.
Just 46,000 people had coronavirus in England on any given day last week, or one in 1,180 people, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The figure was around 112,000 towards the start of April – and is down 15% last Friday’s estimate.
No 10’s top scientists said the reproduction rate – which tracks the spread of the virus – was between 0.8 and 1.0, meaning the outbreak is still shrinking. This was down from 0.8 to 1.1 in the previous seven-day period.
Meanwhile, NHS figures show the number of infected patients in hospitals across England has dropped into three figures for the first time since the second wave spiralled out of control nine months ago. Daily admissions are now below 100.
The data follows on from promising statistics from Public Health England and a symptom-tracking app yesterday, which showed the easing of restrictions on April 12th has not triggered any spike in the disease.
Boris Johnson is under mounting pressure to speed up his roadmap out of lockdown, with businesses and MPs warning that they risk suffering another lost summer if there are further delays. But the Prime Minister has refused to budge from plans to re-allow holidays and indoor hospitality from May 17th, despite promising he would be led by “data not dates”.
Come on BoJo. What are you waiting for? Reward the electorate for delivering yet another hammer blow to the Labour Party and set them free.
Worth reading in full.
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My opinion of the Labour party is the same as yours, but I don’t see what is gained for the cause of lockdown scepticism by taking gratuitous digs at some people’s voting preferences. We should welcome constructively sceptical and open-minded people regardless of who they like to vote for, or what their views on Brexit or the NHS or climate change or anything else might be. Just my 2p.
As a conservative who has not voted Conservative since they ousted Maggie I completely agree Andy.
LS should avoid party politics period.
Anyway, let’s face it, Party politics is now pointless since we have 4 (count ’em) massively left-wing, massively corrupt, socialist, greenie Parties in competition for who can ruin the country quickest?!
No. We have a choice of puppet to suppress us, on behalf of those who really wield the power.
There really are no prizes for this sort of playground stupidity and political illiteracy. It would be good not to have Covidiot-like dumbness here as well as everywhere else.
So speaks an idiot socialist. Just look at what happens in ALL socialist countries and grow up!
And it is we who shall be ruined, not the country.
When this is over, the water will be cleaner, the land will be greener, the sky bluer, and the roads will offer freer passage to Bentleys and Maybachs.
And my arse will still emit methane
They are all utterly corrupt anyway. None of the existing main parties are worth even voting for.
Absolutely agree. This campaign must be politically and ideologically neutral. We have one objective which unites us: to be liberated from Covid tyranny in all its forms and to regain our liberties. All other matters can be debated elsewhere.
I very much fear that the “hammer blow”, delivered by the electorate, has fallen squarely upon the lockdown sceptics and those opposed to mass medical experimentation (usually, but incorrectly, known as universal vaccination).
Our little, fat, dictator has moved that much closer to being unstoppable.
Agreed, bozo will merely be encouraged in his lunacy by the Hartlepool result.
I suspect (and I hope I’m wrong because all my siblings have had the concoction jabbed into them) that their view will change when the true effects of the ‘jabs’ are seen. If I’m right, this time next year they’ll be calling for his head on a platter
I don’t agree. The Labour party is palpably more lockdown obsessed and yet they seem to have been rejected. Boris Johnson had said things like “take it on the chin” and “let the bodies pile up” and has done little to placate the NHS hero worshippers other than offer platitudes, yet they STILL voted for him.
It seems to me more like a devil you know moment.
What I’m ultimately saying is that it doesn’t indicate the public mood on the subject of lockdowns. It doesn’t mean the electorate is covidian.
I see your point, but, on balance, reject it.
I believe that the electorate, largely, sees BJ as the strong man who has been delivering results / winning. So, while a Labour vote may, technically, have indicated a desire for slightly more severe lockdown, the fact there wasn’t one is very cold comfort to us.
It’s an interesting coincidence that the latest tranche of bad AZ news was released just after everyone had voted.
It’s very simple – an electorate dim enough to swallow Tory propaganda was, in large part, dim enough to punch itself in the head.
