Reported positive Covid tests hit a new recent high yesterday of 48,553, confirming for many that their fears of a big exit wave are coming to pass.
However, Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE Covid Study app and Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, had another message: according to his data, infections are already peaking.
ZOE data for July 11th (data from the app is always four days behind) showed 32,920 symptomatic infections in the U.K., and this appears to have peaked (R is currently estimated to be around 1) and may already be starting to drop (see above).
Why is this so different to the new daily ‘cases’ reported by the Government, which show no obvious sign of peaking?
One possibility is that the ZOE data is a false dawn and the rise in reported infection numbers in the last four days will come through on ZOE in the coming days. However, the Government dashboard is already showing new infections declining in Scotland, suggesting the nationwide peak may be near.
Another possibility is it may be an artefact of the reporting delay. If we look at ‘case’ numbers by specimen date (below) then there seems to be more evidence of slowing towards a peak.
ZOE data provides a breakdown by vaccination status, which shows symptomatic infections in the unvaccinated have been dropping since the start of the month, whereas those in the vaccinated (with at least one dose) continue to surge – though are perhaps slowing towards a peak now.
Professor Spector notes that “new cases in vaccinated people are still going up and will soon outpace unvaccinated cases”. He suggests this is “probably because we’re running out of unvaccinated susceptible people to infect as more and more people get the vaccine”. Another way of putting this is that the unvaccinated are nearing herd immunity.
Oddly, Professor Spector shows no obvious interest in exploring further the implications of his observation. In particular, if the vaccinated are surging while the unvaccinated are dropping, how can either trend be attributed to the restrictions? Clearly the restrictions are not preventing spread, and the drop is a result of reaching herd immunity (as Tim effectively acknowledges). The unvaccinated population has seen this plunge before, of course, both in December and March 2020, so this is not a new thing. It seems to suggest that herd immunity has been reached on two previous occasions and this is more of a topping up, presumably due to the partial immune evasion of the Delta variant.
Prof Spector emphasises that “whilst the figures look worrying… vaccines have massively reduced severe infections and post-vaccination Covid is a much milder disease for most people”.
“The main concern is now the risk of Long Covid”, he says – as though that could possibly justify all the social restrictions, travel constraints, enforced vaccinations and so on that will still be with us after ‘Freedom Day’.
With Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty warning yesterday that restrictions could return as soon as next month, at Lockdown Sceptics we’ll be keeping a close eye on the data.
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Again, you can hate me for saying it, but this can be explained by the rise in numbers of vaccinated people. Either because the tests have a pretty high false positive rate, or because the vaccines are not 100% efficient. Add those two up and they more than enough explain the data. Sure, it’s not a certainty that those are the causes, but it does mean we need to look into this more to understand the cause.
And again, I’d love to know how South Dakota is doing in terms of excess mortality, a state which did not impose restrictions, and which presumably has lower numbers of “vaccinations” than the UK. My own assumption is that they will be better prepared for the coming Winter than us.
Bulgaria has (the last time it was reported which was quite recently) the lowest vaccination rate in Europe. “Cases” and deaths have plummeted even so,
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/bulgaria/
@miketa1957 completely agree, however Bulgaria reached herd immunity the hard way -a massive 2nd winter wave that was the highest in Europe
worse, during this the total death excess toll was **x2** this as of course what little healthcare systems they had (plus a small amount of EU charity) was overwhelmed
No I agree with you. You need to consider they dynamic in relative size of the two groups as well: people (mad people, but whatever) are moving constantly from the unvaccinated to the vaccinated group. Even if it makes no difference if you are vaccinated or not, you will still see more infections in the vaccinated group over time.
These data all need to be shown as a percentage of vaccinated, unvaccinated and partially vaccinated populations overall to actually tell us anything useful.
Yes, the data should be presented as percentages. That they are not presenting the data in this way may indicate that it doesn’t support their agenda, possibly showing a less dramatic but still worrying story about the ineffectiveness of the leaky “vaccines”.
Agreed. Also you really need to break out one jab versus two. Further on in Spector’s video he shows that the positivity rate for one jab is much higher and increasing faster than the positivity rate for two jabs. It is widely accepted that you really need two jabs to get significant protection from the Delta variant.
But not in Israel or Gibraltar which are the only two countries further down the “vaccination” road than the UK…
Sorry – what is not in Israel or Gibraltar?
… which indicates the disconnection of two variables – not causation.
If Dr David Martin is correct in his reporting of a patented Sars Cov from 20 years ago then we are not going to understand the cause until we have hindsight and all the data. Similarly with the vax, patented by Moderna years ago and with who knows what in it currently and potentially very variable….. we are left with juggling balls in the air when trying to fathom this thing. We just have to stick to our guns and say no to the lot.
