Okay, that’s a slightly misleading headline because the SAGE modeller in question, Dr Mike Tildesley, who works as a sooth-sayer at the University of Warwick, didn’t actually say that. In an interview with Freddie Sayers for UnHerd, he says he and his colleagues who’ve been producing models for SAGE under-estimated the efficacy of the vaccines and over-estimated the extent to which people would return to normal after restrictions were eased. And for that reason, they almost certainly over-estimated the impact that unlocking on June 21st would have had on infections, hospitalisations and deaths. Indeed, we know their models were wildly pessimistic because if you compare the number of hospital admissions the models were predicting for round about now they are about three times higher than actual hospital admissions – and that’s the number they were predicting if the Government didn’t unlock on June 21st. Regular readers will recall that Glen Bishop pointed out in Lockdown Sceptics that the Government’s court astrologers had underestimated the efficacy of the vaccines when it published the models it was relying on when it postponed the unlocking a few weeks ago.
Here are some choice quotes from Mystic Mike Dr Tildesley:
Underestimated vaccine efficacy
I think the vaccine efficacies throughout have been slightly underestimated, shall we say, by the modelling groups, we are actually find that the vaccines are much more effective than previously we thought they would be. Now when these models are parameterised, the vaccine efficacy data came through from Public Health England, so we’re not making up these values, we are using the best estimates of values that are coming through from those on the ground that have their estimates of them.
Overestimated behavioural change
I suspect this is something else that perhaps some of these models have slightly overestimated as to what we might expect that we’ll do in terms of the R numbers. This is partly because of people’s behaviour. So just because controls have relaxed, it looks like looking at the data that actually people haven’t gone back to ‘normal’ in terms of what we might have expected prior to the pandemic. So people are still being a little bit more cautious. Maybe they’re not going to the pub in the way that they were, say, back in January 2020. And that, obviously has some implications upon these forecasts that when these models were done.
Why July 19th should go ahead as planned
Looking at the data, looking at possible admissions and deaths, there’s nothing at the moment that really worries me. And I think if we are going to get back to normal, we’ve really got to do it over the summer, when the virus is less likely to transmit anyway. Otherwise I think we’re going to be in a situation where it’s going to be really hard. So I’m hopeful 19th of July does go ahead as planned.
Worth watching in full.
Stop Press: The Telegraph‘s Science Editor Sarah Knapton has written a story based on the UnHerd interview.
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Clowns.
Present honest facts, let people decide their own risk, the end.
World Economic Forum proposes psychological plan to overcome ‘vaccine hesitancy’ CHILLINGLY EVIL
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/world-economic-forum-proposes-psychological-plan-to-overcome-vaccine-hesitancy
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Did the interviewer by any chance ask him to explain how it is that other countries with less vaccination and less restrictions have also seen a dramatic drop in “cases” and “covid deaths”?
The gene therapies did sh*t all.
It was the sun what dunnit, and they underestimated only that one.
A good analysis of Delta and the vaccines inefficiency could be found here today, in German.
https://www.achgut.com/artikel/neue_daten_zur_impf_abwaegung
Slightly misleading article.
For the over 50s UNvaccinated group IFR was 4% – 3 times that of the vaccinated over 50s.
The large number of unvaccinated young people distort the statistics. Clearly an unvaccinated person has a higher risk of being infected than a vaccinated person and a higher risk of a more serious outcome.
I sympathise that down votes don’t really cut the mustard.
But you are wrong – any serious testing has now been blown out of the water (deliberately?) – but we do know that deadly ARR.
Indeed. Portugal and Bulgaria being very good examples.
Tut tut! That’s a little harsh and unfair of you Julian. Come on, stop being a clever-cloggs, and just play nicely.
[may contain traces of sarcasm]
‘When prophecy fails’
It’s a cult
Take his salary and pension. See how long he wants lockdowns to continue.
Maybe they’re not going to the pub in the way that they were, say, back in January 2020.
Of course we bloody haven’t because in many cases it is a ball ache and we are unable to go to the pub in any way resembling January 2020, ie, normal conditions. These so-called experts have not got the first idea how normal people live and interact.
Took the words out of my mouth DAEW; was going to post EXACTLY the same points. Well said.
“Look, see, we are honest people, us at SAGE – we can admit it when we make mistakes. Honest, guv. So you can trust us now, right? You don’t need to ask us any more questions, OK? Thanks a lot.”