Starmer proved the old wisdom that abandoning intelligence and trying to steal your opponents clothes when they hold the cards is also a reflection of
Welcome to the UK in the Dim Ages.
Good point let’s hope and pray you’re correct.
Regardless of what you might think of Farage, you only need to look at what happened at South Thanet, the underhand and completely open way the Tories cheated the result and kept it. Anything remotely resembling ‘opposition’ will never step foot in westminster.
“underhand and completely open” ???
Isn’t the allocation of electoral spending, between local (candidate) budgets and national budgets, arbitrary?
At the time of the 2015 General Election, UKIP was 90+% Nigel Farage. Hence, a vast proportion of UKIP’s electoral spending had the direct effect of advancing Farage’s candidacy in South Thanet.
Nigel Farage was the reason Nigel Farage didn’t win the South Thanet seat. His raising of accountancy issues was merely to distract himself, and others, from that.
Sad but true, glad to say luckily we had an Independent in our local election so voted for him. First time I’ve done that since the May debacle.
Queue ‘highly concerning Indian variant’ enters Britain media narrative for next 3 weeks before announcing delay to 21st June freedoms……
Queue?
Cue 🙂
Had my weekly update from Shropshire health authority yesterday and following 2 weeks showing 3 Covid? hospital cases and 1 death and 1 hospital case and zero deaths respectively; on yesterday’s “missive”, the hospital cases and death columns had disappeared entirely (strange, that) and replaced with the average age for infection (35) which I don’t believe for 1 second.
Now if I was suspicious, I would say that now there are no hospital cases or deaths, the latest attempt to frighten us is to say that the average age of Covid infection in Shropshire is THIRTY “BLOODY” FIVE!!!!
PULL THE “BLEEDIN”OTHER ONE!!!
With apologies to Eastenders.
“Just 46,000 people had coronavirus in England on any given day last week..”
Presumably what they meant was just 46,000 people had a positive test last week, a proportion of which would be false positives.
OK – you’re a Tory, Toby Young. We’ve all got weaknesses. And I guess you’d still quite like a pat on the head from Mr Toad, judging by your last sentence.
But in the end, you’ve got to choose truth or placating the devil. There’s no half way, and this situation does mean ditching the party politics that got us to this point – for which the Tories objectively have to take the majority of blame.
So have a look at the ‘vaccines’ with open eyes a little more, and do stop publishing crap analysis about the Covid ‘cases’ and ‘R numbers’ that are purely fictional.
Labour by pushing for sooner, harder, longer in opposition must share that blame. It meant bozo could not relax his position on lockdown, if he even wanted to, for fear of Starmer gloating ‘we told you so’ if it all went wrong.
I have never tried to make excuses for Labour under Starmer. Stop trying to do so for the Tories.
This is a Tory shit-show, even if Labour has been pathetic.
End of.
It’s not a Tory shit show, it’s an international establishment shit show. I’m not even a Tory and I can see that the Labour party loves this whole debacle and the Tories contain more MPs who are against it than any other party.
I’m unclear exactly whom you intend by “international establishment”, so I’m not going to contradict you on that.
However, I don’t hesitate to declare you wrong on “shit show”. We’ve actually witnessed a master class in psychological manipulation. I’m astounded that it’s gone so well for them.
What’s truly taking place is an operation, by a relatively small group, of extremely powerful people, to mitigate the impact of the great mass of humanity upon the resources they (the group) wish to enjoy.
By “shit show” I wasn’t implying there’s nobody steering this ship. Although I think the ship is still to a great extent adrift.
By “international establishment” I refer to the 1% and their cronies, the banks, pharmaceutical companies, corporate chains, brainwashed cross-party politicians etc. The list goes on, but none of them know borders and they don’t operate in a partisan way other than doing whatever gets them money, power or recognition.
Yes, I thought you were probably referring to rather an informal subset of the (global) population.
I perceive a high degree of co-ordination and planning. I cannot believe that individual pursuance of self-interest could engender the course of events we’re witnessing, in one country, never mind damned near all of them. I cannot offer any hard proof, but it’s entered the territory of “obvious”.