Indeed, if more than two thirds are fully vaccinated, as the government recently claimed, then the orange curve in the graph above is gong to have a far greater influence on the overall result than the dotted blue line.
What interests me is to what extent it can really be claimed that the vaccinations have made any significant difference, to justify the huge costs, financial, social and in direct harms known and yet to emerge. For that we need a lot more info.
Good point
While I think the experimental vaccines are highly dangerous and it is looking increasing likely that they are ineffective in the long term, we should avoid using incorrect logic to justify that position
What we need to look at are things like
Almost exactly that information is further on in the video. I attach a screen shot.
However, the elephant in the room is the immense discrepancy between the Zoe data and the government daily confirmed cases data. It can’t be down to problems with testing as they both use the same tests to record a positive case. I have always had a lot of faith in the Zoe app and faithfully filled it in each morning, but it is self-reporting and therefore prone to selection bias. So where it conflicts with the official data I tend to favour the official data – which is a shame because I would really like to believe this wave was peaking.
My understanding (someone correct me if I am wrong) is that the Zoe app gets people to record any symptoms they have at any time, then if they get covid-like symptoms they go and get tested. This would be using the tests “correctly”, ie., to confirm (or refute) a diagnosis. If that is right, then the Zoe data is not subject to the obvious problem of mass asymptomatic testing.
That’s also my understanding, though I think that the “case” figures Zoe produces might be based on modelling based on the data – so they look at symptoms and the proportion of those people who have been tested with those symptoms and extrapolate from that.
It’s essentially a measure of the rising and falling hypochondriac population in the country.
That is correct. However, I don’t think it can explain the massive difference. The only reason mass asymptomatic testing would mislead is if there a lot of false positives. Since May UK confirmed cases have gone from about 2,000 a day to about 35,000 and climbing with roughly the same level of testing. It is hard to see how false positives could account for such a sharp increase.
Agreed. One speculation I have (and it is just that, speculation):
Lots of people get tested because they have been pinged or otherwise in contact with someone who might have Covid19. Of those, the majority correctly test negative.
With the arrival of the delta variant, a lot of people who are immune (in the sense that they will not get symptoms, or at least not get significant symptoms) nevertheless get infected (since immunity is not a Star Trek force field) and are infectious, hence an increased proportion of tests are positive.
I think the official line is that we have a very large increase in cases which are not generating nearly the same amount of hospitalisations or deaths as previous waves. This seems to be very similar to what you are saying.
None of the data takes into account the growing number of people who, in the past would have had a hard time throwing a sicky with hay fever or a summer cold. Now they have the perfect weapon.. home testing. It’s rife in schools right now and anybody with at least one eye open can see this happening.
It doesn’t pay to tell obvious porkies :-).
What is this chart supposed to prove?
It shows that testing has remained broadly the same since April and cases have risen. (I don’t understand the beginning – we weren’t doing zero tests back in March! – but that is outside the relevant timescale).
The choice of scales makes it hard to see the very sharp rise in cases but you hardly need a graph to tell you that. .
PCR+ results are interesting academically, but should have no bearing on public health policy. The flaws are startling.
What CTs are being used? Are they the same ones for vaxed and non-vaxed?
Absolutely. There may well be interesting data behind this, but presenting it as an absolute number of positive tests in each of the groups really doesn’t tell us anything. If we draw conclusions an make arguments based on that, we’re going to look a bit silly.
Spector = Bond Villain
Mum tells talkRADIO why her kids won’t be getting Covid jab
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqnZLEUwgjA
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🤡
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How certain can we be of the veracity of all the data that feeds these reports and predictions? I have kept well away from testing but I understand that some tests are done on a DIY basis and the results entered by people themselves, have I got that correct? If so and given the nature of the tests themselves this whole business of assessing infections seems to be built on dodgy foundations. In my opinion we would do better to put more emphasis on the people who need to go into hospital. Witty has said that the NHS looks like it will soon be under pressure again and so if restrictions come back it will be because of NHS covid numbers. Our local N Devon NHS trust had 1 covid patient they then admitted 2 more on one day but still only ended up with 1 patient in hospital at the end of the day! At this stage of this hoo-haa we need a better analysis of what is going on with covid in hospitals, what is the age breakdown of covid patients and how long are they staying in hospital? If people with covid are only staying in hospital… Read more »
Interesting that Mark Harper questioned Sajid Javid about this the other day. He said that policies were being made on dodgy data about those going into hospital already ill with Covid and those who later tested positive while in hospital for something else. Sajid Javid said it was a good question and he would look into it. He clearly did not know that the NHS had already been told that they must now record data in this way.