Nothing like a repentant sinner, except for the one who isn’t. A bit like the murderer of a child. “Why did you kill the child”? “Because I knew he’d die anyway”. “When”? “When he’d be about 90 years old”.
Cretinous and criminal.
Well of course they haven’t gone back to normal. You’ve spent 18 months scaring them. My 7 year old daughter was crying after school today because another girl kissed her and she’s now terrified she’s “got the virus”.
Also, pubs are nowhere near back to normal. I was in one last week to watch the footie and you’re made to wear a mask when you’re not seated, table service only, and you have to sit at your own table. No big huddles inside allowed. Things are open but the restrictions ruin the atmosphere.
What have they done to our children? Will they ever be able to assess risk objectively?
Shhh! ,Just remember to ‘follow the black magic’.
That was the phrase, I believe.
Exactly- we met up for a family birthday last month and it was sterile and soulless. Wait outside to be allowed in, scan this, sanitise, follow me directly to the table, don’t move, don’t push the tables closer, mask up if you move, go and pick your carvery and then sit back down and we’ll bring it to you, etc. We had to virtually shout across the tables to have anything approaching a conversation- no birthdays hugs, no buying a round, utterly pointless exercise. It’s my birthday this month and traditionally we go to my favourite burger bar in Sheffield, (Uncle Sam’s), and about 15-16 of us usually gather around a couple of tables pushed together but of course that is not permitted by the Proper Authorities any more, so I’ve told everyone not to bother- I really don’t see what fun it would be, (fun?). I feel sorry for the bar as they must be really hurting after all this time, but what’s the point of going out to celebrate if you can’t actually celebrate?
Good point well made and very sad indeed.
But this way you let them win. I think we know by now that this lockdown and ongoing restrictions are, partly, so that small businesses, pubs etc, will close down and get hoovered up by the big corporations who will provide the goods and services instead. Corporate Marxism. Why do you think government is so unmoved by the personal tragedies of those who have lost everything they worked so hard for? It’s the globalist plan.
I hate the stupid restrictions too but, if anything, I’m eating out and visiting pubs more than before just to spite the b8stards and help keep them going.
I sympathise with that, and we were doing the same last year, but I’ve just had enough. Every time you try to do something like this you are reminded that most people are scared witless, (you should have seen some of the reactions when we hugged outside the pub), and that you are supposed to be eternally grateful for these small crumbs. I’m not saying we won’t go out as a family, (3-4 of us for tea sort of thing), and we still visit the cafes as we did, but the idea of a ‘safe’ birthday bash just leaves me cold. I think they are so unmoved because, as has been pointed out above, they haven’t the first clue how ‘we’ live and they really don’t care- never have, never will.
I think it is even more sinister than that.
In the 1920’s, in Soviet Russia, Stalin declared war on the Kulaks who were prosperous peasants. People who had, by their own efforts achieved some level of prosperity above those of the rest.
Naturally they were characterised as ‘exploitative’, ‘harsh task masters’ and so forth.
The real reason was that they were independent and Stalin could not stand that.
In the same way, small businesses are being destroyed in this country and for the same reason. Big groups are fewer in number and easier to control; small businesses are independent and can tell the government where to get off. Also, small businesses grow and become bigger businesses and have some clout against politicians, civil servants, and public sector jobsworths generally.
Essentially, this government wishes to eliminate independence.
I used to have this attitude, but I now feel that it’s the businesses themselves that need to organise and fight back, not the customers. If the owners can’t see what is going on now, they never will and quite frankly deserve what’s coming.
Yep, I refuse to go to pubs until they take away ALL restrictions. NO QR codes, NO masks, NO antisocial distancing, NO hand sanitiser. Until then they can go and stick it where the sun don’t shine. PERIOD.
I totally endorse what everyone is saying.
We’re breaking a journey at a lovely small hotel in the Borders at the moment – one we’ve known for a long time.
No – it isn’t the bloody same. By a long chalk, despite the effort to keep it so.
Being met by a masked face isn’t ‘normal’; perspex reminders that people are dangerous isn’t ‘ normal’; the lunatic idea that viruses are out to get you above 5ft isn’t ‘ normal’.
For the business owner, accumulating debt is not ‘normal’; being terrified that the Gestapo will close you down isn’t ‘normal’!
… And that’s just for starters.