I think the superficially shared cause is ‘green’, but the real agenda is depopulation.
My 2c.
“the Labour party loves this whole debacle”
The Labour Party has actually been shedding members massively over this since the right wing establishment alternative to the Tory manchild took over.
The failure of Labour to oppose has been inexcusable.
But the right has been in government for 40 years – and this is where we’ve ended up – with a Tory government throttling democracy and imposing a police state. All the politically illiterate fantasizing about ‘the left’, ‘socialism’, ‘communism’ doesn’t alter the hard facts about where prime responsibility lies.
In fact, the mechanisms for this – the freeing up of global capital – lies firmly at the door of the free marketeers.
Rick
I notice from some of your comments on other threads that you still don’t understand how to apply Relative Risk and Absolute Risk.
Let me try to make it clear for you.
You cannot know the overall Absolute Risk unless you know how many people will be infected. You certainly can’t calculate an estimate for Absolute Risks from a trial after just a few weeks.
Pfizer used the endpoint of 170 events (infections) because at that point the results gave them sufficient statistical confidence that the vaccine would offer at least 50% protection.
Your estimate for AR would likely have changed after a few more weeks. In fact Pfizer did provide results from an earlier endpoint. While RR was on both occasions, your estimate for AR would have increased.
Oh , and do me a favour, cut out the insulting remarks. I have a degree in mathematics and taught statistics quite successfully to undergraduate students.
Given its complete irrelevance to the thread, that looks like cyberbullying.
I’m fed up being told that I’ve no idea about statistics by someone who…… clearly has no idea about statistics.
I’ve let it pass several times but enough is enough.
Well I do, and you are incorrect. Your thesis entirely depends on what ‘might’ have happened if they had kept the trial results going for longer. But they didn’t, they published based on what they had. On that basis the absolute figures for immunity and transmission were about 1%.
If you believe differently produce your numbers here now.
The Pf drug trial calculating a 95% relative efficacy is pure marketing nonsense.
Article by Peter Doshi, associate editor, The BMJ
https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/04/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-we-need-more-details-and-the-raw-data/
They left out 3410 people with “suspected COVID” but which didn’t have a positive PCR test.
“ 3410 total cases of suspected, but unconfirmed covid-19 in the overall study population, 1594 occurred in the vaccine group vs. 1816 in the placebo group.”
So throughout this year the Gov used the line that the “False negative” Rate is so high that they are more “concerned” with missing “possible infections” (ie a false negative) So they accept the vast false positives numbers (in ~100 million tests!) as “died within 28 days”
Yet here they just ignore the extra ~3500 suspected CV cases (which would reduce the efficacy in the trial to a “relative” 19%.
Below the minimum threshhold set to even approve any vaccine.
Yes, but why are they shedding members? Many Labour supporters I know don’t like Starmer because he isn’t looney enough on covid. Yes, I realise Starmer is a right wing establishment puppet, but that’s not the only reason the Labour party is down the drain. I supported Labour under Corbyn, but then I grew completely disillusioned when he didn’t stand up to the anti-semitism smears. It also dawned on me that he wasn’t really all that left wing anyway and that his policies didn’t amount to much more than a) another unsustainable hot housing of the economy, b) the theft of wealth from the third world under the guise of taxing the super wealthy, c) an unhealthy infatuation with identity politics. The fact is however that this childish argument of continual accusations and denials around “socialism” or “capitalism” is flawed to begin with. It’s undeniable that we live in a society with socialist institutions that rotted from within. Blaming “capitalists” for that when all they did was circle like vultures is delusional. The system (in the west) is most certainly not “capitalist” any more than “socialist”. It’s a flabby and pathetic post-imperial rump state used to living well in excess… Read more »
Keir Starmer is in no way right-wing
So why does he shill for the profit of the 1%? Why does he not oppose the interests of private profit in state institutions?