I believe that Singapore is now looking at outcomes, rather than cases ie is the person with the positive “test” ill enough to go into hospital?
A positive “test” is not a “case”
The elephant in the room; neither LFT or RT PCR tests detect infectiousness, i.e. “live” viral load – even the Government’s own responses to FoI confirm neither test is sufficient on it’s own and requires clinical intervention – judgment, assessment and other test procedures; so why are these criminals allowed to get away with the outright lie associated with the obsessional “cases” mantra. Truly monstrous behaviour which IMHO is now well beyond ” we follow the science/data” rubbish. How to destroy a ” democracy” in one easy lesson; I am conservative small “c” but a fully fledged anarchist and I want a revolution with Gulags.
The fact that after 18 months this key measure – people ill enough to be in hospital with covid symptoms and a confirmed positive test – is not known shows clearly that the government’s interest in actual public health is virtually non-existent.
… as does the refusal to comprehensively test possible cheap solutions for prophylaxis and amelioration at home.
Massive fraud.
Singapore, with the exception of ‘mask mania’, has decided to ‘live with it’ and junk most of the rest.
“Witty has said that the NHS looks like it will soon be under pressure again”
Which, if true, is an admission of the total failure of government and its advisors.
If true (which is like using ‘the length of a piece of string’ as a calibrated measure). This is the one thing that the government can control, and is responsible for, as opposed to fictional ‘control’ of a virus.
A couple of scenarios we could consider..
I don’t know how many of the above have happened around the country, but neither do the official statistics reflect this. Worse, this Zoe app, is like a hypochondriacs crutch. How many are feeding in any kind of symptoms and then testing positive/false positive, or as above “self certified” positive?
The case numbers are absolute garbage. Why are people not outraged at this?
Take a husband and wife: he is expected to test for his work and one day he has a runny nose and gets a positive lfd. She tests and is negative. He gets a PCR test to follow up and it’s positive. That couple now represents two positive cases. If he wonders how he’s doing on day 5 and tests again, that couple could end up with 3 positive cases amongst them.
Since March, people have been advised to lateral flow test twice a week and follow up with a PCR, so now there’s genuinely a bit of summer covid going round, there’s got to be an explosion is case numbers to correspond.
Tim Spector, Gary Lineker…
Garothy Specteker
Absolutely. I used to fill in his app not any longer he’s definitely controlled opposition.
Have they both been in the same room at the same time? Thought not!
Just to clarify, I meant that they look a little similar – nothing more!
Professor Whitty told an online seminar hosted by the science museum on Thursday evening…….:”We are not by any means out of the woods yet on this, we are in much better shape due to the vaccine programme, and drugs and a variety of other things”
Drugs? Is that a slip of the tongue? I thought the vaccines were only licensed for emergency use if there were no other treatments available. Which drugs is he talking about? Ivermectin?
Has he let the cat out of the bag?
Dexamethasone?
Midazolam?
The ‘case’ numbers are unreliable because they chase hotspots etc.
Zoe data is more reliable. New daily symptomatic numbers are up to date and show the peak has plateaued. It is only the R value which lags by 5 days (the R for 5 days ago is number of new people infected today divided by the number of new people infected 5 days ago) . 5 days ago the R value was just below 1.
How reliable is Zoe data? I’ve never gone into how it is supposed to work. Sneezing and sore throat (from which I have suffered twice this summer)have now been added to the list of symptoms for Covid. It used to be called a summer cold.
far from perfect – but in retrospect seems the best
yes, it will confuse with summer colds etc (although technically covid19 is a summer cold – at least the delta variant is)
additionally govt data implies peak reached
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
look at weekly increase % for cases, hospitalisations and deaths
cases lower than the other 2. classic signs of peak reached
Does that mean I’ve had Covid twice then?!!!!
On average a person gets four colds a year. But only a quarter are likely, on average, to be caused by a coronavirus. But to the person they all seem pretty much the same. And no-one at all knows if the RT-PCR test at CT values above 25 picks up all types or not, plus flu and anything else with the odd respiratory disease RNA/DNA. At CTs of 45 ( used extensively in the UK) its likely just to pick up that you are human!
Good Heavens, I’m 80 and I don’t get one, so the others must suffer a lot!
“in retrospect seems the best”
Like Christie was the ‘best’ of serial killers?
There are a lot of colds around at the moment under the guise of Covid.
