Has SARS-CoV-2 Fooled the Whole World?

16 April 2020. Updated 19 April 2020.

This is a paper by Mikko Paunio M.D., M.H.S., an adjunct professor in general epidemiology at the University of Helsinki, Department of Public Health. In the course of his carer he has worked at the University of Helsinki, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the European Commission, the World Bank, and the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health. His current position is Medical Counselor, Ministry of Social Affairs and Health in Finland. You can see a list of his publications here.

Update: Mikko Paunio has written an addendum to his paper, referring to a number of surveys that have been published since he wrote it that seem to support his hypothesis that many more people have been exposed to the virus than the WHO originally estimated, that at least 50% of people infected are asymptomatic and that large cities like New York are close to herd immunity.

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Outbreak-continues-in-NYC

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Sally
Sally
1 month ago

Thank you for publishing this paper.

It is stunning that at this point we are still waiting for serious, systematic estimates of the IFR, of the type attempted here, and that policy makers continue to publicly cite fatality rates that they must know to be false because of the unknown but certainly large number of undiagnosed cases.

Alex
Alex
1 month ago

re. the silverman and washburne analysis – I think things have evolved and the IFR estimate has increased:
https://twitter.com/DanRosenheck/status/1251059513366626310

Still low mind you but 0.1% has been discounted I understand from the above discussion.

Alex
Alex
1 month ago
Reply to  Alex

Also, this thread is interesting:
https://twitter.com/CovModel/status/1248733016425402369

Scottish serological results (which were completely absent from the press!). Similar calculation applied as per above paper.

Mikko Paunio
Mikko Paunio
1 month ago
Reply to  Alex

No, the new Santa Clara serosurvey is bringing it back to low figures.
5. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf

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