Also, why does the “right wing” establishment seem to bizarrely have and go along with known communists and Trotskyists? It’s long been known that places like Oxford were hot beds of communist intellectuals. Why does SAGE count them amongst its members? Well, it’s because politics is a dirty business and Marxism is a theory as true to the right as the left whether one wishes to “enact” it or “fight” it. Two wings balance the bird so it flies (Boris Johnson’s own words!). As well as that it’s well known that communists will back the other side simply to cause instability. The Revolutionary Communist Party backed UKIP for a reason. Lenin also turned to the New Economic Policy for a reason!
Anyone who thinks politics is black and white is naive and understands nothing about power.
You’ve made some very good points, many of which I have not had the time or patience to spend spelling out to Rick in his many outbursts in response to criticism of communism/socialism in general. I would expand by asking; if the Tories really are what would normally be identified as right-wing, why have they completely crushed small business, competition and any aspirations of enterprise? In the time they’ve been in power they have unquestionably perpetuated what was started by Tony Blair, who inconveniently admitted to being a full-blown Trotskyite not long ago. They cranked the political dial to eleven for identity politics. Under the Tories, we’ve seen the unhindered rise of Marxist movements like BLM, the demonisation of Christianity and Christian values and festivals, the introduction of gay marriage, the MeToo feminist (feminism is itself cultural Marxism) movement that was also allowed to cross the pond… this is all ‘progressive’ socialist left-wing politics whether you agree with them or not. Political correctness, above all, is a progressive socialist authoritarian control system – introduced by Tony Blair then embraced at the first instance by the Tory Heir To Blair. It has without question mushroomed in the time the Tories took… Read more »
To answer your question relatively simply (I’m sure plenty of people could write a book on it) I’d argue that Blair was a fascist, in the true full blown sense i.e. the union of business and state, and that he was the first person in that capacity to simultaneously be PM and leader of the Labour Party. He successfully fused socialist propaganda (dogma) with private interests and government. Since then the Tory party, beginning with Cameron, has attempted to compete with it on its own progressive terms fearing a genuine revolution against the “conservative establishment”. This has culminated in this sentimental totalitarian fire sale we are witnessing now. They are attempting to outdo the progressives at progressiveness while taking all the chips to themselves with a transfer of wealth upwards. They are still “right wing” in that they favour profit at all costs for a small cabal, but they are using left wing progressive ideology to placate the opposition. I don’t believe the adversarial system is really adversarial. They are all elitists vying to play public opinion. Remember Blair said he admired Thatcher. One could maybe argue that Thatcher achieved the fusion of business and government, but she failed to… Read more »
I still prefer the puppet explanation: all governments are forced to pursue the interests of the unidentified / unrecognised, elite, group, whatever connection with the group individual politicians had before being “elected”.
As you’ve mentioned “commoners and ethnic minorities” in the royal family, were you aware that Meghan Markle is a direct descendant of both William the Conqueror and Alfred the Great?
Free marketeers? Lockdown is communist.
Granted, there is little here worthy of the term “free market”, but the fact remains that the PRIVATE assets of the 1%, who are almost all PRIVATE individuals, are being greatly increased by means of this “crisis”. Government is operating on the behalf of private interests and not those of either the public or government itself.
Totalitarianism is not communism any more than commerce is capitalism. Please learn what your words mean.
Obviously the Tories are the party of government and they must bear primary responsibility for the folly and evil, but “this is a Tory shit-show” implies there is something uniquely Tory about it. Perhaps that’s not what you meant, but that’s not how it comes across. They have put their unique stamp on how it has been mismanaged here, as Labour would have done, and as other governments of all supposed political stripes around the world have done.
Kim Jong Johnson is entirely to blame for his own Branch Covidian communist doomsday cultism.
Just look across the Bristol channel at the rapist’s old man.
..and, it needs to be said – stop implicitly backing the authors of what you’ve said you oppose.
Decide whether you’re a sceptic or a greaser.
Any article that has any attempt to talk about “cases” or R number without immediately ripping into the lunacy of the the vast number of false positives driving this whole charade just gets binned. Not worth reading.
LDS has been like that since about sept last year.
Yeah, Toby, how good is that,eh: one socialistic, totalitarian Party beating the shit out of another totalitarian, socialistic Party!?