This is an obvious and important point. ‘Covid-like’ symptoms are no different to typical colds. A positive PCR result does not necessarily mean that your cough, runny nose and sore throat has been caused by SARS-CoV-2. But you will be put down as a case nonetheless.
“Zoe data is more reliable”
A very, very low bar.
Falling in the unvaccinated – well well, fancy that.
What a surprise. Not.
‘vaccines have massively reduced severe infections and post-vaccination Covid is a much milder disease for most people”. Once again assumptions based on very thin ‘evidence’ – maybe natural immunity has reached a tipping point – maybe the elderly and sick who were going to die have died and maybe the virus has evolved to a much milder disease as most viruses do – oh and please don’t mention long bloody covid when hundreds upon thousands of people (reported and unreported) have been injured (some v seriously) by the vaccines – oh and a few thousand (times ten possibly) killed by the vaccines. This is another propaganda machine cum App
Tim Spector said very clearly in his Spectator TV interview that lockdowns didn’t make much difference, and his data shows more clearly than any other that infections were falling before the second two lockdowns started. He would not be drawn on the first as ZOE wasn’t collecting data then.
There was then a lot of complaint from the lockdown fanatics among his supporters saying they wouldn’t continue logging data if he was going to make such heinous comments.
I suspect that to ensure the validity of his data he knows he can’t alienate a lot of his data loggers, even though he knows they are unwittingly proving their own lockdown case to be nonsense.
My guess is that we will here a lot more from Spector in the years to come in enquiries and the like. His data is unrivalled; it is nearly always proved right and is confirmed a couple of weeks later by the ONS. Some of his conclusions are odd but carefully chosen to ensure people keep logging.
“Some of his conclusions are odd but carefully chosen to ensure people keep logging.” Like his support for vaccinating children?
I think his dataset is the best there is. But I deleted his app when he showed his support ‘in principle’ for lockdowns – he just didn’t think the data supported them at the time.
then he started going on about vaccinating children just after his funding got extended
I agree the dataset might be the best of a bad bunch, and I too used the app, though I deleted it when he made the comments about vaxxing kids
The big flaw in this is that ZOE treats all people who have had a vacc the same, without considering whether they had one or two, and whether they had it yesterday or months ago.
Most “cases” are in the 15 to 25 age group. If any have been vaccinated it will have been comparitively recently and so they will not have developed full immunity.
And Zoe is very selective in what they publish as they need to provide propaganda to support a certain narrative. They have the data to properly investigate these things but they choose not to use it if it gives the ‘wrong’ answer.
Zoe had to downgrade their numbers a while back because people were testing positive in the weeks after their first experimental vaccination. Rather than properly investigate this they just swept it under the carpet using some meaningless waffle to explain away what was happening.
Doesn’t surprise me, he’s dodgy think UK Column ran an article about him -they weren’t that impressed.
The data does show a reduced infection rate in the jabbed vs unjabbed — 2/3rds of the population is jabbed (at least one) now so the vax/unvax curve does show about half the infection rate in the jabbed (for now). What is far more interesting is the delay in the two curves in reaching a peak. This can’t be due to differences in virus numbers in the community (as it is a population thing — vaccinated and unvaccinated mix together), and I find Prof Spector’s explanation extraordinary — for a start, if the UK has now run out of unvaccinated to infect they might as well stop jabbing because everyone has got sufficient immunity (and we’ve clearly not reached herd immunity because cases were dropping in unvaccinated while still rising in the vaccinated). The only explanation for the data I can think of is that disease progression is different in the vaccinated. UK Infectious pressure in the UK peaked in the last week of June (as indicated by cases in the unvaccinated peaking at the end of June, as symptoms take a few days to emerge), but a slower disease progression in the vaccinated resulted in symptomatic covid still increasing,… Read more »
Agreed. Those are pretty much the same questions as occurred to me …..
One thought I (and the wife, biologist who has worked in immunology) have had is: Immunity is not a force field that repels viruses a few millimeters away from you body). If you are immune, you still get infected, it is just that you body kills off the virus so quickly that you never notice it, or, maybe you feel a bit “off” for a day or two, that sort of thing.
But, if vaccine induced immunity is in fact less good than natural immunity (seems plausible, the latter activates all the branches of the immune system, and recognises the entire virus, not just one part) then do reinfected vaccinated people themselves become more infectious than those who have natural immunity.
Also, if someone is vaccinated before they have had Covid19, then when they meet the virus, will their immunity rise to the level of those with natural immunity, or will it forever remain less effective.
So many questions, so many areas that are not understood, so little interest.
