In Imperial College’s March 16th paper, Professor Ferguson and his team admit that the suppression strategy will only be effective if it’s kept in place until a vaccine becomes available, which they estimate will be in 18 months:
The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.
We now have a vaccine and the UK has rolled it out faster than any other country in the world apart from Israel. Why, then, haven’t restrictions been lifted?
‘Quest For a Pandemic Pill‘ by Matthew Hutson, The New Yorker, April 6th 2020
‘Global race for coronavirus vaccine could turn into a marathon‘ by Tony Allen-Mills and Andrew Gregory, The Sunday Times, April 12th 2020
‘Coronavirus: Vaccine could be ready as early as September, according to scientist‘, Sky News, April 12th 2020
‘Don’t bank on a coronavirus vaccine, says Sir Patrick Vallance‘ by Ryhs Blakely, The Times, April 20th 2020