Nothing ‘socialistic’ about it in either case. It’s a fuckwit misuse of terminology which I regularly see from those trying to distance and make excuses for the Tories.
It’s actually a triumph for a takeover by the establishment.
Your understanding of what is socialism puts you right at the bottom of the class. Just fo and go back to the Guardian where you belong.
Goodness what a brilliant job the psyops has been. Rule number one, split your enemy, get them fighting amongst themselves about meaningless concepts. Left, Right, socialist, far right, communist, nazi. Labels that mean nothing in this world. Its totalitarian for sure, its based on biosecurity fears for sure, its aimed at new capitalism of resource constraint for sure. Does it use ‘green’ ‘climate emergency’ fears for sure.
But its not ‘socialist’, its not ‘communist’ , its not ant easy ‘ism’ or ‘ist’, the nearest to recent history is fascist, in that it combines the state with corporate greed and control.
Its Brave New World enacted for the benefit of the planet where we will all be happy. The only problem is who defines ‘happy’ and ‘all’ probably means a fraction of the current size of the population.
Nailed it!
Lockdown is communist.
I understand there are nearly 2000 hospitals in the UK (ok some are specialist hospitals) but that makes 1 covid patient per 2 hospitals. How will the NHS cope!
I’ve just endured an hour-long board meeting at work (video conference from home) where the team, each and every member, moaned about how ill they got from the first jab. One of them is still unwell weeks later. I asked if any of them had heard of the Yellow Card report and none of them had heard of it.
The subject only came up because some guy was excitedly eager to tell everyone he is due to get his second jab tomorrow. Amazingly, despite hearing how ill it made the others (one said he felt like he had the flu and was off his feet for at least a week) this guy was still bursting with enthusiasm… He actually said the words: “I’m just waiting to get my super-powers!”
I defiantly said I’ve not had it, don’t want it. There was a long, long silence 😆
Indeed. A lot of people aren’t very bright, I fear.
I was fascinated that all these people were not ill, but they made themselves ill by getting the jab. The team leader spoke of suggestion that the 2nd jab is worse than the 1st one which made a couple of people groan.
Government fear-induced self-punishment… it’s like religious self-flagellation.
Given the idea that these vaccines are potentially dangerous in terms of vascular damage and repeat use it doesn’t bode well that the 2nd would be worse.
No-one has bothered asking me at work. Possibly the word has gone round and they know the answer. People love to post on our Intranet when they are getting jabbed. When it and general coronabollocks comes up on Teams calls I just wander off to make myself a cup of tea and come back when they are ready to talk about work.
Modernity. Oh, the dangerous triviality!
I personally heard from someone who had an pulmonary embolism after Jab1 and still went back for Jab2.
We need a thinning out of the herd anyway, too many idiots!
Nasty; I know someone who had a pulmonary embolism, caused by a deep vein thrombosis, caused by a minor injury (nothing to do with medical trials). Spent a bit of time in hosp with enhanced oxygen, and was on ‘rat poison’ for a while after. Looking on the bright side, it’s not as bad as a temporary stroke, or anything like that, if the clot goes a different way; sad.
Toby hasn’t got it yet.
Mr Toad can’t reduce restrictions before Sage’s OK, or drop the fear talk, or stop the soon coming winter imprisonment talk until the children and pregnant women have been jabbed.
And the whole population has been jabbed again and signed up for rna passports.
And we have all agreed that natural immunity was a stupid and selfish idea.
Pharma immunity good, natural immunity bad.
Our pharma, which art well above the bottom line,
Forgive us our trespasses,
As we report on those who trespass against thee,
Now and forever, amen.
Ah, the “R” rate. A trip down memory lane. It was fashionable once as measure of how much trouble we were in, until it fell to a safe level at which time it was no longer important.
The “R” rate, how nostalgic that seems now.