On https://dailysceptic.org/2021/07/16/news-round-up-128/
Which leaves 59%. Gotta wonder if those are people who where infected, but never knew it.
A useful observation: while some have proposed that the winter respiratory upturn was pushed by vaccination, it appears the vaccinations did not affect the subsequent rate of decline from that winter peak.
https://twitter.com/tonyjsargeant/status/1415571861077995520
Quite.
It looks as though vaccination might influence numbers (cases/hospitalisations/deaths) but doesn’t influence the timescales of each infectious wave.
I suppose this is challenged by the latest data shown by Prof Spector in the original post, which suggests that vaccination might delay the peak of the infectious wave and thus might extend each wave somewhat.
If this latter point is the case we must be careful to not compare the height of each covid wave’s peak, but rather to compare total case load per covid wave (ie, because each covid wave lasts longer cases will be more spread out, compared with the situation with only low numbers of vaccinated)
It’s almost as if trying to develop a vaccine against a cold has been attempted unsuccessfully for the last 40 years
Yes last in a long line of failures
Mum tells talkRADIO why her kids won’t be getting Covid jab
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqnZLEUwgjA
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You are all forgetting that PHE changed the reporting criteria for the infections of the vaccinated only a few weeks ago.
Not as egagrious as the CDC with regard to officially using a different ct number for them only (or do they even do that inofficially now, who knows), but still.
That puts even more lipstick on the vaccinated pig stats.
Garbage in, garbage out.
‘Cases’, schemases, ‘infections’, schminfections.
When are we going to get rid of this Scary Fairy anti-scientific, duff data of casedemic nonsense and get back to reliable chicken bones?
Because ZOE tracks symptomatic infections (what we used to call actual disease) while the plandemic headlines are about positive test results.
Yes important distinction
Given that most infections are asymptomatic or lead to extremely mild symptoms, who gives a monkey’s about the number of these? All that matters is the number of deaths, and this is so low it is almost negligible.
What this means in essence is that the vaccines aren’t working against the Delta variant in the vaccinated but that the immune system in the unvaccinated by contrast does work against it. More sinisterly, it might also mean that the immune system of the vaccinated has been compromised. The restrictions don’t make a difference to infections but that’s been known for a long time
https://mobile.twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1415672088422019078
I realise many people on here will be familiar with this thread but hopefully worth sharing as the current situation in Israel is revealed.
He’s now clearly saying in another thread, that the vaccines do F.A against the Delta
Oh dear good have just glanced at the BBC news app and no surprise they are ramping up the fear three top stories Covid terror tails!! No mention till well down that PHE have issued a hot weather warning!! God forbids they should highlight the Danger of swimming in lakes and rivers or leaving pets and kids in cars oh no! That doesn’t kill only Covid kills!!
Will those posters who add graphs to their comments PLEASE use better resolution. They are mostly fuzzily unreadable on my phone screen and don’t improve on download. Thank you.
Tim Spector, a Professor of Genetics.
THESE AREN’T ILL PEOPLE!!!!
This is just a positive test, end of. You will ALWAYS get a positive PCR test due to minimum false positive rate.
No need for a vaccine. If you get one, fine but it can’t stop you BREATING IN A VIRUS! Therefore you can also test positive.
Everyone needs to get a grip and question the numbers i.e: 50,000+ positive ‘cases’ ok, how many were tested? Where were they tested (hospital etc)? How many of them also have tested ‘positive’ for other respiratory viruses (like common cold)?
We also have no idea how many people usually have a cold/flu virus at any time as we have never tested before so all these numbers have zero frame of reference.
If no one got tested there would be no positive cases and their ruse for these draconian restrictions. STOP GETTING TESTED!!!!
Well said I do not intend to get tested if I get symptoms of something I just take to bed and just keep away from folk till I feel better simple common sense it’s worked for years!!
If the “vaccinated” are getting covid then whatever has been injected into them is by definition not a vaccine.The whole purpose of vaccination is to introduce a small amount of the pathogen to your immune system which then reacts to it, ensuring that you are immune and will not pass it on.God knows what in these covid jabs.
Agreed but it’s worse than that, the “vaccines” fill your body with spike protein which is one of the toxins from the disease. You may overcome this, or you may not, just as with the disease.
Great job lockdown sceptics for keeping an eye on all the information coming in and for asking the questions regarding COVID. Thank you.
Latest round of Australian covid lockdowns announced as beginning of “new world order”
https://www.naturalnews.com/2021-07-16-australian-covid-lockdowns-beginning-new-world-order.html
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Home Schooling – Ex-Primary School Teacher
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ5oS2ejye0
https://www.hopesussex.co.uk/our-mission