‘For the business owner, accumulating debt is not ‘normal’; being terrified that the Gestapo will close you down isn’t ‘normal’!’ This is the ONLY reason I wear a mask, (big hippy scarf actually- makes me look like Robert Plant…), because they are my friends and I don’t want to put them in a position where they have to refuse to serve me or risk being dobbed in by the local Stasi- and believe me they would…
Pfft. SAGE under-estimated the efficacy of the unnecessary vaccines against the grossly exaggerated effects of a virus.
Don’t mention it, cocker, of course the people will let you off. Now don’t worry about it and put it behind you.
Just bear in mind – we’ll never forget, we’ll never forgive.
We will remember.
Can someone explain to me how come everyone has suddenly forgot everything about the 21st and about the 5th? Or about “lockdowns are the nuclear option”? Or about “two weeks to flatten the curve” or however long that is? Everyone seems to talk about the 19th like this has been agreed in March of 2020 and the government has never backtracked on any of their promises.
I don’t disagree with that but I think there seems to be a change in the wind at the moment. For what reason I don’t know and no one is providing any analysis on this. My question is the ‘consensus’ is that this will be the change but the question I have is why? What has changed and what is the reason for this ‘optimism’? My only thinking is they are ready for the next stage be that vax passports qr codes or whatever but the feeling is different.
It’s probably media driven in some way. Someone has decided that they cannot keep up restrictions for long, because it is getting incredibly hard to convince people of a virus that no longer exists. But they cannot just come out and say it’s all over and we can get back to our lives, because if the virus should return, they’ll be the ones to blame. So they shift public opinion to favour an end to the lockdown, they make it seem as though they were coerced by the public, so that if the virus does return they can say “we told you so, but you want to end the lockdown”.
The old trick of planting an idea into someone’s head so that they believe they came up with it on their own.
Yep- old salesman’s trick, the ‘no shower’ option. You give people a choice, they pick something, and they think they’ve made the choice, when in fact they’ve done nothing of the sort- you’ve just given them a few variations of the same thing and it never occurs to them that they could actually just say ‘no’ to the whole thing. ‘Which colour shower- red or blue?’ You choose the colour but still buy the same shower, instead of saying ‘no shower’.
Spot on.
‘False choice’ we used to call it when I did sales training years ago. That short course I took when I was just 18 probably helped me understand a lot of government propaganda over the years!
There is a consensus between Toad Hall and the weasels, in the wake of Hancock, that they need to give the gullible people good news for a bit. That will increase the gullible people’s faith in them, ready for autumn’s crackdown to promote the top up stabs.
The weasels always knew their predictions were nonsense. They also understand seasonality perfectly well. Their only function is to terrify and subjugate. Note that their “backtracking” sticks to the lying narrative – the stabs work better than expected (!) , yey vaccines! and it is by not going out and further weakening the economies of the West that the virus can be controlled.
They have plenty of new lies ready for August.
Don’t worry. Nothing has changed.
vaccine efficacy??? where please!
Didn’t you know? Tut! About 1% absolute risk reduction. Massive!
He might not have actually said it, but we have been saying it for well over a year now.
World Economic Forum proposes psychological plan to overcome ‘vaccine hesitancy’ CHILLINGLY EVIL
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/world-economic-forum-proposes-psychological-plan-to-overcome-vaccine-hesitancy
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday 10am meet fellow lockdown sceptics, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.
Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
We have very little means of judging vaccine efficacy (with a major thumbs down for safety).
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1605/rapid-responses
Bear in mind this time last year cases had gone right down without any vaccination – before, of course, the bogus Hancock PCR testing service got into full swing.
About the vaccines they have not got the faintest clue:
they last/they need top-ups
they protect against variants/they don’t protect against variants
Anything which will manipulate people into having more of them. We are in the hands of mountebanks.
Yes. Yesterday LS included a link to a US site giving case studies of people with vaccine injuries. I have no way of checking if it is real, but I guess Tucker Carlson will be doing – or has done just that. If true, it is mind blowing, because it includes people who were injured In The Pfizer and Moderna Trials.
It paints a very believable picture of US hospitals being very unwilling to ascribe effects to the vaccines, and being baffled by the neurological damage which is being presented to them.
C19 vax reactions dot com
It’s OK to say that “after” lockdown extension, because they got what they wanted. Did he also say, that the child-like prediction over the las 16 months have always been pessimistic?
I predict that there will be a lot more of these ‘confessions’ from so-called experts when all of the nonsense we have experienced since March last year is finally outed for the con that it really is.
I have been surprised at the number of seemingly intelligent people who have been successfully brainwashed by the Government and media into believing their rubbish narrative.
“No shit, Sherlock!” springs to mind…