I think maybe it is time for a ‘Red Pill’ movement to begin. Basically anyone who subscribes to the ‘Red Pill’ ethos will not expect any person in their company to abide by the ridiculous covid/lockdown edicts, and vice-versa. Basically, to live like a free human, pre-2020. This could even be expanded out to businesses, pubs, hospitality etc. And such that anyone entering the premises will be left to their own devices and not be expected to dress in hospital theatre attire. Maybe even a Red Pill logo could be used to inform anyone that this is a free human zone?
This endless lockdown is grinding me down.
I moved back to England to take advantage of the social and cultural life. Lockdown has put an end to all that, so all I’m left with is atrocious traffic, dreadful parking, and petty little shits bossing me around every chance they get.
I’m in “I hate everyone” mood today. I wish I weren’t. I’d like to tell myself that come June 21, a mere forty-five days from now, this whole nightmare will be over. But of course, that’s not going to happen. There are going to be fucking masks, and tests, and social-distancing, and all the bullshit – probably for the rest of my life.
Even if this cult sticks around I think this society will collapse in not so very long.
Message to Toby Young: Prime Minister Kim Jong Johnson is a great fat communist fraud. That is why he is needlessly prolonging lockdown.
Bozo Bunter pay attention to data? It was just a phrase he used because he liked the Latin word in it, it didn’t mean anything to him. He and his cabal of incompetents will tell themselves that their election success was all due to their lockdown policies and the tossers will believe it as their gospel truth. Such is the power of Groupthink.
Maybe the reason Johnson won’t pay any attention to the data is that because he also knows (the same as us) that it’s completely untrustworthy! It has been manipulated so much in order to scare the devil out of people that it’s pretty much meaningless?
What sense can we even make of the studies showing that the vaccines have been helpful? As the proper journalism on here has shown they are not giving us the full picture either.
Mass media are part of the group I call Adversaries.
So what, we’ll still be under full house arrest in October.
As a lifelong Tory voter, I voted for our Freedom Alliance candidate. I will never again vote for a Party that has swung more from its Conservative roots than I could ever have conceived possible. They are all Globalist puppets.
I had no one to vote for except the usual dross so I wrote NONE on the ballot.
USA TV news did a 15 minute clip reporting how many people have died from the jab in the USA.
Tucker Carlson.
In a 3-4 month period nearly 4000 people died.
Compare that to ~130-200 who die annually from 190 million doses of regular flu vaccine every year.
20x- 30x as many deaths.
All data from the USA Vaer database.
They also state that according to the CDC less than 1% of all adverse events get reported.
What are the chances UK media will report a story like this?
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6252794642001#sp=show-clips
Reuter’s News….You have DOUBLE the rate of blood clots after Jab.
The Headline says
“ Denmark, Norway study finds SLIGHTLY raised blood clot rates after Astra COVID shot”
However In the article it says
“ Results showed
59 blood clots in the veins, compared with 30 expected equating to 11 excess events for every 100,000 vaccinations. ”
59 vs 30 is basically double the risk than the normal population,
not SLIGHTLY
Secondly
59 blood clots per 100k people is higher than the rate of infection of CV in the UK even believing the Gov massively inaccurate PCR test.
PROBABLY AT LEAST TRIPPLE THE CURRENT INFECTION RATE.
And that’s infection not death.
So you are vastly more likely to die from the blood clot than the Vid
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/denmark-norway-study-finds-slightly-raised-blood-clot-rates-after-astra-covid-2021-05-05/
Could be that ‘the cure’s worse than the disease’ for many, apparently. Incidentally, the graph on display looks good, but how accurate is it? Diagnosis of causes of death last winter might not stand up in court, if there is ever a proper legal case. Strong suspicion that there has been a degree of ‘transition’ on paper from other illnesses, if you compare the stats with 5 year averages, after all.
On the issue of increased risk of blood clots, It occurred to me that there could be other ways of reducing it (apart from not using it at all), such as having a shot of whisky every night etc. Loads of places where that can be found, e.g. https://www.webmd.com/heart-disease/news/20000426/moderate-alcohol-prevent-blood-clots I’m not recommending dishing out spirits in tandem with the jabs, but you never know!
In our house there is almost nothing a small tot of brandy can’t cure